Italian Serie A - 7th-8th May

[value4sports]

Here are my comments for the upcoming midweek fixtures in Serie A. I look at recent and relevant games to find value bets. Pescara vs Milan - No team should be 23-1 in a two horse race, at the end of the season and when that team is playing at home. Sure Milan will probably win, but there must be value on the Asians. Pescara +2.25 pays 1.93. The Roma (vs Cheivo) and Bologna (vs Napoli) games look to be mis priced in the under 2.5 market. This has occurred in 53% and 63% of respective, similar games featuring these teams. The odds should be 1.88 and 1.60, respectively, however 2.9 and 2.40 respectively are widely available. Inter also look good value to beat Lazio, i price the odds at 2.30, but you can get 2.85. Good Luck everyone.

[SALVO7ITALY]

Re: Italian Serie A - 7th-8th May Roma v Chievo Chievo manager Corini has been quite open about he is going into the game to keep it tight. He has also mentioned the 5 man defense worked well in the first game vs Roma where they won 1-0 and also in the game against Lazio in Rome where they also won 1-0. I'm not going to be brave enough to back a Chievo results because there missing 2 key strikers Paloschi and Pellisier but I'm willing to back the unders market. Under 2.5 @ 2.62 - 5 points

[vicsuna]

Re: Italian Serie A - 7th-8th May great analysis I also tried it based on the falling average goals per game after Zeman left Roma. This was the best game for under from the games left for Roma, at home against Napoli is another one, but I can see at least 2 goals scored there. Tricky.

[clubgowi]

Re: Italian Serie A - 7th-8th May Palermo v Udinese Greatly improved form from Palermo, they did us a (half) favour at Juventus on Sunday, ahead of which I wrote: "I have to take a little on Palermo, after the dramatic events of yesterday, I have no strength left to resist! Juve have all but won the Scudetto and a point today will see the celebrations begin, they can afford to be magnanimous and step off the gas a little against a desperate Palermo team. The visitors are likely to drop back into the relegation zone if they fail to get something and have shown enough recently to make that far from a futile hope. They are unbeaten in five, including wins over Inter, Roma and Sampdoria and will be looking at recent home games that the champions have played against fellow strugglers (1-1 Genoa, 2-1 Pescara) , ignoring the 3-0 defeat of Siena and feel they can keep this similarly close." The 1-0 defeat saw them fall back into the bottom three and with games fast running out, they need to win, win , win as they say on the Palermo website this morning. The squad is in decent shape, midfielder Massimi Donati (26 appearances - 0 goals - 0 assists) is suspended, but centre back Andrea Mantovani makes a long awaited return from injury, along with right back Michel Morganella (27-0-2), who sat out the game in Turin with a ban. Udinese are 6-3-1 since a loss at Genoa in mid February, losing only to Catania, but have met a series of low level / out of sorts / unmotivated opponents in that sequence and they will face more of a battle this evening. They are without central defenders Danilo (30-2-1 ... last game he missed was that loss at Genoa) and Maurizio Domizzi (28-1-4 .... last he sat out was the defeat at Catania), who are both suspended, to be without the pair at the same time will be very tough to overcome. There is also talk of Antonio Di Natale (30-20-3) being in need of a rest and he seems unlikely to play three games inside eight days and we might see more of him in Udinese's final home game of the season on Sunday. Palermo led for almost an hour in the reverse fixture, before conceding a last minute equaliser and can go one better tonight and keep survival hopes alive, failure to claim maximum points will make things very difficult with the two teams directly above them in the table already having a 3 points + advantage and meeting each other in Turin this evening. Palermo -0.5 ball @ 2.13 Palermo: Benussi, Brichetto, Sorrentino, Aronica, Dossena, Garcia, Mantovani, Morganella, Munoz, Nelson, Von Bergen, Arevalo Rios, Anselmo, Barreto, Faurlin, Formica, Ilicic, Kurtic, Viola,Boselli, Dybala, Fabbrini, Hernandez, Miccoli, Sperduti. Udinese: Brkic, Padelli, Pawlowski, Angella, Basta, Benatia, Heurtaux, Gabriel Silva, Pasquale, Siku, Allan, Badu, Campos Toro, Faraoni, Merkel, Pereyra, Rodriguez, Di Natale, Maicosuel, Muriel, Ranegie, Zielinski.

[TomDickHarry]

Re: Italian Serie A - 7th-8th May Any thoughts on Atalanta V Juventus tonight? I threw Juventus into an accumulator with Real Madrid tonight and Bayern/ Dortmund Saturday. Kind of sorry I went with Juve now as they will most likey field a weaker team and with Atalanta desperate for a safety point a draw is likely.

[anderson4eva]

Re: Italian Serie A - 7th-8th May Hi Tom you threw Juvetus in an accumulator with Real M and you chose Bayern and BD to win at the weekend>?

[anderson4eva]

Re: Italian Serie A - 7th-8th May Tom that is a little Silly seeing as Bayern M have already wrapped up the league and Borrusia have wrapped up 2nd place where as there opponents wolfsburg have everthing to play for. You shudnt go for outright wins thats just my opinion stick to goals etc

[TomDickHarry]

Re: Italian Serie A - 7th-8th May I know I know amateur hour is here. I usually stick with goals but couldnt resist a small punt on those 4 to win.

[vicsuna]

Re: Italian Serie A - 7th-8th May wtf a draw odds between Torino and Genoa are 7/10 :eek Torino lost 5 out of the last 6 games, but against the 5 top teams in Serie A. Genoa are in good form unbeaten in last 4, 2 consecutive wins(last season they made max 2 consecutive wins as well and only never 2 away wins in a row). Torino hasn't lost a game so far against the bottom 7 teams and have no injury problems. Genoa on the other hand have doubtful Luca Antonelli(defender-31 games-1 goal-5assists) and Juraj Kucka(midfielder-31 games-3 goals- 3assists). head-to-head stats: at home Torino has won 5, 3 draws and 1 loss against Genoa. The game is really vital for both camps and I expect some goals, not a 0:0 results like their first game. I will see what are the squads and after that bet for Torino win at 9/4. Good luck to everyone.

[vicsuna]

Re: Italian Serie A - 7th-8th May I think that the odds for a draw between Sampdoria and Catania are great value @ 11/5 Sampdoria has had only 2 home draws from 17 games( 7w and 8l). They are without a win in their last 8 Serie A games. Catania are without their main goalkeeper, and the defenders Pablo Alvarez(27 games) and Giuseppe Bellusci(24 games). Catania don't have a win this season without Alvarez and are well-known for their miserable away form(without a win in last 4). Last year Catania had more than 50% draws in their away games. This game is more important for Sampdoria that are close to relegation and I think it can easily end up a draw that will secure Sampdoria's place and put Catania's Europe hopes to an end.

[vicsuna]

Re: Italian Serie A - 7th-8th May wOw Torino - Genoa ended up 0:0, but I didn't try it because for Genoa were playing both Antonelli and Kucka Sampdoria-Catania was perfect 1:1 draw :) and that was the 4th draw in the last 6 matches for Catania - they are out of Europe for sure with Inter. Udinese won even though Di Natale missed a penalty. When the odds come for their game against Atalanta I will immediately back them for a 3rd weekend because this game is a must win if they want to play in Europa League. They have 60 pts+not so good goal difference and play away against Inter in the last round, Roma(58pts) has a home game against Napoli and away game against AC Milan - no chance to win them both imo, but Lazio that also has 58pts has a chance if they win at home against Sampdoria this weekend and away against Cagliari in the last round(both teams from bottom of the table).