Jump to content
Announcements
** November Poker League Result : 1st ian309, 2nd juanmoment, 3rd McG **
** Football Tipster Competition Result : 1st Soi Bongkot, 2nd fischer21, 3rd chillymonster, 4th Pempi, 5th patriciamarc **
** October Naps Competition Result: 1st sirspread, 2nd kenisbusy, 3rd Artie77, 4th Mick33. KO Cup Winner: The Equaliser, Most Winners: CS333 **

Wimbledon 2013


Recommended Posts

Re: Wimbledon 2013

Hi all for me today im gone take Bartoli , i think the odds on her are very high, especially when we know she play good tennis in this tournament. Tthis is the surface where she is more comfortable i think, plus she dont concede a set at this time I find insane value odds (for me) on +1.5set @1.73 at betcity 7/10u Bartoli is very close to win that Wimbly (a big chance for her career), she can take a revenge on last H2H in Wimbledon 2011 (Lisicki 3-0 Bartoli) Good Luck All (France Women in soccer @1.33 look a good price too):spank
Marion does the job 6-1 1st set
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 385
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Re: Wimbledon 2013

M.bartoli vs S.Lisicki. Over 2.5 sets @ 2.37 bet365. Bartoli cruised through to the final with an easy win in just over an hour i fancy her to win but safer option for me is taking 3 sets as i can just as likely see Lisicki taking it in 3, ill be suprised if it ends 2-0 to either player.
Lisicki just didn't turn up, congratz to bartoli should have just gone with her outright :\
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: Wimbledon 2013 Murray to beat Djokovic 2.55 Pinnacle (6/10 points) Djokovic when defending the backhand side, or when going laterally to his left you could say and side lunging out wide to play an offensive defensive backhand has to then recover his position, change direction and be ready for the next shot (Or even return to the center of the baseline) that is something he heavily relies on on a hardcourt. It's a luxury that he can't afford on the grass (Particularly this season's grass) as it is slippery. We saw him slipping but still skillfully improvising many times against Del Potro. It's also why Del Potro was able to hit through him more often than you find he is able to on a hardcourt, he wasn't recovering his positing after side-lunging and doing the 3/4 splits. Murray doesn't use the side-lunge and 3/4 split, he uses his slice to reach out at those well hit shots and attempt to neutralise the rally (And at bonus give his opponent a semi-difficult and unable to do much with ball) If Novak side-lunges (3/4 split) when moving to his left and hitting a backhand, I can't see him recovering in time to be in good preparation for the next shot, Murray's going to therefore have natural control of the point. If Novak then goes to the slice instead, he doesn't really have the feel to slice it back, effectively. If Murray gets set on his forehand and goes inside out with pace, with Novak at the center of the baseline, Novak may find it difficult to do what he usually does (Sidestep lunge, 3/4 splits)and then recover for the next shot.

22 seconds (Where he does the splits to keep him on an even keel) this is one example I could find, I am sure there's many, but I can't see him being about to do this on a grass consistently whilst avoiding slipping and being able to recover for his next shot. It's a core part of his game and vitally crucial against the top player that's movement is good.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: Wimbledon 2013 Okay, I've had a look and the following take my fancy: Who will request the 1st hawkeye challenge - Murray @ 1.769 with Pinnacle (4/10) Murray has made 24 challenges this tournament compared to Djokovic's 12. This is to a certain extent luck but the odds are an implied probability of 56.53% and Murray's had 67% of the challenges between these two players. Will the 1st hawkeye challenge be successful - no @ 1.351 with Pinnacle (4/10) Both of the players together boast a record of 5 correct out of 36 challenges (13.8%), the 1.351 odds suggest a 25.98% likelihood of success for each so this is again value based on their prior stats during the tournament. Of course there is the opportunity that the line judges will be nervous and make the wrong calls (although the same could be said about the players) but this represents value. How many games will be played in the 1st set - 11 games or more @ 2.7 with Pinnacle (4/10) Both players have been serving incredibly well, Djokovic hasn't been broken in the first set all tournament although Murray has. Murray will know the importance of holding and not giving away any poor games early on so both players should play confidently to begin with. Both sets they've played on grass have covered this line as well as 3 of their last 4 matches. Total number of aces in the match - Under 23.5 aces @ 1.833 with Pinnacle (5/10) None of the matches they've played against each other have had 24 or more aces. Neither have conceded 12 aces in a match so far this tournament. These are the two greatest returners on the tour so unless this goes to four tie-breaks or five sets I see little chance of this coming off. Fastest Serve by Andy Murray - Under 132.5mph @ 2.2 with Pinnacle (3/10) This is a bit of a gamble, Murray's fastest serve is 133mph and with the adrenaline running through his body this could lose. However I feel like Murray will need to play controlled and will aim to move Djokovic about on the first serve. Djokovic is so good defending with the serve down the T so Murray will look to vary his serve up. Fingers crossed, good luck to anyone who follows on any of these :hope

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: Wimbledon 2013

Okay, I've had a look and the following take my fancy: Who will request the 1st hawkeye challenge - Murray @ 1.769 with Pinnacle (4/10) Murray has made 24 challenges this tournament compared to Djokovic's 12. This is to a certain extent luck but the odds are an implied probability of 56.53% and Murray's had 67% of the challenges between these two players. Will the 1st hawkeye challenge be successful - no @ 1.351 with Pinnacle (4/10) Both of the players together boast a record of 5 correct out of 36 challenges (13.8%), the 1.351 odds suggest a 25.98% likelihood of success for each so this is again value based on their prior stats during the tournament. Of course there is the opportunity that the line judges will be nervous and make the wrong calls (although the same could be said about the players) but this represents value. How many games will be played in the 1st set - 11 games or more @ 2.7 with Pinnacle (4/10) Both players have been serving incredibly well, Djokovic hasn't been broken in the first set all tournament although Murray has. Murray will know the importance of holding and not giving away any poor games early on so both players should play confidently to begin with. Both sets they've played on grass have covered this line as well as 3 of their last 4 matches. Total number of aces in the match - Under 23.5 aces @ 1.833 with Pinnacle (5/10) None of the matches they've played against each other have had 24 or more aces. Neither have conceded 12 aces in a match so far this tournament. These are the two greatest returners on the tour so unless this goes to four tie-breaks or five sets I see little chance of this coming off. Fastest Serve by Andy Murray - Under 132.5mph @ 2.2 with Pinnacle (3/10) This is a bit of a gamble, Murray's fastest serve is 133mph and with the adrenaline running through his body this could lose. However I feel like Murray will need to play controlled and will aim to move Djokovic about on the first serve. Djokovic is so good defending with the serve down the T so Murray will look to vary his serve up. Fingers crossed, good luck to anyone who follows on any of these :hope
Interesting analysis. Best of luck :ok
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: Wimbledon 2013 Back Andy Murray to beat Novak Djokovic for a 3/10 stake at 2.50 with Bwin It is hard to say much when it comes to these matches, but I have to fancy Murray at this price. He has been knocking on the gates of Wimbledon for long enough and he now seems to be in the ideal position to win it, so I can see him overcoming even someone like Djokovic. It should be a great game and I am sure that we are going to see plenty of amazing rallies - and I will certainly be siding with Murray at these odds. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/murray-vs-djokovic-betting-andy-murray-looks-set-to-capture-the-title-this-time-around-20130706

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: Wimbledon 2013 The tips on here are 2-0 in favour of Murray at the moment and I find that baffling. Djokovic was around 1.14 to beat Del Potro and is around 1.6 to beat Murray. Why the massive difference in prices? Is it simply because Murray is a member of the 'Big Four?' To me, the odds on Djokovic should have been around the 1.3 mark in both the Del Potro and Murray matches. Bookies seem reluctant to offer someone from the 'Big Four' at any sort of decent odds - in a game like this I think that provides us with big value on the favourite, ie Djokovic. Murray's record in Grand Slam finals is 1-5. Djokovic's is (I think) 6-4. If you take the 'new Djokovic' (from 2011 onwards) his record is 6-2. What is the Grand Slam record between these two? I can only think of one Murray win. Djokovic is totally dominant in the head-to-heads and the only major win which Murray had between them came with some serious help from the wind anyway. Granted, grass is the one surface Murray COULD compete with Djokovic on. However, I feel Djokovic is on top of his game on grass and Murray is not at his best on grass at the moment. I think Djokovic will match 2011 in terms of the specific Grand Slams he wins this year. 3-2 Djokovic would be my prediction if pushed. I already have big money riding on Djokovic (effectively a free bet, as I get my stake back if Murray wins) from the start of the tournament and I think I'll have bets on the result being either 3-1 Djokovic or 3-2 Djokovic tomorrow.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: Wimbledon 2013 Back Andy Murray to beat Novak Djokovic @ 2.52 >Betfair I can't add too much to the above, except to say that I've taken a similar price as I agree that Murray is too long. He beat Djokovic at the Olympics last year on grass, and even though this match is over the longer format I still think that could be a factor. Also, Djokovic's last match was much more physically demanding than Murray's. Djokovic says that he will be fine for the final, but he is bound to say that. If this turns out to be a long match, and I think there is every chance it will, then that might help Murray. I suppose one reservation I have is that Djokovic has already won this title, whereas Murray hasn't and so it's possible that he won't be able to deal with the enormity of the situation. However, he won the US Open last season and beat Djokovic to do it, which should help to cancel that out. Last year when he played Federer in the final here not only was he trying to become the first Brit to win Wimbledon in 76 years, he was also trying to win his first Grand Slam. This year he won't have the Grand Slam monkey on his back, and so he might not feel under so much pressure. Murray looks increasingly as though he feels he belongs in matches like this, and his confidence has surely increased in the last year or so, which is no surprise with what he has achieved. Winning Wimbledon would obviously top all of those achievements, and I think Murray might just be able to do it this year.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: Wimbledon 2013

The tips on here are 2-0 in favour of Murray at the moment and I find that baffling. Djokovic was around 1.14 to beat Del Potro and is around 1.6 to beat Murray. Why the massive difference in prices? Is it simply because Murray is a member of the 'Big Four?' To me, the odds on Djokovic should have been around the 1.3 mark in both the Del Potro and Murray matches. Bookies seem reluctant to offer someone from the 'Big Four' at any sort of decent odds - in a game like this I think that provides us with big value on the favourite, ie Djokovic. Murray's record in Grand Slam finals is 1-5. Djokovic's is (I think) 6-4. If you take the 'new Djokovic' (from 2011 onwards) his record is 6-2. What is the Grand Slam record between these two? I can only think of one Murray win. Djokovic is totally dominant in the head-to-heads and the only major win which Murray had between them came with some serious help from the wind anyway. Granted, grass is the one surface Murray COULD compete with Djokovic on. However, I feel Djokovic is on top of his game on grass and Murray is not at his best on grass at the moment. I think Djokovic will match 2011 in terms of the specific Grand Slams he wins this year. 3-2 Djokovic would be my prediction if pushed. I already have big money riding on Djokovic (effectively a free bet, as I get my stake back if Murray wins) from the start of the tournament and I think I'll have bets on the result being either 3-1 Djokovic or 3-2 Djokovic tomorrow.
You think Djokovic should be 1.3 yet you think he'll win 3-2? If I thought a match was likely to go 5 sets I would much rather be laying than backing 1.3! Also the stats you quote ignore the fact that Djokovic isn't quite at the same level he was in 2011 and Murray is a different animal to 5 years ago. Basically, most people perceive that Murray is finally starting to achieve the champion's mindset that he used to lack. Also they consider that his level of play right now on grass is at least on a par with Djokovic's. Djokovic is obviously being given favouritism as he has 'been there and done it' more than Murray has but I certainly couldn't make him 1.3 and I agree with others here that this is a pick'em match and Murray should be backed. Also I like RuleBritannia's analysis above, I agree, Murray's movement is better on grass.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: Wimbledon 2013 I think Djokovic will win today, but the prices aren't tempting at all. More value on Murray at first glance as it will surely be a 4 or 5 setter. But I really don't think Murray is playing well enough to beat Novak today. He has had a ridiculously easy draw yet is still making a pig's ear of it, Verdasco would have taken him out if he had some stones and came to the net more often. And Janowicz in a slam semi is laughable really, he is just not ready for that match but acquitted himself well winning a set but his return game, baseline game needs alot of work to compete with a top player. Big plus for Murray is the crowd behind him and Djokovic won't like that as we've seen in other events like the French where the crowd supports Fed and Nadal against him. But Murray is giving chances on his second serve and I fancy Djokovic to get into plenty of his service games and take this in 4 or 5. No bets for me though, but it's been a very profitable grass season.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: Wimbledon 2013 I'd price it Novak 1.8 Murray 2.1 Cant say Murray is playing as well as Djokovic though, just need to look at the semi-finals to see that. Djokovic faced a player who would have taken out most of the tour with his performance, but for 2 or 3 players.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: Wimbledon 2013 I assume the Wimbledon officials will request that Djok shave off those stubs on the side of his shoes? Against Del po he was slipping all over the place after having to do that while prior to that match he didn't slip at all. I would have to assume that Lendl knows that and will try to get Andy to hit behind Djok as much as possible. Djok will probably somehow request that he be able to wear those shows with the stubs on the sides again, but I doubt the officials will let him. Regardless of this I am taking Murray at +145 (sorry, I am american) and over 41.5 -130, both 5dimes. I was surprised to see the line this high, was expecting, maybe Djok -140, Andy +120, so seems like a no brainer to me to take the dog here.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: Wimbledon 2013

The tips on here are 2-0 in favour of Murray at the moment and I find that baffling. Djokovic was around 1.14 to beat Del Potro and is around 1.6 to beat Murray. Why the massive difference in prices? Is it simply because Murray is a member of the 'Big Four?' To me, the odds on Djokovic should have been around the 1.3 mark in both the Del Potro and Murray matches. Bookies seem reluctant to offer someone from the 'Big Four' at any sort of decent odds - in a game like this I think that provides us with big value on the favourite, ie Djokovic. Murray's record in Grand Slam finals is 1-5. Djokovic's is (I think) 6-4. If you take the 'new Djokovic' (from 2011 onwards) his record is 6-2. What is the Grand Slam record between these two? I can only think of one Murray win. Djokovic is totally dominant in the head-to-heads and the only major win which Murray had between them came with some serious help from the wind anyway. Granted, grass is the one surface Murray COULD compete with Djokovic on. However, I feel Djokovic is on top of his game on grass and Murray is not at his best on grass at the moment. I think Djokovic will match 2011 in terms of the specific Grand Slams he wins this year. 3-2 Djokovic would be my prediction if pushed. I already have big money riding on Djokovic (effectively a free bet, as I get my stake back if Murray wins) from the start of the tournament and I think I'll have bets on the result being either 3-1 Djokovic or 3-2 Djokovic tomorrow.
Why are you asking whether it's because Murray is a member of the big four? It's like you want it to be the reason?, so you can be proved "genius". Yes, we're all influenced cause he's number 2 in the world and really Djokovic is head and shoulders the best player in the world. :zzz We all provided reasons other than that of, he is a member of the top 4, so why are you saying you don't understand why we are going for him? Perhaps try reading? You've basically supported the argument that Murray comes closer to Djokovic on grass, but then said however bla bla bla...... so then how can you say Djokovic should be 1.3? All these stats in grandslam head to heads aren't as significant as you think, player's develop over the years and these stats therefore count for very little. Their Australian Open semi final encounter in 2012 was incredibly close. I don't think it is clear cut whether Dokovic is the better player than Murray, on grass. Certainly on hardcourt, Novak's sheer amazing athletism and movement wins him the upper hand, but having watched the highlights of their match at the Olympics on youtube, I am not so sure Djoker has his number on a grasscourt. Murray has a better first serve also, so a lot will be to do with with howmany first serves he can make and at what times. He also needs to avoid serving outwide to Djoker's clear strength, his backhand on the second serve. If Murray had a better second serve, I'd be more confident than I am now. Just think a lot of people are underestimating the importance of the surface here, hardcourt is mainly only where both of these two have really competed against each other. I have yet to see Djoker beat a really good player on grass in fine form. With movement being less valuable, this is so even. It's fine if you think Djokovic will win but don't try and say you "don't understand" when both me and Czech gave long articulate reasons. Murray posseses just as much power at his disposal and even class in those the longer rallies IMO. Where Novak's ahead is in terms of movement. Murray's a great mover but Novak's an exceptional mover. That's why he has defensive to offensive class in the longer rallies. Novak's an exceptional mover and will need to move exceptionally tomorrow, wheather he will on this grass where it's harder to change direction, is the question for me. :) I reckon not and it's why it becomes even more of an even contest for me. Home tie for Andy and therefore he's the value at this price. Try thinking more outside of the box. ;)
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: Wimbledon 2013

I'd price it Novak 1.8 Murray 2.1 Cant say Murray is playing as well as Djokovic though, just need to look at the semi-finals to see that. Djokovic faced a player who would have taken out most of the tour with his performance, but for 2 or 3 players.
I think he would have taken out all of the tour except for the ONE player he faced. Don't think there are 2 or 3 players who would have beaten him.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: Wimbledon 2013 Djokovic to beat Murray 8/13 Paddy Power I must admit that last week I thought this was Murray's tournament but having seen both players matches since then the conclusion I came to is that Djokovic's level has been extremely high whereas Murray's is not as high. Djokovic was taken the distance by the power hitting of Del Potro but that match produced a lot of quality tennis a shot making. Murray struggled against both Verdasco and Janowicz and worryingly against both suffered monumental lapses (in the first and second sets against Verdasco and first and third against Janowicz). The Djokovic serve is not easily broken therefore it is necessary to keep thinks tight with him and wait for the one or two opportunities you might get. Murray completely lost his focus in the tiebreak angainst Janowicz and to do so against Djokovic would be fatal as the world number 1 will grow in confidence. To me Murray is feeling the pressure and I do not see Djokovic letting him back after he suffers the lapses against him. It is all very well having a patient game plan against him of being patient and attacking when you get the chance but to execute that you have to keep the errors to a minimum and Murray just is not doing that right now. The result I see here is 3-0 Djokovic 3-1 Ladbrokes but for the heavy hitters 8-13 looks like a present. I do not understand people tipping Murray judged on what I have seen to both players. Murray did beat him last year at the Olympics but he is playing nowhere near that level now and in the slams Murray has won once where he played well (and almost let it slip) to beat him in New York last year. Not alone do I think Djokovic will win (obviously barring injury) but in terms of form and this match I think he is a shoe in and I urge you all to forget about patriotism and do the smart thing. Empty your pockets on Djokovic as he is at those odds a rare gift from the bookies. 10 Points win Djokovic 8/13 Paddy Power

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: Wimbledon 2013

Why are you asking whether it's because Murray is a member of the big four? It's like you want it to be the reason?, so you can be proved "genius". Yes, we're all influenced cause he's number 2 in the world and really Djokovic is head and shoulders the best player in the world. :zzz We all provided reasons other than that of, he is a member of the top 4, so why are you saying you don't understand why we are going for him? Perhaps try reading? You've basically supported the argument that Murray comes closer to Djokovic on grass, but then said however bla bla bla...... so then how can you say Djokovic should be 1.3? All these stats in grandslam head to heads aren't as significant as you think, player's develop over the years and these stats therefore count for very little. Their Australian Open semi final encounter in 2012 was incredibly close. I don't think it is clear cut whether Dokovic is the better player than Murray, on grass. Certainly on hardcourt, Novak's sheer amazing athletism and movement wins him the upper hand, but having watched the highlights of their match at the Olympics on youtube, I am not so sure Djoker has his number on a grasscourt. Murray has a better first serve also, so a lot will be to do with with howmany first serves he can make and at what times. He also needs to avoid serving outwide to Djoker's clear strength, his backhand on the second serve. If Murray had a better second serve, I'd be more confident than I am now. Just think a lot of people are underestimating the importance of the surface here, hardcourt is mainly only where both of these two have really competed against each other. I have yet to see Djoker beat a really good player on grass in fine form. With movement being less valuable, this is so even. It's fine if you think Djokovic will win but don't try and say you "don't understand" when both me and Czech gave long articulate reasons. Murray posseses just as much power at his disposal and even class in those the longer rallies IMO. Where Novak's ahead is in terms of movement. Murray's a great mover but Novak's an exceptional mover. That's why he has defensive to offensive class in the longer rallies. Novak's an exceptional mover and will need to move exceptionally tomorrow, wheather he will on this grass where it's harder to change direction, is the question for me. :) I reckon not and it's why it becomes even more of an even contest for me. Home tie for Andy and therefore he's the value at this price. Try thinking more outside of the box. ;)
I think you've misunderstood some of what I said. I wasn'tse suggesting your tips were based on Murray's 'Big Four' status, I was suggesting that the bookies' odds for Murray compared to Del Potro were based a lot on one being in the 'Big Four' and one not. Murray and Del Potro BOTH beat Djokovic at the Olympics last year. There's just no way Djokovic should be 1/7 against Del Potro and then 6/10 against Murray, the odds should be far closer to each other than that. During this tournament and several other recent tournaments the bookies have over-estimated 'Big Four' players and their odds don't reflect the fact that the 'Big Four' are no longer the dominant force they once were. So, that comment was aimed at the bookies, not at any of you on here. Moving on, grass is the one surface where the 'Big Four' are all very even - I wish more than one month of the season could be played on this surface. It all comes down to who is playing best on this surface. Last year Federer and Murray found their form but this year Murray hasn't played to that level yet whereas Djokovic's serve looks immense and he is the one in form on the grass. If Murray had Djokovic's route to the final, I don't think he'd be there. Simple as that. Murray could magically find his previous grass court form today but I'd be wanting more than 2-point-whatever odds on that happening. Djokovic rarely loses these big 5 set matches and even more rarely loses them to Murray. The mental side of things is where he has a big advantage, as much as Murray has worked on that side of his game, it just isn't and perhaps won't ever be where Djokovic is. I could write a lot more but I think it's better at this stage to just say 'the proof will be in the pudding.' I can't see past Djokovic and previous history says 3-1 or 3-2. The guy can now compete with Nadal on clay, so competing with and beating Murray on grass is not that big an ask in comparison.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: Wimbledon 2013

You think Djokovic should be 1.3 yet you think he'll win 3-2? If I thought a match was likely to go 5 sets I would much rather be laying than backing 1.3! Also the stats you quote ignore the fact that Djokovic isn't quite at the same level he was in 2011 and Murray is a different animal to 5 years ago. Basically' date=' most people perceive that Murray is finally starting to achieve the champion's mindset that he used to lack. Also they consider that his level of play right now on grass is at least on a par with Djokovic's. Djokovic is obviously being given favouritism as he has 'been there and done it' more than Murray has but I certainly couldn't make him 1.3 and I agree with others here that this is a pick'em match and Murray should be backed. Also I like RuleBritannia's analysis above, I agree, Murray's movement is better on grass.[/quote'] I think 3-2 or 3-1 are the most likely scores, yes, but I would price him around 1.3. Remember, most games which go to a deciding set/frame/leg/whatever are close to 50/50 however some players are better in that situation than others. Djokovic is one of those. John Higgins in snooker is another example I can think of off the top of my head.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: Wimbledon 2013

I think you've misunderstood some of what I said. I wasn'tse suggesting your tips were based on Murray's 'Big Four' status, I was suggesting that the bookies' odds for Murray compared to Del Potro were based a lot on one being in the 'Big Four' and one not. Murray and Del Potro BOTH beat Djokovic at the Olympics last year. There's just no way Djokovic should be 1/7 against Del Potro and then 6/10 against Murray, the odds should be far closer to each other than that. During this tournament and several other recent tournaments the bookies have over-estimated 'Big Four' players and their odds don't reflect the fact that the 'Big Four' are no longer the dominant force they once were. So, that comment was aimed at the bookies, not at any of you on here. Moving on, grass is the one surface where the 'Big Four' are all very even - I wish more than one month of the season could be played on this surface. It all comes down to who is playing best on this surface. Last year Federer and Murray found their form but this year Murray hasn't played to that level yet whereas Djokovic's serve looks immense and he is the one in form on the grass. If Murray had Djokovic's route to the final, I don't think he'd be there. Simple as that. Murray could magically find his previous grass court form today but I'd be wanting more than 2-point-whatever odds on that happening. Djokovic rarely loses these big 5 set matches and even more rarely loses them to Murray. The mental side of things is where he has a big advantage, as much as Murray has worked on that side of his game, it just isn't and perhaps won't ever be where Djokovic is. I could write a lot more but I think it's better at this stage to just say 'the proof will be in the pudding.' I can't see past Djokovic and previous history says 3-1 or 3-2. The guy can now compete with Nadal on clay, so competing with and beating Murray on grass is not that big an ask in comparison.
I disagree with all of what you've said, I don't think all of the top 4 are very even on grass. Nadal is no longer a member of the top 4 and rightfully so, he isn't fit to play on the grass and Ferrer is no exceptional mover on grass. Again, this is all your opinion, there's no way Del Potro should be 1/7 against Djokovic and then 6/10 against Murray? Del Potro is not that guy you saw beat Roger Federer in the 2009 US Open anymore and even if he was, Djokovic and Murray have risen the standard since. When the man is 6,6... known for numerous injury issues, actually carrying 2 knee injuries, both on the same knee and NEVER beaten Djokovic in a grandslam, then he probably deserves to be a really big outsider. Best of 5 sets will never suit Del Potro, especially against these athletic and brilliant movers. It's clear you are a little bit of a fan of Djokovic and can't see him losing to anybody. "It all comes down to who is playing best on this surface?" Pointing out the obvious much? You just sound like a fan more than anything. Did you see the way Verdasco played? He's using a bigger frame and he played tennis that was dating back to his australian open 2009 run. Youzhny is a very tough player on grass to beat. Djokovic had a far easier passage, it's not as simple as that, you're clearly obsessed with Djokovic and can't see past him. I just think you're so used to seeing Djokovic come through big matches and win everything that you have closed your mind off to him winning and that is shown by the superficial nature of all these arguments you have put forward. I don't think Federer came into this Wimbledon with bad form, he just happened to lose on the day to an inspired player who was playing the big points well and Federer was a bit off. Murray beat Djokovic at the Olympic games, that was on grass, it's going to be a similar sort of atmosphere to that. If you put a gun to my head and my life was depending on choosing the correct result, I would HAVE TO go with Djokovic, but to say this is anything more than 55/45 in favour of Djokovic or 60/40 at the most would be silly. Especially with the arguments you have used. Djokovic has had a harder route to the final? His only difficult player was Del Potro. Djokovic barely loses best of 5 set matches? I think you treat it more like a soap opera in all honesty rather than looking at the matchup on the surface. Djokovic may well win and he is rightly favourite but the fact you have even said he'll probably win 3-2 shows me you know it will be close, therefore you really can't say the odds are wrong and everyone is wrong. Also the bookies are not favouring Murray. What happens is they release a price on two players and then move that price accordingly based on how much money has gone on each player. It's "you" "us" the punters that decide the odds essentially, not the bookies, the bookies simply dictate the opening line.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: Wimbledon 2013 Some people just can't look past Djokovic simply because they're so used to him winning. The odds are about right. Djokovic is clearly the most mentally toughest player I think that's ever played the sport but to say Murray should be 3.5 or higher in a home tie on grass, when Novak beats him in 5 sets in slams and they are pretty much even in masters, is silly. Shanghai final, Murray had 20 match points and lost? lol It's so 50/50. Good luck though, I am going with the value, the home player with the davis cup type of support behind him and the player that doesn't lunge and do the splits on court to hit his backhand, which on this slippery grass will prove VERY TRICKY.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: Wimbledon 2013

I think 3-2 or 3-1 are the most likely scores' date=' yes, but I would price him around 1.3. Remember, most games which go to a deciding set/frame/leg/whatever are close to 50/50 however some players are better in that situation than others. Djokovic is one of those. John Higgins in snooker is another example I can think of off the top of my head.[/quote'] How can you price a player at 1.3 if you think they will lose 1 or 2 sets? You need to understand, you are basically saying that you make Djokovic 1.3 to deal with the big points well. You're saying you make him 1.3 to come through a close encounter. The bookies cannot afford to think the way you do financially, they would get burried alive. If the bookies think there is a good chance a player will lose 1 or 2 sets on the way to winning a best of 5 set encounter, they can no way price that player at 1.3, that would be the dumbest thing they could ever do. So with all this said how can you critisise the bookmakers? lol I don't get what you're saying.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: Wimbledon 2013

The guy can now compete with Nadal on clay' date= so competing with and beating Murray on grass is not that big an ask in comparison.
Oh and this is the most superficial thing I have ever read. That was clay, this is grass, Nadal's a great competitor and Djokovic would have won had he not touched the net but how does this relate to this matchup on a completely different and separate surface? Djokovic is a bad matchup for Nadal anyway, so that's a separate issue. Tennis is about matchups mate.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: Wimbledon 2013

How can you price a player at 1.3 if you think they will lose 1 or 2 sets? You need to understand, you are basically saying that you make Djokovic 1.3 to deal with the big points well. You're saying you make him 1.3 to come through a close encounter. The bookies cannot afford to think the way you do financially, they would get burried alive. If the bookies think there is a good chance a player will lose 1 or 2 sets on the way to winning a best of 5 set encounter, they can no way price that player at 1.3, that would be the dumbest thing they could ever do. So with all this said how can you critisise the bookmakers? lol I don't get what you're saying.
Unless I've done my maths wrong, backing at 1.3 means that Djokovic needs to win more than 72% of the time to make a profit. Given the bookies built-in profit margins, 1.3 would suggest Djokovic wins this around 67% of the time, ie 2 times out of 3. I think he does that comfortably. Just my opinion.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: Wimbledon 2013

You just sound like a fan more than anything. Did you see the way Verdasco played? He's using a bigger frame and he played tennis that was dating back to his australian open 2009 run. Youzhny is a very tough player on grass to beat. Djokovic had a far easier passage, it's not as simple as that, you're clearly obsessed with Djokovic and can't see past him. Also the bookies are not favouring Murray. What happens is they release a price on two players and then move that price accordingly based on how much money has gone on each player. It's "you" "us" the punters that decide the odds essentially, not the bookies, the bookies simply dictate the opening line.
You're insulting my intelligence by typing that Haas, Berdych, Del Potro (on grass) is an easier passage than Youzhny, Verdasco, Janowicz (on grass.) You're insulting your own intelligence if you actually believe that. Plenty of people will confirm which is the easier route, I'd hope it should be obvious though. The prices the bookies released were very similar to what they are now. It would be different if they had started Djokovic much shorter and he'd been backed out to 1.6. There's no need to get so worked up about someone having a different opinion. (6 replies in half an hour, all on the same theme.) Calm down, enjoy the game, as I said previously, the proof will be in the pudding.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: Wimbledon 2013

The bookies don't go on opinion' date=' but even if they did and shared the same opinion as you, they wouldn't make a player they thought would win 3-2 .. 1.3 odds.[/quote'] I think 3-2 is the most likely score but he may also win 3-1 or 3-0. The 1.3 odds would be a combination of all 3 possibilities. Equally, the bookies think the most likely score is 3-0 Djokovic, so you could say to them 'How can you have someone you think will win 3-0 at odds of 1.6 for the match?'
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: Wimbledon 2013

You're insulting my intelligence by typing that Haas, Berdych, Del Potro (on grass) is an easier passage than Youzhny, Verdasco, Janowicz (on grass.) You're insulting your own intelligence if you actually believe that. Plenty of people will confirm which is the easier route, I'd hope it should be obvious though. The prices the bookies released were very similar to what they are now. It would be different if they had started Djokovic much shorter and he'd been backed out to 1.6. There's no need to get so worked up about someone having a different opinion. (6 replies in half an hour, all on the same theme.) Calm down, enjoy the game, as I said previously, the proof will be in the pudding.
Oh please be quiet and stop acting like your own opinion is the right opinion. No one is insulting anyone's opinions. I am giving you my own opinion, stop acting like you know everything mate, because trust me, you don't. Just because Haas, Berdych and Del Potro are higher ranked doesn't make them more difficulter opponents to deal with than Youzhny, Verdasco and Jerzy in good form. Verdasco when he's on song is a dangerous top 10 player, Youzhny as well, Youzhny's just a headcase, that's why he hasn't achieved as much as he should have.... ontop of this you've got Jerzy, who's a future grandslam champion. With the exception of Berdych, you have no a leg to stand on. Whether plenty of people agree with you saying it was a harder run to the final for Djoker makes no difference either... "Just because everyone believes something, doesn't make it true". Youzhny is a very good grasscourter, you're just obsessed with these "big names". Try watching the Youzhny's performances at Halle. Go and watch Verdasco when he's playing well, search australian open vs nadal 2009... these player's may not be consistent seasoned pro's but when they turn it on, they are DANGEROUS! Verdasco was playing very well all tournament. As for Jerzy, if you think he's a gimmie, then more fool you. I am not insulting your intelligence but I am questioning your ability to think without basing everything on ranking. Rankings mean very little in tennis. It's like you only started watching tennis this season, not knowing how good Verdasco can be. You probably thought it was murray playing rubbish I imagine. lol
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

 Share


×
×
  • Create New...