Even/Odd Football betting system, Could you help please?

[downthehatch]

Hi Im a new member and have been doing some early statistical research into an idea I had for a football betting system, This originates from a roulette system that tries to use 'random' to beat random so to speak! Its quite simple you wait until the first 8 games of the season have gone by, then see whether they have been Even or Odd number of goals. so for example, Spurs last season went for their first 8, O E E E O O E E. You then start betting on the Pattern not repeating, so as the weeks progressed you would bet the opposite, the actual results for those week were: O O O O E O O O, giving L W W W W L W W. You bet on the Even/Odd goals outcome that numerous betting sites provide. If you lose, on the next bet you bet enough to regain the loss and win 1 unit. I analysed 13 teams in the Premier division and it provided approx. 170 units win over the season, however there is one big problem, although long runs of losses (where the same result is repeated) are comparatively rare, there is the occasional long run, there were 2 times when you would have had to bet 5 times to get your win and unit, 6 and 7 once and a horrific 11 once, other than that the win came within 4 games and usually within 3 bets. So the question is how to minimise the damage of the occasional long run of losses as a long run such as 6,7, 8 etc you would be betting quite a large sum to get your loss back + the 1 unit win. If there was some way to minimise the damage of the 'long run' this system could provide tremendous profit, at approx. 12 units average win per team. and you can use the odd/even bet on many leagues, domestic, European and the rest of the world. The question is, is there something in this or am I fooling myself !!! Thanks Dth

[razzpunter]

Re: Even/Odd Football betting system, Could you help please? Hi Dth, Sounds like an interesting system. Even-odds wager are certainly popular on the many popular betting sites. Keep me posted on the results of your research. Fyi There is a helpful football prediction ebook on Amazon and maybe itunes that may help you out. The title is "predicting the outcomes of english premier league matches". It's different from your research, though. But worth looking at. Best of luck, Razzpunter

[downthehatch]

Re: Even/Odd Football betting system, Could you help please? Hi RP will do, its quite tiring but I will do samples from several other leagues, if the average was typical in other leagues you are talking about 000's of units profit. But its the long line of losers that is the problem? Cheers Dth

[froment]

Re: Even/Odd Football betting system, Could you help please? I have never tried Martingale, and I hope I will not go nuts enough to try it, but I think it's sure way to poor house. You will often hear: if a system cannot work with level stakes, it will hardly work with any other staking system. Especially not with sucidal system like Martingale. So forget Martingale and try your system with some reasonable staking system. I for one prefer fixed percentage of the bank (either as a stake, either as a desired profit); so you increase your stakes after win, and decrease if you face a losing run.

If there was some way to minimise the damage of the 'long run' this system could provide tremendous profit

If there was such a way, any system would provide tremendous profit! :p

[razzpunter]

Re: Even/Odd Football betting system, Could you help please? Good post from Froment. The key would to find a workable level odds system before extrapolating the system into even-odd predictions. Perhaps if your level odds system is successfull, you can enjoy an occassional flutter on even-odd wagers while you continue to perfect it.

[downthehatch]

Re: Even/Odd Football betting system, Could you help please? well ive sampled various leagues from last seasons results, again from the soccerstats site. Very similar wins vast majority of bets within first 4 bets, but still an occasional if rare 7th and 8th bet win, shame really as it knocks up an average of 12 -15 units per team, one curious thing compared to say betting on the 50/50 chance or dozens/columns at roulette, this throws up far far fewer longish losing lines, something of the human factor perhaps? This makes me think there may be some sort of long term winning system possible with the odd/even goals result ?? Cheers Dth

[Max2112]

Re: Even/Odd Football betting system, Could you help please? You will never win in the long run if you are backing at 1.90 on a 50/50 event whatever staking plan you use :)

[tadley]

Re: Even/Odd Football betting system, Could you help please?

Its quite simple you wait until the first 8 games of the season have gone by' date=' then see whether they have been Even or Odd number of goals. so for example, Spurs last season went for their first 8, O E E E O O E E. You then start betting on the Pattern not repeating, so as the weeks progressed you would bet the opposite, [/quote']This is the problem with the system. What's gone before has absolutely no bearing on what will happen next. You can flip a coin nine times and get nine heads. But this has absolutely no bearing on what it will be on the tenth attempt. As you are aware long losing runs will eventually happen and will quickly bankrupt you.

[janusz5221]

Re: Even/Odd Football betting system, Could you help please? Hi I just red those posts cause i`m also thinking as downhehatch that must be way of making profit from odds/even goals. First of all the good thing is that odds are the same which is a good thing.What i`m going to do now i`ll do statistics everyday by odds and what was the score on particular odd .For example odd 1.60 was 20 Even 10 odds results which means that play any game with odds 1.60 for even final score will bring profit in long term.I hope you understand what my idea is .Now it`s time for statistics. I would rather keep the same stake if we lost we lost and don`t go to progression cause one day it will kill us and we don`t want to be killed.The same with NBA or MLB leagues.I`ll keep digging and will get back to you.