World Championship 20 Apr - 6 May

[grumpyman]

Re: World Championship 20 Apr - 6 May No way Dott beats Murphy. I think your comments are madness. Murphy performs well against players he should beat and I think we'll see a score around 13-7 or 13-8. He is different class to Dott, a much better break builder, a much better long potter and Dott is known to crumble whereas Murphy stays cool.

[ELCAKER]

Re: World Championship 20 Apr - 6 May Dott is know to crumble?! How on earth do you explain the fact he has won a world title and reached another final? Comments like this are better placed on Betfair....

[f_ivanovic]

Re: World Championship 20 Apr - 6 May Had an each way bet on Robert Milkins to win this year at 150/1. Big longshot but watching him play he's definitely capable and of the outside shots seems the one less likely to crumble under the pressure. If he pulls an upset against Robertson then I can imagine him having a decent chance against Walden and again could beat White or Poomjaeng. Then he's just got one more tough game (possibly against Ding or Selby) and he's in the final. So a favourable draw against him if he can win here this afternoon.

[Aidymac]

Re: World Championship 20 Apr - 6 May

No way Dott beats Murphy. I think your comments are madness. Murphy performs well against players he should beat and I think we'll see a score around 13-7 or 13-8. He is different class to Dott' date=' a much better break builder, a much better long potter and Dott is known to crumble whereas Murphy stays cool.[/quote'] If you think Graham Dott, at the Crucible, has no chance against Murphy, who is a very inconsistent player, you don't know much about snooker.

[grumpyman]

Re: World Championship 20 Apr - 6 May Unfortunately for your wallets you're the ones that don't know much about snooker. Really sorry I don't agree with you. Dott got destroyed here last year and you could see mentally it affected him. Yes he crumbled. Murphy is consistent against players he should beat.

[Aidymac]

Re: World Championship 20 Apr - 6 May

Unfortunately for your wallets you're the ones that don't know much about snooker. Really sorry I don't agree with you. Dott got destroyed here last year and you could see mentally it affected him. Yes he crumbled. Murphy is consistent against players he should beat.

If you want to contribute to the forum, do so in a mannerly fashion please. This is not Betfair. You can put your opinion across without slating other people's posts, would you agree?

[grumpyman]

Re: World Championship 20 Apr - 6 May Let he who is without sin cast the first stone

[kevshat]

Re: World Championship 20 Apr - 6 May Friday previews: 4pts M.Selby (-3.5 frames) to beat B.Hawkins 10/11 Bet365 The key to this match will be how well Barry Hawkins plays over three sessions. I’m sure there will be one session where he plays well but he needs to play well over three sessions to keep with Selby. Even if Selby has an off colour session his B game is still perfectly good enough to win matches as we’ve seen all season so I think Selby will be a bit too strong for a game but ultimately not quite good enough Hawkins. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/selby-vs-hawkins-betting-mark-selby-should-have-too-much-for-hawkins-over-this-distance-20130425 3pts J.Trump (-3.5 frames) to beat M.Fu 10/11 888Sport Judd Trump has a decent record over Marco Fu and I think over this distance he can show that. Fu has never got within more than two frames against Trump so over this massively extended distance I think the young superstar can extend that margin to at least four frames in this match. Fu is more than capable but you suspect he will have a horror session somewhere along the line and that can be the difference. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/fu-vs-trump-betting-marco-fu-may-struggle-to-go-the-distance-with-judd-trump-20130425

[ELCAKER]

Re: World Championship 20 Apr - 6 May I wonder if grumpyman will be putting his head above the parapet re Dott #clueless

[georgebest]

Re: World Championship 20 Apr - 6 May You beat me to it! 8-8. My money's on Murphy and I hope he pulls his finger out, but I was wondering how our knowledgeable friend would prefer his words: fried? scrambled? poached perhaps?

I wonder if grumpyman will be putting his head above the parapet re Dott #clueless

[ELCAKER]

Re: World Championship 20 Apr - 6 May Murphy should win....but what annoyed me as the absolute disregard of Dott's chances, the total refusal to acknowledge the odds being laid, plus calling Kev's comments "madness", I mean of all the people to call "mad" ?!!! Just madness.

[Diddy147]

Re: World Championship 20 Apr - 6 May Lol people think pot balls equals champion. Nothing could be further. If this mornings session was too a finish then Dott would have walked it. As it is it is poised nicely at 8-8 and my £10@Just a tad over 11/1 (12.2)on the betfair exchange this morning looks pretty attractive to me at this point. I will watch the 1st frame tonight and then decide weather to cash out my profit or if Dott wins 1st frame it will be left to ride until I see any evidence of the potting machine murphy getting any kind of fluency into his game. Dott is so underrated it is untrue but there you go people are entitled to opinions. For those interested Dott is now sitting @ 2.44 to lay or 2.38 to back (dont like those backing odds tbh). Murphy is 1.7 back and 1.72 to lay. I love snooker and have grown up around the likes of Dott, Mcmanus, Higgins who all live and practice within 5 miles of me and I have watched them all practice and play regular. There is nobody more committed than Dott to be honest. A very talented player...albeit not as good as top 5 or so. It would not shock me in any way to see Dott beat Murphy and we know he has the game to upset/beat anybody in the game. Write off his chances at your wallets peril.

[ELCAKER]

Re: World Championship 20 Apr - 6 May Dott showing all those crumbling tendencies that grumpyman was on about in this 23d frame....

[chris666]

Re: World Championship 20 Apr - 6 May Say what u like about Dott, but he's shown throughout the game with Murphy that he has got fighting qualities. Whatever the outcome he's done himself proud

[kevshat]

Re: World Championship 20 Apr - 6 May Yeah was a nonsense to say he isn't a battler. Shame he couldn't get over the line. Damage was done in the first session when Murphy was on fire. Agree with Diddy, if there was a couple more frames this morning Dott probably would have won. Saturday previews: 3pts A.Carter to beat R.O'Sullivan 9/4 Ladbrokes I always feel this is the round where the defending champion is the most vulnerable because having played last Saturday it has been a whole week since they played whereas everyone else plays during the week and has their eye in. For the champion this is like a new tournament even though they have won a match. I think O’Sullivan is particularly vulnerable here because he was rusty enough coming into the event. Carter has an awful record against O’Sullivan but if he can forget about that and play his game he’s match sharp enough to win this. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/o-sullivan-vs-carter-betting-ali-carter-could-finally-put-his-o-sullivan-hoodoo-to-bed-in-sheffield-20130426 4pts D.Junhui (-4.5 frames) to beat M.King 11/10 Paddy Power Mark King had a great win in the first round over Mark Allen but I just don’t see how he will be consistent enough and to be honest good enough over this distance to beat someone like Ding who is playing some excellent snooker and scoring like a dream and it is that scoring which could well be the difference here. Ding isn’t making 50 or 60 from his chances he’s making 80+ and once King knows his mistakes are getting punished he’ll become demoralised quite quickly. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/ding-vs-king-betting-ding-junhui-can-outclass-mark-king-in-sheffield-20130426

[grumpyman]

Re: World Championship 20 Apr - 6 May I'm enjoying all your snide digs and comments. Pointless to challenge any opinions on here as just get abuse. I didnt say he wasnt a battler i said he can crumble. He came back well but the result was never in doubt. Dott played a number of poor shots at crucial times and was waving his cue all over the place. No bets today. Ronnie will beat Carter because he always does and he just can't shake the monkey off his back. I have seen Ding throw away too many opportunities in the past for me to rely on him. King is a steady player who can grind you down and Ding can be impatient. Ding -4.5 seems a risk in my opinion. Tomorrow I fancy Davis to beat Bingham based on few interview comments i read from Ballrun I think he is worried about the matchup.

[Diddy147]

Re: World Championship 20 Apr - 6 May I agree that Ding is too short on his odds surprised to see you think that there is value in -4.5 frames at those prices. But I do agree that Carter has every chance against o'sullivan. I am not convinced by O'Sullivan just yet. Campbell did not punish his mistakes hard enough in the 1st round and the score line was flattering. Carter on his day has the game to upset Ronnie. I just want to see how Ronnie copes with someone who can play a decent safety game and score hard when in the balls. This could be the test he needs to see if he is capable of lifting this trophy after a 12 month break. That may sound as if I am negative about O'Sullivan and truth be told im not. I am just not convinced YET. If he comes through a tough match then IMHO he is going to be hard to beat and his pre tournament price will then be justified. @ Grumpy ...dont be so grumpy man lol. Dott is a great player....he may not play to the crowd nor be flash and pot balls of the lampshades but do not make the mistake that he is not a fantastically gifted all round player with a ton of "balls". He has won the biggest tournament of them all which nobody can take away. He uses what he has better than players with arguably more talent do ....I hope you get what I am trying to say. One last point - What we are all about here is looking for value...don't confuse that with rooting for your favourite player...the two are not mutually exclusive.

[grumpyman]

Re: World Championship 20 Apr - 6 May Diddy I appreciate your honesty and I agree totally. Value is the key. Just Dott at 7/4 was not value to me as I only saw only winner. You may not believe it but Dott is one of my favs as he plays to his abilities but he just is not good enough these days. Likewise Carter and likewise Ding -4.5 i dont agree with those bets. They are just going to lose in my opinion and coming close does not pay the bills. Davis is value to me. I think Bingham is average and Davis is average so this should be even matchup. I really feel Davis could be a great bet. I don't like some of the abuse I am given for disagreeing. I know my stuff and I think I have explained myself enough. I am a grumpy guy by nature but some of the comments I have been receiving have cheered me up. They ain't going to beat me.

[kevshat]

Re: World Championship 20 Apr - 6 May Sunday previews: 4pts S.Bingham vs M.Davis - Over 22.5 frames 11/10 Bet365 I think this will be a close match. Their last two matches in ranking events have gone to a deciding frame and while I’m not sure if this will be that tight but I do think both men will win double figures and if there is a winner in the sessions it will only be 5-3 rather than a really one sided scoreline. Both men are pretty evenly matched so I like the over 22.5 frames line here. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/bingham-vs-davis-betting-battle-of-the-improved-players-can-be-close-throughout-20130427 4pts R.Milkins to beat R.Walden 11/8 Ladbrokes I like Robert Milkins here. I was impressed with his safety against Robertson. It wasn’t of the Higgins variety of anything like that but when you know your opponent pots them from anywhere it can be tough to get things safe but he managed that and when his chances came along he scored heavily. Walden had a big win but that was a week ago. It is like a new tournament for him now and although his win was good his chances were handed to him. I’m not sure that be the case here so I’ll take Milkins. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/walden-vs-milkins-betting-robert-milkins-can-set-up-quarter-final-with-michael-white-20130428

[owenclass]

Re: World Championship 20 Apr - 6 May Ding Junhui vs Mark King over 22.5 frames 10/11 skybet the way these two are playing no one is looking like running away with it so i have feeling it might go to the wire

[mcsilks]

Re: World Championship 20 Apr - 6 May

Right, this tournament has opened up unbelievably, so it's time to exploit that and start making some money. I, presumably like a lot of you as well, spend a lot of time hunting around looking for value bets, which are normally difficult to find. So, a tournament like this which has opened up and provides easy value right in front of our eyes can't be ignored and we have to lump on to take what should hopefully be fairly easy cash. Let's start with the bottom half of the draw. Ding is a class (or two) above the other 5 players left in the bottom half, so over these long matches that will show and he should reach the final. So, either a bet on just that, or perhaps an each way on him to win the tournament, or just 3 singles on his last 16, quarter final and semi, however you think is the most profitable way to play it. I think this may be his year, he will surely be the world champion at least once, he's flown under the radar a bit this year and with the much easier half of the draw would come into the final far fresher than any opponent, so I think the each way bet on him for the title is the way to go. Continuing with the bottom half, along similar lines, Ricky Walden should reach the semis before losing to Ding. Back this if you can find it, but it may have to be in the form of consecutive single bets. Having won two(?) ranking events (one of which was back in the day when ranking events were few and far between and meant a lot more) Walden is again a class above Robert Milkins and Michael White. The top half is a bit more difficult to call. It should be a Ronnie - Trump semi, but Ali Carter may not be finished in this tournament just yet. Trump to beat Murphy and Ronnie/Carter to win their quarter final are the bets here but not as certain as the bets in the bottom half. In summary, top bets are Ding to reach the final and Walden to reach the semis and Trump to beat Murphy is a reasonable bet as well.

If this tournament has shown anything then it is to avoid "lumping on". Mark Allen is a class above Mark King but got beaten. Maguire is several classes above Poomjaeng but got beaten. Robertson is a class above Milkins but got beaten. Higgins is a class above Davis but got beaten. Selby is a class above Hawkins but got beaten. These results suggest the value bets will be to back the outsiders as past results suggest the upsets are certainly far from over.

[Diddy147]

Re: World Championship 20 Apr - 6 May As I hinted at earlier in the thread I try to find my value "In Play" generally on Betfair so that I can cash out if things are looking shaky (Hopefully with a profit). Take The Dott vrs Murphy match Dott was 12.2 when 6-2 down going into the morning session. 4 frames is nothing in a 25 frame match (as has already been proved) so 12.2 was generous as long as you believed Dott would win a few frames in the morning. As it turned out he went on a nice little steam and he was favourite at one point (Frame 21 when Murphy needed snooker looking like 11-10 to dott). So You could cash out there or let it ride for a bit. As it happened I let it ride and Dott lost that frame to trail 11-10.....I then cashed out as I said I would @ 3.4 So my £50 in the morning returned me £172.99 (£122.99 profit). As stated I "could" have cashed out slightly earlier and my profit would have been £280+...Im not complaining though. The important thing is there was value in that Dott has/had fighting qualities. Same thing round before I had £20 on Ebdon when he was 6-3 down going into morning session.....Once again the odds on ebdon were "value" @ 13.5 once again I cashed out at 7-7 when the game was pulled off - returned £55 (£35 profit)....crap game but Ebdon never gives up and was never going to capitulate without a fight and also it was not as if Dott were potting them off the lampshades.... That brings us to now. I am treading carefully now as I have not been around these "new" players as much....I at one time could tell you who beat who when where what season they were enjoying ect ect all from the top of my head...but with all these tournies these days my knowledge is not as great. I do know a good bit about snooker though but I still think all value is "in play". I keep seeing ronnie play and although a "genius" I just don't believe he has the game at the moment to take this down. His odds are a joke TBH. His long pot success yesterday was

[kevshat]

Re: World Championship 20 Apr - 6 May First QF preview: 4pts J.Trump vs S.Murphy - Over 21.5 frames 4/5 BetVictor This should be an exciting quarter final with both players going into it playing very well. I don’t expect too much safety to be played here as both men like to get the balls open and make big breaks. Murphy will need to be aggressive in this match but if he can continue to knock long balls in then he would have every chance. Judd looks very good but he’ll inevitably give Murphy a few chances so I expect this one to be quite close come the end. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/murphy-vs-trump-betting-pick-of-the-quarter-finals-should-be-close-throughout-20130429

[kevshat]

Re: World Championship 20 Apr - 6 May Second QF preview: 3pts B.Hawkins to beat D.Junhui 2/1 Paddy Power I don’t think Ding has played anywhere near his best snooker so far in this tournament but he’s going to have to play some of it here if he is to stay in the event. Hawkins is no mug and while most underestimate him they shouldn’t do as he has the confidence of being a ranking event winner now. Hawkins beat Ding in the China Open last month and I think he’s good value for a repeat here given the performances of both so far this week. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/ding-vs-hawkins-betting-barry-hawkins-looks-good-value-to-keep-the-surprises-coming-in-sheffield-20130429

[piobhan]

Its been a tough tournament so far with lots of big names failing to perform due to burnout etc.. I quiet fancy trump to go on and win this, he is playing some great snooker and seems very relaxed. He is in the tough side of the draw and will have to beat Murphy, Ronnie and possibly Ding to succeed. At around 100/30 I think he is worth backing and in with a great chance if he can maintain his form. Also having a small punt on Trump, Ronnie, Ding and Walder each to win their quarter finals at around 3/1. Good luck with your bets Sent from my GT-I9100 using PL Forum

[kevshat]

Re: World Championship 20 Apr - 6 May Last two QF previews: 4pts R.O'Sullivan vs S.Bingham - Over 3.5 centuries 6/5 Ladbrokes O’Sullivan should win this match but if he doesn’t find his long game soon then he will be found out eventually. Whether that’s in this match or not I don’t know but I’m not going to predict that. One thing I will predict is that we’ll see a few centuries in this match. O’Sullivan made three tons against Carter despite barely potting a long ball while Bingham can rattle in big breaks when he gets in so I think we’ll see four tons here. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/o-sullivan-vs-bingham-betting-expect-to-see-a-few-centuries-in-this-quarter-final-20130430 4pts R.Walden vs M.White - Over 21.5 frames 8/11 BetVictor I think this will be a close quarter final. Ricky Walden deserves to be favourite but I’ve liked Michael White for a while and it is no surprise to me that he’s impressing on this big stage. It’s new territory for him but he’s more than good enough to cope with it. Walden looks to be playing well so this could well turn out to be the closest of the four quarter finals. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/walden-vs-white-betting-two-unexpected-quarter-finalists-can-play-out-closest-match-of-the-round-20130430

[twobob]

Re: World Championship 20 Apr - 6 May Wow Ronnie is on fire! I am not counting on him winning the tournament but as I stated previously 6/1 now looks a HUGE price! He is currently 10/11 to win the tournament, unsure whether to lay off my bet or stick with it?

[hebert10]

Re: World Championship 20 Apr - 6 May Got on O'Sullivan at the start of this at 13/2 on 365...Just can't see anyone getting close to him. Was wary at the start because he's played so little but you can't beat watching the rocket at the top of his game! Would have put a few more bets on this if I had more time but I'll stick with the one! Funny feeling Trump might come close now though after battling past Murphy.

[kevshat]

Re: World Championship 20 Apr - 6 May Semi final one preview: 4pts R.O'Sullivan (-2.5 frames) to beat J.Trump 5/6 Boylesports I really do believe Judd Trump is a better player now than when he made the final of this tournament, or should I say he’s playing better now, but the problem he has is he is up against a genius in this semi final. The only reason I didn’t think O’Sullivan could defend this title was because he wasn’t getting in from distance. He made a mockery of that thought against Bingham and he is playing snooker you very rarely see. This will be a fantastic match. It can’t not be but I’m not sure stoking the fire like he did in his press conference will do Judd any good, it will just make O’Sullivan concentrate even harder and over this distance I just don’t see Trump being consistent enough to stay with the Rocket. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/o-sullivan-vs-trump-betting-o-sullivan-can-prove-too-good-for-trump-in-the-dream-semi-final-20130501

[kevshat]

Re: World Championship 20 Apr - 6 May Semi final two preview: 4pts R.Walden vs B.Hawkins - Over 29.5 frames 10/11 Paddy Power I think this will be a fairly tight match throughout. I say that because I think the occasion will ensure it is close. Both men will be in the one table environment for the first time and both are playing for a place in their first world final so there will be nerves and it will be cagey at times. Both men are fairly evenly matched. Neither has a clear advantage in any facet of the game so this one should be quite tight as they come down the final stretch on Saturday night. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/walden-vs-hawkins-betting-second-semi-final-likely-to-be-very-close-throughout-20130501