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Blazing Bailey

BBOTD Wednesday 31st July

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Last chance saloon time! Goodwood 5.25 - Good Authority 14/1 Ladbrokes This horse has run some really solid races recently and importantly, two of them have been over C&D on what will probably be similar ground. He looks the perfect type for this fast big field handicaps and like a few of the winners today he should come hard and fast at the death. The form looks good, the TS figures & RPR's back up those performances and whilst he was under par LTO (It looked a lot like he was never really put into that race IMO) his trainer hinted at targeting a big race either here or at Ascot after his last win.

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Re: BBOTD Wednesday 31st July 1.55 Goodwood - First Avenue 1pt win @ 20/1 Bet365 First Avenue has a very modest strike rate on the flat with just 2 wins from 22 starts on turf but has a further 9 placed efforts. He does have to put a very disappointing effort at Lingfield behind him but I am happy to excuse that effort as it came under Aaron Chave who is a very inexperienced 7lb claimer. Previous to that run however, he finished an excellent 4th over 22f at Royal Ascot; of which a repeat would put him bang there. He has had very few attempts at staying trips on the flat but I think he is the type of horse that could excel in this type of race. Any more rain would be welcome as plenty of his best form in both codes has come with cut in the ground. His trainer Laura Mongan certainly knows the time of day and understands what it takes to ready a horse as she proved when this horse romped home in the Imperial Cup at Sandown earlier in the year. I like the look of this race for Frist Avenue as there should be plenty of pace on up top with the likes of Broxbourne, Beyond, Beyone Conceit and a few others liking to race prominently. I also feel this track will suit First Avenue who is a strong traveller and is capable of a fast finish even at the end of a staying race like this one. The downhill finish might just help him a little and I can see him travelling well into the race and finishing off really well. Any more rain would be welcome and would enhance his chance but he has proven he can handle any ground so it’s not imperative. He has won off a 1lb higher mark on the flat but that came all the way back in 2008 and that was in fact his last win on the flat. Last year he ran several excellent races on the flat with the best of them both coming at Epsom where he finished 2nd to Aiken and Universal respectively. His win in the Imperial Cup was a career best over jumps by some distance despite everything going in his favour. I am going to take a chance that he can bounce back to the form that seen him finish 4th in the Queen Alexandra Stakes 2 runs ago and go close in this. Laura Mongan is no stranger to having winners at this track although the booking of Jack Mitchell is a slight worry. He has a nice racing weight of 9-1 and is berthed in stall 8. He does have to go against the recent age trend for the winner of this race but he did me a favour earlier in the year so maybe he can dig me out of another hole.

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Re: BBOTD Wednesday 31st July 8.35 Sandown Alwilda 5/2 Paddy Power BOG This looks another for Prescott whose yard is on fire. Alwida won over a mile at Southwell at 2 and has progressed this year running 4th over 11f at Kempton before finishing 2nd over 12f at Wolverhampton both times running on and in class 4 races. This is also class 4 over 14f which should suit and over the past few years the stable has an excellent record in this race. 1 Point win for nap purposes Alwilda 5/2 Paddy Power BOG

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Re: BBOTD Wednesday 31st July 4.50 Goodwood: Saucy Minx, 10/1 >boylesports, win Saucy Minx has won twice at this unique track from two runs here. She was beaten just a head lto as the outsider of three over a mile. She finished quite well that day so the extra furlong today should suit. She has been put up a pound after that race but as this is just her seventh run there could be a bit of improvement still to come. Trainer Amanda Perrett is in decent form and she has a solid record at Goodwood. Pat Dobbs, who is in good form and rode a winner here yesterday, has a very good record at Goodwood.

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Re: BBOTD Wednesday 31st July 16.50 Goodwood Class 3 1m1f: Great Timing 5/1 Betfair I note very seldom horses usually only ones i really think have great potential and Great Timing was such a horse LTO in Newmarket, Newmarket Hcps are strong races and he won a Class 3 Hcp with the 2nd runner up Forgive competing on good level vs Galician a double LTO winner in the Class 2 sphere with decent horses i remember. Here everything comes together today Forgive gave only 3 lenghts to Galician next time out, who is in Top Form and won afterwards a 60k Class Hcp in Ascot meeting vs really good animals. Now to the special part, why did I note this horse? I was doing my usual live observation and trying to find a paddock bet in that race and Great Timing was physical top Class and an expensive buy aswell I would imediately say Listed + potential, but the behaviour was very bad on that day, sweating, nervousness and during the race it showed and for these aspects the race was even more a a good perfromance.During the race the consequence was pulling hard the first quarter,I give this horse 5-8lbs on the negative behaviour in hand on that day. Today its stepped up and hooded, thats perfect for this horses behaviour and the physical talent is there. I cant see any horse up to Great Timing and I took the prices very early this time. I will watch closely the attitude of this horse but im convinced it will steam over the day. I checked up 3 time opponent Ribbons, and I cant see him up to that class at all, won an extreme poor race in Newmarket with animals all pulling hard slow pace and Ribbon without problems just won it a bit. Good luck! Rade

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Re: BBOTD Wednesday 31st July 1355 goodwood 1pt win gassin golf 20/1bet365 won a couple of flat races for sir mark prescott before having an attempt at hurdles last season,pulled up in the triumph hurdle , and finished 2nd at punchestown over hurdles,he can handle soft ground and this trip may suit,and an interesting that barzalona takes the ride

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13:55 Goodwood -Good Morning Star 1pt Win 33/1 Stan James Last time out wasn't this filly's true running never travelled at all and was tailed off. I prefer to look at her run in the Chester Cup where she wasn't disgraced and could even find improvement for this longer trip. Johnston won this race last year with a horse who hadnt won at the trip so at the odds its worth an EW chance, win for the competition though. Good luck.

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Re: BBOTD Wednesday 31st July

Last chance saloon time! Goodwood 5.25 - Good Authority 14/1 Ladbrokes This horse has run some really solid races recently and importantly, two of them have been over C&D on what will probably be similar ground. He looks the perfect type for this fast big field handicaps and like a few of the winners today he should come hard and fast at the death. The form looks good, the TS figures & RPR's back up those 9performances and whilst he was under par LTO (It looked a lot like he was never really put into that race IMO) his trainer hinted at targeting a big race either here or at Ascot after his last win.
This one is now 14/1 with BetVictor and Stan James so can I have that as BOG now just in case it does go out any further?

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Re: BBOTD Wednesday 31st July Goodwood 3.05 - Toronado (1pts win, 2/1 Stan James) This looks to be a cracker of a race but I expect Toronado and Dawn Approach to fight out the finish again but unlike last time I'm going to tip Toronado to gain revenge at Goodwood. Richard Hughes almost gave Toronado a perfect ride when just being touched off last time at Ascot and I don't think he did a lot wrong that day but something just tells me I fancy him to get up today and gain a deserved top level win. The pace he gets to run at will be key and could set it up for him finishing fast.

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Re: BBOTD Wednesday 31st July 525 Goodwood: Johannes 20/1 Bet365/PP Won here last year off a higher mark and that was the last time he actually won, showed signs of coming back last time at Hamilton when nearest at the finish. Yard going well, 5lb claimer on top who won on him last time and now on just 82, his lowest mark for 4 years.

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Re: BBOTD Wednesday 31st July Mexicali - Goodwood 1:55 - WIN @ 22/1 Bet365 Dean Ivory yard are in cracking for with his last 4 runners in a row winning. This french import stayed on strong at Kempton last time out in a Class 5 to win at 20/1 but should come on for the run. 22/1 looks massive for a yard that can do no wrong at the moment.

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Re: BBOTD Wednesday 31st July G4.50 Close At Hand 1pt Win 7/1 Coral This one sneaks in off bottom weight in this handicap and looks to have a great chance today. I like the form when the horse was staying on over 2 furlongs less at the course on only its 2nd racecourse run. The ability to handle the track then is proven unlike many of these and the same jockey takes the ride again - the jockey also has a good record at the track. Interestingly the jockey on the current joint favourite (Ribbons) has a very poor record at the track.

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Re: BBOTD Wednesday 31st July

1355 goodwood 1pt win gassin golf 20/1bet365 won a couple of flat races for sir mark prescott before having an attempt at hurdles last season,pulled up in the triumph hurdle , and finished 2nd at punchestown over hurdles,he can handle soft ground and this trip may suit,and an interesting that barzalona takes the ride
non runner

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Re: BBOTD Wednesday 31st July 1355 goodwood 1pt win lieutenant miller 13/2 stanj it may pay to follow nicky henderson on the flat,4 winners and 5 places from 20 runners ,showing a £15 profit to pound stakes,and his horse today has won or placed in 5 of his 7 races,and he has came into this race with a 3rd at royal ascot last time out,queally takes the ride

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Re: BBOTD Wednesday 31st July 1.55 Goodwood - 1pt win Lieutenant Miller @ 6/1 (Bet365) Nicky Henderson's runner isn't exactly an inventive selection for this marathon contest but 6/1 isn't too bad a price and I do expect him to take the beating this afternoon. This 2m5f trip is obviously going to take some getting and this horse looks a stout stayer having finished a close 2nd over 3 miles on soft ground over hurdles and has reverted to the flat with plenty of success this season. Was strong at the finish when a 2m1f winner at Doncaster, forging away from the reopposing Broxbourne who franked the form at the weekend with plenty of vigour. This horse went for the 2m4f handicap at Royal Ascot next time out and ran a cracker in third to suggest he can win a race of this ilk. Probably just bumped into a couple of horses better treated than himself but raced quite freely (this track potentially will suit better on that front) and lacked cover throughout really - having to race a touch wide. Still stayed on in third (looked vulnerable for that position briefly, but kept on well to repel a couple of challengers) and should get home at this venue over just a furlong further. Yard are in fine form and Tom Queally is 1-3 when riding for Henderson. Looks a worthy favourite and the rain shouldn't inconvenience.

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Re: BBOTD Wednesday 31st July 13.55 Goodwood - Ermyn Lodge - EW @ 66\1 Stanjames BOG Bottom weight and a string of duck eggs in the last 2 seasons but when last tackling this sort of distance at Ascot in 2011 was second in a class 2 handicap over 2m 4f. 8lb lower than that run and could run a big race if this the race connections are targeting. Will act on the ground and should see out the distance, just a question about whether any ability left.

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Re: BBOTD Wednesday 31st July A few people going for Hail Mary big ones today ! I'm being boring.............:D Goodwood 2.30 - Excess Knowledge - win at 7/4 bog bet365 Made an impressive seasonal debut last time out and should be suited by this step up in trip Represents the champion trainer, John Gosden and Buick in the saddle probably St Leger bound and can take this on the way

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Re: BBOTD Wednesday 31st July 340 Goodwood - Lanark - 17/2 - Bet Fred Just overpriced as some of these 2y0s are priced up on their connections and stables. Not far off the top rated and whilst he is an unlikely winner, is still overpriced based on what we have actually seen on the course. SDS rides which given his Goodwood record is not a positive but would be happy to be proven wrong all day long....

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Re: BBOTD Wednesday 31st July

340 Goodwood - Lanark - 17/2 - Bet Fred Just overpriced as some of these 2y0s are priced up on their connections and stables. Not far off the top rated and whilst he is an unlikely winner, is still overpriced based on what we have actually seen on the course. SDS rides which given his Goodwood record is not a positive but would be happy to be proven wrong all day long....
& if Lanark is overpriced then I guess RC must be too at 66/1 or whatever he is on the exchanges. Surely not good enough though....

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Re: BBOTD Wednesday 31st July 20.00 Sandown Tilstarr - 1PT Win 22/1 Bet365 Tilstarr is having her first try over the 1m 1f distance, however when she won over 7f at Lingfield in January she ran on well at the finish, which suggests she may get appreciate the step up to this distance. The last time Robert Tart was on board claiming 5lb, she finished 2nd at Newmarket at long odds, finishing 4 1/2 lengths behind Auction who consequently went on to finish 2nd in the Sandringham Handicap at Royal Ascot, only a neck behind Annecdote. She looks very overpriced in the market and could go well with Robert Tart back on board.

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Re: BBOTD Wednesday 31st July 8:35 Sandown 2 Trainers in form for this race there is John Hills (5/13 past fortnight) his horse is Nateeja 6/1 or Mark Prescott (10/20 past fortnight) Alwilda 2/1 After a bit of thought decided to opt for the bigger priced Nateeja as it is the only horse in the race that has been tried over the trip Staying on strongly and winning by 7 lengths LTO. (was a class 6 AW race where today is class4.) Paul Hanagan took over the reigns for that win and is visiting Sandown just for this 1 ride. Advised 1 pt win 6/1

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