Flat Racing ~ Wednesday 31st (Day 2 Goodwood)

[BillyHills]

1.55 Goodwood: UBS Goodwood Stakes (Class 2) 2m5f Tough opening contest and you cant ignore the jump trainers David Pipe or Nicky Henderson who are regulars in these staying handicaps. It’s a wide open race and I’m going to side with two that the trends back up in several key departments. Broxbourne is in form, won over a staying trip and is an improving 4yo, trainer Mark Johnston is firing at the moment and may be able to pull off a second win in five days. Italian Riviera is only rated 80 and was beaten at odds on last time so not great credentials on the face of it. He has only had two races on turf and has plenty of scope, we know how Sir Mark Prescott can improve his horses and this could just be another well marshalled plan. Selections: 1pt Broxbourne 7/1

>Bet365 1pt Italian Riviera 12/1 >William Hill

Full preview; http://www.goodwoodbetting.net/goodwood-stakes-betting-prescott-to-get-back-in-the-goodwood-limelight-with-italian-riviera-20130730

[BillyHills]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Wednesday 31st (Day 2 Goodwood)

2.30 Goodwood: Neptune Investment Management Gordon Stakes (Group 3) 1m4f A sub standard Gordon Stakes it has to be said and those that have been over the trip before are no world beaters so it may pay to take the chance on those yet to prove their stamina. John Gosden is hitting form and his Excess Knowledge ran a very promising race last time at Sandown. He looked in need of further that day and the form on its own is useful in the context of this race and needs only to improve a little to have these in trouble. Secret Number could chase him home if copes with the ground and is taken to confirm the running with Elkaayed last time. Selection: 3pts Excess Knowledge 5/2

>BetVictor

Full Preview; http://www.goodwoodbetting.net/gordon-stakes-betting-excess-knowledge-can-take-gordon-stakes-for-gosden-20130730

[BillyHills]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Wednesday 31st (Day 2 Goodwood)

3.05 Goodwood: Qipco Sussex Stakes (Group 1) 1m A mouth-watering prospect here with the two 3yo rivals meeting for the third time, it’s 2-0 to Dawn Approach at the moment and should be close once again as it was at Ascot but I expect the same result. I’m not sure the Bolger horse was back to his brilliant best in the Queen Anne yet still managed to hold off Toronado and now he’s had a 43 day break he should be absolutely spot on and that should be good enough. I think Toronado had his one chance of beating his nemesis although I’m sure Richard Hughes will have his tactics all sorted for a last ditch lunge as late as possible. Declaration Of War is up against it at the weights but is no mug and won’t be far away. Selection: 3pts Dawn Approach 11/10

>Paddy Power

Full Preview; http://www.goodwoodbetting.net/sussex-stakes-betting-dawn-approach-can-beat-toronado-again-in-sussex-stakes-20130730

[Aidymac]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Wednesday 31st (Day 2 Goodwood) Goodwood Gordon Stakes In summary, I do feel that the Bin Suroor horse is the value in this contest. He should appreciate a bit of cut in the ground and looked like he will stay this far. Silvestre De Sousa takes the ride and he is an extremely talented jockey who is a great tactician. I feel the favourite is worth taking on at the prices as although he looks progressive, he has no experience in Group company as of yet and could be vulnerable to a couple of more hardened horses. Secret Number - 2 Points WIN @ 11/2 Stanjames Read Full Preview @ http://www.punterslounge.com/goodwood-gordon-stakes-betting-secret-number-looks-a-good-bet-in-the-hands-of-silvestre-de-sousa

[Aidymac]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Wednesday 31st (Day 2 Goodwood) Goodwood Qipco Sussex Stakes In summary, it is very hard to back against Dawn Approach over a mile as he has never lost over this trip. He has already beat Toronado twice this season and I was expecting to see him as a 4/5 shot at most, so 11/10 looks attractive. Declaration Of War has a squeak, but he has done nothing as of yet to suggest he has the class Dawn Approach has. I am very content on taking the price about the Jim Bolger colt, because if you take away his Derby run he would be a 1/2 shot here. Dawn Approach - 5 Points WIN @ 11/10 Bet Victor Read Full Preview @ http://www.punterslounge.com/goodwood-sussex-stakes-dawn-approach-is-the-best-miler-in-the-world-and-should-have-too-much-for-toronado-again

[cpo]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Wednesday 31st (Day 2 Goodwood) 1.55 Goodwood – First Avenue 1pt win @ 20/1 Bet365 First Avenue has a very modest strike rate on the flat with just 2 wins from 22 starts on turf but has a further 9 placed efforts. He does have to put a very disappointing effort at Lingfield behind him but I am happy to excuse that effort as it came under Aaron Chave who is a very inexperienced 7lb claimer. Previous to that run however, he finished an excellent 4th over 22f at Royal Ascot; of which a repeat would put him bang there. He has had very few attempts at staying trips on the flat but I think he is the type of horse that could excel in this type of race. Any more rain would be welcome as plenty of his best form in both codes has come with cut in the ground. His trainer Laura Mongan certainly knows the time of day and understands what it takes to ready a horse as she proved when this horse romped home in the Imperial Cup at Sandown earlier in the year. I like the look of this race for Frist Avenue as there should be plenty of pace on up top with the likes of Broxbourne, Beyond, Beyone Conceit and a few others liking to race prominently. I also feel this track will suit First Avenue who is a strong traveller and is capable of a fast finish even at the end of a staying race like this one. The downhill finish might just help him a little and I can see him travelling well into the race and finishing off really well. Any more rain would be welcome and would enhance his chance but he has proven he can handle any ground so it’s not imperative. He has won off a 1lb higher mark on the flat but that came all the way back in 2008 and that was in fact his last win on the flat. Last year he ran several excellent races on the flat with the best of them both coming at Epsom where he finished 2nd to Aiken and Universal respectively. His win in the Imperial Cup was a career best over jumps by some distance despite everything going in his favour. I am going to take a chance that he can bounce back to the form that seen him finish 4th in the Queen Alexandra Stakes 2 runs ago and go close in this. Laura Mongan is no stranger to having winners at this track although the booking of Jack Mitchell is a slight worry. He has a nice racing weight of 9-1 and is berthed in stall 8. He does have to go against the recent age trend for the winner of this race but he did me a favour earlier in the year so maybe he can dig me out of another hole.

[beaker1]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Wednesday 31st (Day 2 Goodwood) 1:55 UBS Goodwood Stakes A rare flat race over this marathon trip and starting with tape and not stalls all serves to make this a pretty unique event. The nature of this race means that jumps trainers often send a strong hand of horses, and one of these really worth looking at is fielded by this year’s Cheltenham Gold Cup winning trainer, Nicky Henderson; LIEUTENANT MILLER. Henderson won this race in 2010 and looks to have an excellent chance of repeating the feat with this horse, the Beat All 7 year old was a useful hurdler but he has yet to finish out of the first three on the level, and comes here on the back of an extremely eye catching run at Royal Ascot when only beaten by a rare flat runner for JP McManus and Jonjo O’Neill and a Cecil trained favourite. This horse is a strong stayer and looks the pick of the horses fielded here by jumps trainers. Other trainers with previous winners also have interesting horses running for them in this event; Mark Johnston fields Broxbourne, who will be looking to reverse Doncaster form with Lieutenant Miller, and comes here off the back of a two mile Royal Ascot handicap win. He is improving for these staying trips, and tries his furthest yet here today and can’t be underestimated for a powerful yard with a good record at this track. The enigmatic Sir Mark Prescott has also won this race in recent years, and has his horses in devastatingly good form, with 10 winners from his last 15 runners and only 2 of the remaining 5 unplaced. He has the beautifully bred Italian Riviera here, by Galileo and out of listed winning mare, Miss Corniche. This horse has again improved dramatically for the longer trips, three times a winner over 2 miles and over, in only five runs. He could be well treated off a mark of 80 in this race and cannot be discounted for a yard in such strong form. The last horse worth a mention is Kazbow who is unbeaten in three runs in 2013, including over 2 mile 5 ½f at Pontefract, so staying should be assured. Richard Ford won’t be a trainer known for his big day wins, and indeed this horse is his only entry for the Glorious Meeting, however jockey Graham Lee this looks to be one of the more likely outsiders. 2:30 Neptune Investment Management Gordon Stakes This group three has been dominated by big, powerful yards over the years, and has had some excellent horses win it over the years such as Sixties Icon and Harbinger. This year sees a relatively small field of 7 taking part, but the field is made up of good, closely matched horses and it looks to be an incredibly competitive affair. Last year Godolphin saddled eventual St Leger winner, Enke who came a narrow second to Noble Mission in this event. This year have the interesting Cap O’Rushes running for Charlie Appleby, Godolphin’s recent replacement for Mahmood Al Zarooni. He was a two time winner as a two year old, and has run respectably since without winning, including a very eye catching run in a Royal Ascot handicap and fourth in the Irish Derby, he’s obviously got plenty of ability and him getting his head in front could be a very likely possibility. Running in the colours of last year’s winner is EXCESS KNOWLEDGE, while he hasn’t won a race since his maiden there is the very legitimate argument that subsequent runs were over inadequate trips, a staying on effort over two furlongs shorter at Sandown in a listed event at the beginning of July suggested that this sort of trip might suit, and he is a serious threat in this field. 3:05 QIPCO Sussex Stakes For the last two years this race has belonged Frankel, and there isn’t quite such a peerless animal in this years renewal, but there are some incredibly good horses, but much like the 2011 ‘dual on the downs’, all eyes will be on two competitors, Dawn Approach and Toronado, who are arguably the two best horses over a mile currently in training. Dawn Approach really caught the racing community’s imagination as a two year old, winning all 6 starts, including two Group 1 contests. He was an impressive winner of the 2000 Guineas, before his inability to settle meant he could play no real part of the Epsom Derby and finished last of the 12 runners. He bounced back from that to beat main rival Toronado by a short head at Royal Ascot in the St James’ Palace. Toronado comes from the Richard Hannon yard, who had won this race with Canford Cliffs before losing that title to Frankel in 2011. Three times a winner as a juvenile, including a real battling effort in the Champagne Stakes at Doncaster. He went on to make light work of the Craven Stakes on his first run as a three year old, before running well below form in the Guineas, finishing fourth and being beaten by stable mate, Van Der Neer. He showed what was felt to be far more his true form going down by a short head in a photo to Dawn Approach in the St James’ Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot. He comes here for his first run at his trainers stomping ground and commands plenty of respect. The manner in which these two left the rest of the field behind in the St James’ Palace suggests much the same will happen in this field, these two will forge clear and the race will be battled out between themselves. Dawn Approach does come here with two wins over TORONADO, but Hannon’s colt showed he was far more closely matched than the Guineas run suggested at Ascot, and at a track his trainer does so well at he is worth giving another chance to beat his rival. 3:40 Veuve Clicquot Vintage Stakes Despite only having 7 runners, this illustrious race for two year olds looks to be seriously competitive. This race has been dominated by Richard Hannon in recent years, who has won the last three runnings of this race. This year he has Expert and Toormore, both of which fail to really catch the imagination. Parbold is of interest for Richard Fahey, a smart debut winner before going on to the Coventry Stakes, where he was second behind the incredibly impressive War Command. He is obviously a smart individual, and would be dangerous to underestimate. Godolphin two year olds are usually a force to be reckoned with, and OUTSTRIP is well worth a mention. Unsurprisingly when one considers his connections, this horse is beautifully bred by Exceed and Excel, an exceptional sire of two year olds and out of Asi Siempre who was a real force to be reckoned with in the states, winning six races including the group 1 Spinster Stakes at Keeneland. He lived up to his black type heavy pedigree on debut at Newmarket where, despite being a bit green in the early stages of the race, he won his maiden well and the form looks strong; beating True Story who went on to beat Expert who runs here. If he can build on that performance and tidy up the start of his races he has an excellent chance here. 4:15 Markel Insurance Maiden Fillies Stakes Another two year old race here, this time a much bigger field, and an interesting mix of fillies with experience as well as some without it. A placed effort on the all weather at Lingfield doesn’t always provoke the most interest, but MUCH PROMISE did just that, behind Along Again (who was odds on), who subsequently placed behind Princess Noor in a Group 3 at Ascot this Weekend, which looks like it could be a pretty strong line of form. The Qatar racing owned filly is in excellent hands with John Gosden who gets his fair share of two year old winners here, and it would be no great shock to see her run a big race. Of the horses making their first starts here Fashion Fund looks an interesting entry for Brian Meehan, who has an excellent record with two year olds at Goodwood. He has the right pedigree to be a good two year old on both sides of the family and her dam was out of the excellent Gossamer, a winner of three fillies Group races in the early 2000’s. It would be foolish to overlook such a well bred horse from a yard with such a good two year old record at this track. One final horse worth a second glance is Valonia, trained by Henry Candy. This horses only run to date was second in a Newmarket maiden, when one of the outsiders of the field at 33/1, the horse she was beaten by has gone on to finish second in a listed race, and she finished ahead of a Hannon favourite, Oriel who has won since. With that form looking strong, she is one to consider in a tricky and competitive event. 4:50 British Stallion Studs Turf Club EBF Fillies’ Stakes We now have a tough and competitive fillies handicap to crack, one non-runner leaving us with 15 to work out. One it’s immediately hard to ignore is GREAT TIMING one of a strong handful of runners over the course of the day for Charlie Appleby. She made her debut here and got a bit outpaced towards the end of the race, but that’s not been a problem since, and has won two of her three subsequent starts, staying on smartly at the end of her races, with an official racing of 95 she is the highest rated horse in the race, but a weight for age allowance means she doesn’t have a sacrificial weight to carry, and she should be able to show her class in this field. James Fanshawe fields the unbeaten Ribbons for the Elite Racing Club, who won here at the beginning of May. She has done nothing wrong in her career to date and although this will be the toughest company she’s faced to date and she’ll need to prove herself in that regard she has a fantastic attitude and should run a game race. Finally at the foot of the handicap is Close At Hand, while there is some worry that she has been held by Saucy Minx who runs here for Amanda Perrett in May, that was over 2 furlongs shorter and she was running on. This horse looks like she is improving, and is coming here of the back of a strong staying on run when winning over a mile at Windsor, looking like their might be a bit more to come with a slight step up in trip, which she’ll have here. She’s been given a bit of a chance with a mark of 76 and is an interesting runner for a top handler . 5:25 Harwoods Racing Club Handicap The last race of the day will be a difficult event to solve with 20 runners over a 7 furlong trip. Discretion is an interesting runner for Kevin Ryan, who hasn’t won since winning a handicap at Newcastle last August, he received a bit of a hike in the weights for that and is finally back to his winning mark and could be interesting running here off that. At the foot of the handicap is My Kingdom, who is here to make is 59th start, he wouldn’t be the most consistent of winners, but he does like it here, having won twice over course and distance, and remains in good heart, winning at Newmarket in June. He races here off a mark of 77, and has won off 86 in the past, so the mark should be workable. Both Stuart Williams and Mickael Barzalona have good records with older horses here and this 7 year old has a good chance here. BRAVO ECHO is another 7 year old running here of what could potentially be a good mark for this horse. He’ll be making his 54th start here, and again won’t be remembered as being the most consistent of winners but he was a winner twice here last season, and ran here in May and June finishing third and second before heading to Deauville where he beat no slouch in Ariete Arrollodor, he’s won off marks as high as 96 in the past, so carrying 82 here shouldn’t prove an impossibility. One final horse to consider in this large field is Askaud, who has been stepped down to 7 furlongs for his last two runs, which has proved a successful venture, as he managed to win them both, and can boast previous Goodwood form.He won at Haydock off a higher mark so carrying 86 here shouldn’t prove an impossibility, and he has held the higher rated Good Authority in the past, so is well worth a glance in this field.

[Aidymac]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Wednesday 31st (Day 2 Goodwood) Goodwood Vintage Stakes In summary, I feel the Mark Johnston horse is worth another chance at this level. He disappointed in the Coventry Stakes, but he looked very decisive last time out with a good front-running display. He finished 2nd and 1st from his two runs at Goodwood and he is definitely suited to this sharp track. I am hoping Silvestre De Sousa belts off in front, takes a few lengths out of the field, gives the horse a breather and then tries to hold them all off. Lanark - 2 Points WIN @ 8/1 Stan James Read Full Preview @ http://www.punterslounge.com/goodwood-vintage-stakes-betting-mark-johnston-s-lanark-should-be-able-to-string-them-out-and-might-hold-on

[joeblitz]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Wednesday 31st (Day 2 Goodwood) 8.35 Sandown Alwilda 5/2 Paddy Power BOG This looks another for Prescott whose yard is on fire. Alwida won over a mile at Southwell at 2 and has progressed this year running 4th over 11f at Kempton before finishing 2nd over 12f at Wolverhampton both times running on and in class 4 races. This is also class 4 over 14f which should suit and over the past few years the stable has an excellent record in this race. 10 Points win Alwilda 5/2 Paddy Power BOG 2.30 Goodwood Excess Knowledge 2/1 Paddy Power BOG Excess Knowledge boasts the best form in this. Winner of a maiden over a mile at Sandown at 2, he followed up with a 2nd to Just The Judge over 7f at Newbury before running disappointingly in the Royal Lodge at Newmarket Group 2. 3rd in his only start at 3 in a listed over 10f at Sandown 3 weeks ago against older horses and finishing strongly, he can take this before running in the Leger. 10 Points win Express Knowledge 2/1 Paddy Power BOG 3.05 Goodwood Dawn Approach 11/10 Stan James 11/10 BOG Dawn Approach tackles the older horses for the first time here and that is the only worry. He won the St James Palace at Ascot having been headed to battle back. This was after running down the field in the Derby. Declaration of War is improving but the stable's form is suspect. Toranado has been beaten twice by Dawn Approach but is high class. However Dawn Approach would be unbeaten if he hadn't run in the Derby and I will follow him until he is beaten again. 10 Points win Dawn Approach 11/10 Stan James 6.05 Galway Moonbi Creek 5/1 Boylesports BOG Moonbi Creek has just had the one run this season finishing 6th at Killarney a couple of weeks ago. Last year he got bogged down on the groun here. Provided the ground isn't heavy I expect him to be thereabouts and with luck he will be another winner for Weld. 5 Points e/w Moonbi Creek 5/1 Boylesports BOG More Galway Selections tomorrow when the prices come in....

[Aidymac]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Wednesday 31st (Day 2 Goodwood) UBS Goodwood Stakes In summary, this is an extremely hot handicap and it can pay to stick to a trainer in form at a decent price. We saw Mark Johnston in hot form the other day and his horse, Galician, won at 33/1 in the big handicap. Sir Mark Prescott and Dean Ivory can do no wrong at the moment and their horses offer good each-way value in this contest. I am particularly sweet on Italian Riviera, who is thought highly of at the Prescott yard and a better run was expected at Warwick last time out. Italian Riviera - 1 Point Each Way @ 14/1 Stan James Mexicali - 1 Point Each Way @ 25/1 Stan James Read Full Preview @ http://www.punterslounge.com/ubs-goodwood-stakes-betting-italian-riviera--mexicali-look-the-value-for-two-in-form-trainers

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Wednesday 31st (Day 2 Goodwood) Lets hope Richard Hannon & Richard Hughes can get some revenge in the sussex stakes, they were very unlucky last time, 3rd time lucky ? time will tell. 3:05 Goodwood - Toronado

[Aidymac]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Wednesday 31st (Day 2 Goodwood) Galway Plate In summary, I am going to concentrate on Terminal and Bobowen. Terminal is trained by the best trainer in Ireland in Willie Mullins and ran well in the RSA Chase this year at Cheltenham. He would have been prepped specifically with this race in mind and Ruby Walsh takes the mount which has to be a positive. Bobowen is definitely worth an each way bet as he won in sublime fashion last time out, and the UK raider would not be coming over if they didn't think he had a good chance. Terminal - 1 Point Each Way @ 8/1 Stan James Bobowen - 1 Point Each Way @ 16/1 >Boylesports Read Full Preview @ http://www.punterslounge.com/galway-plate-betting-terminal-should-go-close-for-willie-mullins-and-bobowen-should-run-a-nice-race-too

[smith17]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Wednesday 31st (Day 2 Goodwood) 1.55 Goodwood: Seaside Sizzler, 14/1 >Bet365, e/w Seaside Sizzler was third in the Queen Alexander Stakes lto, finishing less then 2L behind the 102 rated Chiberta King and 1½L behind the 109 rated Shahwardi. It was a great run considering he is rated 86 and they were running off level weights. He finished sixth in this race last year from a two pound higher mark but he is in better form this year. He finished second the year before beaten just ¾L off a three pound lower mark. The bit of cut in the ground shouldn't inconvenience him too much. Trainer Ralph Beckett is in decent form. Jim Crowley is in the saddle. 2.30 Goodwood: Elkaayed, 9/2 >Betvictor, win Elkaayed steps up in trip to a mile and a half for the first time today. He has improved each time he ran over further and I expect him to improve for the extra 2f today. He has finished strongly in two of his three races over 10f which suggests 12f will suit. He was beaten 2L in fifth lto in the group 3 Tercentenary Stakes at Ascot. He should come on a bit for his first experience of group company. He should get an easy lead today and I think he will be hard to pass. His breeding suggest a bit of cut in the ground will suit. Paul Hanagan is in the saddle. 4.50 Goodwood: Saucy Minx, 10/1 >boylesports, win Saucy Minx has won twice at this unique track from two runs here. She was beaten just a head lto as the outsider of three over a mile. She finished quite well that day so the extra furlong today should suit. She has been put up a pound after that race but as this is just her seventh run there could be a bit of improvement still to come. Trainer Amanda Perrett is in decent form and she has a solid record at Goodwood. Pat Dobbs, who is in good form and rode a winner here yesterday, has a very good record at Goodwood.

[radelnblueangel]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Wednesday 31st (Day 2 Goodwood) 16.50 Goodwood Class 3 1m1f: Great Timing 5/1 >Betfair 10 Points Win unpl I note very seldom horses usually only ones i really think have great potential and Great Timing was such a horse LTO in Newmarket, Newmarket Hcps are strong races and he won a Class 3 Hcp with the 2nd runner up Forgive competing on good level vs Galician a double LTO winner in the Class 2 sphere with decent horses i remember. Here everything comes together today Forgive gave only 3 lenghts to Galician next time out, who is in Top Form and won afterwards a 60k Class Hcp in Ascot meeting vs really good animals. Now to the special part, why did I note this horse? I was doing my usual live observation and trying to find a paddock bet in that race and Great Timing was physical top Class and an expensive buy aswell I would imediately say Listed + potential, but the behaviour was very bad on that day, sweating, nervousness and during the race it showed and for these aspects the race was even more a a good perfromance.During the race the consequence was pulling hard the first quarter,I give this horse 5-8lbs on the negative behaviour in hand on that day. Today its stepped up and hooded, thats perfect for this horses behaviour and the physical talent is there. I cant see any horse up to Great Timing and I took the prices very early this time. I will watch closely the attitude of this horse but im convinced it will steam over the day. I checked up 3 time opponent Ribbons, and I cant see him up to that class at all, won an extreme poor race in Newmarket with animals all pulling hard slow pace and Ribbon without problems just won it a bit. Edit: I could see the parade on live stream here and wasnt so keen anymore on Great Timing at all, as Ribbbons ( strong physical attributes, but strange behaviour beforehand), Rhagori 45/1 BSP other Thread in Systems Thread and Jabhaat 12/1 BSP looked stronger balanced to my eye. Funny thing how ring observation gives different feelings to chances. Goodwood 3.40 7f Group2 Outstrip 6/1 Betfair 2 Points win 2nd pushing clear 1,1 BSP fading late:spank I quite like how this animal is put together. The way it moved up the hill LTO in Newmarket gives me the feeling that all parts work harmonously together in that type. Is able to have a fluent end sprint with many strides and makes ground quickly that way. For me better than Toormore and for this price worth a chance vs Parbold today. Edit: Could see the ring here also and i have to say I fancied Outsrip a lot after the impression, he looked perfect and in my view lost the race only because of a too early forward push that couldnt be maintained properly. Outstrip is an exceptional horse, that has to win a big one soon. The fav nicked it late, but I rate Outstrip higher than the fav in future races. Goodwood 2.30 1m4f Group 3 Cap O Rushes 5/1 Betfair 1 Points Win 1st:cow This is an interesting contest. Good to Soft ground and should be quiet tight affair. I choose Cap O Rushes, as I believe this kind of track will bring the best out of this horse. The undulating downhill parts will suit this horse a lot if leading or pressing the pace, i hope Barzalona will press today the pace. Its a speedy type when I look at this horse and i feel can use the downhill parts to save energy while making ground and pushing away in the end, without having an uphill like the races it had before. The competition was quite good LTO and the way it raced in Curragh would be ideal for Goodwoods undulations. Elkayeed i rate highly, but i question this track for him its speedy track and I want a flat track without bends on G-S for Elmayeed. Havana Beat isnt far away either and is a bit high i think. Excess Knowledge very talented, but here I dont like the track, its not a track for good finishers i believe over this distance, you can already make too much earlier, so my bet is the speedy sort CapoRushed here. Edit: Here i wasnt in front of the live stream, only saw the replay. First thing, this form is a big ?, as i wrote this track layout over Goodwood 1m4f is special, my selection had the advantage vs good horses, of the downhill parts and could use the speedy back muscles to make a clever push late, but to be honest, there were many good or better horses in it, that couldnt bring out their strenghts they have. But this distance there is special, they went slow and the bunched finish was a lottery late. Funny that all bets are ridden by Barzalona, its just coincidence. Good luck! Rade

[jayalexander]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Wednesday 31st (Day 2 Goodwood) I don't suppose it's going to happen today, but Raul Da Silva has had a single ride for the past two days and won them both at 16/1 and 25/1 and has the one ride today - Perfect World in the 5:00 at Redcar.

[joeblitz]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Wednesday 31st (Day 2 Goodwood) 4.45 Galway Alkali 9/2 Boylesports BOG A 3 horse race here. Union Dues won 2 bumpers on fast and heavy before disappointing at Cheltenham and is passed over in favour of Army Ranger and Alkali, the 2 flat horses. Army Ranger was trounced by Magnolia Ridge at Tipperary who is trained by Weld who also trains my selection Alkali. This won disappointed badly lto at the Curragh over 10f but prior to that finished 3rd to Dabadiyan and Waver over 12f at the Curragh (fto was 3rd to Say at Cork over 12f). That form is the strongest in the race and should win on that. 10 Points win Alkali 9/2 Boylesports

[jayalexander]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Wednesday 31st (Day 2 Goodwood) All of Dean Ivory's 6 runners over the past 14 days have gone in as winners (4) or placed (2). He's got two at EW prices today at Goodwood :ok

[The Saint]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Wednesday 31st (Day 2 Goodwood) 305 Goodwood The Key Horse in the race for me could be Mars. Mars was beaten 2.75l by Tornanado and Dawn Approach at Ascot and by 2l over 2f further by Decleration Of War giving the 2 3yos the beating of him by about 3lbs of 1 1/2 lengths over todays distance. Whether or not that equates to Evs, 9/4 & 5/1 I'm not too sure. 'Duel on the Downs' has rightfully and understandably been hyped up by the media but I believe that this has given the Bookie chaps the opportunity to lay the front 2 at artificially low prices. Paddy Power are and have been best price over DA all morning so they are either dead against it or are after some severe publicity.... If there were 8 going to post then DOW would be a fantastic EW bet. Still might be but 8 runners would have been nice. Has been as high as 7.2 on the exchanges and that's probably the price I'd want in order to get involved but it's not forthcoming as yet. In fact, I think Gregorian and Trade Storm are both too big a price too - that having been said though, I don't think they are good enough to challenge the front 2 and it's unlikey that the front 3 in the betting all fail to give their running. For interests sake, Dawn Approach 9/4 Toranado 5/2 D of War 4/1 Gregorian 11/1 Trade Storm 11/1 Leitir Mor 40/1 Reply 350/1 That's to 100% roughly. Won't be laying at these prices because I don't have to! Hope Dawn Approach and Toranado provide a great spectacle for the sport - it's the most likely outcome by far. I just don't think it's quite as likely as the market would have you believe. No bet at this stage for me - Good Luck to all that are playing though

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Wednesday 31st (Day 2 Goodwood) 1.55 Goodwood - 2pts win Lieutenant Miller @ 6/1 (Bet365) Nicky Henderson's runner isn't exactly an inventive selection for this marathon contest but 6/1 isn't too bad a price and I do expect him to take the beating this afternoon. This 2m5f trip is obviously going to take some getting and this horse looks a stout stayer having finished a close 2nd over 3 miles on soft ground over hurdles and has reverted to the flat with plenty of success this season. Was strong at the finish when a 2m1f winner at Doncaster, forging away from the reopposing Broxbourne who franked the form at the weekend with plenty of vigour. This horse went for the 2m4f handicap at Royal Ascot next time out and ran a cracker in third to suggest he can win a race of this ilk. Probably just bumped into a couple of horses better treated than himself but raced quite freely (this track potentially will suit better on that front) and lacked cover throughout really - having to race a touch wide. Still stayed on in third (looked vulnerable for that position briefly, but kept on well to repel a couple of challengers) and should get home at this venue over just a furlong further. Yard are in fine form and Tom Queally is 1-3 when riding for Henderson. Looks a worthy favourite and the rain shouldn't inconvenience.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Wednesday 31st (Day 2 Goodwood) 2.30 Goodwood - 2pts win Secret Number @ 11/2 (Bet365) Trappy little event but Saeed Bin Suroor's runner looks to have a genuinely good chance upped to 1m4f today. Looked a horse to follow when beating a smart type on debut at Kempton (that runner-up subsequently rated 95) and did nothing wrong over in Dubai, including a staying on third in the UAE Derby. Although artificial surfaces clearly suit, races over at Meydan are often not run at great gallops and that wouldn't suit this horse I feel. He'd love a nice gallop to come off and although that's not guaranteed here, at least he gets a two furlong increase in trip. His effort at Royal Ascot suggests that this will suit - initially being outpaced and looking like going nowhere, prior to staying on strongly in the closing stages. The ease in the ground may suit on that evidence too as she couldn't pick up when the leaders were quickening so 1m4f on slightly easier ground could well suit. Although he disappointed in the Dante, it came at a time where the yard couldn't buy a winner, but soon found form afterwards and now with the yard enjoying a productive summer, he looks one to side with at a reasonable price.

[Primevil]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Wednesday 31st (Day 2 Goodwood) 2.30 EXCESS KNOWLEDGE. 15/8 HILLS....My word I'm surprised they have held this.....LOOK AT THE SIRE...if there is a horse running today, who will want this dig in the ground, and this extra distance,,it's this one,,and the sire tells you his good ones progress with every run...for me this is the bookie brasher of the day...lets hope he makes Em pay.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Wednesday 31st (Day 2 Goodwood) 4.50 Goodwood - 2pts win Close At Hand @ 6/1 (Bet365) John Gosden's charge looks fairly handicapped down at the bottom of the weights and I'm anticipating a big run from her off a featherweight of 8-0. Built on an inexperienced performance on debut to be a staying on second to Saucy Minx (3/4l between them) and my selection has a 7lb swing in the weights today despite doing little wrong since. She lost her place before coming home well again to be beaten a length at Nottingham on her third start - closing well to the line behind a now 82-rated individual - and made no mistake in a Windsor maiden last time with the hood applied when running out a 2l winner. A mark of 76 looks far from beyond her - especially now she steps up an extra furlong - and it's difficult to see her not getting involved assuming she gets some luck from stall 3.

[arsenalpunter]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Wednesday 31st (Day 2 Goodwood) 16:50 Goodwood 1m 1f Class 3 British Stallion Studs Turf Club E B F Fillies Handicap Selection: Ribbons 9/2 StanJames I’m going to take a chance on the unbeaten Ribbons today despite many of these coming here with chances. Ribbons has a 100% record in her first 3 races, all over a mile, including winning here back in May. Last time out she won at Newmarket, beating Zeyran by a neck, she was challenged late on by the runner up but she stuck to her task gamely and stayed on well at the finish to win. It’s Ribbon’s first attempt at trying the 1m 1f trip today, but her previous races suggest she will handle the step up without any problem. She has been raised 7lb for her win at Newmarket but is open to further improvement. Hayley Turner has previously ridden the horse on all 3 occasions but as she is out injured, James Doyle takes the ride and is a positive booking. 20:35 Sandown 1m 6f Class 4 Hersham Handicap Selection: Alwilda 9/4 PaddyPower Sir Mark Prescott seems to be firing in the winners as of late, and he can add another to his tally with Alwilda in the finale on Sandown’s card. The 3-year-old filly has had 5 runs to date, with 4 of those coming on the All Weather surface. She only has one win to her name, that win coming over a mile at Southwell last year, but she has shaped as though she will appreciate further in distance after 2 runs this year. The first coming over 1m 3f at Kempton when she was held up towards the rear of the field and got going too late but stayed on strongly to take 4th. Alwilda’s second appearance this year again came on the all weather, this time at Wolverhampton, and she was upped in trip to 1m 4f. This time round she was more prominent and raced midfield, however in a similar scenario the leaders skipped clear and she stayed on towards the finish. 1m 6f is being tried for the first time here and that should help my selection step up on her latest performances and get her head in front. Nateeja looks like the biggest danger after she won well at Wolverhampton over 1m 5f 194y last time out, however that was in Class 6 company and she takes the step up to Class 4 company here. Although she is open to improvement she is up 10lb for that victory at Wolverhampton and she may find this race looks a tough assignment.

[The Saint]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Wednesday 31st (Day 2 Goodwood)

305 Goodwood The Key Horse in the race for me could be Mars. Mars was beaten 2.75l by Tornanado and Dawn Approach at Ascot and by 2l over 2f further by Decleration Of War giving the 2 3yos the beating of him by about 3lbs of 1 1/2 lengths over todays distance. Whether or not that equates to Evs, 9/4 & 5/1 I'm not too sure. 'Duel on the Downs' has rightfully and understandably been hyped up by the media but I believe that this has given the Bookie chaps the opportunity to lay the front 2 at artificially low prices. Paddy Power are and have been best price over DA all morning so they are either dead against it or are after some severe publicity.... If there were 8 going to post then DOW would be a fantastic EW bet. Still might be but 8 runners would have been nice. Has been as high as 7.2 on the exchanges and that's probably the price I'd want in order to get involved but it's not forthcoming as yet. In fact, I think Gregorian and Trade Storm are both too big a price too - that having been said though, I don't think they are good enough to challenge the front 2 and it's unlikey that the front 3 in the betting all fail to give their running. For interests sake, Dawn Approach 9/4 Toranado 5/2 D of War 4/1 Gregorian 11/1 Trade Storm 11/1 Leitir Mor 40/1 Reply 350/1 That's to 100% roughly. Won't be laying at these prices because I don't have to! Hope Dawn Approach and Toranado provide a great spectacle for the sport - it's the most likely outcome by far. I just don't think it's quite as likely as the market would have you believe. No bet at this stage for me - Good Luck to all that are playing though

Toronado it is then!! 4.1 & drifting.....

[Primevil]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Wednesday 31st (Day 2 Goodwood)

2.30 EXCESS KNOWLEDGE. 15/8 HILLS....My word I'm surprised they have held this.....LOOK AT THE SIRE...if there is a horse running today' date=' who will want this dig in the ground, and this extra distance,,it's this one,,and the sire tells you his good ones progress with every run...for me this is the bookie brasher of the day...lets hope he makes Em pay.[/quote'] 10/1. For the ST LEGER...fill up.

[radelnblueangel]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Wednesday 31st (Day 2 Goodwood) Goodwood 3.40 The 2,36 BSP on Toormore must be public overbetting 2nd and 3rd fav look so strong is for me the ValueLay of the Day at this price this Toormore. Edit: Well I wonder how Outstrip could loose that in the last strides, but wrong Lay is wrong Lay. But still Outstrip will beat Toormore on a different day i feel,has more talent.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Wednesday 31st (Day 2 Goodwood) 8.10 Leicester - 2pts win Key Ambition @ 8/1 (Hills) There are questions about a lot of these so that makes Garry Moss' runner appealing to me at a nice price as he doesn't have as much to prove as many of those. He does struggle to win but got his head in front last time out in a race franked by the runner-up and is only 3lbs higher tonight. Prior to that he was a good 3rd to today's favourite Clubland despite being off the track for over two months and there's a big swing in the weights with that one here. He goes well with the headgear combination persisted with tonight and soft ground doesn't inconvenience (won debut on soft). Plenty of these have to prove themselves with regards to current wellbeing, ground or trip so I'll side with one who should be fine on all fronts and at 8/1 is worth chancing he can back up last time's win. 8.45 Leicester - 2pts win Haatefina @ 10/1 (VC) Mark Usher's horses are in decent nick and Daniel Muscutt has a 20% strike rate when riding for the yard. That bodes well on a filly who can win a race at this level and has run some okay races this season so far. She beat a good horse when winning her maiden last season on soft ground and it seems she does enjoy some give in the ground. She shaped really well with the visor applied for the first time earlier this season when beaten less than 3l in a decent 0-75 affair off a mark of 66 and again was not disgraced at Windsor next time out. Found 1m2f in a 0-90 race too taxing last time out and today off a mark of 62 gets to run back at a mile, with give in the ground, a 7lb claimer taking more weight off and it's a drop in grade to a 0-65. All of those things add up to give her a good chance I reckon and 10/1 is fair.

[joeblitz]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Wednesday 31st (Day 2 Goodwood) + 60.79 for the month is poor and tells me I am having too many bets. But we will rock on and see what happens

[jayalexander]

It's never poor if you're in profit!

[bowles10]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Wednesday 31st (Day 2 Goodwood)

16:50 Goodwood 1m 1f Class 3 British Stallion Studs Turf Club E B F Fillies Handicap Selection: Ribbons 9/2 StanJames I’m going to take a chance on the unbeaten Ribbons today despite many of these coming here with chances. Ribbons has a 100% record in her first 3 races, all over a mile, including winning here back in May. Last time out she won at Newmarket, beating Zeyran by a neck, she was challenged late on by the runner up but she stuck to her task gamely and stayed on well at the finish to win. It’s Ribbon’s first attempt at trying the 1m 1f trip today, but her previous races suggest she will handle the step up without any problem. She has been raised 7lb for her win at Newmarket but is open to further improvement. Hayley Turner has previously ridden the horse on all 3 occasions but as she is out injured, James Doyle takes the ride and is a positive booking. 20:35 Sandown 1m 6f Class 4 Hersham Handicap Selection: Alwilda 9/4 PaddyPower Sir Mark Prescott seems to be firing in the winners as of late, and he can add another to his tally with Alwilda in the finale on Sandown’s card. The 3-year-old filly has had 5 runs to date, with 4 of those coming on the All Weather surface. She only has one win to her name, that win coming over a mile at Southwell last year, but she has shaped as though she will appreciate further in distance after 2 runs this year. The first coming over 1m 3f at Kempton when she was held up towards the rear of the field and got going too late but stayed on strongly to take 4th. Alwilda’s second appearance this year again came on the all weather, this time at Wolverhampton, and she was upped in trip to 1m 4f. This time round she was more prominent and raced midfield, however in a similar scenario the leaders skipped clear and she stayed on towards the finish. 1m 6f is being tried for the first time here and that should help my selection step up on her latest performances and get her head in front. Nateeja looks like the biggest danger after she won well at Wolverhampton over 1m 5f 194y last time out, however that was in Class 6 company and she takes the step up to Class 4 company here. Although she is open to improvement she is up 10lb for that victory at Wolverhampton and she may find this race looks a tough assignment.

nice little double there AP, 2 good winners. Glad someone is booting them home.