Malaysian Grand Prix

[meatman]

Webber pole position @ 6/1 Ladbrokes 1.5pts ew 1/5 odds I have looked at the forecast for qualifying and there seems about a 50% chance of rain which could of course lead to all sorts of weird placings. Overall, I’m reluctant to bet on qualifying for this season but there is one bet I just cant get away from and would regret not taking it if he landed pole. Its clear to me that in dry conditions the Red Bull is the fastest car over 1 lap and I think this is a straight fight out between Vetterl and Webber here. Vettel will more often than not beat his Australian team-mate but this is a track Webber likes, so I would say there is more of a chance him getting pole here. Amazingly, he has only qualified outside of the top 6 once in the last 9 meetings here in Sepang and has often finished in strong points positions too. Basically, what’s clear is that this is a circuit he likes and will be comfortable on. @ odds of 6/1 I’m willing to take an ew shot to nothing because I just don’t see him being out of the top 3 on the grid as long as Q3 isn’t badly affected by rain. Grosjean race win @ 28/1 Betvictor 1pt ew 1/4 odds (bet refunded if DNF) Grosjean top 6 finish @ 2.50 Bwin 4pts Its clear that the Lotus is the best race car right now and nothing much will have changed in the space of a week. It can look after its tyres really well and that will be essential around a place like Sepang, which is renowned for high degradation. Ultimately, I expect Raikkonen to win this race and I will probably back him after qualifying when his price should be better if the Red Bulls land on the front row as I think they will. But I’m also going to take an ew shot on Grosjean because I think these odds are just too big. Ok, Kimi is as better driver etc but the Frenchman is in close to the same car yet his price is waaaaaaayyy higher. I’m not sure why he didn’t impress more in Australia but he has looked more on the pace this weekend so far in Sepang. I know that Kimi has a couple of extra technical upgrades on his machine but it shouldn’t generate that much of a gap. I’d expect him to qualify about 5-8th which would be a solid position. With such a good race car under his wing then there’s no reason why Grosjean cant compete for the podium or even a race win if things fell into his hands. Sutil points finish @ 1.85 Bwin 5pts & top 6 finish @ 3.75 SJ 2pts Di Resta points finish @ 1.85 Bwin 5pts & top 6 finish @ 3.75 SJ 2pts Force India look to have about the 5th best car on the grid at the moment and seem to have a really solid race pace. They have looked like a consistent top 10 team so far in practice this weekend and again this is a circuit which should suit them. They are another car which seems relatively easy on its tyres when in comparison to other outfits such as Mercedes. Unless they fall foul to a crash or unlucky mechanical problems then I don’t see either of their drivers out of the top 10. There’s a chance they could push for top 6 spots as well. Sutil would have finished top 6 in Melbourne had they not had him use his soft tyres for too many laps at the end. I don’t expect any special qualifying display by Force India but come the actual race they should be able to do fairly well again. Vergne points finish @ 3.25 Boylesports 2pts Ricciardo points finish @ 3.50 Boylesports 2pts These couple of bets are a bit of an outshot but I think they have a chance. The Toro Rosso’s aren’t the sort of team most people will expect to go well, but I think they might have more pace up their sleeves than anticipated. Both drivers had relatively good lap times during the race last weekend where Vergne finished 12th (only a couple of seconds out of the points) and Ricciardo retired. Vergne actually set the 2nd fastest lap of the whole race last weekend which cant be no fluke. Both cars have been working on their long term race set up in practice so far this weekend so they may be falsely down the timesheets at the moment. I don’t expect either to qualify in the top 10 but over the course of the full race I think both have a sniff at the top 10. McLaren and Williams look really poor at the moment, whilst Sauber seem nothing special so they will definitely be competitive

[Ben H]

Along some of the same reasoning as your first bet.... 3pts, M.Webber to qualify on the front row, 11/10, SkyBet Webber certainly does have good form on this track, and although they were having problems with the tyre degradation again in Friday practice, Red Bull still showed good initial pace, and they took the front row in Melbourne with Webber second so taking odds against on him doing that again, even he gets edged by Seb Vet

[BillyHills]

Re: Malaysian Grand Prix

Malaysian GP It looks a three horse race this week with Vettel and the two Ferraris; Riakkonen is too far back in tenth I think to be able to win the race unless the weather interrupts things again. I suppose you have to think that Massa will yield to Alonso if it comes to it so he’s the obvious choice at the odds but I wouldn’t put it past Massa to grab a podium place in his present mood. I always like to put one up for a points finish outside of the eleven odds on chances and Niko Hulkenberg will do for me this week who starts twelfth and has looked steady so far this weekend. Selections: 2pts Fernando Alonso 9/4

>Betfred 2pts Felipe Massa Podium Finish 13/8 >Paddy Power 2pts Niko Hulkenberg Points Finish 11/8 Coral

Full Preview; http://www.punterslounge.com/formula-one-betting-ferrari-look-strong-and-worth-following-in-malaysian-grand-prix-20130324

[Ben H]

Could well be mixed conditions tomorrow.... Have gone for that Hulkenburg points bet, and added: 2pts, N.Hulkenburg to finish in the top 6, 5.75, bwin The Sauber has shown good pace on longer runs in the dry, and Hulkenburg himself has shown well in changing conditions, most recently in Brazil last year. A race that incorporates both could play to his and Saubers strengths. 2pts, Lay S.Vettel to finish on the podium, 1.58, Betfair If it stays dry Red Bull were having a bad time at making the tyres last in the heat in Friday practice, and there are cars that seemed to be doing longer stints and could save a stop in the Mercedes and Ferrari behind Vettel. If it rains at some point it could be heavy monsoon rain and cars could get caught on slicks etc so still happy to be laying at odds on!

[Ben H]

And one more.... 2pts, J.E.Vergne to beat D.Riccardo, 2.4, bwin JEV is 4 places behind Riccardo in 17th but often raced well from low down last season and was very impressive on last years Malaysian race in the transitory conditions between wet and dry, so this could be where he has a chance to get ahead of his teammate.

[meatman]

Re: Malaysian Grand Prix Unlucky on Alonso BH. I actually think he would've won if he'd survived the whole race. In reality both RB and Merc struggled with their tyres and Alonso is always worth a good 20 seconds + on Massa which would''ve been race winning time..... Loss for me. The Force India pit stop **** ups cost me dearly. I'm convinced both would've been in the points otherwise. They showed a good pace until this happened. So annoyed about that, but maybe put too many eggs in their basket