f_ivanovic Posted May 2, 2013 Share Posted May 2, 2013 Re: World Championship 20 Apr - 6 May Trump is a great player crowd pleaser but IMHO has no safety game of note. Yeah, he only has 86% safety success this tournament but has no safety game of note. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ELCAKER Posted May 3, 2013 Share Posted May 3, 2013 Re: World Championship 20 Apr - 6 May Having taken a decent profit on the sell of centuries (61 - closed out at 51) and ton-ups (sold at 990, closed out at 700), I have turned my attention to a play on the players ton-ups. I had originally hedged my position on the sell of ton ups by buying Trumps. Obviously as soon as I had done this, (halfway through his 2nd rnd match v Fu) he seemingly lost the ability to score a ton! Just one since then, I was fortunate he got past Murphy as it would have been a painful hit if he had exited at that juncture. I have closed out of some of the bet (25%) for a small loss, but am happy to let the rest ride as I do feel if he can just regain some of the touch of the early matches he can get closer to the spread line. But in looking at the market my eye was taken by another player. Ricky Walden has made 5 centuries this tournament, one more than Trump, and crucially has kept his scoring form throughout. He currently has 81 ton up points, and his line is currently at 113 to buy. That too me looks low. He leads Hawkins 6-2, and if he carries his form forward should be a strong favourite for the final. Hawkins himself has yet to make a ton and that ability to really score heavily might be his undoing in trying to progress to the final. I think Walden seems very comfortable with his game, and if he can stay focused, and the nerves at bay, then a buy at 113 could reap dividends. Buy Walden Ton Ups @ 113 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pobby Posted May 3, 2013 Share Posted May 3, 2013 Re: World Championship 20 Apr - 6 May Having taken a decent profit on the sell of centuries (61 - closed out at 51) and ton-ups (sold at 990, closed out at 700), I have turned my attention to a play on the players ton-ups. I had originally hedged my position on the sell of ton ups by buying Trumps. Obviously as soon as I had done this, (halfway through his 2nd rnd match v Fu) he seemingly lost the ability to score a ton! Just one since then, I was fortunate he got past Murphy as it would have been a painful hit if he had exited at that juncture. I have closed out of some of the bet (25%) for a small loss, but am happy to let the rest ride as I do feel if he can just regain some of the touch of the early matches he can get closer to the spread line. But in looking at the market my eye was taken by another player. Ricky Walden has made 5 centuries this tournament, one more than Trump, and crucially has kept his scoring form throughout. He currently has 81 ton up points, and his line is currently at 113 to buy. That too me looks low. He leads Hawkins 6-2, and if he carries his form forward should be a strong favourite for the final. Hawkins himself has yet to make a ton and that ability to really score heavily might be his undoing in trying to progress to the final. I think Walden seems very comfortable with his game, and if he can stay focused, and the nerves at bay, then a buy at 113 could reap dividends. Buy Walden Ton Ups @ 113 That's a very interesting bet. Going off at a tangent have you considered selling Hawkins at 19? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ELCAKER Posted May 3, 2013 Share Posted May 3, 2013 Re: World Championship 20 Apr - 6 May Pobby I did, but what put me off was the fact he can still get through against Walden, and if he does you are going to have a horrible ride to the finish. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pobby Posted May 3, 2013 Share Posted May 3, 2013 Re: World Championship 20 Apr - 6 May Pobby I did' date=' but what put me off was the fact he can still get through against Walden, and if he does you are going to have a horrible ride to the finish.[/quote'] Agreed! Another consideration may be a sell of Walden's match ton ups @ 15.5. They haven't factored much in for him winning the semi. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ELCAKER Posted May 3, 2013 Share Posted May 3, 2013 Re: World Championship 20 Apr - 6 May Looking at prices on Betfair for outright and I cant believe there isn't a free bet to be had. Walden can currently be backed at 8.4, Hawkins at 18. Both will surely trade lower than 5 at some stage before the end of the tournament and that will guarantee a free bet. Taking each individually...Walden been playing great, 2nd highest number of hundreds in tournament and has a decent position going into 2nd session of semi at 6-2. If he were to make the final would be probably about a 7/2 shot v Ronnie and 5/2 v Trump. On what we've seen both those prices could conceivably be seen as value. Trump having started well, isn't scoring like a man well on the way to a 1st title. Body language isn't great either yet....he is only 9-7 down v ROS. Hawkins hasn't made a ton (yet) but is scoring relatively well...lots of breaks over 50. He's also beaten the better players in reaching the last 4, and if he can improve from the 1st session is still in the semi. At 18's he is value. And will probably be a similar price to Walden in the final. Both offer good trading possibilities. Back both Ricky Walden and BArry Hawkins on Betfair at 8.4 and 18 respectively Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
owenclass Posted May 3, 2013 Share Posted May 3, 2013 Re: World Championship 20 Apr - 6 May Ricky Walden vs Barry Hawkins over 30.5 frames 10/11 skybet match going to deciding frame 4/1 skybet Walden to win 17-15 8/1 skybet this will go all the way two evenly matched players who are desperate to reach their first world championship final Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevshat Posted May 5, 2013 Author Share Posted May 5, 2013 Re: World Championship 20 Apr - 6 May Final preview: 4pts R.O'Sullivan (-6.5 frames) to beat B.Hawkins 10/11 Boylesports I like Barry Hawkins and I’d like to give him a chance in this final but I just can’t find any area where that is possible. We saw in the semi final the nerves he had and that is only likely to escalate in this final. O’Sullivan has all the experience in the world, he’s twice the player and he’s playing twice as well if not more. Ali Carter was on top form when he played O’Sullivan in the last two finals Ronnie’s won and he won 8 frames and 11 frames. I can’t see Hawkins winning any more than him. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/o-sullivan-vs-hawkins-betting-ronnie-can-cruise-to-a-fifth-world-title-20130505 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
owenclass Posted May 5, 2013 Share Posted May 5, 2013 Re: World Championship 20 Apr - 6 May Ronnie O Sullivan vs Barry Hawkins O Sullivan 7.5 frames to win match 11/10 skybet O Sullivan to win first session 4-0 7/2 skybet O Sullivan to win session 7-1 7/1 skybet break over 128.5 11/10 skybet O Sullivan to win 18-11 11/4 or 18-14 3-1 skybet this should be his match he is playing great at the moment and also he scoring heavily so the highest break might be achieved Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aidymac Posted May 5, 2013 Share Posted May 5, 2013 Re: World Championship 20 Apr - 6 May Ronnie O Sullivan vs Barry Hawkins O Sullivan 7.5 frames to win match 11/10 skybet O Sullivan to win first session 4-0 7/2 skybet O Sullivan to win session 7-1 7/1 skybet break over 128.5 11/10 skybet Your here long enough to know that post is not good enough. At least 20 words reasoning or don't bother. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
owenclass Posted May 5, 2013 Share Posted May 5, 2013 Re: World Championship 20 Apr - 6 May Your here long enough to know that post is not good enough. At least 20 words reasoning or don't bother. sorry i was rushing to write up the bet i forgot to add reasoning Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aidymac Posted May 5, 2013 Share Posted May 5, 2013 Re: World Championship 20 Apr - 6 May sorry i was rushing to write up the bet i forgot to add reasoning No worries mate, thanks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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