Jump to content
Announcements
** October Poker League Result : 1st avongirl, 2nd McG, 3rd Rhino_Power **
** October Naps Competition Result: 1st internetmails, 2nd Donnyflyer, 3rd vangovin, 4th Peter York. KO Cup Winner mickyftm32. Most Winners waggy: **

SATURDAY 30TH March 2013 BBOTD.


Primevil
 Share

Recommended Posts

Re: SATURDAY 30TH March 2013 BBOTD. 1.55 Doncaster Educate 1pt win @ 10/1 PaddyPower Put this horse up as one to follow this year and I think he will go very close tomorrow. He is up 8lbs for bolting up in a 16 runner handicap at York back in October but I don't think that will be enough to stop him. He has been gelded which seems to have stamped out his wayward tendencies and he comes here on the back of 2 wins. Ground tomorrow won't be a problem as he has won on heavy. Liam Jones takes the ride and he is 1 from 1 on him. Trainer is in good form and to me this horse looks open to bags of improvement. He is drawn high which is a plus as plenty of the pace in the race is going to come from the high stalls so he will them to track throughout. He is a 4 year old now and they have dominated this race in recent years winning 8 of the last 10. Only slight negative is this race has a habit of throwing up crazy results like last year for example but I think there are enough positives about Educate's chance in this race to warrant a bet.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: SATURDAY 30TH March 2013 BBOTD. 1.50 Musselburgh Conditions 2YO 5 f. DONNY ROVER(my 2yo to follow.) No prices at the moment, However ill take sp. 11lb turn around on Micks Yer Man, who is likely to be odds on, he is a very good 2yo, however I have to follow my selection. It is noticeable that he books G.Gibbons, a much stronger jockey than last weeks, and he does have a very good book of rides for a cracking meeting. Ive said DONNY ROVER will be better over the minimum trip, and could turn out to be listed class. A negative besides the FAV, it may well be over and the fav flown again, however, he has a decent draw. And there is now way he will finish 14 lens behind this FAV tomorrow. A reverse fc may be the way to go, if you dont fancy the win bet. Only 7 runners, so e/w may be an option depending on the price.:ok

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: SATURDAY 30TH March 2013 BBOTD. 17.10 Kempton: Ready @ 5/1 VC This speedy gelding caught my eye for the first time when he appeared for the first time on the All-Weather at Lingfield in November, winning in really good style. He clearly looked like a horse that has much more to offer and indeed he followed up in impressive fashion a couple of days later winning in a conditions stakes at the same track. The form works out well enough and the time figures speaking in his favour but I was yet again really impressed by the visual part of this performance in particular as it was the case in his start before as well. Both times he produced a lovely turn of foot in a way you don't get to see it too often on the All-Weather. He steps up to a mile now, a trip he should get actually if I take in to consideration how he finished his races the last two times. While he's by a speedy sire there is also a good deal of stamina on the dam side as his mother was a multiple winner over 10f on the All-Weather. So I think there is a fair chance that he'll get the trip, it should even bring out further improvement and there is way more to come anyway I feel. His current handicap mark could be lenient in my mind.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: SATURDAY 30TH March 2013 BBOTD. 1355 doncaster 1pt win educate 9/1 pp not seen since last october when he won a 16 runner handicap,finishing well from a slow start, ground is of no concern,and the trip is ideal, trainer i mohammed has had a fantastic time lateley, 6 winners from last 7 runners

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: SATURDAY 30TH March 2013 BBOTD. 4.05 Kempton A really strong conditions race. Stirring Ballad won a maiden and 3 handicaps in a row last summer, finishing off at Chester getting a good draw and run of the race but even so that was a good race, up 7lb for that effort so a mark of 96 leaves her needing to find more but clearly has more to come just depends how much. Belgian Bill and Dance and Dance and some way clear on official figures and matched themselves. Belgian Bill has fitness on his side having raced in Meydan but has shown very little. Goes well on this polytrack surface tho so a return to that will help and should go well if anywhere near his best. But I am going to take Dance and Dance who I think should have a good summer. He is a classy sort that enjoys big fields and wont want to be held up off a slow pace around here but I think they will go a decent gallop here, struggled at a much higher level last year but was a good 2nd in Diomed Stakes Group 3 at Epsom last year when fresh. Has a superb record fresh so should be a worry here and yard had a winner last week and running at a 23% strike rate so far this spring. 1pt win Dance and Dance 7/2 vcbet

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: SATURDAY 30TH March 2013 BBOTD. 15.00 Musselburgh - Tangerine Trees - Win @ 5\2 PP BOG The current favorite and top weight is heavily penalized for wins last year in this conditions race and has to concede 15 lbs to all the other runners and could be worth opposing. Tangerine Trees looks the horse most likely to present a challenge. Had a poor season last year after an excellent 2011 which included a group 1,a group 3 and a listed over 5f. Has won first time out twice in previous seasons and looks good value if back to form of 2011. Has winning form on good to soft and 5f looks to be his favored distance.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: SATURDAY 30TH March 2013 BBOTD. 2.40 Haydock - Quaddick Lake 20/1 EW Stan James BOG This is a horse I have followed a few times and while his mark is on the stiff side now, there is no way he should be 20/1 and he looks to have a very decent each way chance under the perfect conditions, especially with STD in the saddle (sounds nasty!). He was below form LTO but he did well to be 3rd the time before after being badly hampered 4 out especially considering the winner would have been placed at the festival (before U/S at the last) and the 2nd also wasnt too far off in a big handicap at Cheltenham (9l 7th). Their are pieces of form before that which give him a good chance of winning off this mark, especially as there are quite a few question marks over the form of the progressive types.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: SATURDAY 30TH March 2013 BBOTD.

3.15 Haydock:

>Betvictor.com Levy Board Handicap Chase (Class 2)(2m4f) Very competitive handicap is this it’s hard to argue against the favourite Pepite Rose, she looked a touch unlucky last time out and the yard continue to go well. This race looks perfect for her and if it stays dry it will only increase her chances. I’m not a fan of Sydney Paget or Cedre Bleu who are next in the betting so for an alternative wager I would side with Cloudy Too who is representing last years winning stable at fair odds.

Selections:

1pt Pepite Rose 5/1

Ladbrokes

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: SATURDAY 30TH March 2013 BBOTD. 3.05 Doncaster - 1pt win Eshtibaak @ 8/1 (Bet365) John Gosden holds a strong hand in this and although this horse is lightly-raced and inexperienced, he looks more than capable of winning handicaps off 93 and I reckon he's well-treated enough to take this. The draw issue is likely to be negated with all runners congregating up the centre but most of the pace seems to come from medium to high draws so wouldn't be too concerned with this one's berth in stall 20. He showed plenty of promise on debut before scoring well after a break at Nottingham. He again won after an absence at Lingfield before suffering from bad luck in the run at Kempton on his fourth start (hampered, lost place, came wide, stayed on, not much room again). That also came quickly after his Lingfield effort and was off for four more months afterwards. The race at Ascot was a mess and he had nowhere to go on the rail throughout the straight and looked to have gallons left in the tank at the finish but he had no room at all but surely would have gone close with some luck. Runs off 1lb lower today and although he drops back in trip a test over a mile can suit. He obviously goes well fresh, Paul Hanagan chose this one last week (can't ride today) and if he handles soft (slow time of maiden win suggests ground was soft at Nottingham) then he doesn't seem to have many chinks in his armour. So long as he isn't a different horse then he'll surely win races off this mark and I hope he does so today.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: SATURDAY 30TH March 2013 BBOTD. 1.55 DON LAS VERGLAS STAR @ 25/1 Boylesport BOG Richard Fahey has a fantastic record in this race, won it in 2010 and had the second in 07,08,09 and 12 and the fourth in 2011. This horse has won or been placed in 10 of 17 races on Good/Soft or worse. This horse has only run 3 times over 1m but has a win and second in those races. Last win came off only 1lb lower but claimer takes off a useful 7lb. Decent draw in 9, 25/1 at present which looks good value.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: SATURDAY 30TH March 2013 BBOTD. 6.05 Meydan: Royal Delta, 11/2 Coral, win Royal Delta is a two-time Breeders Cup winner. She won a group 3 incredibly easily lto when she made most and, when still on the bridle, she eased clear to win by 5L. That should have put her in top condition for this and she should be involved in the finish in a very competitive race. She was unlucky in this race last year. She was going well when she was badly hampered about 3f out and couldn't recover. American Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith is in the saddle.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: SATURDAY 30TH March 2013 BBOTD. 2.40 Kempton~ MARCRET~ 10/1(bet365) Marco Botti's 6yo looks a big price for this contest. He was contesting group 2 and 3 last season and ran ok after a break in the Winter Derby Trail lto when it looked like he was in need of the run. Id expect him to bang on form for this race today. 1pt win

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: SATURDAY 30TH March 2013 BBOTD. Doncaster 1.20 King of Jazz. Third in this last year off 9lb higher than today & Darren Egan claims another 3lb as well. Was an excellent third in the Victoria Cup at Ascot after that on soft ground so will handle the conditions. Lost his form after that & that's why he's coming down the weights but the best time to catch him is fresh. He was second on his first ever start in 2010, won FTO two years ago here at Donny & the third last season was also his first run. Bet. King of Jazz 1pt win @7/1 Betvictor BOG. ​Rio.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: SATURDAY 30TH March 2013 BBOTD. Planteur - Dubai World Cup - 12-1 Boylesports (BOG) - 1pt WIN Planteur is 6 years old now but has some smart form on offer such as wins over Sarafina and Rewilding, a 3rd in this race last year without a prep run and 2 close 2nd places to Bekhabad. This kind of trip is ideal and he ran well on this surface last year and has Ryan Moore on board again, one of, if not the best flat jockey in England. He has had a prep run at Lingfield and will be spot in this year, 12-1 looks rather tempting. Stall 7 should allow Moore to get a good position and drop in behind the front runners.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: SATURDAY 30TH March 2013 BBOTD. 2.30pm @ Doncaster - 'Humidor' 5/1 (PP / BOG) Followed this horse for a while and it's run some pretty good races in decent company. Last 2 runs have been in well contested events in the sun and has ran well enough. Some really good form last year too, without being good enough some of the time. Read into it's form (strong finishing 4th in the Nunthorpe for example) and it's definitely got an easier task today than some of the ones faced admirably up to now. I don't see the 6fls as a problem as is normally staying well at the end of 5. Will lack nothing form the saddle and I think this horse should be favourite today. Has to be in the firing line where it matters, 1 point win

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: SATURDAY 30TH March 2013 BBOTD. 2:25 Meydan - Secret Number - Back Has won his first 2 starts and looks like a special horse in the making. Encountered plenty of trouble in running lto when overcoming a torrid trip to beat the trouble and still get the job done. It belied his inexperience that he still won despite all the trouble and though this is harder, he could well be atop Group 1 horse very soon 1pt win @ 2/1 Hills BOG

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: SATURDAY 30TH March 2013 BBOTD. 2:20 Kempton ROBIN HOODS BAY 5/2 B365 win In sparkling form and no reason why can't win this after the run two weeks back only losing a length to Faraaj who's rated 108. Happy at the course, trip no problem and Luke Morris steers again after winning on him here at the start of the month.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: SATURDAY 30TH March 2013 BBOTD. KEMPTON 4.05 (A.W.) Belgian Bill 1pt Win @5/2 (PaddyPower - #BOG) Belgian Bill is a proven course winner (2/3) who likes the distance a lot (3/9) but failed to translate his class to Dubai last January: two very poor efforts at Meydan and he's back home again. This is a very affordable Class 4 Cond Stakes race with just a couple to worry about but just one (Dance And Dance) with no question marks on his back. He just need to step back to his normal level to win this one in my opinion and the rider, Luke Morris, is in cracking form at the moment. Price still decent for a try, I expected a 2/1 at this time of the day. Pretty concerned about George Baker stable form though.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: SATURDAY 30TH March 2013 BBOTD. 3:05 Doncaster: Hit The Jackpot 1pt win 22/1 Stan James Hit The Jackpot is interesting on debut for David O'Meara. Hit The Jackpot was running in Group races last season with credit so this represents a drop in class. That form is hard to assess back in handicap company here particularly as all his runs last year were all behind Light Heavy, yet this well bred sort has the look of a horse that could take off, and maybe this is the start. The going should not be a problem. The yard are in form, Danny Tudhope was due to take the ride last week and is replaced by a seven pound claimer David Bergin this time.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: SATURDAY 30TH March 2013 BBOTD. 4:40 Meydan Dubai Duty Free Sajjhaa at 7/1 LadbrokesA nice filly who improved a lot in her time in Dubai.She won all of her 3 starts, the last was the Jebel Hatta (Grp.1).She won 2 races over C&D and in the Balanchine (Grp.2) she broke the track record over todays course and distance.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: SATURDAY 30TH March 2013 BBOTD.

1.50 Musselburgh Conditions 2YO 5 f. DONNY ROVER(my 2yo to follow.) No prices at the moment, However ill take sp. 11lb turn around on Micks Yer Man, who is likely to be odds on, he is a very good 2yo, however I have to follow my selection. It is noticeable that he books G.Gibbons, a much stronger jockey than last weeks, and he does have a very good book of rides for a cracking meeting. Ive said DONNY ROVER will be better over the minimum trip, and could turn out to be listed class. A negative besides the FAV, it may well be over and the fav flown again, however, he has a decent draw. And there is now way he will finish 14 lens behind this FAV tomorrow. A reverse fc may be the way to go, if you dont fancy the win bet. Only 7 runners, so e/w may be an option depending on the price.:ok
NR..
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: SATURDAY 30TH March 2013 BBOTD. *Cevaro > Newton Abbot 5:40 > WIN @ 11/10 VC BOG* Hails from a powerful yard here, Nicky Henderson. Still a lightly raced animal, only found 1 too good last time out. Won in good fashion at Hereford last November, has the potential to improve a lot. 7 pound claimer on board, and looks to only have 1 danger.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: SATURDAY 30TH March 2013 BBOTD. Hayd 5.00 - Wings of Smoke - win at 6/1 bog bet365 Only 4 runners in the novice chase The front two in the market Fell and Unseated last time out and yyou've have to worry about their jumping on a track like Haydock with stiff fences. Also the better ground might count against them if the pace is a bit quicker, more likely to make mistakes Wings of Smoke 'bled' last time. That was 7/8 weeks ago..............now I don't know how long a horse needs to recover from bleeding, but I assume the trainer does ! If he's OK then he's got a great chance here......the better ground is in his favour, he goes well fresh and he stays further than todays trip so can pour it on up the long home straight and put the other's jumping into question. He's a solid jumper himself Also worth mentionning that even though he's the outsider of the field, he's the best in on official ratings !

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: SATURDAY 30TH March 2013 BBOTD. NR Selected above so a rethink gives me - 3.05pm Doncaster 'Lahaag' 9/1 (Bet365 / BOG) Horse meets a lot of trends, which I'm not big on but seem to work out more often than not in this type of race. Horse has shown form up there with the best of these, from a good draw and a trainer who will be looking to lay down a decent marker in the flat season. Should get a good tow into this with some pace around it and sees out the mile well. I think, even in as competitive a race as this, it has a better chance than the price reflects. 1 point win

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: SATURDAY 30TH March 2013 BBOTD. DUBAI DUTY FREE - IGUGU 14/1 Skybet (1pt win) Top class horse who's said to have been having hormonal problems since coming to dubai, trainer says he is in a better way now and the price is too much to turn away if he does come good.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: SATURDAY 30TH March 2013 BBOTD. 3.50 HAYDOCK NOBLE LEGEND 9/1 365. 0.5PT E/W In my book and absolute certainty e/w bet, and if he gets his way in front, they wont see him today, everything in his fav. Stable is in cracking form, track suits, ground suits. 1 Entry today.the 5lb extra wont stop him today imo, just idled with plenty left last time. 10/10 ew bet.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: SATURDAY 30TH March 2013 BBOTD.

3.50 HAYDOCK NOBLE LEGEND 9/1 365. 0.5PT E/W In my book and absolute certainty e/w bet, and if he gets his way in front, they wont see him today, everything in his fav. Stable is in cracking form, track suits, ground suits. 1 Entry today.the 5lb extra wont stop him today imo, just idled with plenty left last time. 10/10 ew bet.
EASY PEEZEEY!:ok
Link to comment
Share on other sites

17.25 - Doncaster - Rockweiller @ 12/1 Bet365 Another competitive handicap to get stuck into and i don't think that Rockweiller has shaped that badly on his 2 runs this year. Well backed on his seasonal return on the AW a few weeks ago and went okay, then ran in an amateur event at this course last week over 12f and again wasn't disgraced, probably just found the trip in heavy ground abit much. Back to 10f today which should suit, especially as all 4 wins have come over this distance. Good apprentice onboard in Darren Egan and last win came off 4lb higher. Should go well at a fair price imo

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: SATURDAY 30TH March 2013 BBOTD. Later runners;

6.05 Meydan: Royal Delta' date= 11/2 Coral, win Royal Delta is a two-time Breeders Cup winner. She won a group 3 incredibly easily lto when she made most and, when still on the bridle, she eased clear to win by 5L. That should have put her in top condition for this and she should be involved in the finish in a very competitive race. She was unlucky in this race last year. She was going well when she was badly hampered about 3f out and couldn't recover. American Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith is in the saddle.
Planteur - Dubai World Cup - 12-1 Boylesports (BOG) - 1pt WIN Planteur is 6 years old now but has some smart form on offer such as wins over Sarafina and Rewilding, a 3rd in this race last year without a prep run and 2 close 2nd places to Bekhabad. This kind of trip is ideal and he ran well on this surface last year and has Ryan Moore on board again, one of, if not the best flat jockey in England. He has had a prep run at Lingfield and will be spot in this year, 12-1 looks rather tempting. Stall 7 should allow Moore to get a good position and drop in behind the front runners.
*Cevaro > Newton Abbot 5:40 > WIN @ 11/10 VC BOG* Hails from a powerful yard here, Nicky Henderson. Still a lightly raced animal, only found 1 too good last time out. Won in good fashion at Hereford last November, has the potential to improve a lot. 7 pound claimer on board, and looks to only have 1 danger.
17.25 - Doncaster - Rockweiller @ 12/1 Bet365 Another competitive handicap to get stuck into and i don't think that Rockweiller has shaped that badly on his 2 runs this year. Well backed on his seasonal return on the AW a few weeks ago and went okay, then ran in an amateur event at this course last week over 12f and again wasn't disgraced, probably just found the trip in heavy ground abit much. Back to 10f today which should suit, especially as all 4 wins have come over this distance. Good apprentice onboard in Darren Egan and last win came off 4lb higher. Should go well at a fair price imo
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

 Share

×
×
  • Create New...