Crouch Potato Posted June 29, 2013 Share Posted June 29, 2013 Re: Tour De France Have taken an early speculative wager on Matthew Goss to win tomorrow (67 - Bet 365) By no means is a sprint finish guaranteed but I can't possibly have Sagan at sub 3's. Either it's a sprint and there will be other sprinters there or the sprinters won't be there, in which case there will be a lot of late attacks. If I can find a breakaway contender I like I might add them to the list but if a portion of the sprinters do make it over the climbs then I think Goss is more likely to than the likes of Cav, Greipel and Cavendish. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted June 29, 2013 Share Posted June 29, 2013 Re: Tour De France Impossible to back Sagan anyway given we don't know what shape he is in yet. It won't be a sprint finish tomorrow, but that doesn't mean Sagan won't win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnakeBg Posted June 29, 2013 Share Posted June 29, 2013 Re: Tour De France Why betting on sprinter tomorrow ? As i look the stage who ever climb first to the 2-nd category could win the stage as after the drop there are almost 30 kilometres flat until the end. So if there is an escape group i could say some of them could win. We will see in what shape are the main riders , but given the stage i will probably won't bet. Just for fun i could bet Voeckler - 41 odds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted June 29, 2013 Share Posted June 29, 2013 Re: Tour De France Why betting on sprinter tomorrow ? As i look the stage who ever climb first to the 2-nd category could win the stage as after the drop there are almost 30 kilometres flat until the end. So if there is an escape group i could say some of them could win. We will see in what shape are the main riders ' date=' but given the stage i will probably won't bet. Just for fun i could bet Voeckler - 41 odds.[/quote'] Sagan isn't a normal sprinter though and Goss falls into that category as well. If Sagan is fit he is the most likely winner, but then he is priced up like that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted June 29, 2013 Share Posted June 29, 2013 Re: Tour De France Not really knowing what condition Sagan is in I think I will go with Degenkolb ew @ 11.0 Cannondale and Orica will try and burn Cavendish on the 2nd Cat 3 climb so expect a fast pace tomorrow as it is only 156km. My three for tomorrow Degenkolb 1 Pt ew @ 11.0 Matt Goss 0.5 ew @ 51.0 Artur Vichot 0.5 ew @ 126.0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jenspm Posted June 29, 2013 Share Posted June 29, 2013 Re: Tour De France Have taken an early speculative wager on Matthew Goss to win tomorrow (67 - Bet 365) By no means is a sprint finish guaranteed but I can't possibly have Sagan at sub 3's. Either it's a sprint and there will be other sprinters there or the sprinters won't be there, in which case there will be a lot of late attacks. If I can find a breakaway contender I like I might add them to the list but if a portion of the sprinters do make it over the climbs then I think Goss is more likely to than the likes of Cav, Greipel and Cavendish. That's a stunning price there, well spotted. I've thrown some money at Francesco Gavazzi e/w at 66/1 with PaddyPower. He's another one of these 'hill sprinters' so the profile of the stage should suit him. If Astana and others push hard enough to drop Cavendish and Greipel, Gavazzi should have a decent chance and is expected to go for it either way. Was held up in the crash on the first stage. edit- added Boasson Hagen as well, at 16/1 with Coral - finish should suit him, and again, he's one of those sprinters who climbs well. Gone with a win-only as I'm not sure 4/1 on him to place is worth any money. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted June 30, 2013 Share Posted June 30, 2013 Re: Tour De France Tony Martin was concussed and bruised a lung in his crash, but amazingly he has started today's stage. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
disposal bag Posted June 30, 2013 Share Posted June 30, 2013 Re: Tour De France At unibet live betting you can get any other rider to win than Sagan odds 5 looks like pure gold to me stake 4/10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted June 30, 2013 Share Posted June 30, 2013 Right mess that was for betting in running given they named the wrong rider. Frustrating Sagan couldn't get there as he could have done with winning today for the green. At least he proved he is fine after the crash. Sent from my GT-I8190N using PL Forum Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted June 30, 2013 Share Posted June 30, 2013 Re: Tour De France Not really knowing what condition Sagan is in I think I will go with Degenkolb ew @ 11.0 Cannondale and Orica will try and burn Cavendish on the 2nd Cat 3 climb so expect a fast pace tomorrow as it is only 156km. My three for tomorrow Degenkolb 1 Pt ew @ 11.0 Matt Goss 0.5 ew @ 51.0 Artur Vichot 0.5 ew @ 126.0 Closest I got there was Vichot who finished 19th Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted June 30, 2013 Share Posted June 30, 2013 Re: Tour De France For tomorrow I think Sagan will definitely be on the podium but the 2.75 - is it value, yes ? Similar stage as today two Cat 3 with the Cat 2 climb the last climb so Cavendish will not be at the finish for the sprint. My Three: Sagan 2Pts Win @ 2.75 Simon Gerrans 0.5 ew @ 21.0 Michal Kwiatowski 0.5 ew @ 21.0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted July 1, 2013 Share Posted July 1, 2013 Re: Tour De France [h=5]Sagan has built up a decent lead in the Points classification which means we can do a bit of trading. First of all Cavendish is available to back at 13/2 which is too big as he can gain points on Sagan on the flatter stages to come. Also Stage 1 winner Kittel is avaiable at 40 on Betfair which is a crazy price given he has the advantage of gaining big points on stage 1 when the others gained nothing. Sagan should still be favourite, but I thought he would win stages 2 and 3 so has lost a few points there and the market has over reacted to his lead. This should put us in a good position on this market. Also tomorrow's stage is the team time trial and I like Garmain at 9/4 with Coral. They won this stage the last time it was held in 2011 and this has been their big pre Tour target. They also have the added bonus of being able to get David Millar the yellow jersey should they win the stage tomorrow and that will be a huge incentive. Their main rivals Sky and Omega Pharma-Quick Step both have injury problems in their teams. Geriant Thomas is suffering from a fractured pelvis for Sky, whilst Tony Martin suffered a bruised lung in his fall and that is a huge loss for the latter given he is the best time-trialist in the Tour. Garmain to win Stage 4 1.5pts[/h] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted July 1, 2013 Share Posted July 1, 2013 Re: Tour De France Have to agree with you about Garmin. 8 of their team are good time - trialists with the exception of Dan Martin. Seen as Sky and OP-Q Step are suffering from injuries could get a few surprises. My three for tomorrow Garmin 1 Pt Win @ 3.25 Coral Orica Greenedge 0.5 ew @ 21.0 WHill Movistar 0.5 ew @ 8.0 WHill Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted July 1, 2013 Share Posted July 1, 2013 Re: Tour De France For tomorrow I think Sagan will definitely be on the podium but the 2.75 - is it value, yes ? Similar stage as today two Cat 3 with the Cat 2 climb the last climb so Cavendish will not be at the finish for the sprint. My Three: Sagan 2Pts Win @ 2.75 2nd Simon Gerrans 0.5 ew @ 21.0 1st Michal Kwiatowski 0.5 ew @ 21.0 4th Returns 13 Pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Primevil Posted July 1, 2013 Share Posted July 1, 2013 Re: Tour De France Sagan has built up a decent lead in the Points classification which means we can do a bit of trading. First of all Cavendish is available to back at 13/2 which is too big as he can gain points on Sagan on the flatter stages to come. Also Stage 1 winner Kittel is avaiable at 40 on Betfair which is a crazy price given he has the advantage of gaining big points on stage 1 when the others gained nothing. Sagan should still be favourite, but I thought he would win stages 2 and 3 so has lost a few points there and the market has over reacted to his lead. This should put us in a good position on this market. Also tomorrow's stage is the team time trial and I like Garmain at 9/4 with Coral. They won this stage the last time it was held in 2011 and this has been their big pre Tour target. They also have the added bonus of being able to get David Millar the yellow jersey should they win the stage tomorrow and that will be a huge incentive. Their main rivals Sky and Omega Pharma-Quick Step both have injury problems in their teams. Geriant Thomas is suffering from a fractured pelvis for Sky, whilst Tony Martin suffered a bruised lung in his fall and that is a huge loss for the latter given he is the best time-trialist in the Tour. Garmain to win Stage 4 1.5pts Moviestar at 8/1 ew for the stage is worth a look. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jenspm Posted July 2, 2013 Share Posted July 2, 2013 Re: Tour De France I think this tempo is all about looking at the big odds. As you say, Thomas is out with injury, as is Tony Martin. But it's also a short TT, which should, imo, make it slightly more unpredictable. I've gone relatively heavily (2pts) with BMC at 16/1 e/w (1/4 odds for 3 places) with Ladbrokes, which looks cracking to me. They finished 2nd in the team TT in 2011, and have managed to keep most of their team from that. The Norwegian media has been up in arms about them dropping Hushovd, arguing that they'd have a huge chance on this stage if he was still there, and indeed he was one of their best in 2011. Still, from 2011 they've replaced Hushovd, Santaromita and Hincapie with Schär, Van Garderen and Gilbert, which ain't bad. Gilbert was Belgian TT Champion in 2011. In 2010 Van Garderen finished second in a strong field in the prologue of the Criterium de Dauphine, behind Contador, but ahead of the likes of G. Thomas, Menchov, Brajvokic and Boasson Hagen. He finished fourth in a TT later in the same tour. He came second in the TT in Tour de Suisse in 2011 behind Fabian Cancellara, and in the 2012 Tour de France he finished fourth in the prologue, and fourth in the 9th stage TT. That year he also won Tour of California, winning the TT stage in the process. Schär I have to admit to knowing little about, but he's a Swiss one-time junior and two-time Under-23 TT champion, Swiss road champion of this year and won the TTT in Tour of Qatar this year as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jenspm Posted July 2, 2013 Share Posted July 2, 2013 Re: Tour De France Well that was a disappointment. Not a great ride at all by BMC. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted July 2, 2013 Share Posted July 2, 2013 Re: Tour De France Garmin really disappointing as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted July 2, 2013 Share Posted July 2, 2013 Re: Tour De France Have to agree with you about Garmin. 8 of their team are good time - trialists with the exception of Dan Martin. Seen as Sky and OP-Q Step are suffering from injuries could get a few surprises. My three for tomorrow Garmin 1 Pt Win @ 3.25 Coral 6th Orica Greenedge 0.5 ew @ 21.0 WHill 1st Movistar 0.5 ew @ 8.0 WHill 7th Returns 13 Pts For tomorrow Stage 5 This should be a stage for the sprinters as the hardest climb (Cat 3) comes after only 22km. It is here that any of the teams without a sprinter will try to get away. Greipel and his Lotto team did well in the TT today so I am going to take a chance that he can stay with the peloton and overcome Cavendish and Sagan in a sprint. Greipel needs points for the Green Jersey. As an outsider El Fares (Sojasun) may try and get into an early breakaway as this is his home area and would love to win in front of his family. Greipel 1 Pt Win @ 4.0 El Fares 0.5 ew @ 151 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jenspm Posted July 2, 2013 Share Posted July 2, 2013 Re: Tour De France Yepp, I agree - mass sprint time. Coral are really keen on laying Cav in this one, and have him priced at 5/1 - which I am more than happy to take. I think his price has been inflated because the mountain is, as you say, early on and is, imo, slightly overrated. Furthermore, there are the reports of his illness, but he did well in today's TTT, which is good. Also, it's Mark Cavendish. I think Peter Sagan is overrated in this race (again because of the overrated mountain), and should be opposed. Kittel looks big at 16/1 (again with Coral), and as they're paying out four places in this, he has to be backed in my opinion. That's 4/1 for him to, for example, finish fourth behind Cav, Greipel and Sagan. 3.5pts Mark Cavendish win @ 5/1 - Coral 1pt Marcel Kittel e/w (1/4 odds 4 places) @ 16/1 - Coral Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted July 3, 2013 Share Posted July 3, 2013 Re: Tour De France I can't make my mind up about Cav. If he is still a little under the weather then I am not sure he will win, but at the same time he is a big price. With him I think the hill is a concern because if he is still under the weather I think he will struggle to get over it in the bunch. Good spot with the Coral e/w terms and agree Kittel is the bet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
disposal bag Posted July 3, 2013 Share Posted July 3, 2013 Re: Tour De France Argos told the dutch press they Will ride for degenkolb today! Kittel feels like this stage is to hard for him. Cav is really dissapointing, and the final climb is harder then expected. now the last climb is rated like a 4 category Climb, but if i am correct a few years ago the climb was rated a 3 category. but the last km is easy and on a big boulevard so good for the peloton. no bets today because not sure if we see a break away or small group sprint or a big group sprint then i expect greipel to win Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Primevil Posted July 3, 2013 Share Posted July 3, 2013 Re: Tour De France Yepp, I agree - mass sprint time. Coral are really keen on laying Cav in this one, and have him priced at 5/1 - which I am more than happy to take. I think his price has been inflated because the mountain is, as you say, early on and is, imo, slightly overrated. Furthermore, there are the reports of his illness, but he did well in today's TTT, which is good. Also, it's Mark Cavendish. I think Peter Sagan is overrated in this race (again because of the overrated mountain), and should be opposed. Kittel looks big at 16/1 (again with Coral), and as they're paying out four places in this, he has to be backed in my opinion. That's 4/1 for him to, for example, finish fourth behind Cav, Greipel and Sagan. 3.5pts Mark Cavendish win @ 5/1 - Coral 1pt Marcel Kittel e/w (1/4 odds 4 places) @ 16/1 - Coral BANG IN THERE CAVENDISH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!Corals...Pay up LADS! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Primevil Posted July 3, 2013 Share Posted July 3, 2013 Re: Tour De France I bet Corals have CAV in as FAV for STAGE 6 and STAGE 7.....On a Roll. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted July 3, 2013 Share Posted July 3, 2013 Re: Tour De France Obviously Cav will be fav for the next two days. He wasn't today because he has been ill so they thought it was worth taking him on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Primevil Posted July 3, 2013 Share Posted July 3, 2013 Re: Tour De France He is a fresh as a daisy.......4/5 tomorrow, Just looks different gravy. Time to lump on,,He will be protected all the way in, no breakaways....Weighed in for me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted July 3, 2013 Share Posted July 3, 2013 As we saw on Saturday things aren't always that straight forward when it comes to cycling. Sent from my GT-I8190N using PL Forum Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Primevil Posted July 3, 2013 Share Posted July 3, 2013 Re: Tour De France he is 4/5=8/11 for stage 6...For me if he don't crash its already his...So your betting he don't crash...As I said weighed in if he don't..Big Bet for me he wins tomorrow.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted July 3, 2013 Share Posted July 3, 2013 Re: Tour De France He is a fresh as a daisy.......4/5 tomorrow' date= Just looks different gravy. Time to lump on,,He will be protected all the way in, no breakaways....Weighed in for me. bang on there Primevil This is a stage for the pure sprinters and we are in for a fight between the best sprinters in the world, and Cavendish in my eyes is the best sprinter in the world. Sagan is very consistent so he will be my ew bet. 5 Pt Win Cavendish @ 1.73 PP 1 Pt ew Sagan @ 13.0 PP Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted July 3, 2013 Share Posted July 3, 2013 For sure all things being equal Cavendish wins tomorrow, but the tour doesn't always work like that. I would also say lotto and greipel made a complete mess of things today. Given you both backed him at much bigger odds today I am not sure what you have to gain. Sent from my GT-I8190N using PL Forum Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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