2013 Epsom Oaks

[jayalexander]

The Galileo filles have the best sire stats by far! Sent from my GT-I9100 using PL Forum

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: 2013 Epsom Oaks Not sure it's a betting race really. Think LN will be a fair bit better than the Musidora run...she didn't look so devoid of speed over Goodwood's mile beating a useful horse when green on debut so shouldn't be limited to a slow horse based on one run. Still, is a big thing so the track would be of concern. Secret Gesture most likely winner probably with LN staying on all the time but just a question of whether the bird has flown before she finds her full stride.

[the finster]

Re: 2013 Epsom Oaks [h=5]Finbarr Finn[/h] Epsom Oaks - Moth 7/2: ran a good 3rd on the Guineas normally a good trial however O Briens comments after the race - I think she´ll be better on a more even track. When I asked her to quicken she just took a bit longer than I expected to respond. - Joseph O´Brien, jockey - is offputting. Liber Nauticus 5/1: won the Musidora but it was in a pedestrian time and this big framed filly may not be suited to Epsoms undulations. Secret Gesture 5/2: looked impressive winning the Lingfield Oaks Trial by 10 l but probably had very little to beat. With winners priced 20/1,20/1,9/1 and 33/1 over the last 5 yrs it may pay to look for some e/w value among the less fancied runners. Talent 16/1: won the Pretty Polly and showed good battling qualities to do so, she may be the 2nd string from Becketts stable but with Richard Hughes taking the ride i think she could run a big race. Also in the Pretty Polly Madame Defarge was finishing strongly only to be denied a clear passage in the closing stages, there will be worse 25/1 chances. BET365 prices.

[richard-westwood]

Re: 2013 Epsom Oaks easier than normal oaks for me ..banoffee comes out top on speed ratings and had trouble in running ......would have preferred faster ground but rating of 86 with potential improvement.......the 10/1 on betfair looks no brainer for me ...........with moth having same rating over 1 mile and banoffees over 11.5 and moth priced up less 5pts win for me

[Machine]

Re: 2013 Epsom Oaks Computer selections Liber Nauticus 63pts @ 6.5 Banoffie 37pts @ 11 Statistically unbeaten runners win 30% of the time next time out in non H/cps. Backing the above I should get true odds of 4/6 (1.66) the pair. With the current available odds Im getting 3/1 (4.00) the pair Seems a reasonable bet to me. :hope

[The Saint]

Re: 2013 Epsom Oaks

I hate it when you watch something over and over and you start to doubt that your own eyes..... :( I think that Moth ran a great trial for the Oaks in the 1,000 Gns. Out of Galileo she may relish the extra 4f and at the moment, I'd have her on an almost identical mark to the favourite. Definatly has pace to burn and was hampered twice in the run @ Newmarket. Lost a length to Sky Lantern and then another through a lack of momentum (at least I hope it was that as opposed to not acting in the dip) and without checking, I'd wager that she clocked the fastest last furling of all the runners that day. Looking @ the exchange markets noone seems to agree..... :( Can't have Liber Nauticus who reminds me of a hippo and I think Talent is overpriced at the exchange price(24.0). On my figures and tissue the Fav was exactly the price she should be @ 5/2.

Sky Lantern, Kingsgate Native, Talent & Farhh all mentioned as being overpriced..... None of which featured in my BBOTD selections!!! Well done Rio - hope you took em to the cleaners :clap