2013/14 RaboDirect Pro 12

[Spankyf]

Antepost Betting Looking at last season, the top 3 Irish sides were the best Rabo performers including European competitions. Leinster bowed out early to Clermont in the Hein but won the Amlin Cup. Munster played a blinder in the knockout games and very nearly shocked Clermont in the Semi. Not a lot of people saw that coming, especially coming a week after a drubbing away to Glasgow, who had a superb league campaign themselves. The Irish media prattle's on about Penney changing the Munster playing style but his first year was always going to be a tough one with a lot of change. The backroom coaching staff changed, O'Gara and Howlett had their swansongs; Keatley began to establish himself but Murray didn't get much game time in the league (and Duncan Williams isn't up to scratch yet); O'Connell was out for all the season pretty much up til the Heineken knockout stages and the rest of their pack needed leaders to emerge. For all those caveats, they'll be a bound group this campaign with strong young players having taken their chance to be noticed: O'Donnell, Archer, Sherry, Dave O'Callaghan, Kilcoyne, Dougall and especially Ryan and O'Mahony look like they'll all wear and bleed red for a while to come. I think the backline has more to prove this season but with a bit of gelling they'll be ready to shine and I hope to see Hanrahan and O'Dea have good campaigns. Signing Conway from Leinster was a savvy move. The Celtic/Magners/Rabo has had knockout playoffs in 2001-02, 02-03, and every season since 2009-10. Of those 6 knockout seasons, Munster have contested the final 3 times and won twice. With a handy enough Heineken pool, I think the exposure to the Penney 'way' for a young, 90%+ Irish squad will bring a lot of front line experience to bear and they should be able to take responsibility and perform well in the league. Of the other sides, Leinster are an unknown quantity for me this year with a new coach. I hope Glasgow can back up their league performance last year and stay competitive. They've a very settled team and injuries aside, I expect a strong season from them. I'd be looking at them to make the playoffs when the odds appear. Ospreys - like Munster - would have been annoyed not to have made the playoffs and their odd's are juicy too. I might have a think about a smaller play on them, given they've won the most times (4). Fotuali'i is a massive loss though. Ulster crossed my mind but given they've been in with a chance for a major title last two seasons and got hammered each time (albeit by one of the most ruthless knockout performers in Leinster), I just can't trust them to get over the line. Scarlets haven't a hope with a lot of front-liners sold to English clubs. My strategy for outrights is usually to pick teams who'll get there or thereabouts and with that price there'll be room to lay if they make the playoffs. Munster to Win Grand Final @ 7/1 SportingBet

[Spankyf]

Re: 2013/14 RaboDirect Pro 12 Munster Edinburgh I’ll be looking to back Munster as much as I can this year. The squad is settled, Penney has had a season to bed in and there’s a definite feeling of the changing of the guard with a lot of legends retiring (Howlett, O’Gara, Horan) and O’Mahony appointed captain. They’ve made a strong league performance a priority and I expect them to go a long way. As I said before, Williams at 9 does concern me but Sheridan is an excellent prospect and Sheridan will have to raise his game (same goes for Keatley / Hanrahan at outhalf). Strong back division for this game while the pack is peppered with international experience. Edinburgh are where Munster were last season. Alan Solomons was the coach for Super XV side Kings and has had just 3 weeks with the Scottish outfit. Both himself and captain Laidlaw stated they’ll be ditching the champagne stuff from the last few years which patently didn’t work for them. No surprise so that the South African will be looking to make them strong defensively and leave Visser to take care of the meat pies. Time with the squad has been at a premium but they’ve also been hampered by missing players with quite a few early injuries and key internationals Laidlaw, Visser, Scott & Walker all rested. I like a lot of their forwards and there’s been a few recruits that look the part so I would think they might compete for the 1^st but the bench looks light. It’s at Musgrave Park which is no Thomond but I can see the tide turning late on in the game. Munster 2^nd half handicap -5 @ 2

[Spankyf]

Re: 2013/14 RaboDirect Pro 12 Ospreys Dragons Ospreys look as though they've let another season pass them by in Europe already. A match against the Dragons should be just the tonic. After last weekends tough loss at Northampton they start with a very strong XV with a 7/8 record vs Dragons at the Liberty stadium. Just the two home games this season in the Rabo, beating Edinburgh by 34 and losing against Ulster after a 2nd half capitulation. I think the motivation to avenge successive defeats in front of their fans will be huge. Interesting option in the half backs with the elegant Morgan at 10/Habberfield at 9 due to dropping Fussel altogether and the berated Tebaldi on the bench. They won this fixture 52-19 in the 2012-13 Rabo. Dragons competed admirably in the Amlin and have been a surprise in the league beating the bookie cap in 4/5 games. Seven changes from the Amlin game at Bath with Tovey out and Burton at fly half and a debutant hooker. I think they caught Ulster cold in the season curtain raiser and haven't bolstered the squad a great deal. According to captain Coombs, they will be expecting " a difficult evening... I am sure if we start as we started against Scarlets, full of confidence and ambition to run the ball, we just need to go there and challenge them." I think a territory game like both Irish teams' victory at the Liberty is the only way to prevail and while Burton can provide that at 10, I don't think they'll stay the distance. Ospreys -12 @ 1.90 Ospreys -18 @ 2.90

[Nobber]

Re: 2013/14 RaboDirect Pro 12 Good call - Ospreys covered both spreads easily. I think the O's will continue to struggle against the better sides until they get the No 9 position sorted.

[wprathead]

Re: 2013/14 RaboDirect Pro 12 Connacht v Glasgow 5pm Kick Off PP Total Points: Under 30.5 @ 5/6 Bucketing Rain and winds up to 70 knots swarming around the Sportsground.. this gonna be a low scoring game

[wprathead]

Re: 2013/14 RaboDirect Pro 12 Connacht 12-19 Glasgow 31 points :wall

[Spankyf]

Re: 2013/14 RaboDirect Pro 12 Edinburgh Connacht Edinburgh have seen a slight uptick in performance levels under Alan Solomons. Defence has improved and they are a bit more consistent. 3 home wins from 4 in the Rabo (albeit against weaker opposition) and that great win against Munster in the Heineken Cup shows he’s moving them in the right direction. They don’t score a huge pile and are without try machine Visser. They welcome back leader Laidlaw and 3 other internationals from the Autumn series. Connacht have a relatively strong starting XV with a few players returning from injury. Frank Murphy is on the bench after a year of injuries along with Muldoon and Eoin McKeon is back after 3 months. Wilkinson is injured but Loughney is an able replacement. Do think they’ll be angry after losing to Scarlets at home last week (a team Edinburgh lost by 9-22 at Murrayfield in September) and Parks should be up for any game in Scotland. They have picked up bonus points so far and should be good for a losing bonus here at least (Edinburgh covered a -7 only once since the start of 2012-13 league and that was against Zebre). Connacht always a risky side to back – especially away – but they won here last season and Edinburgh shouldn’t be more than -6 for me. Connacht +9 @ 1.90

[Spankyf]

Re: 2013/14 RaboDirect Pro 12 Ulster Zebre Ulster demolished Treviso home and away to put themselves in pole position for a home quarter in the Heineken Cup. They rest a lot of those front liners in Fridays game. The backline is second string though not without quality in Pienaar & Gilroy but the pack is a little ropey looking without Best or Afoa in the 23. Zebre are crap of course but have beaten 4/5 handicaps away so far in the Rabo and covered +21 in 4/5 away. Quite close to full strength team for them. I hate taking large home handicaps and with a forecast of heavy rain and winds the risk on backing Zebre is mitigated. They have a decent chance of a bonus point tomorrow as long as they show up. Zebre +20.5 @ 1.9 I don't bet with SkyBet but if you do i'd recommend taking Zebre @ 26 and trading Ulster in-play. A lot of their 1x2 odds have been way off in the Rabo & Top14 in the last few days and there are opportunities provided Zebre keep close or go in front at some point.

[Nobber]

Re: 2013/14 RaboDirect Pro 12 Jesus Spankyf, I thought you'd lost it there when I saw you'd tipped this one up. But Ulster by only 7 points, who's have thought that ? Can't praise you enough for this one and I hope you paid for Xmas, very, very, well done.

[Spankyf]

Re: 2013/14 RaboDirect Pro 12

Jesus Spankyf' date=' I thought you'd lost it there when I saw you'd tipped this one up. But Ulster by only 7 points, who's have thought that ?[/quote'] :rollin Haha! This betting lark requires a contrarian viewpoint a lot of the time, well happy it worked out tonight. Thanks anyways Nob!

[Marazan]

Re: 2013/14 RaboDirect Pro 12 It's that time of year where the weather turns grim but the bookies don't adjust their handicaps accordingly.

[Spankyf]

Re: 2013/14 RaboDirect Pro 12 Dragons Edinburgh Dragons home form a lot better this season as their playoff position suggests. It's probably also an indictment of how badly Connacht, Cardiff and Treviso are doing. They haven't lost too many players to the Welsh squad and have named their strongest XV. Edinburgh come into this game without having played away since November because of postponements & Europe. They have a huge chunk of the squad playing in internationals (7's, Calcutta Cup & the U20's). As a result there are a few new faces in the team with a sprinkling of South Africans making their debut. Dragons lost by 4 against top teams Leinster & Munster but put away the challenge of Ulster, Cardiff, Zebre & Scarlets at Rodney Parade. Edinburgh have lost their four away games and haven't managed a bonus point yet in those fixtures. In the first halves, Edinburgh covered +3 1/4 games (average +12) and Dragons 4/6 (average -4). There's a pitch inspection at 9am after Newport County FC had their 5th home postponement because of the weather so the odds are that this game will be called off. I'm hoping it won't as I think the bookies are overestimating Edinburgh's potential here. I'm taking the generous first half handicap available with Bet365 and the FT cap too. Dragons 1st half handicap -2.5 @ 2.0 Dragons -5 @ 1.91

[Spankyf]

Re: 2013/14 RaboDirect Pro 12 Round 18 [TABLE=class: couponTable]

[TR] [TH=class: firstColumn]Friday 28 March 2014[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Glasgow Warriors v Ospreys (19:35 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.61 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 23 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2.5 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]106.25 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR] [TH] [/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn]Saturday 29 March 2014[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Zebre v Newport Gwent Dragons (15:00 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.31 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 12.5 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.34 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]158.96 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Benetton Treviso v Edinburgh (18:00 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.11 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 12.5 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.21 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]180.73 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Cardiff Blues v Ulster (18:30 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.21 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 12.5 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.11 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]180.73 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Leinster v Munster (19:00 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.47 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 26 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.35 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]101.72 % [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Rest of odds coming tomorrow. Big game in the Aviva on Saturday.

[Aidymac]

Re: 2013/14 RaboDirect Pro 12 [TABLE=class: couponTable, width: 617]

[TR] [TH=class: firstColumn]Friday 18 April 2014[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Leinster v Benetton Treviso (17:00 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.05[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]81[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]21[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]101.23 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Glasgow Warriors v Ulster (19:35 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.69[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]29[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.42[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]103.94 %[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[Aidymac]

Re: 2013/14 RaboDirect Pro 12 [TABLE=class: odds allOdds]

[TR=class: AO0] [TD=class: ChartFormButtons, bgcolor: #FCE3E2, align: center][/TD] [TD=class: Competitor, bgcolor: #FCE3E2]Glasgow Warriors[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O, bgcolor: #FCE3E2, align: center]1.16[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O, bgcolor: #FCE3E2, align: center]1.16[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O U, bgcolor: #FFC8C8, align: center]1.16[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd B, bgcolor: #FCE3E2, align: center]1.2[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O, bgcolor: #FCE3E2, align: center]1.16[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd B X, bgcolor: #EBEBFD, align: center]1.21[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: AO1] [TD=class: ChartFormButtons, bgcolor: #FFF6F6, align: center][/TD] [TD=class: Competitor, bgcolor: #FFF6F6]Draw[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd B, bgcolor: #FFF6F6, align: center]27[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O, bgcolor: #FFF6F6, align: center]26[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O, bgcolor: #FFF6F6, align: center]26[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O, bgcolor: #FFF6F6, align: center]26[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O, bgcolor: #FFF6F6, align: center]25[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O X, bgcolor: #F5F5FF, align: center]23[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: AO0] [TD=class: ChartFormButtons, bgcolor: #FCE3E2, align: center][/TD] [TD=class: Competitor, bgcolor: #FCE3E2]Edinburgh[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O, bgcolor: #FCE3E2, align: center]4.95[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O, bgcolor: #FCE3E2, align: center]4.9[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd B, bgcolor: #FCE3E2, align: center]5[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O, bgcolor: #FCE3E2, align: center]4.33[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O, bgcolor: #FCE3E2, align: center]4.65[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O X hover, bgcolor: #EBEBFD, align: center]2.38[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[Aidymac]

Re: 2013/14 RaboDirect Pro 12 [TABLE=class: couponTable, width: 617]

[TR] [TH=class: firstColumn]Thursday 1 May 2014[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Zebre v Ospreys (17:00 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]4.6[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]26[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.34[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]100.21 %[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[Spankyf]

Re: 2013/14 RaboDirect Pro 12 Can't access the odds-comparison website so here's the odds in another format. All games at 13:30 GMT Saturday. Handicaps quoted generally available at 1.91 [TABLE]

[TR] [TD]Home [/TD] [TD]Away[/TD] [TD]HW[/TD] [TD]AW[/TD] [TD]Home Cap[/TD] [TD]Away Cap[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Leinster[/TD] [TD]Edinburgh[/TD] [TD]1.01[/TD] [TD]17[/TD] [TD]-23.5[/TD] [TD]23.5[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Munster[/TD] [TD]Ulster[/TD] [TD]1.03[/TD] [TD]11[/TD] [TD]-21.5[/TD] [TD]21.5[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Ospreys[/TD] [TD]Connacht[/TD] [TD]1.062[/TD] [TD]8.5[/TD] [TD]-16.5[/TD] [TD]16.5[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Scarlets[/TD] [TD]Cardiff[/TD] [TD]1.36[/TD] [TD]3.2[/TD] [TD]-6.5[/TD] [TD]6.5[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Dragons[/TD] [TD]Treviso[/TD] [TD]1.36[/TD] [TD]3.2[/TD] [TD]-6.5[/TD] [TD]6.5[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Glasgow[/TD] [TD]Zebre[/TD] [TD]1.03[/TD] [TD]11[/TD] [TD]-21.5[/TD] [TD]21.5[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[Spankyf]

Re: 2013/14 RaboDirect Pro 12 Glasgow Zebre Glasgow need just the win realistically to get a home semi final as even if Munster get the 5 points at home to Ulster, they will stay behind Glasgow as Townsends men would rack up their 18^th win. Unlike Ulster, Zebre have plenty to fight for on their trip. A better result than Treviso will give them the entry to the European cup next year. Glasgow have a new combo at centre in this one with Dunbar returning and have 6 changes in the pack, with a first start for Nakawara. Zebre miss Leonard but the new scrum half Palazzani was the match winner last week in the dramatic win at home to Ospreys so he should be up for this. Otherwise good continuity from last week and no reason not to go out all guns blazing. Glasgow have not covered this handicap all season at home and just the once away – at Treviso last game. They are close to the top of the league due to their defence and not their scoring, which is the lowest average for all teams at home in the league. Zebre have fallen to this handicap 30% of games away (Dragons, Munster & Leinster) and once at home to Munster. Glasgow are undoubtedly the better team but I think this is another case of Zebre being underrated with the bookmakers having covered 70% of away caps in the Pro 12. Happy to back them here given their current form and the fact they only lost by 3 in this fixture last season. When the market appears I will also back 'Glasgow to win both halves - No'. Zebre +20.5 @ 1.91

[Aidymac]

Re: 2013/14 RaboDirect Pro 12 [TABLE=class: couponTable, width: 617]

[TR] [TH=class: firstColumn]Friday 16 May 2014[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Glasgow Warriors v Munster (19:35 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.85[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]23[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.16[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]104.70 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR] [TH] [/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn]Saturday 17 May 2014[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Leinster v Ulster (19:00 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.45[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]23[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.1[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]105.57 %[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]