2013 Epsom Oaks

[Primevil]

Now we have all the information in on the trials, Where are you going? Moth 4/1 Secrect Gesture 7/2 Libre Nauticus 5/1 These are best prices with 16 days to go. 10/1 Bar. For me the improver has to be Secret Gesture, the way she went at Lingfield was a treat, I have always said about Moth, that I would not back her with fony money, LN looks like she needs another race, I expect her to go for the Ribblesdale, then on to the Irish Oaks. 7/2 Secret Gesture looks like the big value to me... Your thoughts.?

[Primevil]

Re: 2013 Epsom Oaks As no one has put anything here... Ill put the following are a disgrace, BET365 STANJAMES BETVICTOR or pricing up the following in the OAKS... ALIVE ALIVE OH....& SKY LANTERN 10/1 for both. Either one have NO chance of turning up for the Epsom Oaks,,,Every penny counts, but this is plain thievery if they take a bet for any of these. Disgrace.

[Primevil]

Re: 2013 Epsom Oaks Add BOYLES & William Hill into the above bracket.... BIG BREAK 16/1..............Have a million to one....her turning up.

[Primevil]

Re: 2013 Epsom Oaks This now is looking more and more like a single number field, I dont expect more than 10 on the day, maybe even lower. 4 is the record, dont think we will get that low.

[Trotter]

Re: 2013 Epsom Oaks I thought that Liber Nauticus who won the Musidora was a huge beast and might not be suited by Epsom, even though she won at Goodwood as a 2yo

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: 2013 Epsom Oaks

I thought that Liber Nauticus who won the Musidora was a huge beast and might not be suited by Epsom' date=' even though she won at Goodwood as a 2yo[/quote'] Yeah I saw someone say she'd enjoy the Albert Bartlett which made me chuckle. That's my main concern. I think there's plenty more to come from her but you compare her to The Fugue who won the Musidora last year and they're a lot different. Still far from decided on both Epsom classics personally.

[Aidymac]

Re: 2013 Epsom Oaks Was I the only one that thought Liber Nauticus was nothing special? :unsure She looked rather one-paced to my eyes, and will have to improve a lot. Romantic Settings was finishing the race faster than Liber Nauticus was.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: 2013 Epsom Oaks

Was I the only one that thought Liber Nauticus was nothing special? :unsure She looked rather one-paced to my eyes' date=' and will have to improve a lot. Romantic Settings was finishing the race faster than Liber Nauticus was.[/quote'] Yeah she didn't look very speedy but was comfortably on top but it's difficult to say how good the race was. Obviously going to improve for 1m4f but nothing to get carried away with, no. That was only her second start as well I guess so I reckon there's plenty more to come. Would say she looks more of an Irish Oaks filly to me but obviously it's difficult to resist Epsom.

[Primevil]

Re: 2013 Epsom Oaks Libre N for me wont go there, They would like to, Im sure, However, She looks like a true galloper, and the Ribblesdale makes sense, G2, galloping track, then if she was good enough, 5 weeks later to the Curragh, for the oaks.

[mowgli77]

Re: 2013 Epsom Oaks

Libre N for me wont go there' date=' They would like to, Im sure, However, She looks like a true galloper, and the Ribblesdale makes sense, G2, galloping track, then if she was good enough, 5 weeks later to the Curragh, for the oaks.[/quote'] They have suggested she's too big and will get unbalanced so looks like they will swerve Epsom and go to Ireland like you say.

[erhaab1965]

Re: 2013 Epsom Oaks Libre N currently 3/1 is she a big lay for Epsom?

[Primevil]

Re: 2013 Epsom Oaks

Libre N currently 3/1 is she a big lay for Epsom?

Put it this way,,,i think its ground dependedent...if its to fast, they wont take a chance with her. She is good, but the more time she gets, she could be very top draw in the filly dept. And do they want to spoil her attitude by not enjoying her racing, if Epsom is going to make her sour?

[Primevil]

Re: 2013 Epsom Oaks Secret gesture and DA oaks n Derby double, the value at 6 1/2 to 1 i am all over SG at bigger prices but if she wins the oaks DA is already weighed in for me.

[Primevil]

Re: 2013 Epsom Oaks 12 STAND

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: 2013 Epsom Oaks Going to be getting my lucky pin out for this one. Only a handful have recorded an RPR over 100 and none of them standout. I could easily see one of the lesser fancied runners improve from nowhere.

[Primevil]

Re: 2013 Epsom Oaks OR 111 secret gesture. I am struggling finding any winner of the last 10 Oaks winners near or beating this rating. On Friday it looks like it will be Good ground with a bit of Good/Soft around the place. Beckett says "although she has won on Soft, she will be a far better filly on better ground", For me the Filly will take some stopping on Friday, and dont be surprised if she turned into a rout. I would say she should be 6/4 or even shorter, she would be if a top yard had her, the stable and jockey are in top form, and she is still 5/2 in some places....If your using a lucky pin, you'd better hope it lands on her, a 5 star nap selection for me standing out like a beacon, Distance will be second here, I have never ever been so confident about a classic.

[Primevil]

Re: 2013 Epsom Oaks Another 5mm of rain overnight, and some possible heavy showers today, A beautiful day tomorrow with temps up to 20 degrees. I would imagine the call of Good to Soft would be about right. Best prices for all as follows. 11 go to post, at the moment. Secret G 5/2 Moth 3/1 Libre N 7/2 Banoffee 8/1 Say 12/1 Talent 16/1 Madame Defarge 25/1 The Lark 33/1 Gertrude Versed 40/1 ROZ 50/1 Miss you 100/1

[The Saint]

Re: 2013 Epsom Oaks I hate it when you watch something over and over and you start to doubt that your own eyes..... :( I think that Moth ran a great trial for the Oaks in the 1,000 Gns. Out of Galileo she may relish the extra 4f and at the moment, I'd have her on an almost identical mark to the favourite. Definatly has pace to burn and was hampered twice in the run @ Newmarket. Lost a length to Sky Lantern and then another through a lack of momentum (at least I hope it was that as opposed to not acting in the dip) and without checking, I'd wager that she clocked the fastest last furling of all the runners that day. Looking @ the exchange markets noone seems to agree..... :( Can't have Liber Nauticus who reminds me of a hippo and I think Talent is overpriced at the exchange price(24.0). On my figures and tissue the Fav was exactly the price she should be @ 5/2.

[Primevil]

Re: 2013 Epsom Oaks The first two furlongs will be very interesting, Moth and Secret Gesture drawn 1 and 2....Who gets shuffled back, who moves forward early, that early position could prove vital. LN drawn to the middle to outside, so should have a perfect position.

[Lodge]

Re: 2013 Epsom Oaks I'm on Secret Gesture. Mightily impressive in that Oaks trial, gets the trip, will handle the ground if it is soft and is clear on the ratings. I must admit i don't think that much to the others bar Moth, although am i right in thinking she wouldn't want it too soft?

[Stevet1859]

Re: 2013 Epsom Oaks 4:00 Epsom: Roz 1pt e/w 50/1 Bet365 (1/4 123) Roz comes in to the race the third highest rated thanks to some decent efforts as a two year old. She won a Listed race at Sandown and was then second in the Fillies Mile in September at Newmarket. Roz ran poorly in the 2000 Guineas however so there may be doubt whether she has trained on, yet she ran last first time on her debut so there is a decent chance Roz can improve considerably. Not surprisingly Jim Crowley prefers Secret Gesture however big race jockey Johnny Murtagh is a fine substitute. Roz looks likley to improve for this distance and could well outrun her price.

[robertob]

Re: 2013 Epsom Oaks 16.00 Epsom: Say @ 16/1 Betfair - 1pt win I always liked Moth, I said in another thread here straight after her maiden win which I saw with my own eyes at the Curragh that she's potentially a really, really smart filly. Not everyone believed me at that time, but her performance in the Guineas clearly backed the suggestion. I fancy her strongly for the Oaks, with the longer trip in her favour, but I can't have her for the short price in a race that looks wide open. The price is drifting into a direction I rather like now, but still it's too short and I feel her stable companion Say is underestimated. She looks a big price and is the value in this race in my mind. She made big impressions on all her three starts in her career and improved nicely from 2 to 3. It's interesting that she made her debut in the same race at Navan last year as Moth did and both finished fifth and sixth that day while Say looked actually the better prospect after having loads to do in the home straight staying on nicely in the closing stages though. She was put away after that an re-appeared at Leopardstown in April this year again in a Maiden over 10f. The sprint finish clearly didn't suit her that day and it took her a while to find another gear but she stayed on really strongly and beat the eventual winner a few strides after the line. She got then finally off the mark three weeks ago at Cork. A really poor maiden, she was a short favourite and entitled to win it easily. She did so in the end on gruelling ground in really impressive fashion however. She travelled always strongly in a prominent position and kicked easily away from the rest of the field in a matter of strides. it's a big step up from a poor maiden at Cork right into Group 1 class in the Oaks, of course, but she's lovely bred, bred to do exactly this job over this distance, and I think she is a bit of an unknown quantity here tomorrow, which makes her really interesting for the price though as she is bound to improve.

[Primevil]

Re: 2013 Epsom Oaks The Ground tomorrow is Good to Soft Soft in places..after some heavy showers...The worst of the ground is all the way down the home straight, on the far side. Expect them to come to the centre or close to the stands side,,,,6.3 v 6.6 on the scale is a big difference. But obviousley the camber will drag most to the far side, My thoughts are if your horse dont act with give underfoot, and more to the point stay the distance, it may be in trouble.

[egg]

Re: 2013 Epsom Oaks Madame Defarge e/w for me at the prices(25s). Arguably unlucky behind Talent in Pretty Polly and will appreciate the softer ground and even more so if there's further rain. Unexposed still and should improve for the trip, wide draw to overcome but odds more than compensate. Secret Gesture has looked very good but her price reflects this and there's no value to be had there. Moth will be on the premises a she is bred for the trip and ran well in the Guineas which form was franked by Just The Judge. The Oaks is a race for upsets.

[skylark2009]

Re: 2013 Epsom Oaks Might be worth while taking on Secret Gesture and possibly Moth, drawn in stalls 1 and 2. You would have to go back to 1990 (Salsabil) to find a winner drawn in stall 1 with no other horses placing or winning in the following 23 years. Stall 2 last won in 2005 (Eswarah) with 2 2nd's and 4 3rd's in the last 15 years. It looks to be a wide open Oaks with none of the runners standing out. Most have been placed in one the recognised 'Oaks Trials' (Pretty Polly, Musidora, Sweetenham etc) which has thrown up 8 of the last 10 winners of the Oaks. I am pretty much in the same frame of mind a Blazing Bailey here and think the winner will come from outside the first two in the betting. 1pt Lay to place - Secret Gesture 1pt Lay to win - Moth

[mowgli77]

Re: 2013 Epsom Oaks Race Preview from home page: http://www.punterslounge.com/epsom-betting-moth-to-improve-at-12f-and-land-the-oaks-for-the-o-brien-s-20130531 Moth is worth a flutter ;)

[mowgli77]

Re: 2013 Epsom Oaks I'd have Moth as favourite ahead of Secret Gesture based on form and class. The 1000 Guineas was by far the best trial with Sky Lantern already a group 1 winner before that race and Just The Judge franking form in Ireland. I am not a big fan of Lingfield trials and although Secret Gesture won impressively I can't help but think she'll get found out at Epsom against better horses. Wouldn't surprise me to see Say run a big race or The Lark, both at decent prices.

[erhaab1965]

Re: 2013 Epsom Oaks Secret Gesture for me, I hope the others especially LN are Flights of Fancy. GL all.

[cpo]

Re: 2013 Epsom Oaks Surprised to see so much negativity surrounding the Stoute horse in this. I have backed Liber Nauticus pretty big so I am hoping she goes well. She certainly wasn't spectacular at York, but she did the job well in the end. The extra yardage will suit here and I expect her to come on massively for the run in the Musidora. I don't expect her to come there swinging away on the bridle but I think once she hits the final couple of furlongs and she is close up, she will prove very tough to stop. Yard is in form, Ryan Moore is on board and I think she will win. I also like Thistle Bird in the first. I have backed each in singles and had an each way double on the two :hope Good luck today everyone.

[Aidymac]

Re: 2013 Epsom Oaks Secret Gesture for me. Has been by far and away the most impressive horse on the eye. I think the race could be over before Moth gets going. Wouldn't rule out the Gosden horse Getrude Versed to sneak a place at a huge price either. Good race in store.