May 13 - May 19

[CzechPunter]

Rome :ok

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Re: May 13 - May 19 I backed Gulbis to win 2-0 last night on BET365 at 1.57! Best you can get him at is 1.44 now. I would of tipped at 1.57

[Regnavetto]

Re: May 13 - May 19 Melzer (+3.5g) to beat Anderson 2.02 @ Pinnacle (6/10) Great to see that big guy Anderson is being overrated in his encounter with Melzer. Anderson has done a good job lately on his least favourite surface. He has impressed me against both Monaco and Berdych. In contrast to those results stand the bad results in the last two tournaments. Despite the difference in form and results, I’m opposing the South-African in this one. Conditions are a lot slower in Rome in comparison with Madrid and that should favour the Austrian player. Anderson’s bombs won’t punch through as much as in Spain and that will give Melzer a lot more time to set up his shots and use his lefty forehand to get the tall guy moving around court, where he is most vulnerable. Although Anderson is the obvious favourite, I think he’s overrated in the current situation. Melzer certainly has the game and claycourt experience to make life difficult for Kevin today. I’m not sure who will win to be honest, but certainly Melzer has a lot more chances than the odds suggest.

[WWWYKI!]

Re: May 13 - May 19 Del Potro was in the 30s for Rome yesterday,Surprised to see the price has dropped so much.

[WinningTipster]

Re: May 6 - May 12 1 PICK FOR WTA ROME: STOSUR-HSIEH 2:0 IN SETS @ 1.51 on pinnaclesports Stosur is a former French Open champion and is a great clay court player. Hsieh does not play a lot on clay and it is really her worst surface.

[homunculus]

Re: May 6 - May 12

1 PICK FOR WTA ROME: STOSUR-HSIEH 2:0 IN SETS @ 1.51 on pinnaclesports Stosur is a former French Open champion and is a great clay court player. Hsieh does not play a lot on clay and it is really her worst surface.

With what Sam delivered in Madrid I would be really carefull to back her with real money. She is big NO NO for me.

[homunculus]

Re: May 6 - May 12 Seppi to bt Clown-Foggy @2.01 Pinacle (3/10) Fognini, after his good run in Monte Carlo, finds himself again in his infamous clown mode. Lost to Carreno-Busta in Portugal (which is not that big disaster), and diabolicaly fukked up his match vs Youzhny in Madrid (which must have made deep impact into his mental state). He was 5-4 up in the decider and served for the match, having 3 matchpoints at 40-0. Now guess what happened next - LOL. This clown took it to tie-break and lost. I think that his compatriot Seppi is going to crush him today.

[homunculus]

Re: May 6 - May 12 Oudin to bt Makarova @4.72 Pinnacle (2/10) Makarova not big claycourter, Oudin leads H2H 1-0 (did beat her last year on Grass in Birmingham), and makarova apparently having some sort of health problem with her left (dominant) arm after her match vs Errani last week.

[jebediah]

Re: May 13 - May 19 Kohlschreiber - Raonic Bwin(2.3/1.45) Rome is one of the last major tournament before Rolland-Garros and Raonic want a quick win to reasure himself, against an aging Kohlschreiber, who has already played a lot

[petszata]

Re: May 13 - May 19 I think somebody out of top 4 will in the tournament. djokovic problems last game again Dimitrov will not allow him to make 1/2 here.Nadal will face djokovic 1/4 fnal but I don't think he will gonna Win second masters in two weeks just before Roland Garros.i like the odds for del potro .i will try him for the winner.

[lakeside]

Re: May 6 - May 12

Seppi to bt Clown-Foggy @2.01 Pinacle (3/10) Fognini, after his good run in Monte Carlo, finds himself again in his infamous clown mode. Lost to Carreno-Busta in Portugal (which is not that big disaster), and diabolicaly fukked up his match vs Youzhny in Madrid (which must have made deep impact into his mental state). He was 5-4 up in the decider and served for the match, having 3 matchpoints at 40-0. Now guess what happened next - LOL. This clown took it to tie-break and lost. I think that his compatriot Seppi is going to crush him today.

I had a rare massive bet on Seppi today and seemed pretty confident till I read your post, then the real fear set in. The sudden realization that I could lose my money having read your comments about Fognini. I do not know how it happens, but it always happens to me with alarming constitency. It is not your fault anyway. However you should not have mouthed him off! lol!!!!

[homunculus]

Re: May 6 - May 12

I had a rare massive bet on Seppi today and seemed pretty confident till I read your post' date=' then the real fear set in. The sudden realization that I could lose my money having read your comments about Fognini. I do not know how it happens, but it always happens to me with alarming constitency. It is not your fault anyway. However you should not have mouthed him off! lol!!!![/quote'] Did not come through - looks like Seppi is even bigger clown than Foggy. It was marked 3/10 so I am really not the one to blame, especially when all I wrote is true. I hope you took the Oudin > Makarova bet as well. Not bad start of the week for me, +4.4u

[InfectedBoy]

Re: May 6 - May 12

1 PICK FOR WTA ROME: STOSUR-HSIEH 2:0 IN SETS @ 1.51 on pinnaclesports Stosur is a former French Open champion and is a great clay court player. Hsieh does not play a lot on clay and it is really her worst surface.

When did she win French Open?:eek

[CzechPunter]

Re: May 13 - May 19 Back Who Will Go the Furthest - Andy Murray (vs. Roger Federer) for a 2/10 stake at 2.25 with Bet365 One outright for me here, as I feel that the odds are just a bit off. Roger Federer hasn't done that much in recent months and he probably knows that these clay court events are out of his range already, so motivation might be quite low. Murray isn't that great either, but at least he is getting some wins under his belt these days - and the fairly soft draw might act as a solid mental boost. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/atp-rome-betting-andy-murray-might-be-able-to-go-quite-far-in-rome-this-time-around-20130513

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Re: May 13 - May 19 Czech any idea of a bookie that offer big game Handicaps? I know Paddy Power do but not all the time. For example Anderson +7.5 Games v Cilic! Thanks!

[CzechPunter]

Re: May 13 - May 19 Paddy Power are the only ones who offer huge ones, but Pinnacle offer at least some range. Nobody else I believe.

[Banner]

Re: May 13 - May 19

Paddy Power are the only ones who offer huge ones' date=' but Pinnacle offer at least some range. Nobody else I believe.[/quote'] Yep thats what I thought! Thanks! I tip on another site and I have found doubles and trebles have bee very successful with the + handicap of like 6.5. Iv now won 6/7 but when Paddy Power are not offering the odds its hard to do :D

[homunculus]

Re: May 13 - May 19 I decided to massage Wawrinka in this tournament. His match vs Berlocq is his 11-th match within last 13 days, and though Wawa is not super fat, he is not that big athlete to endure endlessly. So let's start with Berlocq, who is quite good on clay: Berlocq to bt Wawrinka @3.0 Pinnacle (2/10) adding Berlocq +1.5 set > Wawrinka @1.813 Pinnacle (5/10)

[CzechPunter]

Re: May 13 - May 19 Back Christina McHale to beat Karin Knapp for a 2/10 stake at 1.80 with Pinnacle Knapp had to play quite a few matches last week in Trnava, eventually falling in the finals, and I am just wondering about her chances in this one. Christina McHale seems to be competing well at the moment and she should certainly be fully ready for this one, so I would probably give her a slightly better chance to win than the bookies seem to be suggesting. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/mchale-vs-knapp-betting-christina-mchale-to-defeat-karin-knapp-in-rome-20130514 Back Carlos Berlocq to beat Stanislas Wawrinka for a 2/10 stake at 3.07 with Pinnacle Wawrinka deserves plenty of credit for his incredible run, but he knows that this is an incredibly tough draw once again and I just cannot see him going far this week, especially since this match comes only two days after his loss to Nadal. Moreover, the Argentinian is one of those guys that will make you run, which is the last thing that Wawrinka wants right now. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/berlocq-vs-wawrinka-betting-carlos-berlocq-looks-value-against-the-tired-swiss-number-two-20130514

[Torque]

Re: May 13 - May 19 Back Tomas Berdych to win ATP Internazionali BNL dItalia @ 60.00 >Betfair I think Berdych did quite well last week in Madrid, and that he might be worth following again in Rome. His first match is against Istomin, and as the better clay court player he will expect to come through to set up a possible meeting with Cilic. His record against Cilic on clay is good, and as Cilic has looked a little off his game in recent weeks I think Berdych should be able to reach the quarter-final. From there, he might need to beat Djokovic and Nadal to make the final, and as was the case last week I don't think it's beyond Berdych to win those matches if he plays his best tennis. If he can reach the final, he would be likely to play Federer or Murray. Federer looks short of match practice on clay, and Murray looks short of form at the moment. Berdych really should have made the final in Madrid, so hopefully he will be motivated to go on another run in the Italian capital.

[KMD21]

Re: May 13 - May 19 ivanovic vs radwanska the odds on radwanski were about 5,5 on bet365, she is overall a better player, and as of right now she is leading 1-0. What would be the reason? I didn't bet as it was too suspect.

[CzechPunter]

Re: May 13 - May 19 I think that you are mistaking Agnieszka Radwanska for Urszula Radwanska mate.

[homunculus]

Re: May 13 - May 19 Halep to take a set off A.Radwanska @Pinnacle 2.00 (5/10) Halep playing great at the moment, while A.Rad was not convincing at all in Madrid, and her results in Rome last two years are poor, too (she lost her first match vs Vesnina in 2011 and Cetkovska in 2012). I don't say Halep is going to win this, but IMO A.Rad is going to tank a set.

[KMD21]

Re: May 13 - May 19 CzechPunter, thanks for clearing it up. PS. I like this small tournaments before the big play offs, because all the top players leave early and lose on purpose. Just like Haas lost to Yuzhni today or Wozniacki.

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Re: May 13 - May 19

CzechPunter, thanks for clearing it up. PS. I like this small tournaments before the big play offs, because all the top players leave early and lose on purpose. Just like Haas lost to Yuzhni today or Wozniacki.

I dont think they lose on purpose to be honest...

[KMD21]

Re: May 13 - May 19 Well maybe not on purpose, but they don't try. The winnings are small, so they save up the energy for the grand slam.

[CzechPunter]

Re: May 13 - May 19

Well maybe not on purpose' date=' but they don't try. The winnings are small, so they save up the energy for the grand slam.[/quote'] That doesn't make much sense, does it? First of all, Rome is not a "small" event by any means, as there is 1000 ranking points on offer for the winner (and plenty of cash). Just look back at the recent years - did "all the top players leave early"? I don't think so. 2012 had Djokovic, Nadal, Federer, and Ferrer in the semis. 2011 had Djokovic, Nadal, Murray, and Gasquet in the semis. What you say might apply to events like Nice, which is next week, but to say that someone loses on purpose in Masters is just ridiculous. You have mentioned Haas. Well, he is not that great on clay and he has never done well in Rome (0-5 in his last five Rome appearances I believe).

[Torque]

Re: May 13 - May 19 Back David Ferrer to win ATP Internazionali BNL dItalia @ 55.00 Betfair Ferrer seems to have played himself back into some form in the last couple of weeks, making the final in Oeiras and getting close to beating Nadal in Madrid, and so I think he can have a good week in Rome. He will play Verdasco in his first match, and although the h2h is very close, I think Ferrer should make the next round as Verdasco has struggled to find his best tennis recently. Ferrer might play Kohlschreiber for a place in the quarter-finals, and although the German is in good form, Ferrer has done well against him in the past and should find a way to progress. Nadal will probably be the player standing between Ferrer and the last four, and as Ferrer nearly beat him last week he should feel that he would have a good chance if they play each other again this week. If Ferrer can find a way to make the semi-final he could play Djokovic, and as he has a good record against the Serb on clay he might be able to reach the final. The top seeds in the other half of the draw are Federer and Murray, two players who have made slow starts to the clay court season. Ferrer has a good record against Murray on clay, and although Ferrer's record against Federer is poor, the Swiss doesn't seem to be in the best of form at the moment. If this is the tournament where Ferrer returns to his best form, then I'm happy to be on him at this price. Back Jo-Wilfried Tsonga to win ATP Internazionali BNL dItalia @ 50.00 >Betfair In the bottom half of the draw in Rome, I think there could be some value in backing Tsonga to do well. His form so far this season on clay has been good, with only tight losses to Nadal in Monte-Carlo and Wawrinka in Madrid. He has a potentially tricky first match here against Janowicz, but he should be able to get through as he is in better form on clay than the Pole. He would then face compatriot Gasquet, in what would probably be a close match. Tsonga won in their most recent meeting at the Australian Open, and I think he is more consistent than Gasquet at the moment. Federer and Murray would be likely quarter-final and semi-final opponents for Tsonga, but I think they are both worth opposing in this tournament. Djokovic is seeded to make the final from the top half of the draw, and whilst Tsonga's record against him isn't great, there have been a few close matches, including a five set win for Djokovic on the clay at Roland Garros. It would be a tall ask, but if Tsonga can bring his best tennis into this week then he might be able to cause one or two surprises. Back Li Na to win WTA Internazionali BNL dItalia @ 9.00 >Betfair I'm not exactly sure what happened to Li Na last week in Madrid, where she lost tamely to Keys, but besides that match she has had a solid season. I think she will be looking for a run of matches ahead of the French Open, and she should be able to at least make the semi-finals in Rome. She will need to beat her compatriot Zheng Jie in her first match, and she should be confident of doing so as she beat her the last time they played and Zheng Jie has had an inconsistent season so far. She might then play Jankovic for a place in the quarter-final, and in these conditions I think she could edge a potentially close match. In the last eight, Li Na might face Vinci, who would have home advantage but has never beaten her before. In addition, Vinci's level seems to have dropped in the last few weeks, and so I think Li Na should be able to progress to the last four and a possible match against Serena Williams. Recent meetings between the two have been quite close, and although Williams would be expected to win, a motivated Li Na playing at the top of her game could beat her and make the final. Sharapova should make the final from the other half of the draw, and as the two-time defending champion she would undoubtedly provide a stern test, but Li Na has beaten her before on clay and is capable of doing so again, especially if the wind gets up in Rome and puts Sharapova off her serve.

[homunculus]

Re: May 13 - May 19 edit:

Berlocq to bt Wawrinka @3.0 Pinnacle (2/10) LOSS Berlocq +1.5 set > Wawrinka @1.813 Pinnacle (5/10) :ok Halep to take a set off A.Radwanska @Pinnacle 2.00 (5/10) :ok

forgot to add summary for tuesday: +7.0 units, this gets me to +11.4u for the week leaving Wawrinka alone today - Dolgopolov is a prick in Rome conditions (I laughed alot last year when he was bagelised by Verdasco in round 1 in severe windy conditions, and because he was just unable to toss the ball to serve, he retired after the 1st set. LOL.), and his win over Viola was not truly convincing. He might defeat wawa, but personally I think he will not. However, I take Kohlschreiber -2 games > Ramos @2.03 Pinnacle (2/10) Kohli's win over Raonic was something to note. He is good claycourter, and after having lost the final in his favourite tournament in Munich, he is on a mission here in Rome to get some points back. Simon to bt Youzhny @2.11 Pinnacle (3/10) Youzhny's win ove Almagro was impressive, but Mugro plyead really bad. The same was true with Haas. IMO Youzhny is masively overrated after those wins, but Simon is the guy that just returns everything back. He will let Youzhny run all over the place and Youzhny will eventually make the error. Youzhny is no more the guy that played US Open semifinal, and Gilles is going to remind him of this.

[CzechPunter]

Re: May 13 - May 19 Back Jeremy Chardy to beat Kei Nishikori for a 2/10 stake at 3.09 with Pinnacle Kei Nishikori had to receive some medical attention in the second set against Paolo Lorenzi and his movement on clay still remains a bit suspect in general, so I wouldn't be surprised by seeing Chardy upsetting him today. The Frenchman is a solid clay courter by all kinds of standards and he has beaten Nishikori on clay before, so this price looks worth taking to me. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/chardy-vs-nishikori-betting-jeremy-chardy-looks-set-to-challenge-kei-nishikori-in-rome-20130515 Back Aleksandr Dolgopolov to beat Stanislas Wawrinka for a 2/10 stake at 2.43 with Pinnacle It is fair to say that Wawrinka played a fairly OK match yesterday, but I nevertheless fancy Dolgopolov to stop him today at this price. His win over Viola should not be overestimated, but it shows that he seems to be fully fit and focused on the task at hand. For me, this is a 50/50 match-up in all fairness, so anything above evens should be value. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/dolgopolov-vs-wawrinka-betting-aleksandr-dolgopolov-to-stop-wawrinka-s-glorious-run-20130515