Tour De France

[ThemanwiththeSTATS]

Contadors price looks far to big at around $3.50. Everybody is taking for granted the fact that Froome will be ahead of Wiggins after the first week and wiggins will help him for the rest of the tour. Sources around cycling are saying that wiggins isn't interested in playing second fiddle to Froome but I dare say if Froome gets on top early he has no choice. Contador is a freak and at the very least should be equal fav imo. What's everyone's picks ? Top 10s and so on.

[Primevil]

Re: Tour De France

Contadors price looks far to big at around $3.50. Everybody is taking for granted the fact that Froome will be ahead of Wiggins after the first week and wiggins will help him for the rest of the tour. Sources around cycling are saying that wiggins isn't interested in playing second fiddle to Froome but I dare say if Froome gets on top early he has no choice. Contador is a freak and at the very least should be equal fav imo. What's everyone's picks ? Top 10s and so on.

There is a rumor, that wiggins won't even show up, as there is friction in the camp. That is the last thing sky want, if he ain't on board with playing second fiddle, I expect him to no show, and be number 1 next year for someone else.

[mrnice]

Re: Tour De France I agree with the first poster that Contador's odds look generous. Go to Betfair, they're even higher. Sky have a very firm management style. They have reiterated that Froome is the team leader. Wiggins is very much part of Sky and I cannot believe he would rebel against team orders. However if Froome shows significant weakness, has a crash, gets sick, loses a lot of time, that situation may change and the team orders may allow Wiggins a freer role to go for GC. It is key to remember this Tour has not much in the way of ITT kms. This is where traditionally Wiggins makes huge chunks of time. Without these, and even if Wiggins did rebel, which I don't think he would, I don't think he could win the overall GC. So, to summarise, for GC, think Froome, not Wiggins. Wiggins not showing up, this is possible if he has other goals, not sure what. World Time Trial championship, maybe. Don't forget he makes huge bucks just by showing up at the Tour and helping Froome. More likely I see him dropping out on some weak excuse around stage 19. That way, he gets paid in full, loads of publicity for his sponsors, done his job of turning up as last year's yellow jersey but no need to congratulate Froome when he wins or if he wins.

[ThemanwiththeSTATS]

Contador looks a shadow of his 2010 self in the criterium , he's just been crushed against the clock by richie Porte. I wouldn't be backing contador now unless something drastically changes. Froome looks very very hard to beat but I like the the look of Tj Van Garderen. Anyone else think that TVG is capable this year or maybe further down the track ?

[gersfandownunder]

Re: Tour De France thats a great price about Contador. i will be laying that price (if its true) all day. Contador has just completed the Dauphine and declared himself satisfied with his current condition, this after being outclassed by Froome on the last stage. i am sure that Contador will "do whatever it takes" to be "100%" for the start of the Tour. Froome looked serene throughout the Dauphine.

[SnakeBg]

Re: Tour De France Contador in my opinion is not in his best form. I watched the Giro and there were serveral mountain stages in witch his team didn't help him enough. On the other had in Sky there are good riders and if Froome cycle like last year noone will be able to stop him.

[Bardach]

Re: Tour De France You have watched the Giro and saw Contador? Maybe it was 2011? If you are talking about Criterium Dauphine, team was helping Rogers not Contador However, Froome is too short for me here. Of course he won everything this year, except Tirreno-Adriatico, but I believe in Contador's words about allergy and his preparations. Saxo Tinkoff is really strong this year, with Kreuziger, Rogers, Paulinho, Roche and Hernandez. Maybe it's not Sky train, but with Movistar they are second best team. The strongest Contador ever had.

[Merc]

Re: Tour De France

You have watched the Giro and saw Contador? Maybe it was 2011? If you are talking about Criterium Dauphine, team was helping Rogers not Contador However, Froome is too short for me here. Of course he won everything this year, except Tirreno-Adriatico, but I believe in Contador's words about allergy and his preparations. Saxo Tinkoff is really strong this year, with Kreuziger, Rogers, Paulinho, Roche and Hernandez. Maybe it's not Sky train, but with Movistar they are second best team. The strongest Contador ever had.

Saxo is indeed really strong this year. However, it is unclear which riders will be there to help Contador on the real mountains. Paulinho never has been there, Roche is not able to control so you hope for Kreuziger, Rogers and Hernandez. Against Porte, Lopez and EBH/Kiryienka. I would like to see Contador in yellow and against this price, it looks like a value bet. How about Cavendish to win the green jersey? Around 2.20 and Sagan is favorite at EVS. There are a lot of sprints this year and I can see Cav winning at least 3 stages. Sagan will struggle to win points against Kittel, Greipel, Kristoff and there are not much punch stages. Maybe Sagan will stop fighting for green when he realises he cannot beat Cav?

[Jenspm]

Re: Tour De France 2.5pts Bauke Mollema: Over 0.5 stage wins @ 5/1 - Bwin I think there's decent value in this bet - he's in great form after coming second overall and winning a stage in the Tour de Suisse and will therefore captain the Belkin team. It is worth noting that he isn't known for winning stages, and his overall goal is not stage wins, but rather finishing in the top 10. Even so - if the Tour de Suisse is anything to go by (which it tends to be), his form is good and 5/1 for a stage win ain't bad.

[Bardach]

Re: Tour De France

Saxo is indeed really strong this year. However, it is unclear which riders will be there to help Contador on the real mountains. Paulinho never has been there, Roche is not able to control so you hope for Kreuziger, Rogers and Hernandez. Against Porte, Lopez and EBH/Kiryienka. I would like to see Contador in yellow and against this price, it looks like a value bet. How about Cavendish to win the green jersey? Around 2.20 and Sagan is favorite at EVS. There are a lot of sprints this year and I can see Cav winning at least 3 stages. Sagan will struggle to win points against Kittel, Greipel, Kristoff and there are not much punch stages. Maybe Sagan will stop fighting for green when he realises he cannot beat Cav?

Saxo-Tinkoff squad is already known: http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/contador-well-supported-on-saxo-tinkoff-tour-de-france-squad About Green jersey: hard to say, I skip this bet right now. I'll try to analyze route. However Cav to win first stage looks nice with @ 5/6 - Paddy Power. It's flat stage even last km is flat, so Cav should win here easily.

[Darran]

Re: Tour De France Here are my thoughts on the Tour Yellow Jersey [h=5]At 8/11 Froome is even shorter than Wiggins was to win it last year and it is easy to see why he is so short in the betting. He has been in superb form all season winning the Tour Of Oman, the Criterium International, the Tour of Romandy and most importantly the Criterium du Dauphine. The latter is always the key warm up race before the Tour and he was really impressive. His main rival in the Tour is former winner Alberto Contador and Froome proved how far clear he was during the race. Granted Contador will probably be in better shape come Saturday, but as Team Sky proved last year their riders will be in peak shape come July and I don’t see how Contador can improve past Froome in such a short space of time. Contador missed last year’s Tour as he was serving a drugs ban but he came back to win the Vuelta A Espana with Froome back in fourth. People may look at that and think that Contador can beat Froome again in a Grand Tour, but Froome was clearly not in peak shape having finished second in the Tour last year and it was clear from some way out that it was a race too far for him. Froome proved in the Dauphine that he is equal if not better to Contador in the mountains and we already know he is better than him in time-trails. Put simply if Froome gets the same sort of run Wiggins got last year then he will win his first Yellow Jersey. Obviously it is a three week bike race and crashes or bike problems can happen and that does put me off slightly from lumping on at 8/11, but if you could guarantee that he would have a safe Tour he is a great bet at those odds. Green Jersey The bookies are finding it hard to split the last two winners of this competition Mark Cavendish and Peter Sagan and one of them should win the Points competition come Paris. As we saw last year the advantage Sagan has over Cavendish is that he can win the stages that feature medium size climbs that Cav can’t get over. Sagan isn’t as quick as Cav or the other leading sprinter Andre Griepel on a flat stage finish, but he is quick enough to get in the top 5 and pick up more points. Now it should be a bit closer than it was last season as Cav will have a team dedicated to him and there are more flat stages than last year, but I still think Sagan has the edge due to the fact he will be able to pick up points on stages Cav won’t. Sagan is available at even money, but I think the best bet is with Paddy Power who are offering special doubles on who wins the Yellow and Green Jersey’s. For some reason the Froome/Cav double is at 9/4, but the Froome/Sagan double is available at 11/4 even though Sagan is shorter than Cav in the Points Classification market. That looks a really good price to me as all things being equal I both things will happen. I am a huge Cav fan and would love him to win Green again, but you have to let your head rule your heart when it comes to punting. The bet to have on Cav though is for him to win over 4.5 stages which is even money with William Hill and Paddy Power. He only three stages last year and four stages the year before, but this year sees more flat sprint finishes than either of those two Tours. I think there are at least seven possible Cav stages and there may even be one or two more. For him to win the Green Jersey I think he will need to win at least five stages and even that might not be enough. This for me acts like a saver on the other bet, but gives us the chance of winning twice which I think is the most likely outcome. King of the Mountains This has become a right lottery in recent years and has become a competition to generally leave alone for punting purposes. I am going to have a small interest this year though as I want to back young Colombian Nairo Quintana. Colombians have had a great tradition over the years when it comes to climbing mountains and Quintana looks set to continue that. He has been put in quite short in the General Classification markets so will take the chance that he will target this Jersey over finishing as high as possible in the General Classification and Young Jersey competition. Indeed even if he did win the latter it still might mean he finishes in the top 3 in the King of the Mountains and at 12/1 with Bet 365 it is worth a small bet. Top 10 finish bets Pierre Rolland finished eight last year and has won a stage at the last two Tour’s. The team time trial and the two individual time trial’s will stop him from getting on the podium, but he is at his best in the Alps and given the really tough stages happen in the Alps this year, I think he will finish in the top 10 again. He is a best price of 11/8 with Bet 365 to do so. The other two bets I am recommending in this market are slightly more risky. Irishman Dan Martin rode the Tour for the first time last year and finished 35th. He should be capable of building on that this time around especially as he has won the Tour of Catalonia (beating Chris Froome) and Liege-Bastogne-Liege this season. That should give him plenty of confidence and is proof that a top 10 finish is not beyond him. He is a 7/2 shot with Bet 365. Thomas De Gendt is 7/1 with BetVictor to finish in the top 10 and that looks a solid price. He was third in last year’s Giro D’Italia where he came good in the final week. He seems to do better as a Grand Tour goes on as he proved in the Tour in 2011 and given the Tour is at its hardest in the final week I think he can sneak a Top 10 finish. He is a good time trailer and can climb well so looks a spot of value. Other markets The betting without Froome market interests me. Contador is obviously odds on to win this, but I am not sure he is in the best of form this season and although he is deserves his place at the head of the market I think there is some value in backing a couple of others e/w against him. Last year we saw a 1-2 for Sky and it would not be the biggest surprise should it happen again. Richie Porte could be the man to follow Froome home. He is a big mate of Froome’s and will be the man to guide him through the Tour which could well be enough to see him get second place as it was with Froome who helped Wiggins last year. I certainly think he has a very good chance of finishing in the first four which will see us collect on the 9/1 odds Paddy Power are offering. Also should something happen to Froome then Porte will become Team Sky’s leader. Skybet are offering the Froome/Porte forecast at 11/1 and that is also worth a small bet. Jurgen Van Den Broeck has finished fourth in the last two Tours that he has finished (he crashed out in 2011) and although you won’t really notice him, it will be no surprise if he repeats the feat again. He is a triple figure price to win the Tour, but the bookies have noted his consistency and he is a short price for a top six finish. He is however 50/1 in the betting without Froome market with Paddy Power. Now I don’t expect to be collecting on the win part of that bet but given it is 12/1 that he finishes in the frame in this market then he has to be backed as finishing fourth again should see us collecting. Bets Froome/Sagan double 3pts Cavendish to win over 4.5 stages 2.5pts Nairo Quintana to win King of the Mountains 0.5pts e/w Pierre Rolland to finish top 10 2pts Dan Martin to finish top 10 1pt Thomas De Gendt to finish top 10 1pt Richie Porte in the betting without Froome market 1.5pts e/w Jurgen Van Den Broeck in the betting without Froome market 1pt e/w Froome to beat Porte forecast 0.5pts[/h]

[disposal bag]

Re: Tour De France Great analysis addpea. Be aware that Rolland had some problems with his cortisol. agree with the quintana bet for the king of the mountains. Also Rodriguez can pick up some points at unibet you get odds 19. With vd broeck we dont't know if he is 100 procent fit, he was struggling with his condition. maybe 0.5 points to win the king of the mountains if he can reach his good form later in the week. At unibet odds 65! Tomorrow of course first chance van Cav, griepel, kittel,bouhnani. But with sprinting there is some luck involved as well and with kristoff in good form i will take 1 point that he will finish in top three odds 6 at unibet

[SnakeBg]

Re: Tour De France Sagan dominated last year in such stages where there was a slight slope at the finish. Now i don't really now what is his current form , but given the fact that last year Sky made such output for Cavendish and Sagan still dominated him i don't know what to expect tomorrow. Sagan in top 3 with very nice odds - 2.50.

[Darran]

Sagan dominated last year in such stages where there was a slight slope at the finish. Now i don't really now what is his current form , but given the fact that last year Sky made such output for Cavendish and Sagan still dominated him i don't know what to expect tomorrow. Sagan in top 3 with very nice odds - 2.50.

Not saying that won't happen but your reasoning makes no sense. Sagan didn't dominate Cavendish in the sprints they both contested it was the other way round. Sent from my GT-I8190N using PL Forum

[Merc]

Re: Tour De France We saw last year that the speed of Sagan is not really special compared to Cav/Greipel/Kittel. It is hard to see Sagan in top 3 tomorrow as all sprinters will be there and I think Goss, Bouhanni and Bennati should be able to beat Sagan.

[Darran]

Re: Tour De France It was odd because Goss seemed to win most of the intermediate sprints, but got nowhere near winning a stage. Will be interesting to see what he targets this year.

[antogz]

Re: Tour De France This is my preview of the Tour. I never done one here before because there as'n't being much interest. Follow me and you will win money. Well the 100th edition is nearly upon us, we have no defending champion this year, he will be off sulking somewhere in his homeland of Belgium. This years route is an interesting one, not all that flat, yet no real massive mountains. No long TT's like last year either. I taught we might have a few epic stages like the Giro since it is the centenary year. Stage 18 is the closest to that with the legendary Alp d'Huez being climbed twice.

Contenders

Again this year looks like a 2 horse race Froome v's Contador and unfortunately I can't see it being any other way. I can't make a case for anyone disrupting the party. Froome is the best priced 4/5, while Contador is 11/4. Froome won their dual comfortably in the Dauphine, but I just wonder was Contador just testing him out. What we do know Contador will attack, attack, attack this year, he know’s no other way and that will make it interesting. They are both similar riders when it comes to the mountains, both explosive and with a good kick at the finish. The TT should suit both of them as well. Froome is the type of rider who doesn’t need to peak, but Contador is that type of rider, everything is geared towards the Tour. That’s why we haven’t seen the best of Contador yet and I think the layers have over-reacted to this. I’d price it up Froome 6/4 and Contador 2/1, Froome favourite because of him dominating Contador in the Dauphine. This is a different story though, both have very strong teams behind, I’d even say Saxo have the stronger team with Rodgers and Kreugizer finishing 3rd and 6th overall in the prep races. Sky won’t dominate on the front of the peleton this year, a tactic they have used to great effect in the past. I just think at the prices Contador is better value but I wouldn’t be going too mad on it. Since it is a 2 horse race only one other can get on the podium, so it’s hard to find value. Saying that Rodriguez at 20/1 with >PP is cracking value. I’d have him at 10/1. His TT has really improved which was his Achilles heel. He is a superb climber and the short puncher climbs this year will suit him. There isn’t many KM’s of TT this year which is a bonus and one of the TT is a rolling stage which will suit him. I’ll definitely have a crack at him at 20/1. After that it’s anyone’s guess, but I will have a go at Thibaut Pinot at 100/1. He is a young rider who is starting to show great form, who can climb with the best of team as well and I expect him to be in the top 10 at the very least.

Points classification

Again this is a two horse race between Cavendish and Sagan, I went with Sagan last year and he won and I see reason not to back him again. Simply there more stages in this Tour that suits Sagan more than Cavendish. I can see Sagan getting more points in the intermediate sprints than Cavendish. Cavendish will win at least 3 of the flat stages but Sagan will pick points up here as well, where as Sagan should win 3 stages as well, Cavendish won’t be there to pick up points as it will be too difficult for him. I also think Griepel or Kittel could nick a stage as well in front of Cavendish. Again I’m not going to go huge but I do think Sagan will win. A hint Cavendish will more than likely win the first stage, so wait till after that to back Sagan, you will probably get 6/4.

Young rider white jersey

The white jersey is going to be an intriguing battle this year with Van Garderen, Pinot, Quintana and Talansky vying for it. I honestly don’t know who is going to win this, they are all super talented. TJVG finished 5th overall in the Tour last year and won this. He didn’t look great in the Tour De Swiss this year which is a worry. There are not as many TT this year which is a disadvantage to him and how much will he have to ride for Evans. Pinot has been in great form this year and will go well. His TT will let him down though but he should go close. Quintana is the unknown quantity, he is an explosive rider and one for the future. He is an outstanding climber but the big question mark is will he last the 3 week Tour, this is his first one. Talansky is an outside bet, but I don’t think he can climb with the best of them yet. If Quintana can last the 3 week tour he wins this easily, that is the big question though. TJVG form doesn’t look to be good enough at the moment. Pinot has the least question marks over him and I will have a small bet on him at 4/1.

Team classification

I’ll take on the top 2 in the betting here, Sky and Moviestar. I think Sky will all have to work for Froome and even there best men will lose time in the mountains. I don’t think Moviestar have a deep enough team to win it this year. Garmin makes most appeal for me with Martin, Talansky, Hesjedal and Danielson. These lads have the potential to all be in the top 20. They will also gain time in the TT’s over the rest of the teams. So the 6/1 looks tasty. I think Saxo Tinkoff will go well too. While it will all be geared around Contador, Rodgers, Roche and Kreuziger will all climb well. So I think they are worth a punt at the price. Again the prices are very skimpy here but I expect Mollema 5/4, Pinot 4/5, Rolland 6/4 and Evans evs to be in the top 10. I think Contador at evs with>PP W/O Froome is free money bar a crash. I'll look at the KOM later and riders to win a stage. 3pt win Contador 11/4 generally to win Tour 4pts e/w Rodriguez 20/1 >PP to win Tour 0.5 pts e/w Pinot 100/1 bet 365 to win Tour 5pt win Sagan win points jersey evens Ladbrokes 2pt win Pinot young rider 4/1 >Boyles 2pt Saxo win team classification 19/4 bet 365 2pts Garmin win Team class 7/1 >Boyles 8pts Contador win Tour w/o Froome evens >PP. 3pts Mollema top 10 5/4 VC 4pts Pinot top 10 4/5 bet 365 4pts Evans top 10 evens Bet 365 2pts Rolland 6/4 top 10 >PP.The 1st stage is tomorrow and I expect Cavendish to win this easily. He is 10/11 at the moment but barring a crash he wins this. I was expecting him to be 1/2. I think the layers are being very genorous since it is the 1st stage. I haven't time for reasoning but Martin over 0.5 7/4, Voeckler over 0.5 evens. Quintana over 0.5 evs. Anton over 0. 5 2/1 for stage wins is good 8pts Cavendish to win 1st stage 10/11 >PP 2pts Martin over 0.5 stages 7/4 2pts Voeckler over 0.5 stages evens 4pts Quintana over o.5 stages evens 3pts Anton over 0.5 stages 2/1.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Tour De France I've taken Igor Anton to win the KOTM - 31.00 (NSW TAB - think 29's still available online). Euskaldel DS has reportedly said the team with target the KOM jersey with Anton and Nieve but I prefer Anton. I think he's a more explosive and talented climber and he's also a bigger price. With MTF's worth double points it's not inconceivable that Froome or another GC rider could take this but with a few key breakaway stages offering big points I think a combination of aggression in these stages and solid efforts in the Queen stages will secure this jersey.

[SnakeBg]

Re: Tour De France

Not saying that won't happen but your reasoning makes no sense. Sagan didn't dominate Cavendish in the sprints they both contested it was the other way round. Sent from my GT-I8190N using PL Forum

Not pretending to be a specialist , just sharing my thoughts.

[Darran]

Re: Tour De France

Not pretending to be a specialist ' date=' just sharing my thoughts.[/quote'] But what you wrote was wrong. Sagan won the green jesery easily, but in the flat sprints Cavendish beat him everytime they went up against each other. It is important to note that these two are very different things.

[Darran]

Re: Tour De France Blimey antogz you have risked 55 points (not including the stage 1 bet) and that is a lot, you need quite a few to win to make a profit, but good luck to you. As for Contador, just have a feeling he will bomb out this year. It will be interesting to see how he gets on now. Everyone keeps mentioning his great Tour record, but lets be fair the chances he was on drugs for those two wins looks pretty high. Also I think Froome will gain a fair bit of time on the time-trails. Just don't see how Contador can overturn the Dauphine form even allowing for the fact he would not have been at his peak there, but neither would Froome have been.

[Darran]

Just when you think you have seen it all in the tour something else goes and happens. Fingers crossed Sagan isn't badly hurt. Sent from my GT-I8190N using PL Forum

[Merc]

Re: Tour De France Looks like Contador is hurt as well.

[SnakeBg]

Re: Tour De France Contador was not involved in the fall. He was blocked , so he had to stop, as well as Cavendish. Sagan seems to be the most affected from all this.

[Darran]

Was considering backing Kittel e/w today as well. He was a cert once the big 3 were out. Sent from my GT-I8190N using PL Forum

[Darran]

Apparently contador had rips in his jersey. Geirant Thomas and Tony Martin seem to have come off the worse. I know Thomas is off to hospital for a X ray. Martin is out of the tour as he has broken a collarbone. Not great for Cavendish. Sent from my GT-I8190N using PL Forum

[SnakeBg]

Re: Tour De France Lol. Tony Martin don't have luck in the Tour. Last year the same **** happened... Too bad

[disposal bag]

Re: Tour De France

Great analysis addpea. Be aware that Rolland had some problems with his cortisol. agree with the quintana bet for the king of the mountains. Also Rodriguez can pick up some points at unibet you get odds 19. With vd broeck we dont't know if he is 100 procent fit, he was struggling with his condition. maybe 0.5 points to win the king of the mountains if he can reach his good form later in the week. At unibet odds 65! Tomorrow of course first chance van Cav, griepel, kittel,bouhnani. But with sprinting there is some luck involved as well and with kristoff in good form i will take 1 point that he will finish in top three odds 6 at unibet

Thats a good start:)

[Darran]

Thats a good start:)

If slightly fortunate lol. Sent from my GT-I8190N using PL Forum

[disposal bag]

Re: Tour De France Thats why i said in sprinting there is some luck involved