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WC > Europe Qualifiers > March 26


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Re: WC > Europe Qualifiers > March 26

Paddy power are currently 1/2 for both teams not to score in Poland v San Marino game.
Just seen it and was about to post it myself. Unbelievable price yet again. They honored the 1.44 (4/9) for basically the same bet in the San Marino-England game so hopefully they will again. Lump on I say :)
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Re: WC > Europe Qualifiers > March 26 AZERBAIJAN- PORTUGAL Goal Line under 2,5 @ 1,975 Bet365 Portuga lis a very overrated team by the bookies. Winless for the last 3 official matches - lost with Russia and late draws against Israel and Northern Ireland - and also for the last 2 friendlies - defeat against Equador and draw against Gabon - the biggest worry for this crucial match is the absence of Cristiano Ronaldo (suspended). Already without Nani, the offensive trio should be formed by Postiga as striker (normally needs 2 or 3 clear-cut chances before scoring a goal) and the wings should be responsibility of 2 out this trio: Varela (probably in the worst form of his career); Vieirinha (almost no international experience at this level) and Danny (also still looking for the best form). The problems don't end here. The defense is leaking pretty much specially in the middle where Pepe and Bruno Alves aren't able to work as a couple as they did some years back in Porto. In the midfield Moutinho is returning from injury and not 100%and Raul Meireles was with the flu in the last few days and couldn't finish practice today. The truth is that Portugal is only able to create danger through set pieces or from the arrivals of Coentrao from the back. In the previous encounter between these two national teams Portugal sweated to break the Azerbaijan resistance and wasn't able to score the opener until the second half. Truth to be told there were several chances missed and it was perhaps the last good performance Portugal was able to deliver (both Nani and CR7 were on the pitch that night).After that, Azerbaijan showed a very tight defense conceding only 2 goals in the next 5 matches. I happened to see them in Russia and I was impressed by their organized defense. Russia wasn't able to break them until almost the end of the match with a dubious penalty. For tomorrow I expect them to be very tight and defense and exploring the nervousness and anxiety of the Portuguese who later, rather than sooner, should be able to finally break them. It would probably be a very dull match and a low scoring affair. 0:1 is my call.

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Re: WC > Europe Qualifiers > March 26 4pts Montenegro vs England - Both teams to score Evs Stan James England will have to work hard to win this match and their record away in this group leaves a bit to be desired. Montenegro have some good attacking players in their side with Vucinic and Stevan Jovetic both plying their trade in Serie A and they can cause a makeshift England defence problems. Montenegro have Stefan Savic at the back and Man City fans can testify that he’s not the greatest so England should get some joy going forward too so the both teams to score looks a good bet to me. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/montenegro-vs-england-betting-both-sides-look-shaky-at-the-back-going-into-vital-qualifier-20130325

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Re: WC > Europe Qualifiers > March 26

Paddy power are currently 1/2 for both teams not to score in Poland v San Marino game.
Missed it myself but just goes to show how incompetant bookie traders can be. You would think PP would have learned from 3 days ago. Most of it is because bookies are understaffed and 1 trader will have such a large workload and be responsible for pricing too many markets so pricing doesn't get the attention it should. If you read some interviews available online from bookie insiders and ex traders you hear some real horror stories. When the 1.5 came up 1.2 was available to lay on Betfair so that got taken out by arbers straight away.
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Re: WC > Europe Qualifiers > March 26

Missed it myself but just goes to show how incompetant bookie traders can be. You would think PP would have learned from 3 days ago. Most of it is because bookies are understaffed and 1 trader will have such a large workload and be responsible for pricing too many markets so pricing doesn't get the attention it should. If you read some interviews available online from bookie insiders and ex traders you hear some real horror stories. When the 1.5 came up 1.2 was available to lay on Betfair so that got taken out by arbers straight away.
Yup, beyond belief that they made the exact same mistake as Fridays game. Still, I wont complain too much as I managed to get on both :)
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Re: WC > Europe Qualifiers > March 26 Estonia vs Andorra Correct Score 1-0 (5.2), 2-0 (5.2), 3-0 (5.6) Betfair This basically works out as between 1.66-1.75 if any of these scores come in (same wager on each). I feel that these odds are generous. Andorra haven't scored since February 2011, in a loss against Moldova. Since then they have lost 14 out of 15, the non loss was a 0-0 friendly draw with Azerbaijan. They are not as bad defensively as they used to be, noted in recent performance and also lack of "heavy losses". Estonia are not in good form and have lost their way since making the play-offs at the last big tournament. They are too far back to qualify and already lag behind strong candidates Hungary,Romania,Turkey and of course Holland. They lack quality up front, having scored a paltry one goal in 5 games so far (1-0 in Andorra). They should win this, and if recent games are to go by, it will be a low scoring win with a clean sheet, as Andorra, though improving, barely score. Also I really like Turkey vs Hungary BBTS @ evens , does any expert know why it is this price? It seems too high to me...

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Re: WC > Europe Qualifiers > March 26 4pts Serbia to beat Scotland to nil 7/5 Ladbrokes Scotland’s big problem for a while has been scoring goals and with no Steven Fletcher in this game it wouldn’t be a surprise were they to struggle in that area of the field here too. Serbia is a tough place to go. It is hostile and not easy to control a game and while they’re not the side they were before the split they have enough quality in their side to win this and win it without conceding. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/serbia-vs-scotland-betting-serbia-can-see-off-scotland-without-conceding-in-world-cup-qualifier-20130325

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Re: WC > Europe Qualifiers > March 26 [h=2]Re: WC > Europe Qualifiers > March 26[/h]Germany vs Kazakhstan ​Germany will undoubtedly win this and it's just a question of by how many. In qualification for Euro 2012 Germany played Kazakhstan winning 3-0 away and 4-0 at home. Germany won 3-0 away to Kazakhstan in the last round and I would not be surprised to see them exactly match the previous tournament result. Germany -2 is 1.33 (1/3) with Boylesports for the match. The odds are generous compared to other bookmakers, PP for example are 1.22 which is probably about right so there is a bit of value in the price. Germany -1 is 1.14 (1/7) with skybet and the next best I can find is 1.08. Austria beat Kazakhstan 4-0 on their last away match and I really can't see Germany scoring any less than three and in all likelihood they will score more. Germany -2 1.33 (1/3) Boylesports 10/10 Germany -1 1.14 (1/7) Skybet 10/10

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Re: WC > Europe Qualifiers > March 26 5pts Croatia to beat Wales 8/11 Bet365 Wales picked up a much needed win over Scotland on Friday night but I think they’ll have their work cut out in this match. Croatia’s attacking options are full of quality and they are backed up by some of the best midfielders in the world. If there is a weakness it comes defensively but I don’t see that being a big enough weakness to deny them the win in this match. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/wales-vs-croatia-betting-croatia-can-end-wales-slim-qualification-hopes-in-swansea-20130325

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Re: WC > Europe Qualifiers > March 26 4pts Republic of Ireland to beat Austria 6/5 Boylesports The runner up spot in this group is between these two and Sweden so it is imperative for both that they win this, or at least avoid defeat in Austria’s case given that they are the away side here. Ireland have to impose themselves on the game and go on and win it and although it isn’t ideal that Keane misses out here I still think there’s enough creativity in Ireland’s side to create a couple of good chances and I think the odds against on them taking one is good value. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/republic-of-ireland-vs-austria-betting-republic-of-ireland-can-prevail-in-must-win-clash-20130326

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Re: WC > Europe Qualifiers > March 26 3pts Israel to beat Northern Ireland 7/5 Paddy Power Northern Ireland are a poor side at the minute and with Israel full of goals at the minute and plenty of confidence behind them this could be a long night for the boys in green. One thing which might stem Israel is the soggy wicket but even then I still think they will have too much for Northern Ireland who aren’t helped by suspension to a couple of key players. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/northern-ireland-vs-israel-betting-israel-should-have-too-much-for-northern-irish-in-belfast-20130326

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Re: WC > Europe Qualifiers > March 26 [h=2]WC > Europe Qualifiers > March 26[/h]Poland vs San Marino Both teams to score no is 1.2 (1/5) currently with William Hill. This has been done to death but the 1.2 is an excellent price when the true odds should be much lower. San Marino are not going to score away from home especially against half decent opposition. It's not the 1.5 (1/2) Paddypower offered for all of 15 minutes but it is still value in my opinion. Both teams to score No 1.2 (1/5) William Hill 10/10

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Re: WC > Europe Qualifiers > March 26 Northern Ireland vs Israel Israel 0 (AH) @ 1.71 (188bet) I think Israel look a very generous price here considering Northern Ireland are a weak side and could only draw against Luxembourg and Azerbaijan at home. With the draw on side this instinctively looks good value, I regard Israel as being signficantly stronger than their opposition in this game, more so than the odds suggest.

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Re: WC > Europe Qualifiers > March 26

Northern Ireland vs Israel Israel 0 (AH) @ 1.71 (188bet) I think Israel look a very generous price here considering Northern Ireland are a weak side and could only draw against Luxembourg and Azerbaijan at home. With the draw on side this instinctively looks good value, I regard Israel as being signficantly stronger than their opposition in this game, more so than the odds suggest.
I agree with the Israel call especially with the added draw cover, Chris Baird will be suspended for the match after the game against Russia was postponed while the important Hemed will be missing for Israel which is a blow as he provides a good deal of their attacking threat, has a good record at International level, and is currently the 2nd highest scorer in the qualifiers. I'm not overly sure of the quality in depth of the Israel side in attacking areas Eden Ben Basat scored against Portugal and recently signed for Toulouse on a 4 and a half year deal, I would presume he now becomes the main attacking threat. There don't seem to be any concerns over the pitch after the weekends postponement, N.I manager Michael O'Neill is certain there will be no problems with the pitch "I was at the pitch this morning, it's not wet and it's not sticky. In fact it's nice and dry and it's as good as it was before the snow was on it." If you want to look from a statistical point of view it doesn't look good for N.I, the only side they have beaten since the start of 2011 (18 matches) is the Faroe Islands and with Israel having a bit of momentum after the weekend 1.7 DNB looks a good price, I would say 1.6 would be about right. Israel DNB - 1.7 - ladbrokes - 5 Points
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Re: WC > Europe Qualifiers > March 26 Poland - San Marino own goal scored? yes @6 with bet365 I think that it's a good price and worth a bet. Last time Poland played San Marino at home it ended 10-0, with one of the doals being scored by a San Marino player. Today Poland will ba raring to go after the loss to the Ukraine, and with no pressure from the public they will score a few. The WQ is virtually lost and we tend to play better when everything is lost (sic!). Odds at 5/1 are too good to ignore

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Re: WC > Europe Qualifiers > March 26

4pts Montenegro vs England - Both teams to score Evs Stan James England will have to work hard to win this match and their record away in this group leaves a bit to be desired. Montenegro have some good attacking players in their side with Vucinic and Stevan Jovetic both plying their trade in Serie A and they can cause a makeshift England defence problems. Montenegro have Stefan Savic at the back and Man City fans can testify that he’s not the greatest so England should get some joy going forward too so the both teams to score looks a good bet to me. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/montenegro-vs-england-betting-both-sides-look-shaky-at-the-back-going-into-vital-qualifier-20130325
I would class this alot higher than 4 points. Because having watched Vucinic and Jovetic alot this year they will cause Smalling and Lescott no end of problems. Smalling and Lescott non-starters this year and have barely played center back. Not much in front of them either to protect this 8 points for me on this :-)
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Re: WC > Europe Qualifiers > March 26

Denmark-Bulgaria More goals 2nd half.It's an obvious bet.Bulgaria will sit back trying not to concede as it is of great importance in this match.They know that if they draw they will be still 3 points above Denmark.Denmark will try to win for sure,but i doubt they will attack with 11 players.Before we beat 6:0 Malta our goal difference was 4:3 while Denmark's was 2:4.This suggest taht both teams keep it tight at the back trying not to concede.The reverse fixture ended 1:1 and we failed to win due to a red card in the 1st half.The game was full of crosses without real dangerous situations.Denmark bet 0:3 Czech Republic couple of days ago scoring all the three goals during the 2nd half.We netted 6 times 4 of them in the 2nd period.Our coach Lyuboslav Penev said that we are travelling to Denmark only to get the 3 points but i am sure that they will be happy to take a point and run.We will rely on counter-attacks for sure(Tonev,Popov,g.Milanov are all vey fast players who will tear apart Denmark's slow defenders if they are given a chance),playing defensively.Denmark will hold the ball triyng to hit from distance.Dennis Rommedahl will take place in the starting line-up instead of nicolai jorgensen which will provide much more experience but lack of speed too(he is almost 35..)Kvist will be replaced by Stockholm.Michael Krohn Dehli,Daniel Agger and Cristian Eriksen missed yesterday's training session.The last one is out due to a fatigue,but it is possible the three absences to be a strategy move.Fulham's RB Manolev will replace Minev who is banned in our camp.Denmark have never beat us at home which fact is not of grat importane becaouse of the generations have changed(Berbatov,Martin Petrov,Stilyian Petrov etc)but is for the statistic.
Would like to mention that the Bulgarian defenders lost the battle in the air against Danish forwards in Sofia. Cornelius, Agger and Kjær (scored by head against the Czechs) might do the job. Coach Penev pointed out that the last 6 meetings with Denmark ended in a draw and that is what he is looking for. Denmark only lost 1 of 34 WQ and I think the result will be 1-0. But draw will be OK. With 1 match in hand acc. to Bulgaria and with 5 of the 6 absolutely most difficult matches in the group completed…I’ll look for a nice odds on Denmark to qualfy. GL.
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Re: WC > Europe Qualifiers > March 26

4pts Republic of Ireland to beat Austria 6/5 Boylesports The runner up spot in this group is between these two and Sweden so it is imperative for both that they win this, or at least avoid defeat in Austria’s case given that they are the away side here. Ireland have to impose themselves on the game and go on and win it and although it isn’t ideal that Keane misses out here I still think there’s enough creativity in Ireland’s side to create a couple of good chances and I think the odds against on them taking one is good value. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/republic-of-ireland-vs-austria-betting-republic-of-ireland-can-prevail-in-must-win-clash-20130326
Would advice not to build anything on the draw with Sweden. Sweden = disaster. Played one of their worst matches ever. Zlatan: Absent most of the match. Coach Hamren did abolutely nothing to try to change the game.
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Re: WC > Europe Qualifiers > March 26

WC > Europe Qualifiers > March 26 Poland vs San Marino Both teams to score no is 1.2 (1/5) currently with William Hill. This has been done to death but the 1.2 is an excellent price when the true odds should be much lower. San Marino are not going to score away from home especially against half decent opposition. It's not the 1.5 (1/2) Paddypower offered for all of 15 minutes but it is still value in my opinion. Both teams to score No 1.2 (1/5) William Hill 10/10
Poland to win to nil is now 1.28 (2/7) Boylesports. Crazy price
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Re: WC > Europe Qualifiers > March 26

I would class this alot higher than 4 points. Because having watched Vucinic and Jovetic alot this year they will cause Smalling and Lescott no end of problems. Smalling and Lescott non-starters this year and have barely played center back. Not much in front of them either to protect this 8 points for me on this :-)
I think it says alot about the selection policy within the English game that we have Smalling (who has started less than 10 games in the PL this season, hardly ever at CB) and Lescott (who has been way down the pecking order at City at times this season), ahead of other players who play reguarly at their clubs. Lets be honest England have hardly impressed so far, 3 whoppings against the minnows of San Marino (twice) and Moldova (both teams that Gillingham could probably beat!) and unconvincing draws against Ukraine and Poland who are hardly world-beaters. It says a lot about the England team that you hardly ever see patriotic posts on here anymore about how well England are going to do as confidence and expectation is very low. I don't think Montenegro have much going for them other than the front two but that might well be good enough for the draw against what is only a half decent International side. Montenegro usually play very attacking so they can play the ball quickly to the main talents in the team..both to score and over 2.5 looks likely to me.
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Re: WC > Europe Qualifiers > March 26

What do you guys think of this bet? Can anyone see any holes here ? In particular why Croatia won't go to Wales with their talented squad and take 3 points. Maybe still celebrating the win over Serbia.... Thanks in advance
maybe, but don't think so, was afraid of it, have to admit, but soon that game was finished coach Stimac said" Serbia is past, now we concetrate on Wales", players had day off after Serbia game, some of them admitted they were dead tired after the game,Mandzukic: "Frankly, none of the games in my life exhausted me like this one, and I played a lot of difficult ones." " I must emphasize that we are the better team and epilogue against Wales most dependens on us. If we give my best and play the way we know, then we will win. If we are not on our usual level, then we can get into trouble. So, it's all up to us, despite our respect for Wales. I do not know yet how we are going to play, but it is clear that we have to be careful especially on Bale. I do not know if he's right next to Messi and Ronaldo, but I'm convinced he's a terrific player that can create problems." And he added, like many other players that victory against Serbia will mean nothing if they don't win Wales. I'm optimistic about tonight, well I always am, when it comes to our NT, lol, won't be easy, Wales is on up after winning in Scotland, and honestly we did not play that good against Serbia, mistakes in their defense (Kolarov) for first goal, and then it was easier to play, concidering all the non football preasure, they have Bale, he can make me have nightmares, (hope not) we have Mandzukic, Jelavic, speedy Olic, Modrić is getting better... maybe both teams to score, and 1:2 FT, oh, that will make me happy.....
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Re: WC > Europe Qualifiers > March 26

Would advice not to build anything on the draw with Sweden. Sweden = disaster. Played one of their worst matches ever. Zlatan: Absent most of the match. Coach Hamren did abolutely nothing to try to change the game.
True that. Maybe not one of our worst games ever, but we definitely lacked creativity and didn't give ireland very much to do. The draw is of course a good result for Ireland, but it was more on behalf of sweden being bad than the other way around. Austria might very well cause Ireland some trouble tonight.
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Re: WC > Europe Qualifiers > March 26 Talking about Serbia Scotland there is statemant from Novi Sad fans: ​"The match in Zagreb, was just drop that spilled a full glass of discontent due to years of systematic destruction of football, as a club, and a NT from the various 'sport people' said a statement Vojvodina fans at the stadium which will host Scotland". They are agains president of Serbian FA Karadzic, and there will be arond 6ooo people and about 1200 are Scotish. Talking about Scotish, always knew there is a reason why I like them, they decided to clean the pitch, brilliant, watch:

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Re: WC > Europe Qualifiers > March 26

What do you guys think of this bet? Can anyone see any holes here ? In particular why Croatia won't go to Wales with their talented squad and take 3 points. Maybe still celebrating the win over Serbia.... Thanks in advance
Croatia will play with two changes comparing match with Serbia. Simunic and Kranjcar are out and their replacements are Lovren and Vida (Sammir). Serbia-Scotland At 17:00 (London time) delegate will decide if match will be played because of bad condition of field.
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Re: WC > Europe Qualifiers > March 26 I was giving a fast look to todays matches and i realised something? Why Austria has the odd 3.40 and why does Wales have the odd 2.20 when Austria is at their best form , scoring , and play absolute amazing away . I thing this i a bookmaking trick , to make us loose but i predict Austria to win or at least x2 DoubleChance @ 1.60

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Re: WC > Europe Qualifiers > March 26

What do you guys think of this bet? Wales v Croatia - Croatia -1AH Belgium v Macedonia - Belgium - 1AH Croatia and Belgium are equal on points and both want to finish first so gunning for 3 points each here. If Belgium beat Macedonia away they surely will do it at home. I was able to get Belgium -1 AH for 2.30 @ BetVictor at the weekend but imagine it will be nowhere near that here. Overall that game was a must win for Macedonia and banking that their heads will be down now seeing chances for qualification are slim. In the other match, Croatia should be able to beat a young welsh team but I am less confident about this one though. Belgium won 0-2 away to Wales so that's a positive sign as I see the 2 being of similar quality. haven't checked prices yet but if the combined price is too low i am thing of throwing in Germany at home to Kazakhstan on some sort of handicap. They won there 3-0 on the weekend and now face them in front of their own fans. Should be a demolition job. Can anyone see any holes here ? In particular why Croatia won't go to Wales with their talented squad and take 3 points. Maybe still celebrating the win over Serbia.... Thanks in advance
My instincts are saying draw with Wales and Croatia tonight. I was at the Wales Scotland game on Friday and even though Scotland were incredibily poor for long spells, I also felt Wales looked very technically proficient. If Bale is fitter than he was on Friday, then i'd expect him to be a danger, as normal. Also with Bellamy looking sharp, there is another threat. Their defence is as shaky as ever though, weighing it all up I feel score draw might be the outcome.
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Re: WC > Europe Qualifiers > March 26

My instincts are saying draw with Wales and Croatia tonight. I was at the Wales Scotland game on Friday and even though Scotland were incredibily poor for long spells' date=' I also felt Wales looked very technically proficient. If Bale is fitter than he was on Friday, then i'd expect him to be a danger, as normal. Also with Bellamy looking sharp, there is another threat. Their defence is as shaky as ever though, weighing it all up I feel score draw might be the outcome.[/quote'] The thing is, Wales really need to win to stand any chance at all of qualifying. And if they press Croatia, Croatia are quite capable of murdering a dodgy Wales defence on the break. On the other hand, Croatia might go too defensive and be happy with a draw, which might give Wales more of a chance. Although Wales have improved, Croatia must surely be favourites to win the game with their ability.
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