Primevil Posted July 4, 2013 Share Posted July 4, 2013 Re: Tour De France For sure all things being equal Cavendish wins tomorrow, but the tour doesn't always work like that. I would also say lotto and greipel made a complete mess of things today. Given you both backed him at much bigger odds today I am not sure what you have to gain. Sent from my GT-I8190N using PL Forum Its basically don't have a bet or him or back him, don't look for miracles like falling off...He is the best sprinter in the world..No one has the legs of him in a straight line,,,He is around 2/7-1/5 in my book on this pure flat stage, so he becomes value even at 8/11. IMO of course. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jenspm Posted July 4, 2013 Share Posted July 4, 2013 Re: Tour De France Just saying, there are pretty big side winds here which can (and has perviously) split the peleton. It happened to Hushovd a couple of years ago, and it can well happen again. Yes, neither Greenedge nor Quick Step will allow this and will be aware, but it's worth noting. Furthermore, as addpea notes, Lotto have a decent train and just couldn't make it work yesterday - Greipel will be desperate for a win, and I wouldn't be surprised if he took it here, his last chance in a long long while. Indeed, every sprinter will be 100% motivated for this, including the likes of Alexander Kristoff (who I grabbed yesterday tiny at 40/1 e/w). Again, Cav is the obvious pick and is rightly a huge favourite, but I just don't find much value in these odds. But that said, there are far worse places to put your money imo. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Primevil Posted July 4, 2013 Share Posted July 4, 2013 Re: Tour De France So the bookies get their wish.....He is in a crash,,gets dragged back in...still finished 4th....NO BETTER SPRINTER ON A LEVEL PLAYING FIELD...Unlucky CAV!..You gave it all,,,Without the crash...DIFFRENT GRAVY!.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted July 4, 2013 Share Posted July 4, 2013 Re: Tour De France So the bookies get their wish.....He is in a crash' date=',gets dragged back in...still finished 4th....NO BETTER SPRINTER ON A LEVEL PLAYING FIELD...Unlucky CAV!..You gave it all,,,Without the crash...DIFFRENT GRAVY!....[/quote'] Sorry I disagree with you. The crash paid little part in things as Cav looked fine and caught up the bunch fairly easily. What happened was Cav's team messed up the lead out just as Greipel's team messed up the lead out yesterday. The roles were reversed today and the result was reversed. What you have to bear in mind is Cav is the fastest but Griepel isn't actually far behind and if Lotto get things right then Cav's team have to as well to beat him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Primevil Posted July 4, 2013 Share Posted July 4, 2013 Re: Tour De France Sorry I disagree with you. The crash paid little part in things as Cav looked fine and caught up the bunch fairly easily. What happened was Cav's team messed up the lead out just as Greipel's team messed up the lead out yesterday. The roles were reversed today and the result was reversed. What you have to bear in mind is Cav is the fastest but Griepel isn't actually far behind and if Lotto get things right then Cav's team have to as well to beat him. Sorry I don't agree, those riders who dragged him back into it, would normally see him thru to the 150m mark,but they were knackered,,at 250 he was ALONE,,,he was 10 bikes off the lead stuck in traffic, he manouvered all over the place, as bikes were slowing down..I was amazed he got so close..Sorry look again at the race. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jenspm Posted July 4, 2013 Share Posted July 4, 2013 Re: Tour De France I think a lot of his team-mates were exhausted after all the positioning in the wind tbh. They were up at the front far more often than Lotto. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 4, 2013 Share Posted July 4, 2013 Re: Tour De France Sorry I don't agree' date=' those riders who dragged him back into it, would normally see him thru to the 150m mark,but they were knackered,,at 250 he was ALONE,,,he was 10 bikes off the lead stuck in traffic, he manouvered all over the place, as bikes were slowing down..I was amazed he got so close..Sorry look again at the race.[/quote'] Only Peter Velits really worked to bring Cavendish back. Steegemans did no work to bring Cav back to the peleton, he just wasn't as strong as Greipel's men in the leadout. I'll concede that Cav might have had a little bit more energy in the sprint if he didn't have to re-join, but the only real difference it might have made would be 2nd instead of 4th. Lotto and Greipel were too good today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted July 4, 2013 Share Posted July 4, 2013 Re: Tour De France With the Pyrenees waiting in the weekend the GC riders may welcome an easy day in the saddle so we may get another sprint finish maybe, minus Cavendish and Kittel which means the only one of the real sprinters that has not won a stage is that man Sagan. Tomorrows climbs should not faze Sagan so i think he is the man with Boassen Hagan. 2 Pts Win Sagan @ 3.0 0.5 ew boassen Hagan @ 21.0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted July 4, 2013 Share Posted July 4, 2013 Sorry I don't agree' date=' those riders who dragged him back into it, would normally see him thru to the 150m mark,but they were knackered,,at 250 he was ALONE,,,he was 10 bikes off the lead stuck in traffic, he manouvered all over the place, as bikes were slowing down..I was amazed he got so close..Sorry look again at the race.[/quote'] As has already been said one man helped him and given he was behind the cars as well it would have taken little out of him. His team just got it badly wrong, not for the first time this season, and by all accounts cav was having a right go at them on the team bus afterwards. As good as they were yesterday they were poor today. Sent from my GT-I8190N using PL Forum Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jenspm Posted July 4, 2013 Share Posted July 4, 2013 Re: Tour De France I'm amazed at how low Cav and Greipel's odds are on this stage. Have I read the profile wrong? This stage is the toughest yet and has Sagan written all over it for me. Layed the two of them at 3.4 and 7 respectively. I also reckon we have a decent chance at seeing some break-aways as this is the last chance for some of the supporting riders to have a go before they have to protect their captains in the mountains. I'm a bit annoyed though because I've had one name written down in bold for this stage since day 1 - Lars Petter Nordhaug. He's in absolutely fantastic shape and is full of confidence, just itching to get into a break-away. And this would be an ideal stage - the last before he has to concentrate on protecting Mollema. He tried on stage 2, but it didn't work out. After yesterday's stage, he said he was hoping he could "stretch his legs" on this one, and reiterated that he was in fantastic shape. I really think he'll be in a break this stage - if it holds remains to be seen. Sadly, though, only one bookie has priced him up - BetVictor at a measly 100/1 (they've priced Froome at the same price.. Jokers). I had him down as a definite for a big-odds punt, but those odds aren't great.. I'll have to check if there's anything work backing on Betfair in the morning :( Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Primevil Posted July 5, 2013 Share Posted July 5, 2013 Re: Tour De France As has already been said one man helped him and given he was behind the cars as well it would have taken little out of him. His team just got it badly wrong, not for the first time this season, and by all accounts cav was having a right go at them on the team bus afterwards. As good as they were yesterday they were poor today. Sent from my GT-I8190N using PL Forum The pace was so high yesterday..it was back breaking, so any fall was going to be against them,,we will have to agree to disagree......Im not having a bet in todays stage,,,not convinced that it will be a sprinters day...there may be a break that gets away with it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jenspm Posted July 5, 2013 Share Posted July 5, 2013 Re: Tour De France Right-o, I've already layed Greipel and layed Cavendish, and I've now added a small back of Lars Petter Nordhaug at 209/1 on Betfair, with a view to laying some of it off if he gets in a break that stabilises.So my book is now:Greipel (layed at 7.0): -8.5ptsCavendish (layed at 3.4): -8.5ptsNordhaug (backed at 210): +120ptsField: +5.8pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Primevil Posted July 5, 2013 Share Posted July 5, 2013 Re: Tour De France Right-o' date=' I've already layed Greipel and layed Cavendish, and I've now added a small back of Lars Petter Nordhaug at 209/1 on Betfair, with a view to laying some of it off if he gets in a break that stabilises.So my book is now:Greipel (layed at 7.0): -8.5ptsCavendish (layed at 3.4): -8.5ptsNordhaug (backed at 210): +120ptsField: +5.8pts[/quote']GL ill be watching n cheering for u!:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
disposal bag Posted July 5, 2013 Share Posted July 5, 2013 Re: Tour De France good bet guys with laying greipel and cav. i took livebetting on boasson hagen odds 8 unibet and took boason to finish top three this morning odds 12. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gurudave Posted July 5, 2013 Share Posted July 5, 2013 Re: Tour De France With the Pyrenees waiting in the weekend the GC riders may welcome an easy day in the saddle so we may get another sprint finish maybe, minus Cavendish and Kittel which means the only one of the real sprinters that has not won a stage is that man Sagan. Tomorrows climbs should not faze Sagan so i think he is the man with Boassen Hagan. 2 Pts Win Sagan @ 3.0 0.5 ew boassen Hagan @ 21.0 Great analysis was a very entertaining stage to watch! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jenspm Posted July 5, 2013 Share Posted July 5, 2013 Re: Tour De France Yeah, decent winnings in the end. I backed some Sagan small at 4.2 when I saw Cannondale chasing the break-outs early on, so a 10pt profit for me on the stage. :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted July 5, 2013 Share Posted July 5, 2013 Re: Tour De France With the Pyrenees waiting in the weekend the GC riders may welcome an easy day in the saddle so we may get another sprint finish maybe, minus Cavendish and Kittel which means the only one of the real sprinters that has not won a stage is that man Sagan. Tomorrows climbs should not faze Sagan so i think he is the man with Boassen Hagan. 2 Pts Win Sagan @ 3.0 0.5 ew boassen Hagan @ 21.0 Returns 6 Pts with a 3 Point profit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted July 5, 2013 Share Posted July 5, 2013 Re: Tour De France Well the real Tour De France starts today. This is where the goats take over. With the top 50 only separated by 1 min. it is going to be very hard for any of them getting a chance to get into a breakaway, they will be covered by all the teams especially Sky and Saxo. If the main men break away near the end I think there can only be one winner and that is Chris Froome as he is a good man in a sprint himself. Anybody with aspects of winning the tour is going to have to break Froome on the climbs. If there is going to be a breakaway I think that man Thomas Voeckler may be allowed away as he is 16 mins down on the yellow. So for tomorrow 2 Pts Win @ 3.25 C.Froome 0.5 ew @ 17.0 T.Voeckler 0.5 ew @ 51.0 T De Gendt Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 6, 2013 Share Posted July 6, 2013 Re: Tour De France Hard to see how this will be ridden today. Obviously with so many so close you can't let too many dangerous riders get away, but at the same time, it's not like Sky want the yellow jersey yet, so I don't see them riding to try and get it. Froome a likely winner if they all go up together but I don't really like taking short odds in cycling due to the uncertain nature of a stage race, so going to try a few breakaway candidates. Thomas De Gendt @ 70 Betfair - Well down on time but will likely go off looking for KOTM points and a stage win now. Will have license for a break and climbs well enough to win from most break compositions. Brice Feilu @ 240 Betfair - Is obviously chasing KoM points and has won a climbing stage before. He is well down on time, losing some 15mins yesterday. Might be bad form but I tend to think he was saving himself for a big effort today and think he's a very nice outsider to have on side. Small bet on Voeckler too, because it's obviously a stage he'll be targetting too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted July 6, 2013 Share Posted July 6, 2013 Re: Tour De France Well the real Tour De France starts today. This is where the goats take over. With the top 50 only separated by 1 min. it is going to be very hard for any of them getting a chance to get into a breakaway, they will be covered by all the teams especially Sky and Saxo. If the main men break away near the end I think there can only be one winner and that is Chris Froome as he is a good man in a sprint himself. Anybody with aspects of winning the tour is going to have to break Froome on the climbs. If there is going to be a breakaway I think that man Thomas Voeckler may be allowed away as he is 16 mins down on the yellow. So for tomorrow 2 Pts Win @ 3.25 C.Froome :clap 0.5 ew @ 17.0 T.Voeckler 0.5 ew @ 51.0 T De Gendt Returns 6.50 for a daily profit of 2.5 Pts What a ride. Is the tour de France over after Week 1? It is going to take something very special to beat Froome. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted July 6, 2013 Share Posted July 6, 2013 Re: Tour De France Pretty hard to see Froome getting beat from here. He looks so far in front of everyone else and the 2nd strongest rider looks to be Porte. I get the feeling it could be even easier than Wiggo's win last year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnakeBg Posted July 6, 2013 Share Posted July 6, 2013 Re: Tour De France The tour is over. Can''t see anyone reach the level of Froome and his teammates. Absolutely amazing ride. That guy can win easily in the next 4-5 years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 7, 2013 Share Posted July 7, 2013 Re: Tour De France Only two things can stop Froome IMO. A Crash or a positive test. Other than that Yellow is surely his. Onto today and it is a classic breakaway stage. With 4 Cat 1's the winner will have to have a decent climbing pedigree, which for me rules out a few breakaway candidates like Roy and Voigt. I've plumped for: Damiano Cunego @ 48 Betfair Andrey Amador @ 65 Betfair Thomas De Gent @ 26 Betfair Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jenspm Posted July 7, 2013 Share Posted July 7, 2013 Re: Tour De France I like those picks, Crouch. I've taken some Pierre Rolland KOTM at 2.85 with Coral to add to my Mikel Nieve (taken at 24/1 pre-tour). It's a decent price given his positioning and that it's his main goal this tour - there are some tough mountains yet to climb, but he should have the climbing pedigree to do it. Also, he'll be allowed to break away - don't think Sky are interested in him, nor will they end up with the polka dots, imo. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted July 7, 2013 Share Posted July 7, 2013 Re: Tour De France Don't know what to make of this stage after yesterday, will Sky cover all breakaways or will they just drive everybody into submission. I think to have any chance the leading contenders need to try and get in a break as early as the first climb. So, after loooking at the prices I definitely cannot turn down the 16\1 on Froome. This is a stage that will suit Valverde under normal circumstances, that is without Sky. For today C.Froome 0.5 ew @ 17.0 G.Izagirre 0.5ew @ 34.0 A. Valverde 1 ew @ 11.0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jenspm Posted July 7, 2013 Share Posted July 7, 2013 Re: Tour De France Rolland did me proud today - best price 1.61 (Bet365) for KOTM now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted July 7, 2013 Share Posted July 7, 2013 Re: Tour De France Bit disappointed Rolland has gone for the KOTM over a high GC place given I backed him for a top 10. Odd from Moviestar I thought as they were in a great position and yet barely tested Froome on the final climb. They may well have missed a trick there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 Re: Tour De France Back to the boring sprint races today and it is very hard to get away from the big boys in a stage that has one Cat 4 climb. There is not one corner in the last 5km of the day so it maybe a day for the power sprinters. Kittel and Greipel have the better lead outs so they will be my picks for the day. 2 Pt Win Greipel @ 3.75 1 Pt ew Kittel @ 9.0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Primevil Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 Re: Tour De France Todays stage 10 is a very very tricky run in, and I suggest a no bet, There is a big chance of a crash up front ...plus a climb sprint finish, today is a day for watching..Not betting IMO...Its fraught with dangers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jenspm Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 Re: Tour De France I agree with Primevil here, I don't think this is as obvious a bunch-up sprint as people might think. It's hilly and can be extremely windy. A break-away could well come in if they get a decent lead. Happened last time they were here.It's also the only stage in Bretagne, where Sojasun have their base, and I'd be surprised if they didn't set out to entertain here. Oh that basis, I've picked one rider for a potential break-away win: Julien Simon. He's on Sojasun and actually has a decent sprint - could well be a part of a break-away.Sorry I've posted this late - grabbed him at 500 at WillHill, where he's now 210, but he's still available at 500 at YouWin.Julien Simon @ 500 - WilliamHill, YouWin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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