May 13 - May 19

[Guardiola]

Re: May 13 - May 19

Back Benoit Paire to beat Marcel Granollers. 1,73 @ marathonbet (7/10) Back Benoit Paire to beat Marcel Granollers in straight sets. 2,66 @ marathonbet (3/10) Totally convincing performance of Paire against Del Potro today. Clear service games, powerful anf aggressive play, some big shots and very concentrated in important situations. He should be clear favorite here. Granollers is no push-over, but he will definetely not get through, when Paire is playing nearly the stuff that we could see today. Back Simona Halep to beat Jelena Jankovic. 2,26 @ marathonbet (9/10). Crazy odds in my eyes. Another thrilling performance of Simona Halep today. She has now outplayed Vinci, Agnieska Radwanska and Kuznetsova here. Jankovic has beaten Na Li, okay, but I saw that game. You should definitely not overrate this win as the game of both players was very poor. Nothing special and a lot of unforced errors and slipping chances on both sides. I fancy Halep here to get to the semis.

Paire d. Granollers 6-1 6-0 :cigar Halep d. Jankovic 4-6 6-0 7-5 :cigar An absolute great match between Halep and Jankovic that could have gone either way. JJ had two match points, but overall, Halep´s win was highly deserved here. The most time, she was the better player, impressive shots. Halep had some mental problems at the beginning of the third set. Jankovic produced a lot of unforced errors in set no. 2 and it seemed to go on at the beginning of set no. 3. Halep was 30-0 in front, and then she suddenly makes 4 unforced in a row, losing that game. That brought JJ back, she found her game and was 3-0 in front. Then we saw absolute fantastic play from Halep. JJ was nearly at her best, but Halep pushed the balls, had controll of that game and had a house full of winners. So her win was highly deserved here - of course, at 3-3 the match could have gone either way. + 21 units today. :cigar

[quote]

Re: May 13 - May 19 The same Jankovic, 5-4 in decisive and serving, moreover 2 match points. What a fighter Romanian Halep! Good calls for all even if you lost.

[homunculus]

Re: May 13 - May 19

Jankovic to bt Halep @1.80 Pinnacle (6/10) :eyes oh well LOSS

that's -6 u for today, which brings me back to +13.7 u in Rome. Of course, in real life the play was to hedge either after 1st set (odds about 4.3 on Halep), or in the decider after JJ lost her 3-0 lead and managed to break again thus getting to 4-3 and serving (odds about 3.2 on Halep). That was the point I started to doubt, considering the bagel in the second. Looks like the results are getting too hard to predict. I grab my 13 u profit and see ya at Rolland Garros. edit: I am not going to post tips till RO, but guys - tomorrow Halep-Serena unders (whatever they are) is a lock :-)

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Re: May 13 - May 19 Nice one Guardiola your in some great form! I tipped Paire -2.5Games, wish i went for 2-0 now aha!

[Guardiola]

Re: May 13 - May 19 Back Martin Alund to beat Gael Monfils. 3,60 @ marathonbet (4/10) Am I missing something? It´s a Bordeaux Challenger quarter final game. Monfils is the favorite, I totally agree. But 3,60 on Alund? At a clay court he is no push-over, a typical Argentinian clay court grinder whom Monfils has to beat first and foremost. Above all, when you consider that this is not the kind of game Monfils likes. In my eyes there are many uncertaintys in that game. Has Monfils pleasure to play anyway? Can he motivate himself for a challenger? I´ve seen so many cruel performances of Monfils in recent days that I am willing to back any opponent of Monfils at a certain price. Alund is for sure not in his greatest shape, but at least he went through here to the quarters without losing a set. I can see him win (or lose in straight sets) here. These odds seem to be value and worth a shot.

[Guardiola]

Re: May 13 - May 19

Back Martin Alund to beat Gael Monfils. 3' date=60 @ marathonbet (4/10) Am I missing something? It´s a Bordeaux Challenger quarter final game. Monfils is the favorite, I totally agree. But 3,60 on Alund? At a clay court he is no push-over, a typical Argentinian clay court grinder whom Monfils has to beat first and foremost. Above all, when you consider that this is not the kind of game Monfils likes. In my eyes there are many uncertaintys in that game. Has Monfils pleasure to play anyway? Can he motivate himself for a challenger? I´ve seen so many cruel performances of Monfils in recent days that I am willing to back any opponent of Monfils at a certain price. Alund is for sure not in his greatest shape, but at least he went through here to the quarters without losing a set. I can see him win (or lose in straight sets) here. These odds seem to be value and worth a shot.

Monfils d. Alund 6-4 7-5

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Re: May 13 - May 19 Goffin the outsider against Monfils? Am I missing something? 2.25 @ Coral?

[Torque]

Re: May 13 - May 19 Back Victoria Azarenka to win WTA Internazionali BNL dItalia @ 5.30 >Betfair It's rare that I get involved in an outright market this late in a tournament, but I think Azarenka is worth backing at this stage. Ahead of the semi-finals, Serena Williams is a very short price to take the title in Rome, and whilst it's hard to argue with her form so far this week, if Azarenka is her opponent in the final then I think it could be a close run thing. Although Azarenka appeared to struggle at times in her quarter-final match against Stosur, the fighting qualities that she showed suggest to me that she is motivated this week. She will need to beat Errani in order to make the final, something that I expect her to do as she plays well against the Italian on clay. I'm sure Errani will have plenty of support, but I don't think that will be enough to see her through. Although it's possible Halep could beat Williams in the other semi-final, realistically it's unlikely and so it becomes a question of whether Azarenka can beat Williams in the final. Although Williams dominates the h2h, Azarenka was victorious the last time they met in the Doha final after the Australian Open. I think that could be important, as even though that match was on a hard court, Azarenka's most recent memory of playing Williams is of winning. I also think that Azarenka will be keen to show that she is still a big factor in Women's tennis, as during her recent absence from the tour due to injury, Sharapova and Williams have had a virtual monopoly on the big titles. Taking all these factors into account, and even though the price is relatively short, I think Azarenka could stop Williams from picking up another title.

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Re: May 13 - May 19 Goffin is oddsof 2.92 at Marathon bet i think they are really under estimating him

[CzechPunter]

Re: May 13 - May 19 Back Sara Errani (+1.5 sets) to beat Viktoria Azarenka for a 2/10 stake at 2.01 with Pinnacle Well, Azarenka looked quite average against Stosur yesterday, so I can see her struggling against the well-rested home favourite today. The match-up is obviously quite poor for the Italian, but she can always stay there with her grinding playing style and, unless Azarenka manages to up her level, I can see Errani getting a set off her. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/errani-vs-azarenka-betting-sara-errani-should-be-able-to-take-at-least-some-of-her-chances-against-azarenka-20130518 Back Benoit Paire (+1.5 sets) to beat Roger Federer for a 2/10 stake at 2.88 with Pinnacle For me, Paire has been one of the biggest surprises in Rome so far - and I think that he will be able to produce a good performance once again. It is hard to see him winning and even a set might be out of his range, but I would have the odds at somewhere around 2.50, so the set handicap looks like a fine choice to me here. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/paire-vs-federer-betting-benoit-paire-looks-value-against-roger-federer-in-rome-20130518

[Guardiola]

Re: May 13 - May 19 Back Benoit Paire to beat Roger Federer. 7,10 @ marathonbet (2/10) Back Benoit Paire (+1,5 sets) to beat Roger Federer. 2,88 @ pinnacle (3/10) Back Benoit Paire (+5 games) to beat Roger Federer. 1,83 @ pinnacle (5/10) Benoit Paire vs. Roger Federer over 20,5 games. 1,94 @ pinnacle (6/10) Okay, first of all, the most likely scenario here is a win of Roger Federer. But nevermind, these odds are too high, especially the lines. Benoit Paire is playing a fantastic tournament, beating Monaco in round 1, struggling against Benneteau and then playing thrilling stuff against Del Potro and crushing Granollers. I wrote something about his style of play yesterday, and I think that he has skills needed to cause trouble to former world no. 1. Especially his very good serve this week and his big groundstrokes makes him nearly unbreakable. So, I cannot understand lines like +5 oder over 20,5. They are far too low. In my opinion there are still questionmarks about Roger Federer´s shape on clay court, although he has beaten the grinders Starace and Simon quite comfortably. But they really lack weapons against such a player as Federer is. Yesterday Federer beat Janowicz, but the games wasn´t that thrilling at all as Janowicz never was a real threat in baseline rallies. But Paire will be. And even yesterday Federer could have easily lost a set, he had set point against him. Back David Goffin to beat Gael Monfils. 2,92 @ marathonbet (8/10). Opposing the same player two times in a row, and the second time at high stakes might be silly. Although Monfils won yesterday 6-4 7-5 I would pick that bet ever again. Goffin is simply one class above Alund and is really able to compete with Monfils. These odds are even more ridiculous than yesterday´s. In my opinion you should better consider if this an even game. Monfils 1,45 favorite? wtf... Back Melanie Oudin (-4,5 games) to beat Irina Khromacheva. 1,85 @ marathonbet (7/10). Oudin is playing here against an 18years-old Russian who has never managed to get to WTA level untl now. Even on ITF level she has a negative record this year. There should be a massive gap between these players and the line seems one or two games too high. Simona Halep vs. Serena Williams under 15,5 games. 3,45 @ pinnacle (4/10). This is indeed a real risky one, but in my eyes worth a little shot. Halep has played a fantastic tournament so far that today will be over for her. Against Williams she cannot play her mix of technical and powerful play as Serena will completely dictate the points and push Halep into the defense. But Halep´s strength is a mixed and balanced play and so she was able to beat JJ, dictate the points when it was necessary and grind them out when propiate. That won´t work against Serena. And there is one more massive disadvantage in this match-up for Halep. The serve. Against "normal" WTA players she is able to break a lot and hold her serve. But Williams is a serving monster that gives only a few opportunies to break through. And she will crush Halep´s weak serve. 6-2 6-1 is possible here.

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Re: May 13 - May 19

Back Benoit Paire to beat Roger Federer. 7,10 @ marathonbet (2/10) Back Benoit Paire (+1,5 sets) to beat Roger Federer. 2,88 @ pinnacle (3/10) Back Benoit Paire (+5 games) to beat Roger Federer. 1,83 @ pinnacle (5/10) Benoit Paire vs. Roger Federer over 20,5 games. 1,94 @ pinnacle (6/10) Okay, first of all, the most likely scenario here is a win of Roger Federer. But nevermind, these odds are too high, especially the lines. Benoit Paire is playing a fantastic tournament, beating Monaco in round 1, struggling against Benneteau and then playing thrilling stuff against Del Potro and crushing Granollers. I wrote something about his style of play yesterday, and I think that he has skills needed to cause trouble to former world no. 1. Especially his very good serve this week and his big groundstrokes makes him nearly unbreakable. So, I cannot understand lines like +5 oder over 20,5. They are far too low. In my opinion there are still questionmarks about Roger Federer´s shape on clay court, although he has beaten the grinders Starace and Simon quite comfortably. But they really lack weapons against such a player as Federer is. Yesterday Federer beat Janowicz, but the games wasn´t that thrilling at all as Janowicz never was a real threat in baseline rallies. But Paire will be. And even yesterday Federer could have easily lost a set, he had set point against him. Back David Goffin to beat Gael Monfils. 2,92 @ marathonbet (8/10). Opposing the same player two times in a row, and the second time at high stakes might be silly. Although Monfils won yesterday 6-4 7-5 I would pick that bet ever again. Goffin is simply one class above Alund and is really able to compete with Monfils. These odds are even more ridiculous than yesterday´s. In my opinion you should better consider if this an even game. Monfils 1,45 favorite? wtf... Back Melanie Oudin (-4,5 games) to beat Irina Khromacheva. 1,85 @ marathonbet (7/10). Oudin is playing here against an 18years-old Russian who has never managed to get to WTA level untl now. Even on ITF level she has a negative record this year. There should be a massive gap between these players and the line seems one or two games too high. Simona Halep vs. Serena Williams under 15,5 games. 3,45 @ pinnacle (4/10). This is indeed a real risky one, but in my eyes worth a little shot. Halep has played a fantastic tournament so far that today will be over for her. Against Williams she cannot play her mix of technical and powerful play as Serena will completely dictate the points and push Halep into the defense. But Halep´s strength is a mixed and balanced play and so she was able to beat JJ, dictate the points when it was necessary and grind them out when propiate. That won´t work against Serena. And there is one more massive disadvantage in this match-up for Halep. The serve. Against "normal" WTA players she is able to break a lot and hold her serve. But Williams is a serving monster that gives only a few opportunies to break through. And she will crush Halep´s weak serve. 6-2 6-1 is possible here.

Nice work! Iv just backed Oudin's game to finish under 21.5 Games!

[Emiliano]

Re: May 13 - May 19 halep/jankovic was the worst ever tennis match, bye bye Berdych performes extremely good, Nadal is in terrible shape, i think berdych to win at least a set is the bet of the day ciao

[Guardiola]

Re: May 13 - May 19

halep/jankovic was the worst ever tennis match, bye bye

You haven´t seen many tennis matches, have you?

[Regnavetto]

Re: May 13 - May 19 Berdych to beat Nadal 5.43 @ Pinnacle (2/10) Over 23.5 games 2.67 @ Pinnacle (6/10) I think it’s the right time to fade Rafa. He really had difficulties with Gulbis’ aggression and power. However I saw improvement in his game and thought that trend could continue against Ferrer. What I thought would result in rhythm, momentum and depth in his strokes, ended to be nothing but a mere scrap and grind to clinch the win against an uninspired Ferrer that had the gun to Nadal’s head once again, but with his Nadal-complex, he couldn’t pull the trigger. En route to the Djokovic match, Berdych didn’t have me impressed at all and because of that, I had picked him to get dismantled a break a set by Nole. For a long time I thought that result was written in stone. However, miracles do exist and Berdo resurrected himself and found some new inspiration after he had broken Djoko, while the world number 1 was serving for the match. He found a way to turn a 2-5 deficit into a 7-5 set win. He went on to stun Djokovic 6-4 in the decider to complete his miracle run. Aggressiveness, big serving, heavy groundstrokes and solidness were keys in that turn around. As soon as Djokovic lost concentration and began to lack some depth in his strokes, Berdych really stepped in the court to push Nole in the defence and get opportunities to finish points quite easily. If Nadal goes on to continue making a lot unforced errors like he has done in the past match he’ll have a tough day. Also what concerns me a lot is his lack of depth in his shots and Berdych is a guy that can feed off short balls and dominate the match, like Gulbis has shown before. If Berdych can show the same factors as I mentioned before on a constant level throughout the match he certainly has a shot to stun another top gun and I’m confident he can at least make it a real match and keep it tight. ML has great value and the over is a must take for me. Be careful with taking game spreads because we might see Berdych clinching a set and getting demolished in a decisive set if Nadal ups his game.

[Torque]

Re: May 13 - May 19 Back Roger Federer to win ATP Internazionali BNL dItalia @ 3.80 >Betfair I'm backing Federer here for the same sorts of reasons that I've backed Azarenka in the Women's tournament, in that I think he will make the final and I think he might be able to threaten Nadal, the short price favourite for the tournament. Federer had a break after Indian Wells, and perhaps understandably has taken some time to get back up to speed and adjust to a new surface, but I think he has looked good so far this week. He beat clay specialist and home player Starace with plenty to spare in his first match, and he completely dominated Simon in his next match. I thought his performance in that match was impressive, particularly as some thought the Frenchman might cause him some problems. Last night against Janowicz, Federer showed all his experience to beat the big Pole in straight sets, and I think it will be a similar story in his semi-final match against Paire. They have met twice before, on hard courts, and Paire has yet to win a set against the Swiss. It's fair to say that Paire is a much improved player, but I think Federer will play the big points better, and that his consistency will see him through to the final. Assuming that Nadal beats Berdych in the other semi-final, Federer will need to beat the Spaniard to take the title. They last met in Indian Wells, when Federer was hampered by a back problem and Nadal was able to win in straight sets. This time, Federer should be in good shape physically, and as Nadal has had some problems against both Gulbis and Ferrer, I don't see why Federer couldn't beat him. There seems to still be an aura surrounding Nadal, and as such I think he has been getting over the line in some matches by reputation alone. Federer should not be affected by this, despite having lost to Nadal on numerous occasions, and that could be important in the title match.

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Re: May 13 - May 19 When backing a player to win a tournament is it possible to bet eachway when they are playing in the quarters/semi's because I could of got Federer at odds of 6 before the Jancowicz match, then the odds get halved if he reaches the final and loses therefore the each way bet wins? Am I correct or incorrect? Thanks!

[CzechPunter]

Re: May 13 - May 19 Well, sometimes you can get an each-way bet even during the event, sometimes you can't. With bigger events, you will probably find a bookie that will offer it. With smaller ones, no such luck usually. And yes, you are right - if he loses in the finals, the each-way part of the bet still wins.

[Banner]

Re: May 13 - May 19

Well' date=' sometimes you can get an each-way bet even during the event, sometimes you can't. With bigger events, you will probably find a bookie that will offer it. With smaller ones, no such luck usually. And yes, you are right - if he loses in the finals, the each-way part of the bet still wins.[/quote'] Thanks for the clarification, Im pretty sure Ladbrokes were accepting each way on Federer before the Jancowicz match at odds of 6! Therefore he would still of got odds of 3 if he loses the final tomorrow!

[CzechPunter]

Re: May 13 - May 19 Just make sure that the each-way conditions are indeed 1/2 odds. Some bookies sometimes go at 1/3 for a place, which is obviously much worse.

[Banner]

Re: May 13 - May 19

Just make sure that the each-way conditions are indeed 1/2 odds. Some bookies sometimes go at 1/3 for a place' date=' which is obviously much worse.[/quote'] Yes thanks! I guess the bookies would actually cut it to 1/3 when the tournaments is part of the way through! Oudin v Elie - Oudin 2-0 - BetVictor @ 1.7 This match features Oudin who is ranked 93rd in the world and Elie who is ranked 358th in the world. Elie is currently playing on the ITF tour where she is playing against very poor opponents. Im not sure she has ever played against anyone in the top 100 on clay before and I expect this to be a real challenge for her. Elie rarely plays outside of America in fact this is the first time in 7 years she has played outside of America on Clay, I think this will make things harder for her as she will have to adapt to different conditions and culture. Elie played a 16 year old in the first round and this was no problem for her however Oudin is of a much much higher quality. Oudin has won 4 of her last 5 matches against much better opponents recording good wins against Scheepers and Hampton whilst losing in the second round in Rome to Cibulkova however should did put in a good performance against the world number 16. In the first qualifying stage Oudin beat Khromacheva 6-1 6-0 this really shows what great form she is really in, as she only dropped one game all match. Elie is of a similar quality to Khromacheva if not just slightly better and she will have to put in a great performance to even win a set in my opinion! If Oudin finds the form she has been showing in recent weeks this will be no problem for her!

[quote]

Re: May 13 - May 19

You haven´t seen many tennis matches' date=' have you?[/quote'] He should stick to football! Halep/Jankovic was brilliant match.

[Regnavetto]

Re: May 13 - May 19 Nadal (-6) to beat Federer 3.87 @ Pinnacle (6/10) It’s been a long time since we had an encounter between Rafa and Fed in final tie. I would love to see an epic match between the two, but I can’t see any other result than an easy win for Rafa. Throughout this week I thought Federer could have a shot at beating Rafa in the final, but yesterdays matches have convinced me that Rafa will win this in a very comfortable fashion. For me it was like night and day watching Nadal playing in the first rounds and the half final against Berdych. In fact, I haven’t seen Nadal playing this well in weeks. Berdych was actually playing quite well if you ask me, but Nadal had an answer for everything T-Bird tried. Rafa was much more solid and his depth in shots was a lot deeper compared to the rest of the week. Federer on the other hand was playing really well but when faced with players that put him more under pressure he started making more mistakes. It started with the Janowicz match but his weaknesses were even more exposed when he faced Benoit Paire. Both players, just starting to develop themselves for the higher rankings, just lack the quality and experience at the moment to really hurt Roger. I just don’t think Federer can play on the level required throughout the whole match to even clinch one set and if Nadal continues to play on the level he had yesterday, this could be a very quick match. The spread has so much value, I can’t resist pouncing on it.

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Re: May 13 - May 19

Yes thanks! I guess the bookies would actually cut it to 1/3 when the tournaments is part of the way through! Oudin v Elie - Oudin 2-0 - BetVictor @ 1.7 This match features Oudin who is ranked 93rd in the world and Elie who is ranked 358th in the world. Elie is currently playing on the ITF tour where she is playing against very poor opponents. Im not sure she has ever played against anyone in the top 100 on clay before and I expect this to be a real challenge for her. Elie rarely plays outside of America in fact this is the first time in 7 years she has played outside of America on Clay, I think this will make things harder for her as she will have to adapt to different conditions and culture. Elie played a 16 year old in the first round and this was no problem for her however Oudin is of a much much higher quality. Oudin has won 4 of her last 5 matches against much better opponents recording good wins against Scheepers and Hampton whilst losing in the second round in Rome to Cibulkova however should did put in a good performance against the world number 16. In the first qualifying stage Oudin beat Khromacheva 6-1 6-0 this really shows what great form she is really in, as she only dropped one game all match. Elie is of a similar quality to Khromacheva if not just slightly better and she will have to put in a great performance to even win a set in my opinion! If Oudin finds the form she has been showing in recent weeks this will be no problem for her!

Easy enough for Oudin!

[Guardiola]

Re: May 13 - May 19

Back Benoit Paire to beat Roger Federer. 7,10 @ marathonbet (2/10) Back Benoit Paire (+1,5 sets) to beat Roger Federer. 2,88 @ pinnacle (3/10) Back Benoit Paire (+5 games) to beat Roger Federer. 1,83 @ pinnacle (5/10) Benoit Paire vs. Roger Federer over 20,5 games. 1,94 @ pinnacle (6/10) Okay, first of all, the most likely scenario here is a win of Roger Federer. But nevermind, these odds are too high, especially the lines. Benoit Paire is playing a fantastic tournament, beating Monaco in round 1, struggling against Benneteau and then playing thrilling stuff against Del Potro and crushing Granollers. I wrote something about his style of play yesterday, and I think that he has skills needed to cause trouble to former world no. 1. Especially his very good serve this week and his big groundstrokes makes him nearly unbreakable. So, I cannot understand lines like +5 oder over 20,5. They are far too low. In my opinion there are still questionmarks about Roger Federer´s shape on clay court, although he has beaten the grinders Starace and Simon quite comfortably. But they really lack weapons against such a player as Federer is. Yesterday Federer beat Janowicz, but the games wasn´t that thrilling at all as Janowicz never was a real threat in baseline rallies. But Paire will be. And even yesterday Federer could have easily lost a set, he had set point against him. Back David Goffin to beat Gael Monfils. 2,92 @ marathonbet (8/10). Opposing the same player two times in a row, and the second time at high stakes might be silly. Although Monfils won yesterday 6-4 7-5 I would pick that bet ever again. Goffin is simply one class above Alund and is really able to compete with Monfils. These odds are even more ridiculous than yesterday´s. In my opinion you should better consider if this an even game. Monfils 1,45 favorite? wtf... Back Melanie Oudin (-4,5 games) to beat Irina Khromacheva. 1,85 @ marathonbet (7/10). Oudin is playing here against an 18years-old Russian who has never managed to get to WTA level untl now. Even on ITF level she has a negative record this year. There should be a massive gap between these players and the line seems one or two games too high. Simona Halep vs. Serena Williams under 15,5 games. 3,45 @ pinnacle (4/10). This is indeed a real risky one, but in my eyes worth a little shot. Halep has played a fantastic tournament so far that today will be over for her. Against Williams she cannot play her mix of technical and powerful play as Serena will completely dictate the points and push Halep into the defense. But Halep´s strength is a mixed and balanced play and so she was able to beat JJ, dictate the points when it was necessary and grind them out when propiate. That won´t work against Serena. And there is one more massive disadvantage in this match-up for Halep. The serve. Against "normal" WTA players she is able to break a lot and hold her serve. But Williams is a serving monster that gives only a few opportunies to break through. And she will crush Halep´s weak serve. 6-2 6-1 is possible here.

Federer d. Paire 7-6 6-4 Monfils d. Goffin 5-7 6-1 7-5 Oudin d. Khromacheva 6-1 6-0 Williams d. Halep 6-3 6-0 + 12 units. Nice end of the week. A pity that Goffin couldn´t win. That pick had definitively value, too.