April 1 - April 7

[CzechPunter]

:ok

[slider24]

Re: April 1 - April 7 WTA Monterrey - Alexandra Stevenson to beat Laura Pous-Tio @ 11/4 BET 365 Strength (5/10) Pous-Tio too short here IMO. Apart from a two week spell a couple of years ago when she did well here in Monterrey and Indian Wells she's very average on hard court and way more at home on a clay court. She lacks power on the hard stuff and could well find Stevenson's power too tough to handle. People may remember Stevenson reaching the Wimbledon semi-finals back in 1999. She's 32 now and he has fallen off the map with injuries etc but she's still capable of playing decent tennis and has played pretty well recently, pushing Monica Puig ( a far better hard court player than Pous-Tio) close a few weeks back and she did well yesterday in her match. She will hope to improve her first serve percentage but regardless, Pous-Tio had coughed up 13 break points on her own serve yesterday against a mediocre player so serve probably won't matter much today and Stevenson should get plenty of chances that in her current form she should take. :hope

[slider24]

Re: April 1 - April 7 Leon Challenger - Manuel Sanchez to beat Thomas Fabbiano @ 7/1 BET 365 Strength (5/10) Unbelievable odds here IMO. Obviously Fabbiano should be fave but the bookies seem to be reading way too much into Sanchez's loss to Millman on the clay last week. Firstly that tournament is a joke as the standard of tennis all week has been diabolical and secondly Sanchez unusually for a Mexican is far better on faster surfaces than on clay. Yesterday he fired down 13 aces in a pretty impressive win over the dangerous Aussie Chris Guccione and only faced a couple of break points. Fabbiano really isn't that much better or established on hard than Guccione so there's no reason why today should be a tougher task. Also Fabbiano had a tough match yesterday against a pretty limited player in Wolmarens that he was quite fortunate to win so he's not exactly playing great. These two actually played each other on grass last year and although Fabbiano won 6/2 7/6 it was actually a pretty competitive match in the end so in his home country and coming off a fine serving display yesterday then Sanchez at 7/1 is far too big. :hope

[CzechPunter]

Re: April 1 - April 7 Back Caroline Wozniacki to win WTA Charleston for a 1/10 stake at 7.50 with Stan James Back Samantha Stosur to win WTA Charleston for a 1/10 stake at 17.00 with Stan James Serena Williams is obviously the main favourite for the title, but you just never know with her these days. She might want to win it and she might be able to do that, but the fact is that her campaign in Miami must have taken some energy from her and this event isn't really that important, so there you go. Wozniacki and Stosur have both done well in Charleston in the past, so they look like good bets to me this week. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/wta-charleston-betting-serena-williams-might-fall-rather-early-over-in-charleston-20130401 Back Urszula Radwanska to win WTA Monterrey for a 1/10 stake at 34.00 with Paddy Power Back Monica Niculescu to win WTA Monterrey for a 1/10 stake at 23.00 with BetVictor It is a fairly small event over in Monterrey, so I wouldn't be surprised by seeing an underdog winning it. Both Niculescu and Radwanska seem to be playing quite well right now, so I am willing to have a small punt on them doing well this week in Mexico at these prices. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/wta-monterrey-betting-some-of-the-underdogs-might-have-a-chance-in-monterrey-this-week-20130401

[Torque]

Re: April 1 - April 7 I agree with CzechPunter about Wozniacki, and I'm taking one other in Charleston. Back Caroline Wozniacki to win WTA Family Circle Cup @ 8.40 >Betfair I think Wozniacki can bounce back from her early exit last time out in Miami, particularly as she only recently took a wild card in order to enter the main draw here. This suggests to me that she is motivated and keen to do well, and she looks to have a good chance of at least reaching the last four. She might play either Stosur or Barthel for a place in the final, and as her record against Barthel is very good and Stosur picked up an injury recently she would probably be favourite to advance to a possible match against Serena Williams for the title. Williams is the top seed and is expected to win the tournament, but she may well run out of steam at some point after winning the title in Miami last week. Despite that victory, she appeared to be struggling physically at times and so Wozniacki might have a better chance in Charleston than the price suggests. Back Jelena Jankovic to win WTA Family Circle Cup @ 46.00 >Betfair I backed Jankovic in Miami, and I think she is worth sticking with this week. Her recent form has been good, and although she was beaten easily last week in the semi-final against Sharapova, by all accounts she wasn't helped by the way the tournament was scheduled which meant that she didn't have much time to recover after her quarter-final match. Her first match here is against Oudin, and although Oudin leads the h2h, she doesn't appear to have won any matches since Sydney. Jankovic should be able to make the second round, where she would face Garcia, a player she has beaten before and who hasn't done much on the main tour so far this year. She might play Barthel in the third round, followed by a possible quarter-final against Stosur. Barthel has lost her last two matches and appears to be quite erratic, and it's difficult to know what kind of shape Stosur will be in after she was injured in her last match. If Jankovic makes it to the semi-final, her opponent could be Wozniacki. Recent meetings between the two have gone the way of Woznaicki, but initially it was Jankovic that held the upper hand. I think Jankovic has shown signs in the last few weeks that she is getting back to her best, and if she is able to bring her best form into a match against Wozniacki then she should have a chance of making the final. Serena Williams is the top seed and in the top half of the draw, and so would more than likely be the player that Jankovic would need to beat to take the title. It's interesting to note that Jankovic beat Williams in their only meeting on clay a few years ago, and as there is also the possibility that some of the niggles that Williams appeared to have picked up in Miami might catch up with her, I think Jankovic is worth a small investment.

[CzechPunter]

Re: April 1 - April 7 Back Jana Cepelova (+4) to beat Ayumi Morita for a 2/10 stake at 1.99 with Pinnacle The surface in Monterrey seems to be fairly quick and that is something that Morita isn't going to like that much. On the other hand, Cepelova isn't afraid of going for the big shots, so I can definitely see her covering this line. She will just need to find her range reasonably early. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/cepelova-vs-morita-betting-jana-cepelova-to-cover-the-handicap-line-against-ayumi-morita-20130402 Back Julia Cohen (+5.5) to beat Donna Vekic for a 2/10 stake at 2.01 with Pinnacle Donna Vekic might be a massive talent, but I think that it would be a mistake to assume that she is going to be crushing everyone who is ranked below her. Julia Cohen is a fairly decent player by all kinds of standards and I think that there is every chance of her covering this handicap line today. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/cohen-vs-vekic-betting-julia-cohen-might-be-able-to-have-a-say-in-her-match-against-donna-vekic-20130402

[Guardiola]

Re: April 1 - April 7 Back Jessica Pegula to beat Mona Barthel. 6,84 @ pinnacle (2/10) Back Jessica Pegula (+1,5 sets) to beat Mona Barthel. 3,12 @ pinnacle (4/10) These odds are weird. Mona Barthel is far too inconsistent to be 1,1-favorite here. She didn´t play any clay court game this year, the last one in July 2012. And although the statistics might say something else, she isn´t a clay courter at all, hitting the balls very tough, making both points and errors. Jessica Pegula is a young US-American player who has played nearly equal games on hard and clay court. Her clay season started at Osprey, where she lost to Beygelzimer in first quali round. But she showed herself improved at Charleston. Yesterday she has beaten highly rated Muguruza, who played very well at Indian Wells and Miami - and who I would consider to be favorite in a game against Barthel. Whatever, Barthel being favorite is okay, but definitely not at these prices. Back Anabel Medina Garrigues to beat Sorana Cirstea. 2,16 @ pinnacle (6/10) Odds should be the other way round. Both players on pretty the same level, but this is a clay court game (although the court may be faster than normal European clay courts), and Medina is by far the better clay courter, Cirstea managed to get in struggle even against Malek in the first round. So I consider Garrigues to be favorite here, although she lost 3 weeks ago in three sets to Cirstea, but on hard court. Antonio Veic vs. Alessio di Mauro under 20,5 games. 1,89 @ marathonbet (5/10) Back Antonio Veic (-4,5 games) to beat Alessio di Mauro. 1,79 @ marathonbet (5/10) Big LoL to this one. Alessio di Mauro, 35 years-old Italian dude, who had played about 660 games on clay court in his life and 10 on hard court, is playing a hard court challenger? :D What the hell? Di Mauro played his last game on hard court 6 years ago :D And I am very sure, he didn´t practise on hard court as well. He won San Luis Potosi challenger last weak, of course on clay court, and he might play at Leon just because it´s only a few miles away. Veic is nothing special, but solid, even on hard court. That should be enough here.

[amity]

Re: April 1 - April 7 ah shame i didn't back jessica like you said Guardiola! great pick though! barthel completely crumbled once she lost that first set (having been control for almost of all that first set in fairness!) but that's how it goes

[Guardiola]

Re: April 1 - April 7

Back Jessica Pegula to beat Mona Barthel. 6,84 @ pinnacle (2/10) Back Jessica Pegula (+1,5 sets) to beat Mona Barthel. 3,12 @ pinnacle (4/10) These odds are weird. Mona Barthel is far too inconsistent to be 1,1-favorite here. She didn´t play any clay court game this year, the last one in July 2012. And although the statistics might say something else, she isn´t a clay courter at all, hitting the balls very tough, making both points and errors. Jessica Pegula is a young US-American player who has played nearly equal games on hard and clay court. Her clay season started at Osprey, where she lost to Beygelzimer in first quali round. But she showed herself improved at Charleston. Yesterday she has beaten highly rated Muguruza, who played very well at Indian Wells and Miami - and who I would consider to be favorite in a game against Barthel. Whatever, Barthel being favorite is okay, but definitely not at these prices. Back Anabel Medina Garrigues to beat Sorana Cirstea. 2,16 @ pinnacle (6/10) Odds should be the other way round. Both players on pretty the same level, but this is a clay court game (although the court may be faster than normal European clay courts), and Medina is by far the better clay courter, Cirstea managed to get in struggle even against Malek in the first round. So I consider Garrigues to be favorite here, although she lost 3 weeks ago in three sets to Cirstea, but on hard court. Antonio Veic vs. Alessio di Mauro under 20,5 games. 1,89 @ marathonbet (5/10) Back Antonio Veic (-4,5 games) to beat Alessio di Mauro. 1,79 @ marathonbet (5/10) Big LoL to this one. Alessio di Mauro, 35 years-old Italian dude, who had played about 660 games on clay court in his life and 10 on hard court, is playing a hard court challenger? :D What the hell? Di Mauro played his last game on hard court 6 years ago :D And I am very sure, he didn´t practise on hard court as well. He won San Luis Potosi challenger last weak, of course on clay court, and he might play at Leon just because it´s only a few miles away. Veic is nothing special, but solid, even on hard court. That should be enough here.

Pegula d. Barthel 7-6 6-1 :cigar Medina w.o. vs. Cirstea Di Mauro d. Veic 6-3 6-1 :wall:p +19,61 today :cigar

[CzechPunter]

Re: April 1 - April 7 Back Mirjana Lucic to beat Lucie Safarova for a 1/10 stake at 3.85 with Pinnacle Just two small punts for me today. Safarova might bounce back at Charleston - or she might continue her current run of losses and poor performances. I would say that the chances are about equal, so I am more than happy to back Lucic at this price. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/lucic-vs-safarova-betting-mirjana-lucic-can-grab-a-win-over-lucie-safarova-in-charleston-20130403 Back Caroline Garcia to beat Jelena Jankovic for a 1/10 stake at 6.14 with Pinnacle This might be a long shot, but Jankovic did struggle yesterday and Garcia came really close to beating her last year in Kuala Lumpur, so this price looks a touch high to me. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/garcia-vs-jankovic-betting-caroline-garcia-to-trouble-jelena-jankovic-once-again-20130403

[Guardiola]

Re: April 1 - April 7 For me some longshots today: Back Grace Min to beat Madison Keys. 3,55 @ pinnacle (3/10) Back Grace Min (+1,5 sets) to beat Madison Keys. 1,95 @ pinnacle (4/10) Two US youngstars facing each other here, and I don´t really get these odds. Madison Keys might be the better player of those two and the ranking holds a mirror up to this (77 vs. 187). But the game is played in Charleston on clay court. While it is only Keys´ forth match on clay court in the last three years since she is a pro (and her performance against Cadantu in round No. 1 wasn´t that convincing either), Grace Min is a formidable clay court player who has played not 4 but 40 games on clay court in the last three years. And Grace Min had some decent results on clay, too. For example, she forced Schiavone into three sets at Acapulco this year. I won´t say it´s even, but I would give Grace Min at least 33%. Back Monica Puig to beat Venus Williams. 4,10 @ marathonbet (3/10) Back Monica Puig (+1,5 sets) to beat Venus Williams. 2,22 @ pinnacle (4/10) Fancy the young Puerto Rican Puig here to cause some trouble to Venus. Puig is playing here on here favorite surface, she has beaten Hlavakova in round 1 with 6-4 6-0. Her hard court season was okay, beating for example the likes o Petkovic or Mattek-Sands. Venus last game on clay court was at Roland Garros 2012, so she might need some time to get into her game on this surface. And she isn´t a clay courter as well, making to many errors. Her form isn´t that good either, she lost against Puchkova at Florianopolis, needed three sets against Date-Krunmm and didn´t attend against Stephens the next round. Puig might have a chance here. Back Silvia Soler Espinosa to beat Caroline Wozniacki. 4,45 @ marathonbet (2/10) Back Silvia Soler Espinosa (+1,5 sets) to beat Caroline Wozinacki. 2,33 @ pinnacle (4/10) These odds seem too high. Soler Espinosa has beaten Schiavone in first round, which is still an achievement on clay court. At Acapulco she managed to get to the semis, but lost there to Suarez Navarro 2-6 1-6. Soler Espinosa is a solid player, especially on clay court, and she is definetely able to beat an opponent who is not playing her best tennis. And this is why I get to this pick. I don´t fancy Wozniacki to perform very well here. It´s her first clay court game since Roland Garros 2012, she played a great tournament at Indian Wells, but struggled a lot at Miami. I think she will not improve here, that´s due to the sum of my feelings and Wozniackis earlier performances. Back Eugenie Bouchard to beat Laura Robson. 2,28 @ pinnacle (6/10) This should be at least even. Although young Bouchard is ranked only 118, she is a very solid player. Especially on clay court she can cause trouble to a lot of players, thats her favorite surface. Even against Errani she managed to force her in a ti-break at Acapulco. What Bouchard really pulls clear of Robson here is the fact that she had already played 16 games on clay court just in 2013, winning 13 of these games and losing only to Errani, Parra-Santoja and Panova, while Robson has just played a single game on clay court this year, beating Cabeza Candela in the first round. Perhaps this result is why she is considered favorite by the bookies here, but I wouldn´t overrate this performance. Because Robson wasn´t at good shape on the hard courts as well, this should be at least even and is worth a shot. Back Caroline Garcia to beat Jelena Jankovic. 6,12 @ pinnacle (2/10) Back Caroline Garcia (+1,5 sets) to beat Jelena Jankovic. 2,73 @ pinnacle (3/10) I agree with CzechPunters analysis here. Back Ana Ivanovic (-7,5 games) to crush Timea Babos. 3,08 @ pinnacle (5/10) Ivanovic is in such a good shape (not only as far as her look is considered, but also her tennis performances :p ) that she is definetly able to crush someone like Babos, who isn´t a special player. Even Johanna Larsson managed to reach this handicap against Babos. I fancy Ana here to continue her performance against Sirotkina.

[CzechPunter]

Re: April 1 - April 7 Back Czech Republic to beat Kazakhstan for a 2/10 stake at 1.96 with Pinnacle Well, I think that the Czechs should have the upper hand even given the absence of Berdych and the great record the Kazakhs have at home. Rosol and Hajek are both very solid on clay, while Stepanek is ready for the doubles and one singles match on Sunday, so three points should be fully within their range. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/czech-republic-vs-kazakhstan-betting-the-czechs-should-be-too-strong-for-the-home-team-20130404 Back Italy to beat Canada for a 2/10 stake at 2.68 with Pinnacle So much depends on Milos Raonic here that I simply have to go against the Canadians in this clash. Andreas Seppi and Fabio Fognini are very capable and should get at least two points on their own, while I also feel that the Italians should have a small edge in the doubles. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/italy-vs-canada-betting-canada-might-be-in-for-a-bit-of-trouble-against-the-italians-20130404

[Guardiola]

Re: April 1 - April 7

For me some longshots today: Back Grace Min to beat Madison Keys. 3,55 @ pinnacle (3/10) Back Grace Min (+1,5 sets) to beat Madison Keys. 1,95 @ pinnacle (4/10) Two US youngstars facing each other here, and I don´t really get these odds. Madison Keys might be the better player of those two and the ranking holds a mirror up to this (77 vs. 187). But the game is played in Charleston on clay court. While it is only Keys´ forth match on clay court in the last three years since she is a pro (and her performance against Cadantu in round No. 1 wasn´t that convincing either), Grace Min is a formidable clay court player who has played not 4 but 40 games on clay court in the last three years. And Grace Min had some decent results on clay, too. For example, she forced Schiavone into three sets at Acapulco this year. I won´t say it´s even, but I would give Grace Min at least 33%. Back Monica Puig to beat Venus Williams. 4,10 @ marathonbet (3/10) Back Monica Puig (+1,5 sets) to beat Venus Williams. 2,22 @ pinnacle (4/10) Fancy the young Puerto Rican Puig here to cause some trouble to Venus. Puig is playing here on here favorite surface, she has beaten Hlavakova in round 1 with 6-4 6-0. Her hard court season was okay, beating for example the likes o Petkovic or Mattek-Sands. Venus last game on clay court was at Roland Garros 2012, so she might need some time to get into her game on this surface. And she isn´t a clay courter as well, making to many errors. Her form isn´t that good either, she lost against Puchkova at Florianopolis, needed three sets against Date-Krunmm and didn´t attend against Stephens the next round. Puig might have a chance here. Back Silvia Soler Espinosa to beat Caroline Wozniacki. 4,45 @ marathonbet (2/10) Back Silvia Soler Espinosa (+1,5 sets) to beat Caroline Wozinacki. 2,33 @ pinnacle (4/10) These odds seem too high. Soler Espinosa has beaten Schiavone in first round, which is still an achievement on clay court. At Acapulco she managed to get to the semis, but lost there to Suarez Navarro 2-6 1-6. Soler Espinosa is a solid player, especially on clay court, and she is definetely able to beat an opponent who is not playing her best tennis. And this is why I get to this pick. I don´t fancy Wozniacki to perform very well here. It´s her first clay court game since Roland Garros 2012, she played a great tournament at Indian Wells, but struggled a lot at Miami. I think she will not improve here, that´s due to the sum of my feelings and Wozniackis earlier performances. Back Eugenie Bouchard to beat Laura Robson. 2,28 @ pinnacle (6/10) This should be at least even. Although young Bouchard is ranked only 118, she is a very solid player. Especially on clay court she can cause trouble to a lot of players, thats her favorite surface. Even against Errani she managed to force her in a ti-break at Acapulco. What Bouchard really pulls clear of Robson here is the fact that she had already played 16 games on clay court just in 2013, winning 13 of these games and losing only to Errani, Parra-Santoja and Panova, while Robson has just played a single game on clay court this year, beating Cabeza Candela in the first round. Perhaps this result is why she is considered favorite by the bookies here, but I wouldn´t overrate this performance. Because Robson wasn´t at good shape on the hard courts as well, this should be at least even and is worth a shot. Back Caroline Garcia to beat Jelena Jankovic. 6,12 @ pinnacle (2/10) Back Caroline Garcia (+1,5 sets) to beat Jelena Jankovic. 2,73 @ pinnacle (3/10) I agree with CzechPunters analysis here. Back Ana Ivanovic (-7,5 games) to crush Timea Babos. 3,08 @ pinnacle (5/10) Ivanovic is in such a good shape (not only as far as her look is considered, but also her tennis performances :p ) that she is definetly able to crush someone like Babos, who isn´t a special player. Even Johanna Larsson managed to reach this handicap against Babos. I fancy Ana here to continue her performance against Sirotkina.

-6,3 EH yesterday. Very disappointed, could have been a nice win, if Caroline Garcia had managed to win one of her match balls.

[Guardiola]

Re: April 1 - April 7 Already two picks for tomorrow Davis Cup matches: Back Mikhail Kukushkin to beat Jan Hajek. 1,97 @ pinnacle (4/10) I fancy Kukushkin to win here. Both are solid players, but nothing special at all. Although Hajek is above Kukushkin in the ranking these days, I don´t really think that there is a lot of difference in playing strengh. Hajek is a solid player. He doesn´t hit the ball tough but keeps it in game. Hajek is a clay courter and in quite a good shape. So these are facts that speak for the Czech. But I consider Kukushkin to be favorite here for quite a few reasons: It´s Davis Cup, and Kukushkin has the home advantage, knows the surroundings very well. It´s a three set game, and the playing style of Hajek is very intensive since he has to work hard with his feet. The game is played on clay court, but on indoor clay court, and indoor clay court is normally much faster than the normal one. That will fancy Kukushkin. Last but not least, Kukushkin had already beaten Hajek twice, in 2008 and 2011, but both times not on clay court. Vasek Pospisil vs. Andreas Seppi over 35,5 games. 2,02 @ marathonbet (10/10) Both odds and line are crazy in my eyes. The game is played on indoor hard court, which should be quite fast. Pospisil has a big serve and the home crowd to cheer for him. He will fight. Seppi is not in great shape to beat the Canadian in straight sets, I am sure there will be some periods in which Seppi doesn´t play top level tennis. Nearly every four setter covers this line, even 7-6 7-6 6-4 is enough. Would have seen the line on 40 games, not 35,5. Perhaps one can consider to back Pospisil here for some nice odds above 4,0, too.

[CzechPunter]

Re: April 1 - April 7 Back Fabio Fognini (+2.5 sets) to beat Milos Raonic for a 2/10 stake at 1.96 with Pinnacle Raonic might be great and everything, but I don't think that he really deserves to be priced at such short odds in this particular clash. Fabio Fognini is quite dangerous on all kinds of surfaces and I think that he will be able to capture at least one set against the Canadian today. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/fognini-vs-raonic-betting-fabio-fognini-can-trouble-milos-raonic-in-canada-20130405 Back Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (-4.5) to beat Carlos Berlocq for a 2/10 stake at 1.89 with Pinnacle Well, I think that Tsonga should be able to beat Berlocq rather easily this time around. The Argentinian will fight for every single point, but, at the end of the day, he simply doesn't have what it takes to beat the top guys. I would have the line at 5.5 games here, so I am more than happy to back Tsonga to cover a line that is a game lower than that. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/tsonga-vs-berlocq-betting-jo-wilfried-tsonga-should-be-too-strong-for-carlos-berlocq-20130405

[axbx]

Re: April 1 - April 7 Back Troicki to beat Querrey 3,3 @ Expekt Okay, they are playing on an indoor hard court but still, the odds doesn't look right to me (unless I missed something). These players are about equal in strength. Of course Querrey can serve faster, but the only thing he has is his serve. H2H stands at 2-2 with 1-0 to Querrey indoors. Both players are inconsistent so it's hard to predict the outcome, but it's still worth the bet. Back Vasek Pospisil to beat Seppi 4,3 @ MarathonBet I agree with Guardiola here. Pospisil can serve really well, so this match should be a close one. H2H is 2-2 with 5 close sets. Back Isner +2,5 sets to beat Djokovic 2,44 @ Pinnacle Isner is in poor form but he should be able to take a set from the world no.1. Djokovic had trouble with the American's serves in the past and he will have some trouble today as well. I'm playing a Parlay too @ Pinnacle sports: Odds: 2,3 Pospisil +2,5 sets: 1,595 Troicki +2,5 sets: 1,442

:hope

[Guardiola]

Re: April 1 - April 7 Some more for me today: Back Mallory Burdette (+6,5 games) to beat Serena Williams. 2,72 @ pinnacle (4/10) I was a bit surprised by Burdettes good performance against Lisicki. She was able to serve very well and not to get broken more than one or two times in a set. I definetly fancy the young American here to win at least 6 games against the big favorite Serena. She simply has to struggle yet again, and perhaps today is this day. If there is a period in the game in which Serena doesn´t move very well, makes one step less than necessary and Burdette is hitting the balls accurately, this line can be covered. Juan Monaco vs. Gilles Simon over 39 games. 2,02 @ pinnacle (4/10) Monaco against Simon in a Davis Cup tie in Argentina on clay court. Both will fight for every single point. This simply looks like 5 hours of play... Milos Raonic vs. Fabio Fognini over 35,5 games. 1,94 @ pinnacle (5/10) This line seems a bit too low, I agree with CzechPunter here. Fognini will be no push-over for Raonic. The line can be covered in nearly every four setter or even in a tight three setter. Raonic has the bigger serve, which is very important on the fast indoor hard surface, but Fognini has advantages when it comes to longer rallies. He should be able to cause some trouble to Raonic. Back Victor Troicki (+2,5 sets) to beat Sam Querrey. 1,46 @ pinnacle (10/10) Well, I considered for a long time which handicap I will take here - or even if I should take one anyway. I´ve taken the chicken one, but even 1,46 seems value here. I can´t see Querrey beat Troicki in straight sets. Both players know, that these games can win or lose the whole tie between USA and Serbia. Two "sure" points of Djokovic vs. one "sure" point of the Bryan brothers. So Troicki has to know his chances and fight here, because there is no massive gap between this players. Would be very very very surprised if this end 3:0 for an out-of-shape Querrey. Back Eugenie Bouchard to beat Jelena Jankovic. 3,25 @ marathonbet (3/10) Back Eugenie Bouchard (+1,5 sets) to beat Jelena Jankovic. 1,88 @ pinnacle (4/10) I can see Jankovic go out here. She had massive problems against players like Oudin and Garcia, at least should have gone out against Garcia. On the other hand, she bageled Pegula in the first set, but had problems in the second one. Bouchard is a young player of higher level in comparison to the ones Jankovic has faced at Charleston until now. Bouchard has played some decent stuff here, beating Laura Robson and Sam Stosur (to be fair, she took profit from Stosurs injury). Time to go out for Jankovic? I hope so. Back Oleksandr Nedovyesov to beat Kenny de Schepper. 3,00 @ bet365 (3/10). Oleksandr Nedovyesov vs Kenny de Schepper over 22,5 games. 1,91 @ marathonbet (3/10). I don´t see a massive gap between these two players. de Schepper has a big serve, but struggles in rallies. Nedovyesov also has a decent serve (but not as good as de Scheppers serve) and is perhaps a bit better in the baseline shots. Both players met on time in October 2012, and de Schepper won in three tight sets. I would have seen these odds nearly even, considering Nedovyesovs good shape. Small stakes because it´s a challenger match and in latest times I have some bad experiences on this level. I also take one pinnacle parley, inspired by axbx Troicki (+2,5 sets) + Pospisil (+2,5 sets) + Burdette (+7,5 games) = 4,16 (3/10)

[axbx]

Re: April 1 - April 7 Bouchard seems like a nice bet too.:ok I really like Fognini's playstyle, but I am not brave enough to bet against the Canadian elephant baby :lol What do you think about Monaco to bounce back against Simon? I really hate the guy, though.

[Guardiola]

Re: April 1 - April 7

Bouchard seems like a nice bet too.:ok I really like Fognini's playstyle, but I am not brave enough to bet against the Canadian elephant baby :lol What do you think about Monaco to bounce back against Simon? I really hate the guy, though.

I don´t like him either^^ Well, Monaco is definitively able to beat Simon on clay court, in Argentina. But he is not in his best shape. I took the overs, the odds for backing Monaco seem a little bit to small.

[Torque]

Re: April 1 - April 7 Back Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova to win WTA Whirlpool Monterrey Open @ 6.20 >Betfair This tournament looks wide open to me, and whilst I'm not going to back one of the big outsiders, I do think Pavlyuchenkova is a bigger price than she should be at this stage. It's probably fair to say that she hasn't had to do too much to win through her first two matches here, but she seems to be a streaky player that either goes out of tournaments early or has a good run, and with that in mind this could be a good time to back her. I think Pavlyuchenkova will have too much power for Davis in her quarter-final match, and in the semi-final she would either play Niculescu or Babos. I think it's likely she would play Niculescu, as Niculescu beat Babos recently in Brazil. Given that Pavlyuchenkova beat Niculescu when they played each other before, and also taking into account her good record in this tournament, I can see her making the final. The top seeds left in the other half of the draw are Kerber and Kirilenko, both of whom Pavlyuchenkova has beaten on hard. Overall, I think there's a good chance that Pavluchenkova walks away with the title this week.

[axbx]

Re: April 1 - April 7 Only Monaco and my parlay won. I was close enough though.

[TopJimmy]

Re: April 1 - April 7 Back Venus Williams to beat Serena Williams @ 6/1 Ladbrokes This is one of those bets which could look very silly after the match is finished, but I think there are solid reasons to consider this bet value. I laid Serena on the outright at odds on at the start of the week as looking back at her tournament record she doesn't have a fantastic record in smaller tournaments and has rarely won tournaments in consecutive weeks, and these are stats that are surely only going to worsen with age. In addition, Serena's level has been very in and out the last couple of weeks, frequently having to dig deep to find her best tennis which, to her credit, she has managed to do so far. But overall I feel she is looking physically and mentally tired, and if there is one player I think she may not dig as deeply to try and beat, it is her sister. Venus isn't the player she was, but is playing as well this week as she can these days, more than well enough to take advantage if Serena is not up for the fight. Ladbrokes are pretty much top price and you have the added bonus of being paid out if Serena retires (though this could backfire given Venus's retirement in Miami!). All in all, I don't see this being a demolition job and I think 6/1 is worth a go.

[Darek]

Re: April 1 - April 7 Maybe I don't often write my analysis here, but I read this forum quite often and I'm impressed about quality of all picks posted here. Big thanks! But after I saw yesterday's game Niculescu - Babos I'm obligated here to post my bet on Russian. Niculescu played awful yesterday, that was one of the worst games I've ever seen. Her timing was awful, legs work was really poor and because of that result of some shots looked ridiculous for me. In the other hand Babos best friend yesterday was net... She could have easily won that game in my opinion. Maybe I'm very critical in many points, expecially it's WTA but if you have seen Kerber - Wozniacki from IW there were some funny balloon play late in 2nd set...so imagine that yesterday it was most of the time like that. I have seen Russian playing this year just in Brisbane and if she will show today a half of that she will easy win vs Niculescu. Hope that CzechPunter and Atko will post some opinion about this game, as I regard them as best punters here. Pavlyuchenkova to beat Niculescu @ 1/1

[CzechPunter]

Re: April 1 - April 7 I am not sure how many times you've seen Niculescu in action, but she has one of the strangest playing styles on the tour. It works well though, so there you go. I still have that outright on her going on, so I am not going to have a match bet, but I do fancy her chances to be honest. Her playing style can frustrate Pavlyuchenkova, who can be quite hit or miss at times. Nonetheless, I wish you good luck with it, the Russian is certainly more than capable of beating her! Next time, please try to mention the bookie that is offering the odds you are quoting. :ok

[Darek]

Re: April 1 - April 7

I am not sure how many times you've seen Niculescu in action' date=' but she has one of the strangest playing styles on the tour. It works well though, so there you go.[/quote'] Thats the thing. I saw her maybe five times and all these games are in my top10 worst games ever seen :p Thanks for opinion, good luck to you too.

[valve]

Re: April 1 - April 7 Problem is Pavlyuchenkova is very similar to Babos, hit and miss and has a worse footwork than Hungarian. Against Davis in 2nd set from 3-1* deuce she hit 12UE in row to go down *3-4 0-30... then saved 4BP in that game to hold 4-4. Similar with Babos yesterday against Niculescu, at the opening of the match she made 7-8 consecutive UE. Niculescu can frustrate opponents, especially big hitters, returns everything and does that forehand slice that has a counter spin so if the opponent hasn't got a good footwork and takes the ball fairly early she'll make her way. Really liked what Suarez-navarro did to her at Paris, mixing it up all the time, but can't see one dimensional players taking out Monica here, she took care two of the already. Boring maybe, but very effective style.

[axbx]

Re: April 1 - April 7 Raonic -2,5 sets to beat Seppi 2,5 @ Paddy Power Milos hit 25 aces against a counterpuncher. It will be really hard to break him, while breaking Seppi will be much more easier. The Canadian's play has been improving a lot but people fail to notice it because of his serves. Nice value on this one. Gulbis -2,5 sets to beat Ballaret 1,8 @ Paddy Power Ballaret is a clay courter, playing at ITF level, while Gulbis can serve big and he plays comfortably on all kind of courts. He has been playing extremely well in Indian Wells, even grabbing a set against Nadal. Too much of a gap between the 2.

[CzechPunter]

Re: April 1 - April 7 Back Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (-4) to beat Juan Monaco for a 2/10 stake at 1.86 with Pinnacle Can't see much today, but I definitely fancy Tsonga against Monaco. He needs to win in order to keep the tie alive and I think that he is going to do just that by defeating Monaco in a fairly straightforward manner. The Argentinian is still well below his best right now and he has a 0-4 H2H record against Tsonga, so I am not really that convinced about his chances. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/tsonga-vs-monaco-betting-jo-wilfried-tsonga-can-keep-the-french-in-the-hunt-20130407

[axbx]

Re: April 1 - April 7 Milos decided to present Seppi with a set. Just to make my day worse... At least Gulbis won easily.