March 18 - March 31

[homunculus]

Re: March 18 - March 31 Gasquet to bt Berdych @3.26 Pinnacle (3/10) The price is just unbelievable. Considering that in all their 8 previous meetings (H2H 4-4) Gasquet's price was around 2.30 - 2.90 (except 2007 Tokyo where he was a 1.60ish fav), one wonders what makes the bookies to believe Tomas is going to win this match. The fact is, that he massacred Sam Querrey yesterday, but Sam played really, really poor, not believing he could ever win this and was making stupid errors. Tomas only slightly improved his game when compared to disasters against Gimeno-Traver and Falla, but his forehand unforceds remained as horrible as throughout the whole Miami tournament. On the other hand, Gasquet had good win over Mugro, who was firing aces all over, but thanks to his mental unstability he could not deliver after winning the first set. IMO Tomas is even bigger choker than Mugro, he is not playing in good shape here, and this price is a must.

[Torque]

Re: March 18 - March 31 Back Jelena Jankovic to win WTA Sony Open Tennis @ 90.00 >Betfair I've had a small amount matched at this price, which I think offers some value. Jankovic had a bit of a slow start to the season, before winning the title in Bogota on clay, which should have boosted her confidence. She then lost her first match in Indian Wells to Kuznetsova, but I think that's fair enough as she was changing surfaces and might not have been fully recovered from her exploits in Colombia. She looks to have done well so far in this tournament, and beating Petrova and Cirstea in straight sets suggests to me that she might be returning to the form she was in a few years ago. Her next match here is against Vinci, and although Vinci has got the better of her in their most recent meetings, I think Jankovic is playing better now than she was then. Sharapova would probably be Jankovic's opponent if she reaches the semi-final, but she has played a lot of tennis recently. If Jankovic is able to get to the final, Serena Williams or Agnieszka Radwanska would be waiting. I'm still not convinced about how fit Williams is, and Radwanska has struggled to find her best form in this tournament. As I mentioned, the stake is small, but I think this is worth a shot.

[slider24]

Re: March 18 - March 31 Le Gosier - Gonzalo Lama to beat Matthias Bachinger @ 6/1 BET 365 Strength (5/10) Bit of a long shot I suppose but definately feel there is a possibilty of an upset. Bachinger has been high-rolling in the big events recently, not really doing much but alot of travelling, and now he comes back to down to earth to the Challenger circuit just before the clay season begins Europe. You have to wonder if after his defeat to Smyzcek in Miami whether or not he's just mentally wrote off the hard court season. Last year he didn't even play a tournament after Miami - preferring to have a couple of weeks off after to prepare for Casablanca, so it's not as if he's defending anything. The conditions are also very tough; extremely hot and humid, and windy(Lacko retired with sunstroke). These sort of elements probably suit Lama down to the ground, being a clay grinder from Chile. He's had two matches here so he's used to the surface and conditions, and he's also a very talented player. The reason he's so big of course is that he rarely plays on hard but he did take Bruges-Davi to a tie-break a year ago on the surface and he looks to be a player that wants to make his mark on all surfaces (along with compatriot Garin). Worth a shot. :hope

[amity]

Re: March 18 - March 31

Simon to beat Haas @ 2.72 (4/10 @ Pinnacle) Over 23.5 games 2.23 @ Pinnacle (9/10) I'm not really sure who'll win this match up. But the value is definitely on Simon's side, odds should be far more to evens than it is right now. One thing of what I am really confident, is that this is going to be a marathon game. Haas is obviously in heaven right now after his dream win over Djokovic at this age. Surely he played very well against Nole, but Djokovic was really, really off his game last night. Haas seems to fire himself up more into full focus when playing the top dogs, but on the flip side he tends to throw in a period in which he makes errors against others. Resulting in unnecessary tiebreaks or third sets. Simon has a habit of playing a lot of 3 setters as well. But he sure looks quite good at the moment and I think his defensive game yesterday against Tipsarevic was quite on par and he could really frustrate the German like he did with Janko. For me this over looks absolutely great and I'm also taking Simon on medium-small stakes.

I didn't see Simon vs Tipsy but was both apalled and impressed with him against Paire a couple of weeks back, in that both him and Paire were shockingly poor in that match, dropping their serves left, right and centre - at one stage there was five breaks of serve in a row! That said, Simon hung in there impressively, saving a couple of matchpoints and not throwing the towel in and eventually winning the match, even when he was playing way way below his normal level, and for that i applaud him It seems like his level has improved since then, and yes the one thing in Simon's favour is the tendency for players who beat the top seed unexpectedly (like Rosol vs Nadal last year) having a nightmare in the next match, Haas however is too much of a pro to let that happen I would still think Haas will have too much for Simon, even in his elated state, my inclination is to wait until the game has started and perhaps bet in running...

[axbx]

Re: March 18 - March 31 Cilic +4,5 games against Murray 2,30 @ MarathonBet, Over 20,5 games 2,0 @ Ladbrokes, 1st set winner: Cilic 4,58 @ Pinnacle The prices are nice considering how good Cilic has been playing. I think it will be a close encounter, so Cilic +4,5 games seems good value, and even in a 2-setter the match should go over. They played 2 matches at Masters level, and both of them went over. Head-to-head in first set is 4-4 in their 8 matches, and 3-2 to Cilic in their last 5.

[amity]

Re: March 18 - March 31 I watched Cilic's match against Tsonga and he served very well for much of the match but he threw in two absolutely shocking service games in the second set, one which he lost and the other which he struggled through more due to Tsonga not taking his chances than anything else if he does the same against Murray, we could see a 7-5, 6-3 or a 6-4, 6-3 outcome to Murray I agree with you that Cilic is usually strong in the opening set, so he should keep it close, but whether he's good enough to stay within 5 games of Murray overall, I can't say, it's a close one to call

[CzechPunter]

Re: March 18 - March 31 Back Jelena Jankovic (+1.5 sets) to beat Maria Sharapova for a 1.5/10 stake at 3.00 with Pinnacle Back Jelena Jankovic to beat Maria Sharapova for a 0.5/10 stake at 6.54 with Pinnacle Well, I certainly wasn't impressed by what I saw from Maria Sharapova yesterday. The statistics, which include 14 double faults, are telling the truth about her performance and I wouldn't be surprised by seeing her struggle against Jankovic as well. Jankovic obviously isn't in the same class quality-wise, but she is playing quite solidly at the moment and has enough power in her shots to put Sharapova under pressure. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/jankovic-vs-sharapova-betting-jelena-jankovic-to-trouble-the-world-s-number-two-in-miami-20130328 Back Agnieszka Radwanska (+1.5 sets) to beat Serena Williams for a 1.5/10 stake at 2.99 with Pinnacle Back Agnieszka Radwanska to beat Serena Williams for a 0.5/10 stake at 6.50 with Pinnacle Both ladies have already had to go through a lot in Miami and I think that Radwanska has every chance of taking at least a set against Williams today. She will like the conditions in the night session and could put her positive approach to the game (from what I have seen, she is coming to the net quite often these days) to good effect today. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/radwanska-vs-williams-betting-agnieszka-radwanska-might-have-a-chance-against-serena-williams-20130328

[axbx]

Re: March 18 - March 31 amity: My best bet is Cilic winning the first set, the odds are very nice, and based on statistics and current form he really has a chance to take it. Over seems a nice bet too, as for Cilic -4,5 games I am not sure, but the odds are too good for me to skip. Tommy Haas to beat David Ferrer 2,7 @ MarathonBet I'm impressed with Tommy's serves these days. 2 of the best return players in the world couldn't do anything with the german's serves. Ferrer's return games are good as well, but as I said even Djokovic, and Simon struggled on return. Ferrer had a difficult time against Melzer. He played with a lot of unforced errors, and struggled on serve, so Haas should be able to break him a few times.

[slider24]

Re: March 18 - March 31

Gasquet to bt Berdych @3.26 Pinnacle (3/10) The price is just unbelievable. Considering that in all their 8 previous meetings (H2H 4-4) Gasquet's price was around 2.30 - 2.90 (except 2007 Tokyo where he was a 1.60ish fav), one wonders what makes the bookies to believe Tomas is going to win this match. The fact is, that he massacred Sam Querrey yesterday, but Sam played really, really poor, not believing he could ever win this and was making stupid errors. Tomas only slightly improved his game when compared to disasters against Gimeno-Traver and Falla, but his forehand unforceds remained as horrible as throughout the whole Miami tournament. On the other hand, Gasquet had good win over Mugro, who was firing aces all over, but thanks to his mental unstability he could not deliver after winning the first set. IMO Tomas is even bigger choker than Mugro, he is not playing in good shape here, and this price is a must.

Great pick :ok

[WinningTipster]

Re: March 18 - March 31 1 PICKS FOR WTA MIAMI: S. WILLIAMS TO DEFEAT SHARAPOVA @ 1.33 on pinnaclesports The odds should be probably a little higher but still... Sharapova looks to be just lost on the court when playing Serena, no idea how to defeat her with Serena defending so well and attacking very well also.

[CzechPunter]

Re: March 18 - March 31 Back David Ferrer (-3) to beat Tommy Haas for a 2/10 stake at 1.97 with Pinnacle Awful couple of days for me, that's for sure. Anyway, I think that Haas really will be there for the taking today. Djokovic and Simon weren't able to do much against the German, but I think that Ferrer will, especially if he starts where he has finished in the match against Melzer. He is hitting the ball well and is improving with every single match, so I fancy him to stop the German's impressive run in the semis. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/ferrer-vs-haas-betting-david-ferrer-to-stop-the-german-s-impressive-run-20130329 Back Dudi Sela to beat Lukas Rosol for a 2/10 stake at 2.25 with Bet365 Not sure whether Rosol really deserves to be such a favourite in this match-up. Dudi Sela will hang in there and that is something that Rosol, who is capable of self-destructing with plenty of unforced errors, simply isn't going to like too much. Sela has beaten quite a few big hitters in recent weeks, so I fancy him to beat the Czech today. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/sela-vs-rosol-betting-dudi-sela-might-be-worth-a-punt-against-the-czech-20130329

[axbx]

Re: March 18 - March 31 Dimitrov/Nielsen to beat Fyrstenberg M./Matkowski 2,5 @ Paddy Power It's a pretty even matchup, so I would take any odds above evens. Value bet. Gasquet to win the first set against Murray 3,5 @ Blue Square Okay, I will try again :) Cilic had his chances being up a break 2 times in the first set, but he served awfully in the whole match. Gasquet has been serving great in Miami, firing aces, so let's hope he will keep it up tomorrow. Head-to-head (1st set) is 5-2 to Gasquet.

[four-leaf]

Re: March 18 - March 31

Back David Ferrer (-3) to beat Tommy Haas for a 2/10 stake at 1.97 with Pinnacle Awful couple of days for me, that's for sure. Anyway, I think that Haas really will be there for the taking today. Djokovic and Simon weren't able to do much against the German, but I think that Ferrer will, especially if he starts where he has finished in the match against Melzer. He is hitting the ball well and is improving with every single match, so I fancy him to stop the German's impressive run in the semis. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/ferrer-vs-haas-betting-david-ferrer-to-stop-the-german-s-impressive-run-20130329 Back Dudi Sela to beat Lukas Rosol for a 2/10 stake at 2.25 with Bet365 Not sure whether Rosol really deserves to be such a favourite in this match-up. Dudi Sela will hang in there and that is something that Rosol, who is capable of self-destructing with plenty of unforced errors, simply isn't going to like too much. Sela has beaten quite a few big hitters in recent weeks, so I fancy him to beat the Czech today. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/sela-vs-rosol-betting-dudi-sela-might-be-worth-a-punt-against-the-czech-20130329

amity: My best bet is Cilic winning the first set' date= the odds are very nice, and based on statistics and current form he really has a chance to take it. Over seems a nice bet too, as for Cilic -4,5 games I am not sure, but the odds are too good for me to skip. Tommy Haas to beat David Ferrer 2,7 @ MarathonBet I'm impressed with Tommy's serves these days. 2 of the best return players in the world couldn't do anything with the german's serves. Ferrer's return games are good as well, but as I said even Djokovic, and Simon struggled on return. Ferrer had a difficult time against Melzer. He played with a lot of unforced errors, and struggled on serve, so Haas should be able to break him a few times.

I just want to give my own view about the match David Ferrer vs Tommy Haas and I've found something I think is quite suitable about it. You axbx and Czech are both betting on the same match but with different outcomes that you belive in. The Spaniard won seven tournaments last season including the Masters Series crown in Paris but Haas's ability to mix and match his game will make it a stern test and the germans level is really high and you have to be a bold character to go against him. Only the ability to mix and match his game makes me shiver if I don't bet on him so betting on Ferrer to win by at least 4 games is not the safest option around. I can't even say I truly belive in myself if I'd say the spaniard can win because it's more to it for Haas then just mix'n match because he is the most dangerous player to face in a situation where everything he does ends with higher and higher confidence and my best example of that is last years final in Halle when he grinded down Federer. Haas is a unique player which Ferrer is not. There are more then just one player with the same style as Ferrer but it's just that Ferrer is the one who has succeeded in the best possible way with a lot of dicipline and belief in his game. That is what has made him stay up for so long but it's not quarante for beating mr. Uniqe german.

[homunculus]

Re: March 18 - March 31 Another PINNY Parlay: (Haas vs Ferrer O22.5) x (Gasquet vs Murray O22) @3.78 (3/10) I'd say that both these semi matches have the potential to become CLASSIC. Ferrer did beat Haas both times they met, but that was 5 yrs ago. Tommy is riding on adrenaline by now and he is ready to die on the court, so the heavy schedule in past couple of weeks is not going to let him down. Ferrer had some troubles against Melzer, so he should not feel very comfortable against Tommy. In the end David should win this, but it's going to be a battle. As to Gasquet vs Murray, the ML odds 4.0 on Gasquet are tempting, too, but somehow I feel Andy is going to win this match. These two always played tight battles (except grass - the less favouirite Gasquet's surface where Andy beat him 3-0 at Wimby 2011), but other than that Gasquet always took at least one set. H2H is 4-3 for Andy, but no way this is going to be an easy match for him.

[four-leaf]

Re: March 18 - March 31 I've done a 10/10 bet with a very large stake for me. I know it's risky but I have to trust you on this parlay and hope it will work.

[CzechPunter]

Re: March 18 - March 31 Back Serena Williams (-4.5) to beat Maria Sharapova for a 3/10 stake at 1.90 with Paddy Power Back Serena Williams (-8.5) to beat Maria Sharapova for a 0.5/10 stake at 9.50 with Paddy Power Can't see past Williams here and I would not be surprised by seeing her demolish the Russian in at least one of the sets. It has been a tough event for both, but Sharapova seems to be struggling much more than Williams and this is a match-up in which she needs everything to be on her side in order to win. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/williams-vs-sharapova-betting-serena-williams-can-capture-the-title-with-a-straightforward-victory-20130330

[slider24]

Re: March 18 - March 31 Sergiy Stakhovsky to beat Lukas Rosol @ 10/11 BET 365 Strength (7/10) Good price on Stakhovsky here. For me he's just the more well-rounded player, can play from the back of the court and also come to net and end points there as well. Ultimately it is this variation, his consistency, and more 'clutch' play in vital moments that IMO will win him the match here. Obviously Rosol will have periods where he will hit through the Ukranian but he was softened up by Sela yesterday and I doubt his ability to come back today and bring enough intensity to win the match in the manner he'll need to to win, because in a close matches Stakhovsky is more likely to hold his nerve. :hope

[CzechPunter]

Re: March 18 - March 31 Back David Ferrer (+1.5 sets) to beat Andy Murray for a 2/10 stake at 2.04 with Pinnacle Andy Murray deserves to be the favourite and I guess that he is going to find his way to the title at the end of the day, but these odds just seem a touch higher than I would have them. After all, Ferrer is a tremendous competitor and Murray is more than capable of throwing in a really poor set at some point. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/ferrer-vs-murray-betting-david-ferrer-looks-value-to-win-a-set-against-the-scot-20130331