April 14 - April 21

[CzechPunter]

The big one apparently starts tomorrow, so here we go with the thread already.

[axbx]

Re: April 8 - April 14 Balleret - Mayer Under 19,5 games: 1,94 @ MarathonBet (10/10) Surprisingly good price on this. A top30 player against a futures level player... Even if Mayer is in bad form now, and even if Balleret is playing at home, Mayer should win comfortably. 6-4, 6-3 is enough to win, but I expect a 6-1, 6-3. In 2002 Balleret retired after the German won the first set to 6-0. Big gap between the two players. Dodig +3 games to beat Paire 2,02 @ MarathonBet (1/10) I think Paire is overpriced in this matchup. It's true that Paire is more comfortable on clay but none of them are claycourters so I expect a close matchup. Their only encounter was on clay and Paire won to 7-6, 7-6.

[Guardiola]

Re: April 14 - April 21 Back Fabio Fognini to beat Andreas Seppi. 2,46 @ marathonbet (5/10) Don´t really get why Fognini is considered to be outsider here, especially on clay court. I think game can go either way. Seppi has the bigger serve, but Fognini impresses with solid baseline shots and fighting spirit. Both players are Italian and know each other well. In H2H Seppi leads 4:2, but the last game between those two did Fognini win. Due to shape, Fognini should be in front. He has played some really nice matches, even on hard court, and has shown decent tennis at his last clay court tournament at Acapulco (where he lost against Ferrer in three sets and had beaten Wawrinka before). So, this match should be even. Back Ernests Gulbis to beat John Isner in straight sets. 2,37 @ bet365 (5/10) Even some months ago I would have never backed Gulbis when he was a favorite, and much less in a straight winner bet. But things have changed, Gulbis began to show his potential that he has ever had on the court. He wants to show everybody what he can, and since that point, he was mentally much stronger than before, and his results improved a lot. Isner is an anti-clay courter, especially on the slower European courts. He has to play the final at Houston tonight, where he played some nice stuff, but didn´t really impress me. So he will be tired on Tuesday and suffer from jet lag. I think Gulbis will crash him here. Back Milos Raonic (-2,5 games) to beat Julien Benneteau. 1,85 @ marathonbet (6/10) Benneteau is really out of shape, he didn´t play well for a long time now. Raonic will not get broken, when Benneteau isn´t playing at his best. On the other side, Raonic improved a lot in his baseline game and is really now capable of beating some decent players even on clay court. And even I am not considering Benneteau to be that decent player in his recent shape. Benjamin Balleret vs Florian Mayer under 19,5 games. 1,94 @ marathonbet (7/10) Totally agree with axbx here. Back Horacio Zeballos to beat Marin Cilic. 4,00 @ sportingbet (2/10) Horacio Zeballos vs. Marin Cilic over 21,5 games. 1,95 @ marathonbet (5/10) I have to try this doggy pick. I don´t like Cilic and I don´t like his style of play either. So perhaps I am a bit prejudiced here. But Zeballos is really a decent clay courter, capable of beating top players on clay court. When it comes to baseline rallies I fancy Zeballos. Hopefully Cilic struggles on his serve a bit, than the over line should be covered, and perhaps, even the moneyline pick.

[WinningTipster]

Re: April 14 - April 21 1 PICK FOR ATP MONTE CARLO: ZEBALLOS-CILIC OVER 20.5 GAMES @ 1.73 on pinnaclesports Zeballos is a great clay courter with a lot of variety and hard shots from the baseline, and a relatively big serve. He should keep it a close match against bookies favorite Cilic.

[homunculus]

Re: April 14 - April 21 Not big fan of futures, but this one looks quite good: Murray to win Monte Carlo @15.53 Pinnacle (1/10) With Federer and Ferrer out and Djoker's ankle in question there are only three serious opponents: Nadal who "owns" this tournament, Del Potro and possibly Berdych (who ousted Murray out last year here). Del Potro did not look good at all in Miami, and Berdych is known choker, so I shall assume that Andy, who is now better player than last year, is going to dispose both, or more precisely, any of them, because the only match he could meet DelPo or Berdych is the final. Now, of course, there is Nadal. If all goes well, these two can meet in the semis, which will be their 4-th match in this event. Murray did already beat Nadal, though never on clay. However, despite Rafa's apparently superb shape after his south American return, his knee should still be considered the issue, IMO, and Andy should have fair chance in that match. The odds are worth the risc, I think.

[homunculus]

Re: April 14 - April 21 Goffin (+1.5 sets) to bt Almagro @Pinnacle 2.66 (5/10) Mugro just managed to show kinda meltdown in sunday's Houston final across the sea. He is scheduled to play tuesday 3PM local time in Monte Carlo. He should be pissed off, tired, and suffer a jet-lag. Goffin is no pushover on clay - he had nice run last year at French Open where he took a set off Federer in round four. I bet he is going to start on Mugro the hard way. And with Mugro's acknowledged weak nerves, he's got pretty good chance.

[Torque]

Re: April 14 - April 21 Back Stanislas Wawrinka to win ATP Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters @ 85.00 >Betfair I like Wawrinka as an outsider in Monaco, and at a big price which has got bigger since I took it. He is in the bottom half of the draw, and has Murray and Tsonga in his quarter. Whilst Wawrinka has had plenty of matches on clay in the last couple of months, Murray hasn't played on clay so far this season and Tsonga has only had a couple of Davis Cup rubbers. Wawrinka's first match here is against Istomin, and he should be able to come through as he is far more comfortable on the surface than the Uzbek. His next match would be against either Monfils or Montanes, and he would be expected to meet Murray if he wins. Monfils played in Houston last week after a few weeks off the tour and struggled for form, and Montanes has only won four main draw matches since the Australian Open, two of which were against Andujar. On clay, Wawrinka has a good record against Murray, and even though they haven't met on the surface for a number of years, I still think that's a good sign. If Wawrinka makes the quarter-final he may play Tsonga, in what would probably be a close match. They have played each other twice on clay at the French Open with one win each, and both times it went to five sets. Nadal is very likely to be Wawrinka's opponent in the semi-final, and although its hard to make a case that Wawrinka could win, if he manages to play to the level that he did against Djokovic at the Australian Open then who knows. Djokovic should advance to the final from the other half of the draw, but he has been recovering from an ankle injury and might not be able to participate in the tournament. Nadal is the eight-time defending champion in Monte-Carlo, but if this is the year that his streak comes to an end then Wawrinka is a player that I'm happy to be on.

[homunculus]

Re: April 14 - April 21

Back Stanislas Wawrinka to win ATP Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters @ 85.00 >Betfair [... snip ...]

Hi Torque, interesting writeup, but what do you think about Wawa's recent shamefull loss to Robredo? I mean this meltdown after having won 6-1 the first set. Did he lose on purpose? What do you think?

[axbx]

Re: April 14 - April 21 I always post my worst picks here... Just a quick note: Wawrinka is 140 @ Betfair now.

[Torque]

Re: April 14 - April 21

Hi Torque, interesting writeup, but what do you think about Wawa's recent shamefull loss to Robredo? I mean this meltdown after having won 6-1 the first set. Did he lose on purpose? What do you think?

I knew about the loss to Robredo, but two things convinced me not to worry about it too much. Firstly, Robredo is a good player. If he's completely fit and playing well then I think he is capable of giving most players a good match, particularly on clay. Secondly, I think it's entirely possible that Wawrinka had at least one eye on Monte-Carlo. He's been playing well overall so far this year, and maybe thought that he wanted to give it a real go this week.

[suludtreci]

Re: April 14 - April 21 this one was easy :) cheers mate

[Regnavetto]

Re: April 14 - April 21 Ramos Fognini. Over 23.5 @ 2.28 with Pinnacle 8/10 These odds are too good to be true. It’s a very interesting match-up between two clay-courters. Fognini is a very crafty and talented player and I really do fancy him to win against Ramos. In the match against his fellow countryman Seppi, Fognini was really motivated to prove to all the Italian fans that came, that he is the number 1 Italian. This was clearly to be seen by his body language throughout the match and at the end when he held up 1 finger, symbolizing the number 1. However he did show both highs and lows. He interchanged between both great plays and winners on the one hand and poor shot selection and errors. This is also the reason I cannot trust him to take care of Ramos in a comfortable fashion and this is also the main key in taking the overs. Another is that Ramos is no mug on this surface and definitely could beat Fognini on a good day. The Spaniard has already played three matches on this surface and after a match against low ranked Eysseric he comfortably dispatched Volandri and Stepanek, the latter one coming back from a period of injury and returning on a surface that he doesn’t prefer. In the end a real clear winner cannot be picked. One certain thing is that both players tend to throw in some poor games. A three setter is something I’m rather sure of in this one. Great value.

[homunculus]

Re: April 14 - April 21 Most entertaining match this Monaco-Gulbis, LOL. Never in my life I've seen GAME (not POINT) penalty (though I have already seen match lost due to disqualification - London's final Nalby vs Cilic where Nalby got fired because he involuntarily injured a linesman). The funny thing is I had small LIVE bet on Gulbis to break back in that dropped out game that was never played :-) edit some 4 hours later - I love Pinnacle - the wager on the game 3 set 3 (that actually never took place) has been cancelled. So I got my money back.

[homunculus]

Re: April 14 - April 21 Taking some early market odds: T. Berdych vs F. Fognini @4.550 Pinnacle (2/10) Berdy did not look good at all vs. Granollers. He was broken first in both sets, and was lucky Marc always choked the lead away. Berdy has been complaining about fatigue lately and that was also the reason he did not join CZ Davis Cup team in Astana (KAZ) 10 days ago. I'd say that he is still tired. Foggy already did beat him on clay - namely in this very tournament 4 years ago, so there are chances. P. Kohlschreiber vs R. Nadal @29.680 Pinnacle (0.5/10) These odds are a joke. I did not like Nadal at all today vs this dumbhead Marinko Matosevic. The result (6-1 6-2) is flattering because this should have been something like 6-4 6-4. Marinko lost the match in his head before the match even started and his terrible UE's spoke for all. Kohli did beat Nadal on grass last year (in his home country in Halle), and though Nadal already had problems with his knees then, it looks probable that his problems persist - no movement against Matosevic, all Nadal's points were won by amazing shot placement. Kohli is dropshot master, and is going to test Nadal's knees to the limits. Waiting for the lines to appear - Kohli took a set off Nadal on hard court last year in Doha (where Nadal was healthy), so perhaps the overs will be the BIG stake - with 30ish ML I can see the line to be around 17, LOL. This ML wager I am ready to trade on the first occasion.

[homunculus]

Re: April 14 - April 21 Kohlshreiber vs Nadal O17.5 @2.17 Pinnacle (5/10) See above. IMO Kohli is fully capable of winning 6 games if Marinko Matosevic managed to win 3 (including 1 break!). In fact, 5 games is enough if Kohli manages to get them in the same set. Kohli is no pushover on clay, did won Munich tournament last year, and , as already said above, did actually beat Nadal last year (on grass).

[georgebest]

Re: April 14 - April 21 What a good call re Fognini! I missed the boat initially but managed to hop aboard in play....thanks and well done.

Taking some early market odds: T. Berdych vs F. Fognini @4.550 Pinnacle (2/10) Berdy did not look good at all vs. Granollers. He was broken first in both sets, and was lucky Marc always choked the lead away. Berdy has been complaining about fatigue lately and that was also the reason he did not join CZ Davis Cup team in Astana (KAZ) 10 days ago. I'd say that he is still tired. Foggy already did beat him on clay - namely in this very tournament 4 years ago, so there are chances.

[homunculus]

Re: April 14 - April 21 Kohli played like stupid idiot and kill me if the number of serves he managed to return exceeded 5. However, he managed to cover the overs , albeit very close, ufff. Healthy 12.5 pts profit for today. Plus 8.3 pts from that Goffin match it takes me to +20 pts for the tournament which is enough. Keeping the Murray future running and see ya next week or so.

[suludtreci]

Re: April 14 - April 21

Kohli played like stupid idiot and kill me if the number of serves he managed to return exceeded 5. However, he managed to cover the overs , albeit very close, ufff. Healthy 12.5 pts profit for today. Plus 8.3 pts from that Goffin match it takes me to +20 pts for the tournament which is enough. Keeping the Murray future running and see ya next week or so.

great calls... thnx!

[CzechPunter]

Re: April 14 - April 21 Back Fabio Fognini to beat Richard Gasquet for a 2/10 stake at 3.82 with Pinnacle Fognini looks to be playing at ease right now and I think that he has what it takes to beat Gasquet today if he finds his best form once again. Gasquet will be a tougher opponent than Berdych, there is no doubt about that, but I think that he is not really firing at the moment and I wouldn't be surprised by seeing him fall today. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/fognini-vs-gasquet-betting-the-italian-can-continue-his-dream-run-in-monte-carlo-20130419 Back R.Nadal/G.Dimitrov - Under 18.5 games for a 2/10 stake at 1.95 with Pinnacle Kohlschreiber came close to covering this line, but I am not sure that Dimitrov will. I would fancy him to do that on a hard court, but I still think that he lacks the defensive skills that are required if one is to challenge guys like Nadal on clay, so he might be in for a truly uphill battle in Monte Carlo today. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/nadal-vs-dimitrov-betting-rafael-nadal-should-have-no-problems-against-the-bulgarian-20130419

[bubblepower]

Re: April 14 - April 21 i presume u mean 18.5 ?

[keepsakes]

Re: April 14 - April 21 Fognini +5.5 games @ 1.72 sounds good to me. I feel he is confident enough to put in a good shift here. It is a very good breakthrough for the Italian who enjoys a good support here in Monte Carlo. Djokovic looks good but he is not solid enough to blow Fognini to shreds here. The Italian might play inspired and do well here. He might even take a set. PS: I haven't seen much tennis this week and this one is a pure guess. PS2: What do you folks think?

[CzechPunter]

Re: April 14 - April 21 Back Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (+1.5 sets) to beat Rafael Nadal for a 2/10 stake at 3.12 with Pinnacle Nadal certainly did not play well yesterday and I can definitely see Tsonga being good enough for a set. It is not going to be an easy task for him, but he has all the big shots that could trouble Nadal right now and, if he can execute them consistently well, he should be able to trouble the defending champion today. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/tsonga-vs-nadal-betting-jo-wilfried-tsonga-looks-value-against-rafael-nadal-20130420 Back Fabio Fognini (+1.5 sets) to beat Novak Djokovic for a 2/10 stake at 2.90 with Unibet The second semifinal should certainly be a cracker with Fognini playing free-flowing tennis and one simply has to think that these odds are a bit off. Monaco took a set off Djokovic, Youzhny did the same - so why shouldn't Fognini have a chance? Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/fognini-vs-djokovic-betting-fabio-fognini-s-great-run-might-get-a-decent-ending-20130420

[CzechPunter]

Re: April 14 - April 21 Back Novak Djokovic to beat Rafael Nadal for a 2/10 stake at 3.02 with Pinnacle Well, this price looks a bit wrong to me. It would be right at the beginning of the week, as Nadal was playing well back then and Djokovic was still having quite a few problems, but things have changed fairly dramatically since then and it seems that Djokovic is the guy with the momentum right now. It is not going to be easy and Rafa still deserves to be the favourite, but this price looks ridiculous nonetheless in all fairness. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/djokovic-vs-nadal-betting-novak-djokovic-looks-value-in-the-battle-of-the-titans-20130421

[Alfie White]

Re: April 14 - April 21 What is this? Why is Rafael Nadal priced 1.40 against top player of the world? Since I don't think Novak is plagued by ankle injury as he had quite awesome performances last 2 matches, this odd 2.8 represent pure value in my opinion. True, Nadal is master of the clay but he is not favorite in this match by any means. If anything it should be around evens at least. I have 2 suggestions for this match: - over 22.5 gems, odds around 1.8; - Novak in handicap, ML for brave punters.

[Torque]

Re: April 14 - April 21 For anyone thinking of backing Djokovic, I agree with CzechPunter and Alfie White that there might be some value in opposing Nadal. Djokovic's ankle looks to be OK and so he should be able to give Nadal a tough match.

[Alfie White]

Re: April 14 - April 21 Didn't expect Novak to trash Nadal that hard in 1st set, I've played ML on Novak, hope anyone followed :)

[Abd El Kader french]

Re: April 14 - April 21 good bets guys ;) I have play the O23 @1.96 :wall