cpo's anything goes

[cpo]

Back once again for the renegade master.... Haha Yes I am back again to give a thread another go. Recently completed the most stressful year of my life at University so I have plenty of time on my hands to give this a proper attempt. As the name of the thread implies, there are no rules to the thread in terms of which races I will play in or certain prices I will or won't take. If I feel something is worth backing I will back it. I thought today would be a good day to start as there are quite a few horses I fancy today. Probably keep stakes low to begin with as I seem to be hitting the bar with everything of late. Normal rules apply in terms of stakes ranging from 1 to 5 points and I will start off with a 200pt bank. Hope to improve on my last thread strike rate of about 1 winner in 50 selections... :hope

[cpo]

Re: cpo's anything goes 3.50 Ascot - Cirrus Des Aigles 2pts win @ 6/4 Bet365 Happy to take my chance with the highest rated horse in training. He does have to put a below par run behind him but he has a history of needing the run so I am happy to forgive that performance. He is now a 7 year old but he showed a couple of runs ago when finishing 2nd to Frankel that he still has plenty of ability. Everything looks set for a big run from the horse today as ground will be no problem and neither will the trip. Track won't be an issue and to me who looks a cut above these. The race should set up nicely for him with a couple of front runners in opposition and I am happy to take the price.

[cpo]

Re: cpo's anything goes 2.40 Ascot - Fehaydi 1pt EW @ 10/1 BetVictor Probably best to forgive his latest effort in a small field at Chepstow. His run over CD at Royal Ascot was massively eye-catching and I would rather take that piece of form on how I rate his chances today. The bigger field today should play to his strengths and Graham Lee takes over the steering. The yard are in fine form at the moment and with Cape Peron coming out, the race looks extremely open. Fehaydi would have finished much closer to Tarikhi at Royal Ascot with a clear run and is much better off at the weights with that one here. The Godolphin horse is half the price so I think Fehaydi is worth a bet in this.

[cpo]

Re: cpo's anything goes 3.30 York - Mississippi 1pt EW @ 14/1 Bet365 This horse is beginning to become frustrating but I have no doubts he has a big race in him. He travelled up nicely last time out but didn't find as much as expected but I think this 6f will suit him more. The yard are back in form now with 3 winners from their last 5 runners and I do think Paul Mulrennan is a good booking. I remember backing Diescentric when Mulrennan was on board and I can see him giving this horse a similar ride. It's an extremely competitive sprint though so fingers crossed we get a clear run. If doing so he could go close.

[cpo]

Re: cpo's anything goes 3.15 Ascot - Head of Steam 1pt EW @ 33/1 Bet365 I like this horse here at a big price. He won very nicely at Goodwood 2 runs ago beating some good horses in the process. He then backed that up with another solid effort over 8f at Salisbury where he finished 4th of 11. That day he pulled very hard and despite travelling powerfullly through the race, he didn't have anything left at the finish. If he can settle better today he could go close with the drop in trip being in his favour. Luke Morris is a good booking as he is in fine form at the moment. He did extremely well to get Brown Volcano up the other day. The trainer is also in decent nick and although she hasn't got the best record at this track, I think Head of Steam can go well.

[cpo]

Re: cpo's anything goes 4.40 York - Alexsandar 1pt EW @ 12/1 PaddyPower This horse is held by Dr Irv on his last run but I think the bigger field and hopefully stronger pace will help him turn the form around. He has been knocking on the door of late and deserves to get his head in front. Jim Goldie is in cracking form at the moment and Andrew Elliot has a couple of recent winners to his name. That run at Catterick behind Dr Irv was his first run at 2m so there could be more to come from him at this trip on ground that suits.

[cpo]

Re: cpo's anything goes Typical rubbish day so far! 4.25 Ascot - Space War 1pt win @ 16/1 Bet365 Bit of a quirky horse but goes well for this rider and did manage to win a few runs ago. Ran well again last time out and looked unlucky in the process. This stiff 7f should suit and he should be staying on well at the finish.

[cpo]

Re: cpo's anything goes 6 from 6 :unsure 2.55 Pontefract - Madrasa 3pts win @ 9/4 Bet365 This horse has been consistent all year and finally got his reward with a good win at Redcar last week. That was an apprentice race so he gets to race off the same mark today but his jockey Jacob Butterfield can claim his 7lbs tomorrow, which makes him very appealing. So really this horse is racing off a 7lb lower mark than when winning last week at Redcar. He does have a drop in trip to contend with but that shouldn't be a problem. The race looks slightly better than the one he won but he should go very close.

[Primevil]

Re: cpo's anything goes Yesterday was poor for everyone.

[cpo]

Re: cpo's anything goes

Yesterday was poor for everyone.

Cheers, yeh it was a pretty tough day yesterday.

[cpo]

Re: cpo's anything goes 3.05 Ascot - Saytara 2pts win @ 5/1 SkyBet I think this horse is very interesting returning from a break. She did need the reappearance last year but that run came on the all weather where she doesn't look as good on. She absolutely hammered a decent field on her last start of last season by 7 lengths and although she is up 13lbs for that win there could be more to come from her this year. She returns with the yard in cracking form and very few of her opposition in this arrive in good form. There is every chance she could need the run but I will take my chances that she can resume her progress first time out in what looks a winnable race.

[cpo]

Re: cpo's anything goes 4.15 Ascot - Take Two 2pts win @ 11/2 William Hill I like Take Two here who looks quite progressive despite a could of disappointing runs. He has won 3 of his last 5 and I feel excuses can be made for his 2 defeats. Soft ground may have been his undoing at York and at Haydock nothing went right for him as he stumbled and was hampered in the run. He was however back to winning ways at Nottingham under Hayley Turner and comes into this race on a 4lb higher mark. Ryan Moore takes the ride, which is a huge positive and I can see this progressive horse going in again with conditions to suit.

[cpo]

Re: cpo's anything goes 4.05 Pontefract - Aesop's Fables 3pts win @ 10/3 BetVictor Hasn't won since winning a group 1 at Chantilly this time last year but has put in some good efforts since and he should go well dropping back in grade. Fallon takes the ride and this horse has a great chance at these weights. AF ran well for along way on his return to action at Ascot before fading in the final furlong. That run should have brought him on plenty and he could prove tough to beat. Plenty of his rivals have to prove themselves at this grade, which is not the case for AF. This looks a good opportunity to get back to winning ways.

[cpo]

Re: cpo's anything goes 5.20 Ascot - Zero Money 1pt EW @ 16/1 Bet365 Zero Money was right back to form last time out over CD when finishing a fine 3rd. He did best of those racing up the centre of the track and he could go well from the front in this with Noel Garbutt taking off a useful 7lbs. This is a race he has ran well in before and he could prove tough to pass now the yard are in form as well since Short Squeeze won the other day. Every run of his career over CD has been a good one and most of them have come off higher marks. He has never beaten far over CD and I am hopeful he can at least make the places today.

[cpo]

Re: cpo's anything goes 11 from 11...losers :spank Thought Madrasa could have gone close with a clear run but other than that, nothing really threatened. Saytara ran well for a long way and will be of interest on her next start but may have just needed the run. Here's hoping Dermot Weld can pull me out of the ****ter :D

[cpo]

Re: cpo's anything goes Not going to put any reasoning for my Galway bets because I am simply going to back all of Dermot Weld's runners to a 1pt stake and see how many winners we can hit. It's well known now that he targets this festival and always has several winners. I am still going to back other horses at other meetings but every bet at Galway will be a Dermot Weld horse to a 1pt stake. 5.10 Galway - Diplomat 1pt win @ 11/10 Paddypower 6.10 Galway - Mustajeeb 1pt win @ wait for a price tomorrow 6.45 Galway - Notable Graduate 1pt win @ 8/1 Bet365 7.15 Galway - Peace Accord 1pt win @ 7/2 Bet365 7.45 Galway - Pay Day Kitten 1pt win @ 9/4 Bet365 8.15 Galway - Marty'g Magic 1pt win @ wait for price tomorrow

[cpo]

Re: cpo's anything goes 2.30 Ayr - Compton Heights 1pt EW @ 14/1 SkyBet I backed this horse last time out where he was pretty disappointing. He did have to wait a little bit for a gap to appear but took his time to pick up once it came. The slower ground here may just help him but I do feel he can be successful off around this mark. I like the fact Graham Lee is back on board tomorrow and Jim Goldie continues in good form.

[cpo]

Re: cpo's anything goes Totally forgot to add prices to the 2 that weren't priced up early. I will just take SP prices but in goes the 2nd Weld horse to make it 2 from 2 :D

[cpo]

Re: cpo's anything goes 1.55 Goodwood - Whispering Warrior 1.5pts EW @ 9/1 Bet365 This race is full of very talented handicappers but the one I like is the David Simcock trained Whispering Warrior. This horse looks as progressive as any in the field winning 5 times from his last 6 races. He won very cosily last time out off a 8lb higher mark than that off his previous win at York and I can see him going very well tomorrow in this. He is up another 8lbs in this much tougher race but its hard to tell how far this horse can go. He can do no more than win the races he has won in the manner in he has won in. His trainer is in cracking form at the moment and Jim Crowley is 4 from 4 on him. He is well drawn in 7 and I would be disappointed if he couldn't at least make the frame.

[cpo]

Re: cpo's anything goes 3.40 Goodwood - Silver Lime 1.5pts EW @ 7/1 PaddyPower This horse couldn't have been more impressive last time out when getting the better of Caravan Rolls on who is a decent horse. That was his first attempt at the trip but he had shown signs of needing the trip previous to that run. He really excelled last time out and he could be very tough to beat here with Ryan Moore doing the steering. Roger Charlton is in good form at the moment and has an excellent record at the track. A 7lb rise makes life much tougher here but he he is unexposed over this trip and will not mind any softening of the ground.

[cpo]

Re: cpo's anything goes 3.05 Goodwood - Producer 2pts EW @ 11/2 BetVictor I don't really like the term "each way bet to nothing" but Producer looks like that in this race in my opinion. The drop back in trip is surely against Aljamaaheer and Producer has already beaten him this season over 7f. The favourite is dropping back in trip from his best trip of a mile whereas Producer is racing at his optimum trip. Roger Varian has a recent record of 0 from 29 at Goodwood whereas Richard Hannon is the top trainer at the track. Both stables are in fine form at the moment as are both jockeys. Producer is a CD winner whereas Aljamaaheer finished placed here twice over a mile. When Producer beat Aljamaaheer earlier in the season, they were racing off level weights but today Aljamaaheer has to carry a penalty. I can't really see Producer out of the frame but I do see Aljamaaheer as the clear danger even if he is racing over a furlong shorter than ideal. Producer to me looks an excellent bet in this.

[cpo]

Re: cpo's anything goes 2.30 Goodwood - Sleeper King 2pts win @ 8/1 Bet365 This horse has proven he can handle the softening ground and he did show up for a long way at Royal Ascot before fading near the finish. This track may suit him more and I can see him going well. He doesn't have much to find with the main players here and Kevin Ryan has his strong in fine form at the moment.

[cpo]

Re: cpo's anything goes Wow it's just absolutely relentless... can't do a thing. Can't even get anything placed! Unbelievable :(

[cpo]

Re: cpo's anything goes 4.50 Goodwood - Head of Steam 2pts win @ 20/1 Ladbrokes Head of Steam will do well to carry 10 stone to victory in this but I like his chances. He won at the track a couple of runs ago over 7f but he should have no problem with the extra furlong. The ground is a slight worry as I don't think he wants it too soft but the jockeys have been reporting the ground to not be that bad. Amanda Perrett is in good form and does well here and hopefully this horse will bounce back to form after a poor run at Ascot.

[cpo]

Re: cpo's anything goes Galway Bets 5.05 Diplomat 2pts win @ 2/1 BetVictor 6.10 Tarfasha 2pts win @ 1/2 PaddyPower 6.45 Tandem 2pts win @ 4/1 Bet365 7.15 Galway Pirate Cove 2pts win @ 1/2 Hills 8.15 Galway Dancers Dilemma 1pt win @ 9/2 Bet365

[cpo]

Re: cpo's anything goes 1.55 Goodwood - First Avenue 1pt win @ 20/1 Bet365 First Avenue has a very modest strike rate on the flat with just 2 wins from 22 starts on turf but has a further 9 placed efforts. He does have to put a very disappointing effort at Lingfield behind him but I am happy to excuse that effort as it came under Aaron Chave who is a very inexperienced 7lb claimer. Previous to that run however, he finished an excellent 4th over 22f at Royal Ascot; of which a repeat would put him bang there. He has had very few attempts at staying trips on the flat but I think he is the type of horse that could excel in this type of race. Any more rain would be welcome as plenty of his best form in both codes has come with cut in the ground. His trainer Laura Mongan certainly knows the time of day and understands what it takes to ready a horse as she proved when this horse romped home in the Imperial Cup at Sandown earlier in the year. I like the look of this race for Frist Avenue as there should be plenty of pace on up top with the likes of Broxbourne, Beyond, Beyone Conceit and a few others liking to race prominently. I also feel this track will suit First Avenue who is a strong traveller and is capable of a fast finish even at the end of a staying race like this one. The downhill finish might just help him a little and I can see him travelling well into the race and finishing off really well. Any more rain would be welcome and would enhance his chance but he has proven he can handle any ground so it’s not imperative. He has won off a 1lb higher mark on the flat but that came all the way back in 2008 and that was in fact his last win on the flat. Last year he ran several excellent races on the flat with the best of them both coming at Epsom where he finished 2nd to Aiken and Universal respectively. His win in the Imperial Cup was a career best over jumps by some distance despite everything going in his favour. I am going to take a chance that he can bounce back to the form that seen him finish 4th in the Queen Alexandra Stakes 2 runs ago and go close in this. Laura Mongan is no stranger to having winners at this track although the booking of Jack Mitchell is a slight worry. He has a nice racing weight of 9-1 and is berthed in stall 8. He does have to go against the recent age trend for the winner of this race but he did me a favour earlier in the year so maybe he can dig me out of another hole.

[cpo]

Re: cpo's anything goes Going to lower my stakes until I can find a winner.... 2.30 Goodwood - Cap O'rushes 1pt win @ 4/1 PaddyPower This horse drops in grade here after an excellent run in the Irish Derby. The ground will not be an issue and he has improved with every run this season. He may have just needed the run on his return to action but he followed that with an excellent run in a hot handicap at Royal Ascot before finishing 4th in Ireland. The form of the Irish Derby was given a boost IMO by Trading Leather who finished an excellent 2nd behind Novellist the other day. 3.05 Goodwood - Dawn Approach 2pts win @ 11/10 Boylesports I am going to take the Godolphin horse to come out on top again in this. I think people forget what happened to this horse in the Derby and how unbelievably well he did to come back from that and win at Royal Ascot. Even in that race he was keen and was slightly hampered. He was passed at one point and still managed to battle back to get up on the line. I think with a proper preparation we will see the real Dawn Approach today and he will win this a little more comfortably.

[cpo]

Re: cpo's anything goes A rare day for me this month with me finding a winner and finishing a day in profit...just! 3.15 Goodwood - Mount Athos 4pts win @ 7/2 Bet365 Lets try and get this month off to a winning start. I am going to put up Mount Athos who I believe has a real touch of class about him and I would expect this to be a stepping stone to the Melbourne Cup later in the year. It’s hard to knock this horses form since joining Luca and IMO it will take an unlucky run or a very special performance to beat him tomorrow. Since switching to Luca Cumani’s yard Mount Athos has won 4 from 7 with valid excuses for the 3 defeats. It’s no surprise he was beaten last time out over a trip too short for him. If you look at the current 2^nd favourite for this race Brown Panther, Mount Athos absolutely slammed him this time last year at Newbury and I would expect it to be even easier for him over this longer trip. If he gets a clear run through I can’t see him getting beat. The ground will not be an issue as he has won on this ground before but he would prefer it quicker. Jamie Spencer knows the horse well and is in good form in the last couple of weeks with 9 winners. Luca Cumani is in even better form with 8 winners from 27 runners. He also has an excellent 23% striker rate at this track. He has also had 2 previous runs at the track where he ran well both times so that won’t be an issue tomorrow. If you look at recent runnings of this race, the favourite has won this 7 times in the last 9 years so that’s another plus point. Everything looks in his favour tomorrow for a massive run and I will be gutted if he gets beat as I am having a decent bet on him.

[cpo]

Re: cpo's anything goes 2.15 Goodwood – Tha’ir 2pts win @ 7/1 William Hill There are plenty of progressive horses in this race but I like the look of the Godolphin top weight here. He has regularly been mixing it in group company and only just made his handicap debut at Newmarket last time out. He was impressive in the end by just getting the better of Sennockian Star with the pair of them pulling 5 lengths clear of the 3^rd. Sennockian Star has since won easily off the same mark and really franked the form of that win. He is up 7lbs in a tougher race and does have to shoulder top weight but Grandeur managed to carry the same 9-7 to victory in this race last year. Saeed Bin Suroor and SDS continue in great form at the moment but SDS does have a very moderate record at this track, which is a worry. That being said I still think he has an excellent chance riding this horse. Ground won’t be an issue so fingers crossed for a big run.

[cpo]

Re: cpo's anything goes 3.45 Goodwood - Elik 3pts win @ 11/4 William Hill Elik returns to the scene of her only career victory but I think she has a cracking chance of making it 2 from 2 at this track. She has steadily progressed with every run and ran an absolute cracker in the Ribblesdale at Royal Ascot where she easily did the best of those that raced prominently. Everything else that raced up with the pace finished well beaten but Elik managed to plug on for 3rd. She ran that day as if a step up in trip would suit, which is what she gets in this. She is a winner at the track already and the form of the Ribblesdale has been given several boosts already. She gets almost a stone from last years winner Wild Coco, which could make a huge difference as that one is also returning from a lengthy break (she won this last year from a lengthy absence). I just think everything looks in her favour tomorrow. Step up in trip should suit, trainer and jockey in great form, lack of opposition and a race that is a bit of a graveyard for favourites in recent seasons.