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Serie A > 4th - 5th May


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[TABLE=class: couponTable, width: 617] [TR] [TH=class: firstColumn]Saturday 4 May 2013[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center]maximize.gif[/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Chievo v Cagliari (17:00 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.65[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.42[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]4.15[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]103.15 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center]maximize.gif[/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Fiorentina v AS Roma (19:45 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.08[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.65[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.85[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]101.45 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR] [TH] [/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn]Sunday 5 May 2013[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center]maximize.gif[/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Udinese v Sampdoria (11:30 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.78[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.6[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]5.7[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]101.50 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center]maximize.gif[/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]AC Milan v Torino (14:00 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.39[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]4.9[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]11[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]101.44 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center]maximize.gif[/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Catania v Siena (14:00 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.22[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.45[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.65[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]101.43 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center]maximize.gif[/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Genoa v Pescara (14:00 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.35[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]5[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]10[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]104.07 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center]maximize.gif[/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Juventus v Palermo (14:00 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.54[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.9[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]9.2[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]101.45 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center]maximize.gif[/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Lazio v Bologna (14:00 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.78[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.65[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]5.8[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]100.82 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center]maximize.gif[/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Parma v Atalanta (14:00 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.74[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.2[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]4.75[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]103.00 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center]maximize.gif[/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Napoli v Internazionale (19:45 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.61[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]4.1[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]6.7[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]101.43 %[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

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Re: Serie A > 4th - 5th May Hi everyone, the price of the odds beeing so low for the draw is quite simple...They will draw. Because Genoa, Palermo and Siena still have a chance to make it, by drawing and earning a point each, these teams should avoid any sort of chance of risking relegation. It's extremely probable they will draw with unders. I suggest everyone to heavily bet on: GENOA-PESCARA - Genoa to win and although this is not the place to post Italian second division, Play Verona to win against Pro Vercelli. The price combining the two teams is around 1.55 (totosi). But it's really really opportune to play it immediately as they will drop. Both Genoa & Verona are playing against 2 already relegated teams. Genoa, to avoid relegation must win at all costs, while Verona must continue to win hoping that Empoli will sooner or later mess up. This because, in Italian serie B, if there is a 10 point difference between the 3rd and the 4th team, playoffs will be cancelled and the first 3 go into Serie A. The difference between Verona and Empoli, (3rd & 4th.), is of nine points. Now because Empoli have a hard game against Vicenza, Verona is going to do everything to win against this relegated team and try to increase the point margin.

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Re: Serie A > 4th - 5th May Hi Guys, What about Juve to win against Palermo at home?, if they win they are the Champs ( not that it's not gonna happen if they won't win ) But I think they want to end it now and celebrate it at their own stadium. 1.50 is a good price I think, that are your opinions?

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Re: Serie A > 4th - 5th May

Hi Guys, What about Juve to win against Palermo at home?, if they win they are the Champs ( not that it's not gonna happen if they won't win ) But I think they want to end it now and celebrate it at their own stadium. 1.50 is a good price I think, that are your opinions?
Maybe so but Juve only need 1 point now to seal it and Parlemo are on the brink of going down and fighting to stay up. Watching Torino-Juve last week I was really frustrated all game by them playing chess with a team they could have just overwhelmed. This dance went on for 80 mins and then hallelujah Vidal smacks one in!!! I was happy just to get my stake back - was on Juve -1 AH @ 2.05 - then as if just for me Marchisio thunders one in from close range. Was thinking of backing Juve this week but can't bear to watch that crap again.
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Re: Serie A > 4th - 5th May One bet I do like is Napoli to beat Inter on some sort of handicap. Napoli is on a winning run while Inter is on a losing one with their problems well documented. Motivation factor big for Napoli who want to keep Milan away from automatic CL spot and would like to beat a "big team" like Inter infront of their fans. Also in contrast I feel Inter would rather not qualify for the Europa league as it would be a burden. This however is debateable. Any thoughts from the Serie A regulars would be much appreciated Thanks

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Re: Serie A > 4th - 5th May

Maybe so but Juve only need 1 point now to seal it and Parlemo are on the brink of going down and fighting to stay up. Watching Torino-Juve last week I was really frustrated all game by them playing chess with a team they could have just overwhelmed. This dance went on for 80 mins and then hallelujah Vidal smacks one in!!! I was happy just to get my stake back - was on Juve -1 AH @ 2.05 - then as if just for me Marchisio thunders one in from close range. Was thinking of backing Juve this week but can't bear to watch that crap again.
Good point. Since 1 point will be enough for Juve I don't see them risking too much in the last minutes if let's say the score is level. To be on a safer side I would go with Both to Score, since the draw is most likely outcome here.
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Re: Serie A > 4th - 5th May

Hi Guys, What about Juve to win against Palermo at home?, if they win they are the Champs ( not that it's not gonna happen if they won't win ) But I think they want to end it now and celebrate it at their own stadium. 1.50 is a good price I think, that are your opinions?
Right midtfielder Morganella (27 matches) and topcorer Iličić (29 matches - 10 goals) are both absent for Palermo. Juve could field their best eleven. I can't see why Juve would be happy with a draw. Palermo would probably try to keep the one point they start the match with and Juventus will push for the win in front of their own fans. Juve also won the three last matches against Palermo without conceding a single goal.
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Re: Serie A > 4th - 5th May

Good point. Since 1 point will be enough for Juve I don't see them risking too much in the last minutes if let's say the score is level. To be on a safer side I would go with Both to Score' date=' since the draw is most likely outcome here.[/quote'] But Mustafa, why would BTTS be a "safer" option?! Juventus have the best defense and the highest number of clean sheet in Serie A, while Palermo, despite their good form lately, have one of the worst attacks. I am not saying Juve will necessarily win this, but I don't see any safety in the BTTS market, and in fact, if we trust stats, this shouldn't be a wise choice. Anyway, as I said, Palermo are on a great run lately. But I don't remember Juve being given 1.50 at home against a side below top 6. Usually they would get such price (even smaller) against teams like Roma and Lazio.
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Re: Serie A > 4th - 5th May

But Mustafa' date=' why would BTTS be a "safer" option?! Juventus have the best defense and the highest number of clean sheet in Serie A, while Palermo, despite their good form lately, have one of the worst attacks. I am not saying Juve will necessarily win this, but I don't see any safety in the BTTS market, and in fact, if we trust stats, this shouldn't be a wise choice. Anyway, as I said, Palermo are on a great run lately. But I don't remember Juve being given 1.50 at home against a side below top 6. Usually they would get such price (even smaller) against teams like Roma and Lazio.[/quote'] But teams fighting against relegation are unpredictable.
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Re: Serie A > 4th - 5th May

I don't think "safer" and "unpredictable"' date=' together are a valuable argument. :)[/quote'] In the last 4 Juventus home games against Palermo, Juventus won only the last one, while Palermo beat them in the remaining 3.
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Re: Serie A > 4th - 5th May The safe bet in my opinion in Italy this week is again to back Udinese to win Udinese vs Sampdoria, Udinese @ 8/13 Udinese have the second best home defense in Serie A, unbeaten in their last 16 games and winning their last 4 games in Serie A. Their chances for Europa league spot dramatically improved after the win against Cagliari last round and they are just one point behind Roma, but Roma have in the last 4 games away games against AC Milan and Fiorentina, and home game against Napoli. Udinese has tough away games against Palermo and Inter and must win home games against 14th Atalanta and 15th Sampdoria. Sampdoria are without a win in last 7 Serie A games and last 7 away games, drawing the last 3 against teams from the bottom of the table. They are safely 6 points above the relegation battle with the best goal difference in the bottom of the table. Di Natale is doubtful for the game, which is the only risk I see in this game. He is 35 after all and still the goalscorer of Udinese with 18 goals, he played in the last 2 games and they will probably rest him, but if Udinese are not winning at half time he is probably going to come in the second half.

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Re: Serie A > 4th - 5th May

Good point. Since 1 point will be enough for Juve I don't see them risking too much in the last minutes if let's say the score is level. To be on a safer side I would go with Both to Score' date=' since the draw is most likely outcome here.[/quote'] Hey mate just a heads up for you before you take this bet. I've been reading the stats posts and understand your point. Personally I don't place great weight on history but rather how teams are playing in the moment. I want to let you know that the "joke" or "chat" in the Italian football press is that Juve will never concede another goal. The reason for this is that since they have been playing with Vucinic upfront as a lone striker - the last 3 games - they have kept clean sheets vs Lazio, Milan and Torino. The reason for this is that the formation has gone to 3-6-1. The six midfielders smother other teams out of the contest and it is very hard to play against as they are also quality guys (Leichsteiner, Vidal, Pirlo, Pogba, Asamoah and Marchisio all on at once). So Mustafa you have to ask if we assume Lazio and Milan are better quality than Parlemo and failed to score, is Palermo to score really a safe bet? The best chance I think of Palermo scoring is if the old wolf Miccoli whips something up to hurt his old team. But overall I can see chances for Palermo being few and far between.
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Re: Serie A > 4th - 5th May

Nothing actually. End of the season in Italy and both would be satisfied with a draw. It's quite typical Italian football to be honest :) The tricky part is that the draw is not 100 % guaranteed like to odds "suggest".
The only time a draw is more likely than a win, is if neither team wants to score at all. Then 0-0 assures a draw. Otherwise, if it's likely that one goal will be scored, then why is the second goal more likely to come from the trailing team than the leading team??
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Re: Serie A > 4th - 5th May Napoli has given up on trying to snatch the Serie A title from Juventus trailing from an 11-point lead. They are now poised to be Serie A's #2 ranked team just as long as they be consistent with only a few games left, their 3-0 win over Pescara assured that. Inter Milan is still in the hunt to 'up' their ranking in Italy's table. Their 0-1 loss to Palermo was a set-back and playing without Javier Zanetti is a big hurdle. Then, since Sneijder transfered to Galatasaray disaster slowly shown up. My pick : Under 3 @ 1.87 - bet365

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Re: Serie A > 4th - 5th May Ill go for Udinese asian-1 at 2.00 against Sampdoria. Udinese are undefeated in 16 home games and have kept a cleen sheet in the last 5/7 games. Udinese is going for Europe and have 4 wins in a row, and no vital injuries, while Sampdoria is really struggling in the defence with Gastadello, Palombo and Costa out. I think Udinese asian-1 at 2.00 is value.

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Re: Serie A > 4th - 5th May ► 19:00 4 May 2013, Saturday - Italy A ► CHIEVO - CAGLIARI ► Tip: Chievo @ 2.80 WilliamHill TODAY to stay in the match of the 35th round of the championship in Italy, which will compete Chievo and Cagliari. Clubs dug in the middle of the standings and critical tasks, such as permanence in top elite and the European Cups, not solve. Remind that in the Serie A to remain to the end only 4 games. Cagliari firmly entrenched right in the middle of the tournament in 10th place, breaking away from the relegation zone on 10 points and a 99.9% saving but at the same time and to the European cup club does not have access. And in the next round at home in a match with Parma, which also have no motivation for the remainder of the season, Cagliari can get that 0.01% and stake a claim for a place in Serie A, and even then, is hard to believe that Genoa and Palermo will manage all their remaining games to win. For example, Palermo tomorrow will play away to Juve, and then just lose points sure, and Genoa in the penultimate round to play with Inter. Thus, in fact, there is no motivation at Cagliari on the rest of the season and this game, the club does not need points. Chievo victory today is important. The club is in 14th place with 39 points recruited, and the gap from the relegation zone is only 7 points, and in addition to the club's match are two difficult departure games to Roma and Atalanta, and the home match against Torino, which is fighting for survival, and means an easy life at Chievo in recent games just will not. Therefore, it is a victory in today's match against Cagliari almost unmotivated to maintain club in Serie A and the last games you can play for fun. Cagliari in terms of injury for the match against Chievo: defender Francesco Pisano (28 games, 1 goal) and Danilo (19 games), midfielders Andrea Cossu (22 games) and Matias Cabrera (7 games), and will miss the match through suspension important striker Mauricio Pinilla (21 games, 7 goals). Of course, there is a loss Chievo, but they are not great - injured defender Nikos Spyropoulos (2 games) and striker Pellisser (24 games, 5 goals). Bookmakers believe in a draw here, from this factor is not so much a victory and a low coefficient of the zero handicap, which would be concrete. Believe in the victory of AC Chievo Verona, they shall deliver.

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Re: Serie A > 4th - 5th May quick note: Palacio might come back against Napoli ;) still even with him against the tough home side Inter can't get more than a point IMO. Fiorentina vs Roma: Over 4.5 goals 11/4 This is the last game against a team from the top half for Fiorentina(after that they play against the relegated Pescara, home against Palermo and away against Siena). So far this season Fiorentina has won 12, drew 4 and only lost 1 game at home ranking them 3rd in Serie A after Juve and Napoli. Home against the top half teams Fiorentina has 5 wins and 3 draws and they are unbeaten in the last 7 games at their stadium. They are in a solid form winning 6 out of 8 games since March(a lucky draw against Milan, and an unlucky loss against Cagliari in both games the penalties were doubtful..). Fiorentina are one point behind AC Milan and are really going to push it for Champions League because otherwise Jovetic might fly away.. Still they are without their core defenders Savic(24 games-2goals) and Roncaglia(23-3). Despite the fact that Fiorentina are the 3rd best home team their home defense is ranked 10th in Serie A with the last home clean sheet in the beginning of February. On the other hand Roma have the second worst defense in Serie A after Pescara :eek The only important player that is doubtful for them is Daniele De Rossi, but I suspect he is going to make it for this key game. They are battling for Europa League, but will face big problems against Fiorentina considering their poor away performance this season: 7 wins, 2 draws and 8 losses. Their current form has been so-so, still in the last 10 games they only lost against Palermo and they are unbeaten in the last 4 Serie A games, but in the last 6 away games they are 2-2-2. Basically the teams with the highest average goals in Italy(Roma 3.59, Fiorentina 3.15, but away Roma 3.65, home Fiorentina 3.35) play against each other in this game, both teams are fighting for Europe, Fiorentina are missing 2 defenders and the first game between the 2 teams ended 4:2 for Fiorentina. I was thinking to bet on Fiorentina, but the missing defenders made me reconsider this one. Home Fiorentina has 6 out of 17 games over 4.5 goals and Roma away has 7 out of 17 games over 4.5 goals this season so at least to me this bet looks value. (over 2.5 is 4/9 and over 3.5 is 6/5 @ Coral for those that think over 4.5 is a bit risky). Good luck to everyone :ok

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Re: Serie A > 4th - 5th May aaand fail. I am not playing goal markets anymore this year :D only results and handicaps. I guess it was about time Fiorentina to lose at Artemio Franchi against a top half team. Fiorentina - Roma 0:1 (Osvaldo in the last minute, but in the first half the better chances were definetly for Fiorentina)

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Re: Serie A > 4th - 5th May

Pure rigged game that was' date=' never betting serie a anymore[/quote'] I hope I didn't lead you to a wrong decision. My post-match analysis, which I do everytime after a losing bet to see if I could have predicted this outcome, leads to a solid conlusion: yes an under 2.5 was a predictable result. The critical thing here is the coach Zdenek Zeman was the coach of Roma in the beginning of the season his football philosophy is clearly based on the attacking side, the offside and zone marking. His teams are well known for their ability to score goals, but also for the corresponding tendency to concede them. In fact, during the 2004–2005 season his Lecce team captured the hearts of many neutrals with their cavalier approach to the game, specificially against the might of Juventus and the Milanese teams.(wiki) In the first 22 games of Roma, while they were lead by Zeman their games had a total of 84 goals! Making an average of 3.81 goals. While after Aurelio Andreazzoli succeeded him in February 2013 in the 11 games they played there were an average of 31 goals or 2.81 goals, if we include this game the average falls further to 2.67 goals. So the conclusion is that for the rest of the season in the last 3 games of Roma it is worth trying an under because the Italian Aurelio Andreazzoli obviously told his players to play the Catenaccio or at least he is making a difference in how his players defend and taught them how to attack responsibly. Today the odds for an over 2.5 were 1.4, which was too damn low, and I didn't even look at the under :D , but you can figure out that the odds were quite atractive ;)
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