England > Antepost > Conference Premier League 2013/2014

[Win3]

Re: England > Antepost > Conference Premier League 2013/2014 Luton town were 4/1 favourites last season and they barely made it into the top half, probably best to avoid. If I was asked for a selection to win the league, I'd side with Kidderminster to keep their momentum going and win the league.

[Darran]

Re: England > Antepost > Conference Premier League 2013/2014 BetVics are 14/1 on Aldershot to finish bottom which is obviously a sporting play given they will be behind everyone else at the start of the season and as Ships says they are in a bit of a mess right now. Chester are now 8/1 with Skybet for the League. One of the worse value bets you will ever see.

[Win3]

Re: England > Antepost > Conference Premier League 2013/2014

BetVics are 14/1 on Aldershot to finish bottom which is obviously a sporting play given they will be behind everyone else at the start of the season and as Ships says they are in a bit of a mess right now. Chester are now 8/1 with Skybet for the League. One of the worse value bets you will ever see.

Yh I agree chester are bad value but bookies are taking no chances, I've followed chester for the last few years and thought I got great value a 4/1 to win their league last season, they won it by Christmas more or less, and finished 16 or something points clear, wouldn't surprise me to see a top 6 finish, although this time to win outright in my opinion is something they won't do.

[Shipsupstreets]

Re: England > Antepost > Conference Premier League 2013/2014

BetVics are 14/1 on Aldershot to finish bottom which is obviously a sporting play given they will be behind everyone else at the start of the season and as Ships says they are in a bit of a mess right now.

Good spot, addpea. That price is into 11s now, while the initial 6s on Aldershot to be bottom four - still available after the AGM - is down to a much more realistic 2s. They do look in something of a cul-de-sac at the moment. Entrance to the Conference Prem is a hardly a free pass, as they have to get on top of their football debts and also sort out their other debts. There might be some leeway on the latter if they can get those who are owed money to write things off, but some creditors will be waiting to see what emerges from the ongoing discussions with interested parties - if someone with deep pockets does enter the picture, then they might do better waiting than accepting a penny-in-the-pound deal now. There are some parallels here with the situation at Torquay some years ago when they looked equally shot until a mid-summer takeover. The difference is that they didn't have administration to deal with and that there is hardly the same money about as there was then. As investment potential Aldershot doesn't present a very attractive picture. There isn't much clarity at the moment and progress is slow, but that's understandable given the fact that the administrators are in and the Trust has just been set up. On the playing side they have just a handful of senior players left. Craig Reid we know all about and is quite an asset to have in the Conference, but otherwise the remaining stock of seniors looks young and inexperienced. There is a real chance that they'll be starting the season with a young squad supplemented by loanees and short-term contract players. It's not impossible to secure Premier status with that arrangement, so long as there is vision and commitment off the pitch. At the moment, there is little sign of that emerging any time soon and overcoming the -10 is a huge hurdle to clear. Unless someone comes in with a lot of dosh, the key thing the new regime has to bear in mind is to meet the financial conditions imposed by the league. It's all very well blowing a bit of cash to make sure they stay up, but unless they make sufficient inroads into their debt they'll be demoted next season two leagues anyway - far worse to do that and end up in the Southern Prem, than to mix, match and muddle their way through this season and maybe uncover a few youngsters who can point the way forward next season even if they start in the Conference South. I can't see the shape of the division as a whole being much different to last season, with a host of teams going into Easter being worried about the drop. The way things are at the moment - and it may change, of course, as the administrators update the situation and the Trust finds its feet - there is a very good chance that Aldershot will be one of those. Certainly, there's a much better chance than the initial 6/1, and probably slightly better than the existing 2/1. Given that they may have to go part-time to ensure they fulfil all their fixtures, that 14/1 to finish bottom that addpea highlighted is an excellent play, and even the existing 11/1 looks to have a bit of slack in it.

[Shipsupstreets]

Re: England > Antepost > Conference Premier League 2013/2014 Two events at Aldershot yesterday. Firstly the administrators announced that there is "genuine interest" in the club and that "good progress is being made with interested parties". More will be revealed in a week or so, they say, adding that the key objective is that the club are playing in the Conference Prem next season. I doubt this was ever going to say much, so long as discussions are ongoing. The key question is the identity of who they are discussing things with: someone with deep pockets who is prepared to cover the debts and fund a competitive campaign, or perhaps past directors who want a piece of the action now. But it's probably significant that despite the largely bland message there are no hints of a warning contained in what they say - they are some steps from pulling the plug completely (though it should be remembered that who ever takes over will have to settle the administrators' bill). The second event was the newly reinvigorated trust meeting, which drew about 400 bodies - a pretty impressive attendance. They are attempting to raise enough money to run the club next season, though an agreement with the administrators means that they can't say how much has been raised (that's a sensible tactic, because if there are outsiders bidding any figure would give them a strategic advantage). Lots of twists and turns to come yet, but a trust-run club that sticks to very prudent financial constraints is probably the most likely outcome, although some alliance of local businessmen or former directors can't be ruled out either - it's up to the administrators to decide whether anyone can run the club as a going concern. It's not impossible that there is someone out there with big money (like the Ebbsfleet situation, where the investing group were sniffing round Eastbourne Borough for a while), but there hasn't been the slightest indication that this is the case. It also remains a possibility that the club will be folded by the administrators, but I also think that is unlikely, given that they had enough time to go through the books before the AGM. There would have been no point in the administrators attending and securing Prem status if they thought the club was dead in the water. They are now 7/4 to go down and 9/1 to finish bottom with BetVics. They've so far got two friendlies arranged for the 20th and 24th July and as yet no first team squad to speak of.

[Darran]

Re: England > Antepost > Conference Premier League 2013/2014 Another former league club is Macclesfield who need cash before the start of the season. Given the amount of money they made from their FA Cup run it is surprising how in much in trouble they are.

[Shipsupstreets]

Re: England > Antepost > Conference Premier League 2013/2014

Another former league club is Macclesfield who need cash before the start of the season. Given the amount of money they made from their FA Cup run it is surprising how in much in trouble they are.

The short-term problems announced last night are certainly a surprise but it has been clear for a while that the King experience would need to be paid for and there have been substantial rumours of a budget cut of as much as 80% this season. I'm kicking myself that I didn't take the 12/1 for bottom four that I pointed out last week when BetVics' prices went up. What put me off taking the chunky price was the fact that I got the impression Macc had been lining up the ducks to deal with the issues for a while. At first, I was a bit baffled by the appointment of the new management team after all the talk of someone high profile coming in, but it actually makes sense to have someone in place who lives and breathes the club and who can probably attract the type of player that's needed. The move to community ownership, though desperate, is another positive step - a signal that someone at the club has a good idea of what needs to be done. I'd feel comfortable with some of Macc at 12s to go down but this is club that has stopped digging a hole for themselves and provided they can get through the next couple of months in okay shape they should survive.

[Shipsupstreets]

Re: England > Antepost > Conference Premier League 2013/2014 The Aldershot administrators have sent out a document to shareholders setting out the terms of the CVA ahead of a forthcoming shareholders meeting. It shows total debts of £1.4 million, which is higher than the already unwieldy £1 million that has been suggested. There is some grounds for optimism, though, as the administrators say they are in negotiations with a preferred bidder, who must be aware of the state of play. A very interesting month ahead for them, but it's impossible for them to reduce the debt substantially while still running a full-time team. The possibility of them not making it to the start of the season has also got a little stronger.

[Mogwai]

Re: England > Antepost > Conference Premier League 2013/2014 I haven't got anything to add to all this as I don't follow non-league too extensively. I did, however, just want to say that I really appreciate your input, Ships and Addpea. There's some real quality info you provide and always well written too.

[Shipsupstreets]

Re: England > Antepost > Conference Premier League 2013/2014 I haven’t been much involved with the outright winner for this section as yet, as I’m finding it hard to get enthused about any value available. The early betting has hardened into Luton Town and Forest Green Rovers at the top, to which I'd say 'Luton, maybe; FGR, no.' FGR started the summer trading furiously and have no doubt bagged some potentially impressive bodies, but there are doubts about Dave Hockaday’s ability to get the best out of them, and the long contracts on offer are both a sign of bullishness and a worry. He had some injury excuses last term, but not quite as many as were needed to explain the stop-start nature of the season. I really can’t see any value in 9/2 outright. Luton Town: I’ve been backing them for years and each June I seem to be apologising for wanting to back them again. So, it's sorry again. Are there sound reasons to think this season will be any different? Tentatively, yes. I was relatively happy with Paul Buckle leading them into the last campaign, but in truth he never gave the impression of operating with anything like a strategy to win the league. John Still is a lot more focused in that regard, and has thus far bagged some decent signings in his squad refresh. Some weeks ago on here Kevshat was saying that an experienced central defender was needed – step forward Anthony Charles. I’ve paid little attention to what he was up to last season, but if fit he’s a tremendous asset to have. Still also needs to get a fair bit more out of some key players – my shout last season on this thread that Andre Gray would become a star of the section wasn’t one of my proudest. The jury’s out because the jury’s always been out on Luton’s league chances, but I think they’ll be contenders. A best of 5/1 (Corals) is takeable. Grimsby Town faltered late season but I trust in the Scott/Hurst team. I’d expect a similar strong defence and team ethic, with perhaps a bit more of a direct approach to goal as they started to look weak up front towards the end of the season. A fit Liam Hearn could make a difference and with a decent budget allowing them to dip in and out of the market they should go well. A best of 9/1 is a touch of value. Gateshead are down as my surprise package this season. They could be losing Josh Gillies soon, which leaves them short of width and creativity, but Anth Smith has done enough for me to show that he can keep a calm head through difficult times. Last season they defended moderately well, attacked superbly and finished like a Sunday league team. They’ve definitely bagged some decent options up front with Adam Boyes, Colin Larkin and Richard Brodie. They need some midfield options too, but the package is starting to look impressive. I've taken some of the initial 66/1 EW on offer, and even at the existing 50s there is some mileage. Kidderminster Harriers' starting XI and squad may not be the sort of dream-team you’d put together on paper but they’ve the best manager in the section by some distance. Steve Burr’s ability to polish turds is second to none, and though I’m not particularly fussed by the arrival of Jamie Tolley, Lee Fowler and James Dance, I’m sure he will get performances out of them that other managers haven’t. There is a danger that Burr may be off to a bigger job at some point in the season but that’s an occupational hazard for anyone punting down here, where quality does fly the nest. The rather odd appointment of Jon Harris as general manager at the club has raised some eyebrows, though Kidderminster give the impression of being impressively run. After that, it all gets heavily squashed with potential contenders. Cambridge United and Lincoln City have been bagging some signings, and it's Cambridge who look to have done the best business. I'm a little surprised there has not been more interest in the 12s about them. I suppose there is a sense in which they are reprising last season's effort - spending the summer bringing in a lot of good young talent, which didn't work too well - but I think they've done rather better than last June. There is raw potential there but not yet a points-driven mentality to become contenders. Lincoln should be safe but I can't see them being up there. I've a notion that Barnet will gain much impetus from life at the Hive, but I have to confess I'm largely ignorant of how they'll be set up this season. I wouldn't be surprised by a top five finish but I've no grounds for recommending it. I always underestimate Wrexham, and I'm going to do that again: I can't quite see them making the play-offs. I've a current top five of Luton Town, Grimsby Town, Gateshead, Kidderminster Harriers and Cambridge United. Other than Gateshead - a hugely speculative play - I've not indulged in any other singles on the outright winner, but I'll no doubt be including something of Luton and Grimsby in league accas. I've much stronger fancies in the North and the South, and in the Premier relegation market, where I've already been quite busy. One of BetVics' novelty plays does appeal - Alfreton Town at 5/1 for a top half finish. The move to part-time is probably what explains the reason for them being written off, but it has had little impact on the squad. They were only a couple of points off top-half last season and at 5/1 I'll take a chance that they'll go better this season.

[Shipsupstreets]

Re: England > Antepost > Conference Premier League 2013/2014 On the relegation markets I've been busy with the initial offerings on Aldershot, which have now been cut. Unless something happens in the meantime, the administrators are a week or so away from making another statement. A mad midsummer play is Forest Green Rovers bottom four, which I've taken at 80/1 with BetVics. Given the strength of the squad it is, of course, preposterous to suggest they'll be anything like relegation fodder, and in their current state they won't be. But of all the teams in the section they are the ones most reliant on one person's current account. Of course, this is the model that has done pretty well for Fleetwood Town and to a lesser extent Mansfield Town, but there is also a inherent danger in there. The club also seem to be unusually knitted to the business - a business that is very successful and looks strong but that has attracted some adverse comment in the financial press about its funding model. There is no evidence that anything will go wrong any time soon, but if a landing is required it will be a hard one, and for that reason I’m risking some of the antepost bank on a big price. It's not one for widows and orphans.

[Shipsupstreets]

Re: England > Antepost > Conference Premier League 2013/2014 Aldershot have cancelled their two home friendlies against Orient and a Reading XI, but have arranged trips to Sutton and Basingstoke for the last Saturday in July and the first Saturday in August. The reason given is that they need to give the pitch time to heal.

[kevshat]

Re: England > Antepost > Conference Premier League 2013/2014

Luton Town: I’ve been backing them for years and each June I seem to be apologising for wanting to back them again. So' date=' it's sorry again. Are there sound reasons to think this season will be any different? Tentatively, yes. I was relatively happy with Paul Buckle leading them into the last campaign, but in truth he never gave the impression of operating with anything like a strategy to win the league. John Still is a lot more focused in that regard, and has thus far bagged some decent signings in his squad refresh. Some weeks ago on here Kevshat was saying that an experienced central defender was needed – step forward Anthony Charles. I’ve paid little attention to what he was up to last season, but if fit he’s a tremendous asset to have. Still also needs to get a fair bit more out of some key players – my shout last season on this thread that Andre Gray would become a star of the section wasn’t one of my proudest. The jury’s out because the jury’s always been out on Luton’s league chances, but I think they’ll be contenders. A best of 5/1 (Corals) is takeable.[/quote'] Can't disagree with any of that Ships. Happy that Still has brought in another experienced centre half and if previous title winning experience is anything to go by then we might ok at the back as all four likely starting defenders have all won this thing before. Still says that is us done unless he sees a weakness in pre-season. We have some interesting tests in pre-season which will certainly point out any weaknesses if there are any that's for sure. Personally I'd like one more centre back. At the minute Still is going with Lacey as back up (along with Parry and the Histon chap) but for me if Lacey was going to make it he would have done so by now and the fact he wasn't even tried last season when we couldn't defend a set piece if you offered us money says a lot. In terms of signings though perhaps the best one is the fitness coach he has brought in. That's clearly been an issue over the last 2 seasons with all these ridiculous injuries we've been getting so we should see our best team on the park more often. I think the big point you make there is Still is managing to a plan and that was something Buckle never did, nor Brabin before him. Although Buckle got a side promoted out of the division it was through the playoffs and the longer he was here the more the feeling seemed to be 'we're not going to win the league but we're too good not to make the playoffs so we'll take our chances in them cos I know how to win them'. Never going to work. I find it interesting that when Still came he was trotting out the 'we'll get out of this division within 2-3 years' whereas now everything is about promotion next season. Now obviously managers have to toe the party line and come out with that stuff to sell tickets and things but we've gone well past 4000 season ticket holders now so he doesn't need to come out with that unless he truly believes he has a squad to get out this season. Personally I think he saw us at our very worst at Braintree before he took over, thought the worst but has realised we're nowhere near that bad. If you think that he tinkered through his 12 games last season, not actually playing the strongest side he could in any of them, and we played the four teams who were in the playoffs come the end of the season in those games and only lost to Kidderminster through a dodgy decision and god knows how many hits of the woodwork and add to that the squad has strengthened since then with the signings of the likes of Whalley, Charles, Griffiths etc we're entitled to go well. Whether we find one or two too good remains to be seen but I would be very surprised if this isn't our closest tilt at this league in terms of either winning it or points we finish from top.

[Shipsupstreets]

Re: England > Antepost > Conference Premier League 2013/2014 Monday morning sounds like when there will be the next bit of news out of Aldershot, with the local paper suggesting there could be positive news from one of the two bidding consortiums at the CVA meeting scheduled for then. The fans' trust is still trying to get a foothold in the bidding process but seems to be falling short financially so they probably aren't one of the two bidders. Chances are that among the two bids are former directors who are owed money by the club for previous loans - that should be 'owed' and 'loans', as in 'last season, I loaned Ladbrokes some money for some speculative antepost bets, and now they owe me it back'.

[Shipsupstreets]

Re: England > Antepost > Conference Premier League 2013/2014 The figure emerging as the head of the consortium to save Aldershot according to forum chatter is Shahid Azeem, who was involved at the back end of last season and has plenty of experience from his time running Woking when they first landed in the Conference South a few years back. Even though he's one of the people on the list of those owed substantial sums, this is not actually a bad result for the club as he has a reasonable footballing background and doesn't have the baggage of some of the previous board. He'll also have strong links in the local business community, too. If he does emerge as the administrators' favoured choice, he's clearly got a big job in sorting out the debts and getting a squad together, but at least they'll have a fighting chance of seeing the season out.

[Shipsupstreets]

Re: England > Antepost > Conference Premier League 2013/2014 Some talk on Twitter that as Thurrock's appeal against relegation has failed to be acknowledged by the FA, the appeal is automatically granted. I can't quite believe that is the case, though.

[bartonbank]

Re: England > Antepost > Conference Premier League 2013/2014 All it would require is for the FA to be inefficient, ships!

[Shipsupstreets]

Re: England > Antepost > Conference Premier League 2013/2014

All it would require is for the FA to be inefficient' date=' ships![/quote'] What surprised me with the story is that it would have meant the FA had been efficient enough to make a rule about their own inefficiencies. Turns out they haven't been that efficient at all, and they're still pondering the contents of Thurrock's letter. We may know their response next week.

[Shipsupstreets]

Re: England > Antepost > Conference Premier League 2013/2014 Aldershot latest: the administrators meeting for Monday has been cancelled, to further consider the single remaining bid for the club. That in itself is neither good nor bad news but the follow-up statement from the Trust today is pretty worrying: the club will run out of cash in early July, and the sole offer on the table to buy the club is not big enough to meet the financial terms imposed by the Conference. The consequences of this mean automatic relegation out of the Conference at the end of the season. It does seem like it is perfectly possible to run the club as a going concern while not meeting the Conference rules - by getting all those owed money to sign up to a CVA, say - but it presents a huge problem on the footballing side. Who will come to play for a side that's -10 and destined for the Southern or Ryman Prem, and who will pay to watch? It takes a lot of vision for someone to come in and run a club knowing that relegation is inevitable, while the alternative is to pull the plug now and start again in the Combined Counties next season. If they start the season, it's very hard to see them finishing in any other place but bottom of the pile. BetVics are still going 8s.

[Shipsupstreets]

Re: England > Antepost > Conference Premier League 2013/2014 BetVics have trimmed Aldershot to finish bottom to 2s and they're 2/5 for bottom four.

[Darran]

Re: England > Antepost > Conference Premier League 2013/2014 Got to be odds on Aldershot won't even start the season http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/23149055

[Shipsupstreets]

Re: England > Antepost > Conference Premier League 2013/2014

Got to be odds on Aldershot won't even start the season http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/23149055

Actually, there's nothing in the statement that didn't come out last week. I'd guess it's a calculated prompt to the press from the bidding side and administrators to smoke out the creditors who won't budge. Liquidation has been a much stronger possibility since last week, when the administrators said the preferred bidders didn't have enough to meet the terms the Conference imposed on them (which meant the creditors got everything back). So the creditors who were expecting 100% payback have now to accept a revised deal that the bidder can cover. Is 'x pence in the pound' better than Aldershot FC going to the wall? You'd think so, as that means some money back, rather than sweet FA. In almost all cases like this the creditors blink first, though there are examples where one individual has refused to budge out of personal feelings. Usually, a decent accountant will tell you that this is just business. Based on precedent, a deal will probably be done, so I don't think it's anything like odds on that they will go, though it all depends on the personalities involved - people can behave very oddly in these circumstances, and those involved with the running of football clubs are some of the most peculiar people you'll ever meet. An equally pressing point for Aldershot is that if they do survive, a revised creditors' agreement must be accepted by the Conference.

[Shipsupstreets]

Re: England > Antepost > Conference Premier League 2013/2014 More Aldershot stuff: the McGinty family, who've long been associated with the club through the late John McGinty and still had a presence on the board, have issued a statement explaining why they haven't signed up to the deal offered by the consortium. Must be pretty galling for them to come out of this chomping on a big loss while other former board members may actually end up running the club. This could be dangerous for Aldershot - when a passionate footballing family member passes the baton on, the next generation isn't always as in love with the club (Hull City fans of a certain age will remember the Needlers). But the words of the statement on BBC's Surrey's site say the family want to explain why they 'still' haven't accepted the deal. If that's accurate, it leaves room for manoeuvre. It's not a 'never accept'.

[YorkshireFootyFan]

Re: England > Antepost > Conference Premier League 2013/2014 I have no knowledge of the player ability at this level, what do you make of Halifax´s new signings and the team´s prospects. They have not been mentioned by Ships or Addpea so far which I´d assume means a steady season solidly in midtable.

[Shipsupstreets]

Re: England > Antepost > Conference Premier League 2013/2014

I have no knowledge of the player ability at this level' date=' what do you make of Halifax´s new signings and the team´s prospects. They have not been mentioned by Ships or Addpea so far which I´d assume means a steady season solidly in midtable.[/quote'] The step from the Conference regions to the national is the biggest in non-league but promoted clubs who are stable and have a shrewd management have a decent chance of making progress - a bit of momentum also helps. It looks like Aspin is staying loyal to his core squad and the addition of Josh Wilson is a particularly good bit of business. On the attacking side they look pretty good, but it won't all be about over-running the opposition this season and the midfield will need to be more combative when it comes to hanging on for a point when they are under the cosh, and in this regard Keith Briggs is an experienced head to have on board. I don't know what they have in the way of defensive cover, but that's the only question mark I have at the moment. In essence, I think the squad looks decent enough at the moment to score goals against the sides that they should be scoring goals against, and they have a reasonable chance of surviving. From a betting point of view, there's nothing that really appeals - top half and top five prices are a bit thin. In the bottom four market, I wouldn't have Halifax further out at 6s than Dartford, Woking, Braintree and Alfreton, and given that there are a lot of potential candidates for the drop this season there is a chance they could get dragged in to the dogfight if they suffer from injuries at crucial times, but given a fair wind I think they'll be okay.

[Darran]

Re: England > Antepost > Conference Premier League 2013/2014 I think Halifax have done pretty well with their signings and if you offered me a match bet between them and Chester I would go with Halifax. Having said that like Ships says it is hard to see any opportunites of backing them.

[Darran]

Re: England > Antepost > Conference Premier League 2013/2014 Great news that the BT Sports deal has been signed. 25 games and then the play-offs will be covered for the next two seasons.

[Shipsupstreets]

Re: England > Antepost > Conference Premier League 2013/2014 Aldershot's D-Day seems to have been postponed until tomorrow evening: the CVA and shareholders' meetings this morning saw some ground given by creditors and the revised terms of the CVA passed (as if the creditors had any choice). But the administrators are now saying that 50k is needed within 36 hours for the consortium bid to go through, otherwise the club will be liquidated. I'm not entirely sure what that money is needed for: perhaps to cover the shortfall between the anticipated running costs of the club and the offer from the consortium. It's also not entirely clear what the Conference will make of the revised terms.

[Shipsupstreets]

Re: England > Antepost > Conference Premier League 2013/2014 Elsewhere, Thurrock have been appearing in the early round FA Cup draws, but the FA have still to hear their appeal against demotion. It's now being heard on Tuesday at 11am. They've a strong case at face value but the late hearing of the appeal isn't a great signal.

[Shipsupstreets]

Re: England > Antepost > Conference Premier League 2013/2014 The deadline for the 50k to save Aldershot has been extended until Monday, with 28k still to go. It's a fine effort by the fans, who've already dipped into their pocket once this summer with the setting up of the Trust. There's no sense of the kind of budget the side will have next season, but if the consortium couldn't find the extra 50k needed they're probably not well funded (though they just may not want to show their hand). There are probably twists and turns to come, but should they get through to Tuesday they'll at least be able to start recruiting a side.