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Blazing Bailey

BBOTD Tuesday 30th July

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Goodwood 1.55 - Clon Brulee 9/1 Bet365 BOG Comes out just on top of my ratings and still looks like a horse that is progressing. His run at York was a little disappointing but the horse in front of him didnt do him any favours on a couple of occasions down the back straight and once his jockey knew he wasnt going to win he stopped riding pretty quickly. The principles were too good for him but this race doesnt appear to be as competitive and he can exploit a pretty handy draw. Will act on all ground & is already being backed (was 11/1 around 6pm).

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Re: BBOTD Tuesday 29th July 3.05 Goodwood: Casper Netscher, 11/1 >Bet365, win Casper Netscher is making his seasonal debut today. He won fto the last two seasons so that shouldn't be a problem. He has won three times at this level in the past, including the Gimcrack and the German 2000 Guineas. His last three races have been at the top level. He got within 2L of the truly top class Excelebration two runs ago and was just ½L behind Elusive Kate and Moonlight Cloud. If he runs up to that standard today, he will go very close. The ground will suit. He is having his first run for the very much in-form David Simcock today. Shane Kelly, who has been on board for CN's last six runs, including two wins, retains the ride.

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Re: BBOTD Tuesday 29th July G5.25 Tioman Legend e/w 20/1 Ladbrokes This trainer has a terrific strike rate here and I think he may have lined this horse up to strike today. A repeat of the horses 3rd of 15 in its only attempt at c&d would suggest that it could go very close here. The horse dwelt at the start that day and is on a 5lb lower mark today so a decent start today could mean that the 20/1 is very generous indeed.

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Re: BBOTD Tuesday 29th July 1355 goodwood 1pt win fast or free 13/2 betvic been off the race course for over a year,and has been entered for 2 races this week at goodwood, today over 1 mile 1, and on thursday over a mile,this gelding has had 3 wins over 7 furlongs and a mile so it is with interest that he tackles the longer trip today,the combo of hanagan and haggas have a great win rate when teaming up this year 12 wins from 33 rides 36% strike rate, he also has been placed in 8 of the others

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Re: BBOTD Tuesday 29th July Goodwood 3.05 Garswood I know this one is very well thought of & I was taken by him on his debut last year at York where he was a fine 3rd in a warm maiden. Found another tough maiden here after that & then opened his account in a Listed race at Ayr's Western meeting & ended last season with a head 2nd in an Ascot Group3. Stepped up on previous form to land the Free Handicap at Newmarket on his seasonal return & then was not disgraced in the 2000 Guineas where he probably found the mile a bit too far & the ground a bit quick. Also fast ground on his last run in the Jersey at the Royal meeting where he was 4th & he should be better suited by today's easier surface, in fact the more rain the better. 3yo's have a good record in this & the booking of Ryan Moore is a big plus Aljamaaheer has a pen for winning a Group2 LTO & might be better at a mile anyway. Producer is Hughes choice from three of Hannon's & this is his trip, he's won here & four at Epsom so handles the quirky tracks & he rates the danger for me. I took the 6/1 last night but will put him up at the 5's. Bet. Garswood 1pt win @ 5/1 Betvictor BOG. Rio.

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Re: BBOTD Tuesday 29th July 16.25 Yarmouth - Qanan - Win @ 11\4 SJ BOG Course and Distance winner here in May on Good to Soft ground. Only 2lb higher today. Ground likely to get worse throughout the day and this horse should deal with any softening in the ground. Carry's top weight.

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Re: BBOTD Tuesday 29th July Goodwood Lennox Stakes In summary, I find it hard to knock the form of Aljamaaheer of late as he has been competing at the top level. He went very close in a Group 1 behind Declaration Of War and he won the Group 2 Summer Mile last time out, so this race is there for the taking for him tomorrow. Paul Hanagan is on a hot streak at the moment and he is settling in really well at his new role riding in the bigger races and the Roger Varian yard is in good form of late. Aljamaaheer - WIN @ 7/2 Bet365

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Re: BBOTD Tuesday 29th July 6.10 Galway Tarfasha 4/6 Boylesports BOG With the possible ground charge at Goodwood I cannot recommend anything at all today. So to this race in which Weld again has a great record again and runs Tarfasha who was a rapidly closing neck second behind Geoffrey Chaucer who is very well regarded by his connections over 1m at Leopardstown 12 days ago. The drop back to 7f will be no trouble and she will be at the top of her game today. She is entered in group 1s later in the season and will win this. 1 Point win for nap purposes Tarfasha 4/6 Boylesports BOG

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Re: BBOTD Tuesday 29th July 1.55 Goodwood - 1pt win Fast or Free @ 6/1 (Bet365) Normally I wouldn't be so keen on getting involved with a horse who has been off the track for over a year, reappearing in a hot handicap, but William Haggas can bring horses back after absences to win (had an easy winner at York at the weekend who fit such a bill). It's especially less of a problem when you consider the form this horse was showing when last seen (progressive, won the Britannia at Royal Ascot on last run) and his profile suggests there's still more to come. Presuming he is fit enough to do himself justice, he could make 6/1 look a bit silly. The yard are in very good form and a good winner of such a good 1m handicap when last seen should have few issues with the conditions today. You'd need to stay a bit further than a mile if winning a big handicap like the Britannia at Ascot and I don't envisage this new trip being an issue. Finishes his races off well and has sufficient stamina in his pedigree. Notnowcato's progeny, much like himself, have a tendency to progress impressively. You only have to look at Chil the Kite and Custom Cut, as examples of horses who have gone from opening handicap marks of 83 and 73 to now be rated 108 and 109 respectively. I see no reason why Haggas' runner won't be able to make an impact in Group races himself and any cut in the ground won't inconvenience either. Paul Hanagan is 1-1 on this horse and also has a 33% strike rate when riding older (4+) horses for the trainer. Can overcome the absence and land the spoils I fancy this afternoon.

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Re: BBOTD Tuesday 29th July 305 Goodwood - Professor - 9/1 - 365, Hills So I am told it's lashing it down @ Goodwood - difficult enough course as it is!!! :( Mildly annoyed about this and the fact that Aljamaaheer wasn't aimed at the Sussex because I may have taken him to cause a shock at around 16/1 and he would have been penalty free - would have given us 8 runners in the Sussex too. Not sure soft ground is gonna help this ones chance and I think that could go against Producer too. 3yo's have a great record in the race having produced 46% of the winners from 31% of the runners since 2003. With that in mind Garswood may go well but had no excuse in the Jersey which is a Group 3 so I'll chance Professor at the odds. Has a bit of Selkirk in the breeding and has won on good to soft already so may not be inconvenienced by the underfoot conditions. Looks a tiny horse but still improving and has a good draw.

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Re: BBOTD Tuesday 29th July Yarm 2.40 - My Little Friend - win at 15/8 bog wm hill Poor seller for 2yo But something has to win it ! The current fave drops back from 7 furlongs and looks like a horse than wants further than that not shorter. Don't think she'll be suited by dropping back Both the fave and my selection finished 2nd last time but my one was over this trip and the winner has gone on to win again Final thing............apart from the unraced horse my selection is the only colt amongst fillies

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Re: BBOTD Tuesday 29th July 620 Worcester: Awaywiththegreys 3/1 PP Small field novice chase and i like the chances of Peter Bowen's horse Awaywiththegreys especially as two others are in front of him in the betting. Captian Kelly is fancied because of the Nicholls connection but doent look one of his best to me and may get outpaced in this small field. Special Account is one to watch out for in the future but is current form is a worry and needs holding up til the last minute, not easy to do with a few runners. Awaywithethegreys ran well over fences at Ffos Las when second to Prospect Wells, a reproduction of that will do here i reckon. He went for a nice prize at Cartmel last time over hurdles but is badly handicapped in that sphere and the track doesnt suit all so i'm happy to ignore that run.

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Re: BBOTD Tuesday 29th July

Goodwood Lennox Stakes In summary, I find it hard to knock the form of Aljamaaheer of late as he has been competing at the top level. He went very close in a Group 1 behind Declaration Of War and he won the Group 2 Summer Mile last time out, so this race is there for the taking for him tomorrow. Paul Hanagan is on a hot streak at the moment and he is settling in really well at his new role riding in the bigger races and the Roger Varian yard is in good form of late. Aljamaaheer - WIN @ 7/2 Bet365
Non-Runner Fencing - WIN @ 6/1 Hills Now with Aljamaaheer out of the field, the John Gosden horse should have a major chance. He won a Listed race very comfortably at Ascot two runs back, and will enjoy the bit of cut in the ground. Yard going well and has to be taken seriously.

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Re: BBOTD Tuesday 29th July

3.05 Goodwood - Producer 1pt win @ 10/3 Bet365 Sorry I wrote this last night before the fav came out. Obviously I now fancy this horse much more strongly but I have already backed him each way but I will put him up to win for this. I don't really like the term "each way bet to nothing" but Producer looks like that in this race in my opinion. The drop back in trip is surely against Aljamaaheer and Producer has already beaten him this season over 7f. The favourite is dropping back in trip from his best trip of a mile whereas Producer is racing at his optimum trip. Roger Varian has a recent record of 0 from 29 at Goodwood whereas Richard Hannon is the top trainer at the track. Both stables are in fine form at the moment as are both jockeys. Producer is a CD winner whereas Aljamaaheer finished placed here twice over a mile. When Producer beat Aljamaaheer earlier in the season, they were racing off level weights but today Aljamaaheer has to carry a penalty. I can't really see Producer out of the frame but I do see Aljamaaheer as the clear danger even if he is racing over a furlong shorter than ideal. Producer to me looks an excellent bet in this.

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Re: BBOTD Tuesday 29th July David Simcock yard isn't doing badly at all 6 winnners, 5 seconds and 3 thirds from 17 runners. He has 1 entered today Casper Netchar in 15:05 Goodwood. Casper Netcher is a 4 year old having 1st run for nearly a year but has won when fresh before. Has won 4 group races on various going. Is a distance winner and running for 1st time for David Simcock yard. 0.5pts EW 9/1 Bet365.

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Re: BBOTD Tuesday 29th July 19.50 Worcester Illysantachristina - 1PT Win 15/8 PaddyPower This horse was a non runner last night at Uttoxeter which may suggest that her new trainer, Rebecca Curtis, thought this race was more suitable for the her. She hasn't won since 2011 but she showed some signs of getting back to winning form last year in similar contests. The mark of 93 is the lowest she has had since back in 2011 and with the ground conditions unlikely to be a problem she should be involved at the finish. AP McCoy is also a noticeable jockey booking.

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Re: BBOTD Tuesday 29th July 6.20 Worcester AWAYWITHEGREYS..11/4 STAN JAMES...He should finally get his head in front, wrong track last time, today he is taking on weaker opposition and Worcester right up his street, can see him grinding out from a long way out...should be fav,,,what a price tonight, all aboard pay day..

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