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CzechPunter

March 18 - March 31

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Re: March 18 - March 31 One more from me today: Under 19 games in Murray/Seppi 2,04 @ Pinnacle Sports Too big gap in strength. Murray will be in the final against Djokovic, no doubt. He had some problems against Dimitrov, but the bulgarian played a good game in the first set. On the other hand, Seppi took advantage of Bellucci's unforced errors. He barely hit any winners in the 3 setter. The errors won't come from the englishman so Murray will take this easily in straight sets.

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Re: March 18 - March 31

One more from me today: Under 19 games in Murray/Seppi 2,04 @ Pinnacle Sports Too big gap in strength. Murray will be in the final against Djokovic, no doubt. He had some problems against Dimitrov, but the bulgarian played a good game in the first set. On the other hand, Seppi took advantage of Bellucci's unforced errors. He barely hit any winners in the 3 setter. The errors won't come from the englishman so Murray will take this easily in straight sets.
Englishman!? Wash your mouth out with soap, young man!

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Re: March 18 - March 31

Four again for me today: - Over 22.5 games between Andreas Seppi and Thomaz Bellucci @ 1.91 with sbobet Perfect ingredients for an overs match here. They've met three times and on all three occasions, the matches have gone the distance. Neither man can stay consistent for a whole match and plenty is at stake in terms of ranking points. I also feel neither man has been especially impressive in terms of how they've played this week. I'm surprised to see the line at 22.5 as at least 23 seems correct considering who we're talking about here. 4pts - Alejandro Falla +5.5 games v Tomas Berdych @ 1.99 with sbobet It's hard to have too much faith in Berdych after that display against Gimeno-Traver on Saturday. He was very close to going out at the hands of the Spaniard and he plays a man who has plenty of support in Miami in Falla. There's a big South American contingent in Key Biscayne and the Colombian will be a sticky opponent. He likes to dig and offer up variety and Berdych may not appreciate that in these conditions. They met in Tokyo last year and Berdych won 6-3 7-5. A repeat would suffice for the handicap in this one. 3pts - Milos Raonic -2.5 games v Sam Querrey @ 1.95 with sbobet Unless Querrey improves drastically here, he's going to lose, and probably lose the handicap too. Raonic is too consistent on serve and will get plenty of chances, as the American has been weak recently, coughing up too many double faults and unforced errors. He looks a man ill at ease with the world. Raonic defeated him in San Jose 6-4 6-2 earlier this year and it's hard to see the form reversed. 4pts - Over 21.5 games between Jarkko Nieminen and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga @ 1.85 with sbobet Arguably the potential for a shock here. Nieminen is playing within himself and is hitting the ball confidently, while Tsonga certainly doesn't relish the slower surface and has perhaps not lived up to his true form recently. Nieminen has forced three sets and even beaten the Frenchman before and I predict we may see quite a close match. 21.5 games appears a little low as a result. 3pts :hope
Seppi d. Bellucci 7-5, 4-6, 6-2 WIN Berdych d. Falla 2-6, 7-6, 6-4 WIN Querrey d. Raonic walkover VOID Tsonga d. Nieminen 6-3, 6-3 LOSS +3.62pts for yesterday's antics :ok

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Re: March 18 - March 31 Big day in Miami. Five bets to take on the bookie: - Albert Ramos to beat Jurgen Melzer @ 2.04 with sbobet A few factors lead me towards Ramos here. Melzer has played a lot of tennis recently. He was in Indian Wells, then won the Dallas Challenger and has played three matches here, including a grueller in the last round with Kamke. He did look pretty fatigued towards the end of that match. Ramos, therefore, is a bad match-up in that respect. The Spaniard loves to grind and stay solid. Melzer's probably got more natural tennis ability, but Ramos will force errors, especially if the Austrian starts to tire in the humidity. He'll also have to fight the crowd, as Spaniards are popular here. 4pts - Nicolas Almagro to beat Richard Gasquet @ 2.11 with sbobet I'm liking Nico here. He's had a very good last six months and his hitting the ball so cleanly. I think he's got the trump card over Gasquet here with his power. Both men like to sit deep and take ball beyond the baseline, but Almagro has the better serve and perhaps just edges it on nerve. Gasquet's mini implosion against Youzhny worries me a little and shows that he is slightly suspect. Almagro leads the H2H 3-1, all on slower surfaces than Wimbledon, where Gasquet won last year. He'll have the crowd on his side again. I'd make him the favourite, so odds-against appeals. 4pts - Tomas Berdych -3.5 games v Sam Querrey @ 1.92 with sbobet Same rules as yesterday for me. Querrey just isn't good enough right now to defeat anyone remotely decent, and I include Berdych in that despite his horror-show yesterday against Falla. What is pleasing is that he came back, saved match points and closed the thing out. That should galvanise him for this encounter. Tomas is a fit lad, so I have no concerns about the quick turnaround. Sam's level is lower than the Czech's and that should be exposed here. 4pts - Andy Murray -5.5 games v Andreas Seppi @ 1.85 with sbobet I fear for the South Tyrolean Sex Machine here (that's the nickname for Seppi). It's his second serve. I sound like a broken record, but it's so susceptible, especially against top players. Murray is going to be all over it like a rat up a drainpipe. He had a tough match yesterday against Dimitrov, but this is easier because Seppi likes to spar and the Scot will just draw the errors. Last meeting between the two was 6-3, 6-3 and a similar outcome is very likely in Miami. 5pts - Over 22.5 games between Gilles Simon and Janko Tipsarevic @ 1.86 History says that these two will go over - they have done in more than 75% of their previous encounters. I think it's safe to summise that neither man is in the best form of their life, but Tipsy rallied well to defeat Anderson and Simon is always dangerous as a counterpuncher. Hard to imagine either player running away with this match and considering their history, there is no way this line should be 22.5 games. 4pts :hope

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Re: March 18 - March 31

Also a few Miami picks for me today. Thanks Atko, CzechPunter and homunculus for your picks. Back Nicolas Almagro (-4,5 games) to beat David Goffin. 1,95 @ pinnacle (6/10) Almagro is playing very well these days, smashed Guido Pella in 48 minutes and played some decent stuff. He is for sure the better and more experienced player than the young Goffin. Goffin has beaten Kohlschreiber, but that doesn´t count too much since Kohli is often simply crap and enjoys losing to weaker opponents at some times. The conditions suit to Almagro, he should get little problems on his serve and will get a lot of opportunities to break Goffin. 6-4 6-3 and the thing is done. Back Alejandro Falla to beat Tomas Berdych. 10,75 @ pinnacle (1/10) Back Alejandro Falla (+1,5 sets) to beat Tomas Berdych. 3,84 @ pinnacle (2/10) Back Alejandro Falla (+5,5 games) to beat Tomas Berdych. 1,98 @ pinnacle (3/10) In normal conditions Berdych wins, but perhaps not this time. He almost lost to Ginemo-Traver, had problems with his serve and the baseline shots. The slow conditions don´t seem to suit him, but you have to say, Ginemo-Traver played some decent stuff, too. Falla has beaten Verdasco, I didn´t see that game, but he seemed to be lucky in the second set. With his variable tennis and fighting abilities, Falla should give Berdych a nut to break. Back Jarkko Nieminen to beat Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. 3,88 @ pinnacle (3/10) I´m simply not impressed by Tsonga´s performances these days. Partly, he was poor at Indian Wells, although he reached the quarters, where he won just 4 games against Djokovic. Even the victories against Fish and Raonic didn´t impress me, that was defintely not his best tennis. The conditions in Miami are slower than Indian Wells, and this might suit Nieminen here, who is playing some decent stuff, far more consistant than Tsonga. Nieminen is able to confuse Tsonga and force into errors. H2H is 3-3. These odds are pretty high, although Tsonga is the favorite. Back Milos Raonic (-2,5 games) to beat Sam Querrey. 1,94 @ pinnacle (5/10) To make it short, I totally agree with Atko here. Back Garbine Muguraza Blanco to beat Li Na. 5,80 @ marathonbet (2/10) Back Garbine Muguraza Blanco (+1,5 sets) to beat Li Na. 2,67 @ pinnacle (3/10) Young Spaniard Muguraza is playing really decent tennis. She improved a lot the last month, playing better and better even on hard court. In Indian wells she managed to get to the round of last 16, where she lost to Kerber in two tight sets. In Miami she struggled against Siniakova, but then won impressivly against Pavlychenkova and Wozniacki in straight sets. Li Na is playing her first tournament since Australian Open, and Muguraza will be her first real opponent. Bertens and out-of-shape-Lepchenko clearly weren´t. Pershaps she needs some time to get in this match. The odds seem to high, although the most probable result is 2-0 for Li Na. Back Sorana Cirstea to beat Jelena Jankovic. 2,04 @ marathonbet (5/10) Both players love the faster surfaces, but Jankovic even more. Both players had decent results yesterday, Jankovic beating Petrova (where she led 6-2 in H2H and I for quite a long time considered backing her, but unfortunately, I didn´t), Cirstea winning impressively against Kerber. Cirstea should be favorite here in my eyes. I backed her yesterday, and I will back her today against an opponent, that is in total a lot weaker than Kerber. Back Alize Cornet to beat Roberta Vinci. 4,15 @ pinnacle (3/10) Alize Cornet vs. Roberta Vinci over 19,5 games. 1,94 @ pinnacle (4/10) Okay, Vinci is the better player, especially on hard court, but 4,15 against Cornet, who is quite good in shape? Bit too high in my eyes. Both players had three-setters yesterday, and even Vinci had to fight hard against Suarez Navarro, a game that she could have lost, too. Vinci is also playing doubles with Errani here, so is had to play a lot games the last days, and focus is perhaps on the doubles, where she can win with Errani. Time to go out for Vinci? Cornet is no push-over, the line is too low. Go doggies go! :nana
Cruel day, not so much because of a loss, but due to bad luck... Almagro d. Goffin 6-3 6-4 Berdych d. Falla 2-6 7-6 6-4 Tsonga d. Nieminen 6-3 6-3 Raonic vs Querrey w.o. Li d. Muguruza 7-6 6-2 Jankovic d. Cirstea 6-0 6-4 Vinci d. Cornet 2-6 6-4 6-4 Errani d. Ivanovic 1-6 6-4 6-2 Lama d. Pinet 6-1 6-1 Amritraj d. Mina 7-6 7-5 -1,32 in a day, that should have end with a big big plus. :spank The only real bad pick was backing Cirstea. Muguruza had a decent chance of winning a set, Li had her period of conceding, but unfortunately it was between 5-1 and 5-6 in first set. Falla had match balls, Berdych´s second serve ace kept him in that match. Cornet led 3-0 in the third... Errani had much more to fight than I thought, but winning clearly in the third. The two challenger picks failed. Mina at least had the chance of winning that match, leading 5-2 in the second set, two breaks in front, than getting injured. Hope the luck is back again today.

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Re: March 18 - March 31 Back Li Na to win WTA Sony Open Tennis @ 12.50 >Betfair Ahead of her quarter-final match against Serena Williams, I think Li Na is worth a go at this price to win the tournament. She hadn't played since the Australian Open, but she has won all three of her matches here so far in straight sets. I thought her win against Muguruza was a good result, as Muguruza had been playing well and beat some decent players to reach their forth round meeting. Serena Williams has looked a little shaky so far, going behind early on against Morita and dropping the first set against Cibulkova. Li Na is certainly a good enough player to take advantage if Williams continues to struggle, and if she gets through to the next round then she should have a good chance to make the final as she has a respectable record against Agnieszka Radwanska, and she would be favourite to beat Flipkens. She could play Sharapova if she reaches the final, who she beat when they last played at the Australian Open and who might start to feel a bit jaded after a busy few weeks. Li Na is probably the freshest player left in the draw, and if she can find a way past Serena Williams then I like her chances of taking the title in Miami.

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Re: March 18 - March 31 Tsonga vs Cilic. Over 22.5 games. 1.81 @ Pinnacle (9/10) Another over I really fancy here. Although Cilic didn't have a lot of aces in his win over Isner, he did serve quite well if you ask me. His serve will be another key factor in his match against Frenchman Tsonga. I really thought Nieminen had a shot at nicking the win from the Frenchman, but after the Finn couldn't take advantage of a shaky start from Tsonga, his game plummeted and Tsonga could easily move Nieminen around and finish him in a quite easy manner. In my eyes it's not really Tsonga who stepped up his game, but Nieminen that capitulated, making Tsonga looking better than he actually was. For me Tsonga's form is still looking shaky and in combination with the good Cilic serve this should be an easy over. Querrey vs Berdych. Over 23.5 games. 2.27 @ Pinnacle (8/10) Interesting match up here. While Berdych has been on the brink of being eliminated against Gimeno-Traver and Falla. Querrey is yet to find his form, being lucky himself not to lose against Kubot and having a walkover from Raonic. Berdych has been playing quite an amount of tennis and has also been pushed in 6 hard sets in the previous rounds. What surprised me was how happy, no, relieved he was to have pulled through once again. His game certainly hasn't significantly improved in his last match. Querrey can make life a lot more difficult if he keeps his errors down and hits good serves and deep groundstrokes. He is certainly capable of doing so. Everything together I find over 23.5 at these odds really hilarious. Almagro to beat Gasquet. 2.15 @ Pinnacle (6/10) I think Almagro is playing really well in Miami and he seems to like the conditions a lot. I really fancy him pushing Gasquet to the line here. Making shots and try to find a good balance between the shots and good court coverage to make Gasquet hit that extra shot. Youzhny was making too many errors to make Gasquet's life difficult, but it was clear that the Frenchman was having troubles with processing attacking balls and for me he isn't dictating play enough to get Almagro on his knees. In my eyes odds should be reversed. Nishikori to beat ML & (+4.5) Ferrer. 3.97 & 1.79 @ Pinnacle (3/10 & 8/10) Odds inflated far too much on the Japanese. A logical reasoning could be. Ferrer and Nishikori both similar players. Ferrer better player and higher ranked. Ferrer should be more solid and win more rallies and because Nishikori doesn't have a big serve, Ferrer should win easily. To me this is just a bit too much shallow thinking. At the moment Nishikori is finding more of his form that he had before his injury, illustrated by a good win against Malisse. He's been playing more solid and started serving better and I think he can make Ferrer's life difficult today. Ferrer isn't striking the ball deep enough at the moment and I think Nishikori can feed from that, taking over momentum and get the overhand in rallies. 3.97 is just mad and I would have it set more closely to 2.6-2.8

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Re: March 18 - March 31 Gasquet to beat Almagro, 1,80@Pinnacle Gasquet looked good yesterday, so did Almagro but I liked the look of Gasquet better. Gasquet is more of a hard court player than Almagro and Gasquet has had a better start of 2013 than Almagro. Therefor I think a punt on Gasquet looks solid.

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Re: March 18 - March 31 Collarini to beat Dutra-Silva. 2.50 @ Ladbrokes (4/10) Collarini is a quite unknown player at the moment who used to be one of the big talents when he was in his teens. Now 21, he hasn't lived up to those expectations but he has slowly risen to 297th position. He's still a quite talented player, lefty and a decent serve. Dutra-Silva, has had a terrible 2013 and is deservingly not in the top100. Strangely he has chosen to play qualifiers in Miami and has to adapt back to the red clay once more. Collarini should be able to take advantage from this, especially considering the youngster has beaten Dutra Silva in October of last year.

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Re: March 18 - March 31 Big day for me today, too: Miami Picks: 1) Back Nicolas Almagro to beat Richard Gasquet. 2,17 @ pinnacle (6/10) The Spaniard should be favourite here, playing great tennis so far in Miami. Powerful shots from the baseline, little errors, goos serve, very consistent. Gasquet has improved here, too, but I think he has no real weapons against Almagro, since the court is relatively slow and both in baseline battle and in serve/return, Almagro should be superior. H2H is 3:1 in favor of Almagro, and Almagro only lost on grass against Gasquet. 2) Back Albert Ramos to beat Jürgen Melzer. 1,99 @ pinnacle (5/10). I fancy Ramos here, The spaniard is a grinder, he will sit back and wait for Melzers mistakes. And these will come. Melzer could have gone out against Kamke, and he would have, if Kamke had performed just a little better. Melzer lacks the consistent play, has deficits in mind, and Ramos will benefit from these things. He has beaten an in-form-Blake, and I rate Melzer beneath. 3) Back Tomas Berdych (-3,5 games) to beat Sam Querrey. 2,10 @ marathonbet (5/10). Never thought to back Berdych here, never thought Berdych could win yesterday when the score was 2-6 3-5, but also never thought Querrey would still be in the tournament these days. I was really looking forward to some great odds for backing Falla against Querrey, but things had changed due to a second serve ace...Well, here is Berdych to back. Beneath two inconsistent players that make a lot of errors, even some cruel ones on their own and have problems on their serves, Berdych is the better one, especially when it comes to baseline rallies. Berdychs play in the third set improved a bit yesterday, and hopefully this continues. Then the handicap should be covered. 4) Back Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (-2,5 games) to beat Marin Cilic. 1,87 @ pinnacle (4/10) Time to go out for Cilic here. Tsonga has played quite well against Nieminen, and this should enough to outplay Cilic as well. The Croat has his serve, but not more. When it comes to rallies - and so it will be - Tsonga is far superior. He also has decent returns and is able to break Cilic a few times. Because of the slow conditions in Miami, this is really worth a bet. 5) Back Janko Tipsarevic to beat Gilles Simon. 2,26 @ pinnacle (3/10) 6) Janko Tipsarevic vs. Gilles Simon over 22,5 games. 1,91 @ pinnacle (3/10) Tipsarevic is improving here from game to game and is getting his shape back. Sela was a push-over, and that was exactly the thing Tipsarevic needed here. Against Anderson, he struggled, but Anderson played some decent stuff the first sets. But Tipsarevic fought back, came into the rhythm and bageled Anderson in the final set. Simon isn´t really a player that hurts his opponents by pushing him away. His qualities are fighting, grinding, and coming back, he has no hard shots. This will suit Tipsa here since he will be able to find his own shots. Imagine a three-setter here, that can go this way or that way. 7) Back Tommy Haas (+1,5 sets) to beat Novak Djokovic. 4,3 @ pinnacle (2/10) 8) Tommy Haas vs. Novak Djokovic over 18,5 games. 1,81 @ pinnacle (3/10) Am I crazy? I don´t know :p If you had to choose any player out of the top four to cause some trouble to world´s No. 1, I would fancy Haas. He is 35, but fantastic. Technically, he is the best in the world, and he would have won some majors, if he were not so injury-prone. He is definitely to old to catch up on that, but what he can do, is perhaps to win a masters, when conditions are great for him. I just read an interview, in which he is sure that he can beat the top four over 2 sets, but not over 3 at majors. But everything has to be perfect for him, and he won´t get a lot of chances more. I´m sure he will play his best tennis today. If he beats Nole, the tournament is open for him. This could be his game of the year. He is mentally so strong, perhaps he believes in himself. Let´s see. The line is too low in my eyes, and perhaps Tommy managed to get a set. 9) Back Kirsten Flipkens to beat Agnieska Radwanska. 4,76 @ pinnacle (3/10) 10) Back Kirsten Flipkens (+1,5 setd) to beat Agnieska Radwanska. 2,32 @ pinnacle (4/10) These odds seem way to high. Flipkens is playing some great stuff these days, beating Kvitova and bageling her in the first set, getting a set against Azarenka. The conditions in Miami seem to suit her very well. Radwanska is playing the kind of grinder tennis as she is always playing, but perhaps not with the last piece of class as she used to. She needed three sets against Rymarikova, Stevens, Cirstea, and lost to Kirilenko. I totally fancy an in-form-Flipkens to cause some trouble, too. 11) Back Na Li to beat Serena Williams. 3,88 @ pinnacle (3/10) 12) Back Na Li (+1,5 sets) to beat Serena Williams. 2,14 @ pinnacle (3/10) This is for sure kinds gambling. Serena struggled against Cibulkova yesterday, perhaps the court is a bit too slow for her. As far as Li is concerned, I saw her play yesterday against Muguruza. It was either great tennis by Li or bull**** play. Great up to 5-1, bull**** from 5-1 to 5-6. Great in the ti break up to 6-1, bull**** fron 6-1 to 6-6. The second set was far more consistent. You have to consider that this is the first tournament for Li after her brilliant Australian Open performance. If she plays her very best, she can win that game, I am sure. If she will do, only God knows. 13) Back Mattek-Sands/Mirza to beat Errani/Vinci. 3,45 @ marathonbet (4/10). Way to high. I can definitely see Errani/Vinci lose here, since Mattek-Sands and Mirza are a great double and in good shape. Mattek-Sands/Mirza have won Dubai doubles, lost to Raymond/Stosur at Indian Wells in match tie-break. Errani/Vinci had to play the match ti-break here against Date Krumm/Dellacqua (11-9) and against Babos/Minella (10-4). In Indian Wells they lost to Hsieh/Pennetta quite clear. I may not say this is pretty even, but Errani/Vinci are definitely not so big favorites, especially when it comes to match ti break, it is open play. Some challenger picks, all @ bet365 and with (2/10) stake: A little try-out after yesterdays losses at challenger level. A) Back Eduardo Struvay to beat Carlos Salamanca. 3,25 - Pereira Challenger. Struvay is the by far better and more talented tennis player here, Salamanca just profits from his serve, but when it comes to baseline rallys, it´s up to Struvay. Struvay had to fight with injuries, that´s why he is quoted this way. B) Back Alejandro Gonzalez to beat Teimuraz Gabashvili. 1,83 - Pereira Challenger. Clay courter vs. hard courter. Gonzalez has beaten Gabashvili on clay last automn 7-6 7-6. Since then, Gonzalez form improved, Gabashvili´s didn´t. C) Facundo Bagnis vs. Felipe Escobar under 17,5 games. 2,00 - Pereira Challenger. Bagnis is the better player, and in great shape. Just won Santiago challenger. Although I don´t like his style of play and don´t rate him that high, Escobar should be a push-over, ranked 961, losing the last games 0-2 sets on ITF level. D) Back Marcelo Demoliner to beat Peter Gojowckzk. 2,10 - San Luis Potosi Challenger. Pretty even, when the class of the players is concerned. But this is the first clay court match for the German since last June. He hits the ball hard and his style of play doesn´t fit that well on clay court. Demoliner is clay courter, and had some fine results the last time, beating solid players like Souza or Tringelliti. :hope:hope:hope

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Re: March 18 - March 31 Gonzalez to beat Gabashvili. 1.80 @ Unibet. (6/10) I find thise odds hilarious. Everything speaks in favour of Alejandro Gonzalez who is playing at home. The Colombian is in a decent form for his standards and is enjoying a career high ranking of 166. Gonzalez is just a one in a dozen clay players that is quite solid and grinds the points out. He must be feeling quite confident winning his first Challenger tournament at Salinas and reaching the quarters in Santiago right after that. He has now had enough time to ride on that form and rest and prepare for his encounter with the more flamboyant Gabashvili. The Russian is certainly the more talented and accomplished player. But there is no management or thought in his game or career for that matter. Anyway, this guy hasn't had the best year as of yet and after an unsuccesful clay start has decided to try his luck on the hardcourt in Dallas, without succes either. He is now returning to the clayswing and will have to adapt to the surface once again. Especially with the 1-0 h2h in the pocket for the Colombian since November of this year, I find these odds to be quite ridiculous.

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Re: March 18 - March 31

A) Back Eduardo Struvay to beat Carlos Salamanca. 3,25 - Pereira Challenger.
I had this one in mind as well but then I found a picture on a Colombian website which shows Struvay with some weird bandage around his right arm...I actually can't really tell what exactly this means (let alone what it is...) but it may indicate that he is somehow handicapped... Here's the link: http://www.latarde.com/noticias/deportes/111614-inician-las-emociones-del-cuadro-principal

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Re: March 18 - March 31 Back Almagro/Marach to beat Qureshi/Rojer 2,6 @ MarathonBet Almagro and Marach played extremely well in both of their matches, beating Cabal/Gonzalez and the no.3 seed Bhuphathi/Nestor in straight sets. Qureshi/Rojer are a great side too, but I think this match can go either way, making Almagro/Marach good value.

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Re: March 18 - March 31 7 of my Games went to three sets, I lost all of them. The winnings of miami nearly lost in a single day. Sorry for yesterdays bets. I'm losing djokovic vs Haas overs due to Haas winning in under games :D Time to take a Break for me.

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Re: March 18 - March 31 Back Maria Sharapova (-5.5) to beat Sara Errani for a 2/10 stake at 1.82 with Pinnacle Sara Errani has played so much tennis in recent weeks that you simply have to be impressed by her results, both in the singles and the doubles. However, this is a match-up in which she can prevail only if everything goes according to the plan and I fear that the circumstances simply aren't ideal for her this time around. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/sharapova-vs-errani-betting-maria-sharapova-can-cruise-through-to-the-next-round-20130327 Back Gilles Simon to beat Tommy Haas for a 2/10 stake at 2.83 with Pinnacle Call me crazy, but I think that it might be worth going against Haas. Simon is exactly the type of a player you wouldn't want to play against after such a big win and I fear that Tommy Haas might not be able to get going like he did against Djokovic today. Simon will make things hard for him - and that might easily be enough for the German to lose. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/simon-vs-haas-betting-gilles-simon-might-have-a-chance-against-the-in-form-german-20130327

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Re: March 18 - March 31 Ferrer (-1,5) - Melzer, 1,328@Pinnacle I have tried to find an excuse to bet on Melzer, but I could not find any (beside two Melzer wins in 2010) Ferrer is the better player and Melzer have struggled to get to the QF. Therefor it looks to me, like an easy 2-0 win for Ferrer, and that is where my money goes.

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Re: March 18 - March 31 Ferrer (-7) to bt. Melzer 3.06 @ Pinnacle (8/10) These odds are out of line. Melzer is being slightly overrated after winning his title and his so said good performance here in Miami. The Austrian has played a lot of matches including a lot of encounters that went to lengths. In my eyes he was heading for the loss, but both Ramos and Kamke donated the wins when Melzer raised his game by a little. Although he seems very motivated, he also seemed very tired towards the end of the match. While he had a day rest after his Granollers and Kamke match, he's now going to have to play back-to-back days. Against Ferrer, playing back-to-back is really going to break him up. The Spaniard looks fully fit after his rest following the loss against Anderson at Indian Wells. He's also a player that grows into a tournament catching momentum and rhythm on the way. He was rock solid in the second set against Nishikori and I believe that trend should continue. Conditions really suit Ferrer at the moment and the Austrian is just not solid enough to hurt Ferrer and I think he'll make a lot of mistakes trying to finish rallies fast and making bad approach decisions. Ferrer will feed off those mistakes and send Melzer packing with nothing but 4 games at most.

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Re: March 18 - March 31 Simon to beat Haas @ 2.72 (4/10 @ Pinnacle) Over 23.5 games 2.23 @ Pinnacle (9/10) I'm not really sure who'll win this match up. But the value is definitely on Simon's side, odds should be far more to evens than it is right now. One thing of what I am really confident, is that this is going to be a marathon game. Haas is obviously in heaven right now after his dream win over Djokovic at this age. Surely he played very well against Nole, but Djokovic was really, really off his game last night. Haas seems to fire himself up more into full focus when playing the top dogs, but on the flip side he tends to throw in a period in which he makes errors against others. Resulting in unnecessary tiebreaks or third sets. Simon has a habit of playing a lot of 3 setters as well. But he sure looks quite good at the moment and I think his defensive game yesterday against Tipsarevic was quite on par and he could really frustrate the German like he did with Janko. For me this over looks absolutely great and I'm also taking Simon on medium-small stakes.

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Re: March 18 - March 31 Gasquet to bt Berdych @3.26 Pinnacle (3/10) The price is just unbelievable. Considering that in all their 8 previous meetings (H2H 4-4) Gasquet's price was around 2.30 - 2.90 (except 2007 Tokyo where he was a 1.60ish fav), one wonders what makes the bookies to believe Tomas is going to win this match. The fact is, that he massacred Sam Querrey yesterday, but Sam played really, really poor, not believing he could ever win this and was making stupid errors. Tomas only slightly improved his game when compared to disasters against Gimeno-Traver and Falla, but his forehand unforceds remained as horrible as throughout the whole Miami tournament. On the other hand, Gasquet had good win over Mugro, who was firing aces all over, but thanks to his mental unstability he could not deliver after winning the first set. IMO Tomas is even bigger choker than Mugro, he is not playing in good shape here, and this price is a must.

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Re: March 18 - March 31 Back Jelena Jankovic to win WTA Sony Open Tennis @ 90.00 >Betfair I've had a small amount matched at this price, which I think offers some value. Jankovic had a bit of a slow start to the season, before winning the title in Bogota on clay, which should have boosted her confidence. She then lost her first match in Indian Wells to Kuznetsova, but I think that's fair enough as she was changing surfaces and might not have been fully recovered from her exploits in Colombia. She looks to have done well so far in this tournament, and beating Petrova and Cirstea in straight sets suggests to me that she might be returning to the form she was in a few years ago. Her next match here is against Vinci, and although Vinci has got the better of her in their most recent meetings, I think Jankovic is playing better now than she was then. Sharapova would probably be Jankovic's opponent if she reaches the semi-final, but she has played a lot of tennis recently. If Jankovic is able to get to the final, Serena Williams or Agnieszka Radwanska would be waiting. I'm still not convinced about how fit Williams is, and Radwanska has struggled to find her best form in this tournament. As I mentioned, the stake is small, but I think this is worth a shot.

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Re: March 18 - March 31 Le Gosier - Gonzalo Lama to beat Matthias Bachinger @ 6/1 BET 365 Strength (5/10) Bit of a long shot I suppose but definately feel there is a possibilty of an upset. Bachinger has been high-rolling in the big events recently, not really doing much but alot of travelling, and now he comes back to down to earth to the Challenger circuit just before the clay season begins Europe. You have to wonder if after his defeat to Smyzcek in Miami whether or not he's just mentally wrote off the hard court season. Last year he didn't even play a tournament after Miami - preferring to have a couple of weeks off after to prepare for Casablanca, so it's not as if he's defending anything. The conditions are also very tough; extremely hot and humid, and windy(Lacko retired with sunstroke). These sort of elements probably suit Lama down to the ground, being a clay grinder from Chile. He's had two matches here so he's used to the surface and conditions, and he's also a very talented player. The reason he's so big of course is that he rarely plays on hard but he did take Bruges-Davi to a tie-break a year ago on the surface and he looks to be a player that wants to make his mark on all surfaces (along with compatriot Garin). Worth a shot. :hope

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Re: March 18 - March 31

Simon to beat Haas @ 2.72 (4/10 @ Pinnacle) Over 23.5 games 2.23 @ Pinnacle (9/10) I'm not really sure who'll win this match up. But the value is definitely on Simon's side, odds should be far more to evens than it is right now. One thing of what I am really confident, is that this is going to be a marathon game. Haas is obviously in heaven right now after his dream win over Djokovic at this age. Surely he played very well against Nole, but Djokovic was really, really off his game last night. Haas seems to fire himself up more into full focus when playing the top dogs, but on the flip side he tends to throw in a period in which he makes errors against others. Resulting in unnecessary tiebreaks or third sets. Simon has a habit of playing a lot of 3 setters as well. But he sure looks quite good at the moment and I think his defensive game yesterday against Tipsarevic was quite on par and he could really frustrate the German like he did with Janko. For me this over looks absolutely great and I'm also taking Simon on medium-small stakes.
I didn't see Simon vs Tipsy but was both apalled and impressed with him against Paire a couple of weeks back, in that both him and Paire were shockingly poor in that match, dropping their serves left, right and centre - at one stage there was five breaks of serve in a row! That said, Simon hung in there impressively, saving a couple of matchpoints and not throwing the towel in and eventually winning the match, even when he was playing way way below his normal level, and for that i applaud him It seems like his level has improved since then, and yes the one thing in Simon's favour is the tendency for players who beat the top seed unexpectedly (like Rosol vs Nadal last year) having a nightmare in the next match, Haas however is too much of a pro to let that happen I would still think Haas will have too much for Simon, even in his elated state, my inclination is to wait until the game has started and perhaps bet in running...

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Re: March 18 - March 31 Cilic +4,5 games against Murray 2,30 @ MarathonBet, Over 20,5 games 2,0 @ Ladbrokes, 1st set winner: Cilic 4,58 @ Pinnacle The prices are nice considering how good Cilic has been playing. I think it will be a close encounter, so Cilic +4,5 games seems good value, and even in a 2-setter the match should go over. They played 2 matches at Masters level, and both of them went over. Head-to-head in first set is 4-4 in their 8 matches, and 3-2 to Cilic in their last 5.

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