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CzechPunter

March 18 - March 31

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Re: March 18 - March 31

Nice analysis and good to see a new face around here.
Thank you. I´m quite glad to be here and I just want to introduce myself to let you know who I am. I´m from Germany and betting german and international football matches as well as tennis games. In football, I´m Bayern Munich supporter, that´s my team (perhaps you´ll know why I chose my user name). I play tennis myself and as far as the pro level is concerned, I support both Federer and Nadal. Seems to be strange, but that´s the way it is. I used to bet football and tennis games with ups and downs, but I made profits on a long-term basis. Unfortunately last year I had to stop betting for more than half a year, because I simply didn´t have the time to watch tennis games. In February, I started once again, but I was kinda out, had lost my feeling and lost money, money that I earned due to Chelsea´s victory against Bayern in last UCL final. I have a habbit to lay my own team in very important games in order to be not that disappointed when they lose. However, not to be that disappointed didn´t work in that case, but at least the game gave me good money. What I´m tyring to say is...last week in Indian Wells, I think that my feeling came back and my bet are getting better again. So I want to get the lost money back and earn even more. I hope you can help me, and I hope, I can help you. That´s why I´m posting here now, cause I´ve read here for some time and recognized that here are some very good punters. So you will read something from me in the next time - if you want. My english isn´t that good at all, but I hope you´ll understand me. :)

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Re: March 18 - March 31 @Guardiola your English is just fine viel besser als mein Deutsch! thanks for your tips and also to all the other guys on here when i get myself more organised, i'll start to post some of my own tips (with reasoning)

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Re: March 18 - March 31 Scratchy day yesterday left me a little out of pocket. Think today is harder, but will give a couple a shot. - Over 21.5 games between Grega Zemlja and Florian Mayer @ 1.94 with sbobet Not a fan of either player right now. Zemlja has just come back from injury and was in trouble with Bautista-Agut before his injury. Mayer, however, has had a rotten 2013 and hasn't been able to impose his rather unorthodox style on his opponents. Both men will be motivated though and Zemlja is perhaps a little better than his ranking suggests, with a powerful game and good movement. I think it'll be fairly close and I expected the game line to be a bit higher, maybe 22.5. Worth a shot. 5pts - Novak Djokovic -7 games AH v Lukas Rosol @ 2.04 with sbobet Big, big gap between these players. It'll take a Nadal-esque performance from Rosol to do a great deal of damage here and I can't see that happening. Since that win at Wimbledon over the Spaniard, he's actually been pretty poor. He defeated Muller in R1, but coughed up plenty of chances on serve that a better rallier would take. Djokovic, evidently, is one of the best in the business and I'm expecting him to be a man on a mission after his defeat to Del Potro last week. Night conditions mean the court is slower too, so it seems like a perfect storm for me against Rosol. 6-3, 6-2 is the least I'd expect in terms of a scoreline, and with the odds above 2.00, it merits a play from me. 4pts - Janko Tipsarevic -3.5 games v Dudi Sela @ 1.85 with sbobet This is either going to look inspired or very silly. Yes, Tipsy has been out of form for weeks now - nay, in fact months - but he will bounce back, and I feel this is sort of match to suit him. Low expectation, slow conditions so he can get his timing back a bit and against a player who, in all honesty, very rarely troubles the big boys. That's why he's ranked so low. Sela can be crafty and gutsy, but he is also a few levels beneath someone like Janko. The Serb has had ten days off to get back fit again and if he has done, this line will look very silly, as he'll cover it. 4pts :hope

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Re: March 18 - March 31 Sijsling is either carrying an injury or unfit either way he's getting his ass whipped by Haas right now was a bit worried when I saw him capitulate all of a sudden in the second set against Reynolds last week when he seemed to have taken control of the match

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Re: March 18 - March 31 not sure what the hell happened Sijsling in that first set, but he made a fight of it after that seemed to run out of steam in the third, while very much still in the match, shame i suspect he's still a bit off full fitness since his injury, but with a few more matches under his belt, i can see him winning matches again and moving up the rankings and possibly making it to 4R or QFs of majors in the years ahead he's a talented player, superb serve when he's on song, almost unreturnable

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Re: March 18 - March 31

Sijsling is either carrying an injury or unfit either way he's getting his ass whipped by Haas right now was a bit worried when I saw him capitulate all of a sudden in the second set against Reynolds last week when he seemed to have taken control of the match
Haas strolled it really bar a mental lapse in the second set. Never backing against him again, that's for sure. Mr. Consistent.

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Re: March 18 - March 31

not sure what the hell happened Sijsling in that first set, but he made a fight of it after that seemed to run out of steam in the third, while very much still in the match, shame i suspect he's still a bit off full fitness since his injury, but with a few more matches under his belt, i can see him winning matches again and moving up the rankings and possibly making it to 4R or QFs of majors in the years ahead he's a talented player, superb serve when he's on song, almost unreturnable
Yeah shame he was so stiff and unprepared in the first set. He showed how much of a bull he can be when he gets warmed up. He's a big dude with limited mobility as it is so if his ankle is not right then he's too reliant on the serve.

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Re: March 18 - March 31 any thoughts on Niemenin? his comeback against Nalbandian was nothing short of ridiculous, thought there was no way back for him when a set and a break (or was it two breaks?) down Klizan got a bye into the next round, but from what I've seen, he's not in the best of form, will wait and see what the handicaps are on this one, but Jarrko really impressed me with his Lazarus like recovery in Round 1

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Re: March 18 - March 31 Gasquet -5 AH v O. Rochus @ 1.83 Marathon Fancy gasquet here, Oil hasn't got any weapons to threat Richard, he was lucky to win in first round vs injured Ito. If you look at h2h between these two you will notice that gasquet didn't have any problems to cover this line on most occasions. Although these results are from few years back therefore one would think they're quite irrelevant however during these past years the player who dropped his level is Rochus. Therefore if Gasquet didn't have problems in the past vs rochus can't see why he should have any now.

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Re: March 18 - March 31

Gasquet -5 AH v O. Rochus @ 1.83 Marathon Fancy gasquet here, Oil hasn't got any weapons to threat Richard, he was lucky to win in first round vs injured Ito. If you look at h2h between these two you will notice that gasquet didn't have any problems to cover this line on most occasions. Although these results are from few years back therefore one would think they're quite irrelevant however during these past years the player who dropped his level is Rochus. Therefore if Gasquet didn't have problems in the past vs rochus can't see why he should have any now.
Interesting, although Rochus has been in stellar form lately, dispatched Petschner very easily (and Petschner had been on a good run himself up to that point) but if he only beat Ito cos he was injured, then that's a cause for concern alright There's also the fact that Gasquet is a headcase, and can sometimes snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, so I think I'll pass on this one Thanks for your thoughts though

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Re: March 18 - March 31 Thomaz Bellucci v Jerzy Janowicz Polish has been disappointing has happened and where its effect "boom" Paris is far from reality. Especially if we measure it in such courts, outdoor hard, and not very fast. these tracks you should sit Bellucci fine, a slow hard to be particularly well suited to his powerful left foot. Moreover, shortly before effect "boom" Janowicz, last year beat Bellucci in straight sets in a very fast indoor hard court. By adding another factor, Bellucci has already played one round, while the Polish did not, and also won a player of similar characteristics as Daniel Brands. Thomaz Bellucci @ 2,9X my bet of the day GL

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Re: March 18 - March 31 I think this will be my first tips for me here ! So:Andy Murray - Bernard Tomic under 20.5 games @1.85 Bet365 Andy always starts every tournament in force, he wants every game to end up quickly because he need to be well prepared for the final stages of the tournament. Raonic - Ruffin under 20.5 games @ 1.85 Bet365 Same argument. Good Luck !

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Re: March 18 - March 31 Back Mikhail Youzhny to beat Yen-hsun Lu for a 2/10 stake at 2.02 with Pinnacle Fancy Mikhail Youzhny to bounce back with a win over Lu. He has a good H2H record against him and seems fully fit (he has already won a doubles match against the Bryans here, so there should be no problems fitness-wise) for his Miami campaign, so I would not have him as the underdog here. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/youzhny-vs-lu-betting-mikhail-youzhny-to-bounce-back-by-winning-against-yen-hsun-lu-20130323 Back Ivan Dodig to beat John Isner for a 2/10 stake at 2.37 with Ladbrokes Isner is going to come back strongly at some point, but I do not believe that he is going to do much in Miami this year. The slower conditions will hinder his serve and Dodig will stay in no matter what, so I fancy the Croat to convert his chances and to record yet another victory in Miami. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/dodig-vs-isner-betting-john-isner-s-struggles-look-set-to-continue-in-miami-20130323 Back Simone Bolelli (+1.5 sets) to beat Grigor Dimitrov for a 2/10 stake at 2.22 with Pinnacle Bolelli did really well against Levine, saving a match point on the American's serve and turning the deciding set around. He is a level below Dimitrov, but he is one of the toughest players around and we all know that Dimitrov can be rather lackluster at times, so a set might be fully within the Italian's range here. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/bolelli-vs-dimitrov-betting-simone-bolelli-might-have-enough-for-a-set-or-two-today-20130323

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Re: March 18 - March 31 Isner vs Dodig. Over 23.5 games 2.00 @ Pinnacle (8/10) Good value on this one. Isner's form is quite patchy and erratic this year also due to some injury problems he has faced. Certainly the better server of the two, but Dodig has a good serve as well and will certainly hold his serve quite easily. His form is quite good and he's already had a match to catch some more rhythm and adapting to the surface. Can see this match going to lengths with at least two very close sets. Tsonga (-5.5 games) to beat Troicki. 2.79 @ Pinnacle (5/10) Definitely opposing Troicki again. Basically a lot of the same reasoning as I had in the pick versus Andujar. Unfortunately the Spaniard was just not good enough to trouble Troicki. I don't think the Serbian has turned the tide or is catching on any form whatsoever. He lost 35% of his second serves and gave away 11 breakpoints in which he got broken three times. The 6-2 6-3 win looks impressive but I think it's a flattered win. In the current situation Tsonga is definitely capable of punishing Troicki for every short ball or bad shot selection he makes. Troicki won't be able to dictate points and should be pushed in the defence on a constant basis throughout the match, leading to more unforced errors from this mental nutcase. Odds are way too high on this one and represents pure value. Youzhny to beat Lu. 2.02 @ Pinnacle (7/10) In no case should Lu be a favourite against Youzhny. The Russian hasn't been playing quite well recently after retiring from Rotterdam, but has had enough time to prepare for this tournament. Lu has absolutely no weapons to beat Youzhny and will only if he can frustrate the Russian into making a lot of mistakes with his excellent court coverage. However I think Youzhny has too much firepower for Lu too handle especially in the backhand area. A sign of his return could be the upset he and Mirnyi had, winning yesterday in doubles against the Bryan brothers. Their last encounter went 6-1 6-0 to Youzhny, but because of his patchy form after his injury, this could become a close encounter. Nevertheless I simply can't see the Russian losing this one.

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Re: March 18 - March 31

Scratchy day yesterday left me a little out of pocket. Think today is harder, but will give a couple a shot. - Over 21.5 games between Grega Zemlja and Florian Mayer @ 1.94 with sbobet Not a fan of either player right now. Zemlja has just come back from injury and was in trouble with Bautista-Agut before his injury. Mayer, however, has had a rotten 2013 and hasn't been able to impose his rather unorthodox style on his opponents. Both men will be motivated though and Zemlja is perhaps a little better than his ranking suggests, with a powerful game and good movement. I think it'll be fairly close and I expected the game line to be a bit higher, maybe 22.5. Worth a shot. 5pts - Novak Djokovic -7 games AH v Lukas Rosol @ 2.04 with sbobet Big, big gap between these players. It'll take a Nadal-esque performance from Rosol to do a great deal of damage here and I can't see that happening. Since that win at Wimbledon over the Spaniard, he's actually been pretty poor. He defeated Muller in R1, but coughed up plenty of chances on serve that a better rallier would take. Djokovic, evidently, is one of the best in the business and I'm expecting him to be a man on a mission after his defeat to Del Potro last week. Night conditions mean the court is slower too, so it seems like a perfect storm for me against Rosol. 6-3, 6-2 is the least I'd expect in terms of a scoreline, and with the odds above 2.00, it merits a play from me. 4pts - Janko Tipsarevic -3.5 games v Dudi Sela @ 1.85 with sbobet This is either going to look inspired or very silly. Yes, Tipsy has been out of form for weeks now - nay, in fact months - but he will bounce back, and I feel this is sort of match to suit him. Low expectation, slow conditions so he can get his timing back a bit and against a player who, in all honesty, very rarely troubles the big boys. That's why he's ranked so low. Sela can be crafty and gutsy, but he is also a few levels beneath someone like Janko. The Serb has had ten days off to get back fit again and if he has done, this line will look very silly, as he'll cover it. 4pts :hope
Zemlja d. Mayer 6-3, 7-6 WIN Djokovic d. Rosol 6-1, 6-0 WIN Tipsarevic d. Sela 6-2, 6-4 WIN +12.26pts for yesterday. Very pleased with that outcome. Good to see the tennis threads vibrant once again. Keep posting chaps :ok

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Re: March 18 - March 31 Back Nicolas Almagro (-6 games) to beat Guido Pella. 2,70 @ pinnacle (6/10) Young Argentinian Pella should lose this game quite clear. Almagro is simply the better player, more experienced, and Pella should have no weapons against him, especially on hard court. Pella lost againt Dodig at Indian Wells 1:6 2:6. Almagro has beaten Pella just a few weeks ago in Buenos Aires on clay court 3:6 2:6. In my mind, these odds seem to be pure value. Back Mikhail Youzhny to beat Yen-Hsun Lu. 2,02 @ pinnacle (6/10) I agree to you all. Better player, and even with self-confidence now due to the miracle win with Mirnyi against Bryan/Bryan. Back Jarkko Nieminen to beat Martin Klizan. 1,60 @ marathonbet (9/10) Back Jarkko Nieminen to beat Martin Klizan in straight sets. 2,40 @ pinnacle (5/10) Klizan is a clay courter with no win on hard court in this year. Last week he lost against Lu. Nieminen is in good shape, has beaten Nalbandian, and is in total the better player. I simply don´t see Klizan winning here. Nieminen is always able to crush weeker opponents, that´s why I am betting on straight sets victory, too. Santiago Giraldo vs. Marin Cilic over 20,5 games. 2,16 @ marathonbet (6/10) Odds seem too high here for this low line. Of course, Cilic is the favorite here, but Giraldo is a solid player that can cause Cilic problems, especially at this slow court in long reallys. Cilic himself - I simply don´t like his style of play - hasn´t that good returns to break Giraldo more than a few times. With one set going to tie-break, this bet should be won.

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Re: March 18 - March 31 Quite a few bets for today: - Thomaz Bellucci +3 games AH v Jerzy Janowicz @ 1.93 with sbobet I think Janowicz could be a bit vulnerable here. Slow court against a player who has beaten him before. Bellucci will cause the Pole problems because of the lefty effect and the fact he'll pick on Janowicz's backhand - his weakest wing. Bellucci had a scratchy first set against Brands in R1, but after that he rallied very well and won quite impressively, not losing his serve. I'm quite happy to take him with a three-game start here. 3pts - Over 21.5 games between Sam Querrey and Lukasz Kubot @ 1.88 with sbobet Querrey is overrated by the bookies in this one. He's not been playing good tennis in America this season. He's not serving well and coughs up a lot of errors. I feel his game is a bit wooden at the moment. Kubot is another relatively unstable player, but he likes these slower surfaces and will look to pressure Querrey with his aggressive net play. They played in Australia two years ago and Kubot won in five sets. The Pole has a high overs rate and does do long matches. Value line here. 4pts - Over 22.5 games between Philipp Kohlschreiber and David Goffin @ 2.01 with sbobet Kohlschreiber is still coming back from injury and that's why he was mauled by Paire in Indian Wells. He should be fresher here. His injury came at the wrong time, as he was playing very well at the time. Goffin hasn't kicked on from his breakthrough last year, but the German's lack of match practice evens it out a lot here. Both men can struggle on serve and I can see it being quite a protracted encounter. 3pts - Aljaz Bedene +4 games AH v Andreas Seppi @ 2.00 with sbobet I always think Seppi is worth going against on a plus. There is no doubt he's in the form of his career, but his second serve is so attackable and that gives guys like Bedene a chance. For those of you who don't know the young Slovenian, he's an improving player who can serve big and is quite gutsy. He's hungry too and recorded a nice win over Becker in R1. Certainly these conditions should suit him and he's got a decent shot at worrying Seppi. 4pts - Under 20 games AH between Nicolas Almagro and Guido Pella @ 1.85 with sbobet Pella is only here because Berlocq retired. I have little doubt that Carlos would have beaten him had he not retired. There is too much of a quality gap here. Pella has very rarely come up against someone of Nico's ability and on the one occasion he did, Almagro won 6-3, 6-2 on clay a few weeks ago. A break in each set would probably suffice in this match. Almagro's probably in the best shape of his career and should get the job done comfortably. 4pts - Santiago Giraldo +4.5 games v Marin Cilic @ 1.98 with sbobet This is a slightly riskier bet because Cilic has beaten the Colombian comfortably in their last two meetings, but they came when Cilic was a far better player than he is right now. Giraldo will love these conditions and he overcame a potential banana skin against Williams in the last round. Giraldo likes a hard court, but one which gives him time to line up his shots, and this should certainly play to his strengths. Much tougher test than the young American, but Cilic is known to be slow starter in events and Giraldo might catch him cold in this one. 3pts - Over 22.5 games between Fernando Verdasco and Alejandro Falla @ 2.00 with sbobet This is a strange choice as a night match for me, but one which could galvanise both men. I expect playing under the lights might spur them on. Verdasco isn't in great form, but Miami's courts should suit his game perfectly. Falla will grind and battle away, as is his norm. Their only meeting went the distance and a similar match would not surprise me here. 4pts :hope

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Re: March 18 - March 31 Kvitova vs Flipkens over 20.5 games @Pinnacle 2.06 (5/10) Kvitova never plays her top game on US hard courts, this is her long recognised feature. The cause is the hot and humid conditions and relatively slow courts. In IW, she started slow struggling against Govortsova and Tsurenko, then she saved forces in a strange match with her compatriot Zakopalova before she ultimately lost in QF with Maria Kirilenko in a tough three setter played on one of the hottest days in IW. In Miami, she started slow again, losing the first set vs Peng, before she managed to regroup and win the next two sets convincingly 6-2 6-2. With Kirsten Flipkens, I expect something similar. H2H is 1-1, and the match Petra has won indoors in her best season 2011 during Bel-CZE Fed Cup went over this line, too. On the other hand, I doubt Kirsten is going to steamroll Petra in two straight sets - something like this happened only twice this year - when Petra lost to Mladenovic in Paris (she underestimated unknown Mladenovic) and to Cibulkova in Sydney (was in really bad form there). Flipkens is no pushover, she took a set off Azarenka in IW, and therefore I expect tigh battle with Kirsten stealing a set.

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Re: March 18 - March 31 Hello Guys! What do you think about this bet? Back the Harrison brothers +1,5 sets to beat Dimitrov/Nielsen 1,7 @ SBObet I don't know why Christian Harrison pulled out in the singles but the Harrison bros played great tennis at the US Open beating Fyrstenberg/Matkowski, Erlich/Ram and Fleming/Hutchins pairs. I think with the crowd's backing they should grab at least one set against the Dimitrov / Nielsen pair.

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Re: March 18 - March 31 Martin Kilzan to beat Jarrko Nieminen @ 6/4 BET 365 Strength (6/10) Fancy Klizan to get his season finally up and running here. He had a tough loss against Lu last week but at least it showed he's pretty fit and and in decent nick. If he is in good shape I think Klizan has too much for Nieminen from the back of the court, especially on these slower courts. He can spar all day and I think he'll eventually overwhelm the Finn who these days struggles to really string together good performances. He was on the cusp of a first round exit against Nalbandian in the first round, getting outplayed, and then he rallied to sneak through in three. Good result but with Fat Dave in the twilight of his career you have to wonder how much of it was him physically and mentally flagging rather than the Finn playing great tennis. I don't think Klizen will be quite as charitable and I as I said, Nieminen just struggles to maintain intensity these days so a repeat of that stoic resistance is unlikely. :hope

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Re: March 18 - March 31 For tomorrow: Back Kamke to beat Melzer: 2,67 @ Unibet Melzer started to regain his form after a big slump but he played against low quality players and a lot of his matches went to 3 sets. Tobias Kamke on the other hand beat Del Potro in 2 sets in the last round, and that's enough for me to back Kamke with this price. Seriously I don't get these odds. Back Djokovic -6,5 games to beat Dev Varman: 1,65 @ MarathonBet They are not of the same quality. I think Nole will hold his serves easily, while breaking Dev Varman 4 times is expected by the world no.1 Thumbs up for Atko, nice picks today :clap

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Re: March 18 - March 31 fernando verdasco - alejandro falla BACK FERNANDO VERDASCO @ 1,8x BET365 He has practiced in training with several Tour players, as Giraldo, Berankis, Feliciano, Almagro, etc. and has also trained on his own, with his coach. He has not come here to walk, by demonstrating both intensive training and want to improve their image after Indian Wells. The Colombian is going through, like Fer, one of the worst moments of his career in terms of play and results. It is fatal to serve and committing blunders in its strength, from the bottom track. His left foot just is not intimidating and has no consistency from the baseline. Win in first round as a sparring Soeda says nothing. I think Verdasco is a far superior player if plugged and preparing it proves me. GL

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Re: March 18 - March 31

For tomorrow: Back Kamke to beat Melzer: 2,67 @ Unibet Melzer started to regain his form after a big slump but he played against low quality players and a lot of his matches went to 3 sets. Tobias Kamke on the other hand beat Del Potro in 2 sets in the last round, and that's enough for me to back Kamke with this price. Seriously I don't get these odds. Back Djokovic -6,5 games to beat Dev Varman: 1,65 @ MarathonBet They are not of the same quality. I think Nole will hold his serves easily, while breaking Dev Varman 4 times is expected by the world no.1 Thumbs up for Atko, nice picks today :clap
Just thought I should point something out on Kamke before you put all your eggs in his basket(lol). Del Potro's loss had more to do with complete fatigue than any credit being awarded to Kamke. Taking that victory away from him leaves him bare and suspect. He could still win though!!

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