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CzechPunter

March 18 - March 31

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Re: March 18 - March 31

i take C.Harrison today @3.80 on marathonbet good luck all
Why? Christian Harrison isn't a big talent. It's even retarded that they gave him a wildcard. He's just the bad version of his older brother. Even in the ridiculous form Bellucci is in, he should win quite easily.

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Re: March 18 - March 31 Pablo Andujar to beat Viktor Troicki. 2.81 @ Pinnacle (4/10) ​At first sight this may seem a rather strange pick. But if you ask me this represents pure value. Despite him actually being a clay specialist, Andujar is not a total mug. The 2nd and 3rd set against Johnson were pretty good actually and he wasn't blown away by Haas either in the round following that. Andujar is able to play a solid game and the last thing Troicki will be wanting is someone who keeps the ball in play. The Serbian is having a disastrous year so far and certainly in this form crisis, he'll be hitting a lot of unforced errors if Andujar is able to keep getting the ball back. I foresee a tight match so overs could be a good bet as well, but I think that there's more value to be found in the moneyline.

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Re: March 18 - March 31 Back Alejandro Falla to beat Go Soeda for a 2/10 stake at 2.02 with Pinnacle Alejandro Falla should be the favourite here in my opinion. He is still the better player of the two and he has already played in Miami previously, so he should have no problems with the conditions. Both guys are playing poorly right now, but Falla should have the edge with his experience and decent left-handed serve. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/falla-vs-soeda-betting-alejandro-falla-should-be-too-strong-for-go-soeda-today-20130321 Back Kei Nishikori to win the 2nd Quarter for a 1/10 stake at 8.00 with Bet365 Kei Nishikori will have to deal with David Ferrer and Juan Martin del Potro, but I wouldn't be surprised by seeing him getting through to the semis in all honesty. After all, the Spaniard is not at his best right now and the Argentinian will have to deal with plenty of fatigue, so going with the third best player in the quarter looks like a good idea to me. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/atp-miami-betting-kei-nishikori-might-be-able-to-impress-in-miami-this-time-around-20130321 Back Svetlana Kuznetsova to win the 3rd Quarter for a 1/10 stake at 15.00 with Bet365 Well, Maria Sharapova looks set to win, but performing well for so many matches in a row can be a tough task even for her and I wouldn't be surprised by seeing her falling before the semis in Miami. And Svetlana Kuznetsova seems to be in the perfect position to take advantage of that. It is a long shot, of course, but one that deserves a small punt in my opinion. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/wta-miami-betting-svetlana-kuznetsova-looks-value-to-produce-a-big-performance-in-miami-20130321

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Re: March 18 - March 31 Robin Haase to beat David Goffin. 2.20 @ Pinnacle (8/10) Frankly, I was quite shocked to see the odds on this one. This match up is great for Haase to turn the tide and get back to winning ways. I believe he can do enough damage today with his serve and powerful forehand to beat Goffin today. I don't think Goffin will have a lot of shots on return and I do fancy the Dutchman to create sufficient chances to break the Belgian. Goffin himself is also in really bad shape at the moment, not winning any decent matches, highlighted by the double bagel at Rotterdam by Nieminen. This match up favors the Dutchman a lot as he can dictate rallies and finish them with his forehand. Although Goffin's court coverage is really good, he isn't playing solid enough at the moment to give that so called 'extra shot' that Haase will have to make. Two players in dire form, but the match up favors Haase too much.

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Re: March 18 - March 31 seems that Haase posted on Twitter that is sick and stays home and watches TV all day! I didn't checked, just found out, in the mean time I thought also that haase is going to be the winner! Now I have serious doubts for my bet and for this news from Twitter! Any other news with proven facts?

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Re: March 18 - March 31 checked now the twitter: https://twitter.com/robin_haase 7c7c1f373e00182fa24e3a482c03b3e2_normal.png Robin Haase@robin_haase 16 Mar When you are sick the best thing is you can watch tv-shows in bed. Worst thing when you are sick you can only watch tv-shows in bed. 7c7c1f373e00182fa24e3a482c03b3e2_normal.png Robin Haase@robin_haase 16 Mar Two things can happen when you work hard: 1) it will pay off 2) you get sick. I think now that my bet is ok. Haase to win! Probably was a little cold so he will be ok! Nice to take the good odds!

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Re: March 18 - March 31 Gimeno-Traver to beat (ML & +3.5 games) Istomin. 3.92 / 2.28 @ Pinnacle (4/10 & 7/10) Massive value on this one. 3.85 is really ridiculous. Reasoning like, Istomin loves hardcourt and Gimeno-Traver loves clay is too simplistic thinking for me in this one. Gimeno-Traver has a good serve and forehand and can definitely keep it very tight against Istomin and could possibly win it all together. Although Istomin is having a decent year, I do find him to play quite erratic at times, alternating between winners and unforced errors. Gimeno-Traver can certainly make Istomin hit that extra ball and frustrate him into making mistakes. ML is pure value but the handicap is a must take for me.

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Re: March 18 - March 31 I saw this as well, but I don't think it influences the game. On Dutch radio I just heard he had a minor flu but the illness was on the 16th so I don't think it matters that much. It only raises the price for us, which is good.

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Re: March 18 - March 31 Here are my selections today. Quite a few plus handicaps: - Robby Ginepri +3.5 games (v Yen-Hsun Lu) @ 1.85 with sbobet I've got a feeling Ginepri could be pretty competitive here. He raced through the qualies and is a very handy player when in the mood. He picks and chooses his tournaments these days, but it is worth remembering he is a former US Open semi-finalist who has plenty in his locker. He's lost both meeting with Lu previously (covering this handicap one of the times), yet Lu is a player who only really has one solid level. He's susceptible to someone like Ginepri if they play to their best. The American is a good place at the moment and can certainly keep this close. 3pts - Bernard Tomic -5 games AH (v Marc Gicquel) @ 1.94 with sbobet Too much of a gap in quality here. Tomic has played well this year and is proving that he can get results away from Australia. I'm impressed the veteran Frenchman made it to the main draw and he posted a good win over Brands in qualies, but Tomic is far more secure and varied off the deck than anything he's faced recently. Barring complacency, Tomic should be able to close this out pretty cosily. 3pts - Lukasz Kubot to beat Frank Dancevic @ 2.09 with sbobet There's nothing here for me that makes Dancevic the favourite. Kubot really should be winning this sort of match. The conditions are on the slow side, which the Pole prefers, and his aggressive game will put the Canadian under pressure. Dancevic can be very error-prone, and when his serve starts to fade, he's very average. Kubot's form isn't the best, but his awkward style should see him through this one. 3pts - Carlos Berlocq -4 games AH (v Guido Pella) @ 1.97 with sbobet By all accounts, Pella is a decent Challenger player, proven by his win at the finals last year, but we've seen no evidence of him stepping up to the main tour and performing. He was routed by Dodig last week in Indian Wells and also lost to Rochus in Dallas, so I don't think he's got an awful lot on his compatriot here. Berlocq's playing well. He's come off a good week in Indian Wells and is serving and hitting consistently. The slower Miami conditions will suit him more. Hard to see him not winning and covering the line. 3pts - Lukas Lacko +3.5 games (v Ivan Dodig) @ 1.88 with sbobet I've taken a bit of a chance here on Lacko, because there's the possibility he's still recovering from injury. However, he did beat Cipolla in Dallas last week, so there's evidently an upturn in his health. I've been impressed by the Slovak's progress in the past 12 months and he was playing well until he got injured. He defeated Dodig in their only match, last year in Tashkent, and although that was a Challenger, he's likely to prefer Miami more than Dodig. Lacko has a bit more juice and angle in his groundies and the fear with Dodig is that his serve goes missing. Worth a punt on Lacko. 3pts - Simone Bolelli +2.5 games (v Jesse Levine) @ 1.99 with sbobet I wouldn't have Bolelli on such a big plus here. There is very little to choose between these players. Levine has had a good year, but again, these conditions favour someone like the Italian, who hits big shots with plenty of spin and power on them. Levine's a grafter and he's gutsy, but ultimately he's opposable in this sort of match. The Italian is the classier and flashier player and if he brings his best tennis to the table, he'll win, let alone cover the line. 3pts :hope

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Re: March 18 - March 31

Why? Christian Harrison isn't a big talent. It's even retarded that they gave him a wildcard. He's just the bad version of his older brother. Even in the ridiculous form Bellucci is in' date=' he should win quite easily.[/quote'] Its purely on the actual form and statistics , i think if Harrison has no chance to win the odds on him is very low ... I dream an exploit of Harrison , he was impressive vs Gulbis on the 1st set and with a little bit more concentration i think he take the other set (vs Gulbis) sorry my bad english

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Re: March 18 - March 31

Its purely on the actual form and statistics , i think if Harrison has no chance to win the odds on him is very low ... I dream an exploit of Harrison , he was impressive vs Gulbis on the 1st set and with a little bit more concentration i think he take the set (vs Gulbis) sorry my bad english
Your first and biggest mistake is to compare the odds to how big the chance is that Harrison might win. If a player has odds of 1.10 doesn't mean he's a guaranteed winner. Second, how do you know his first set against Gulbis was impressive? Only by score? Because the match was not televised. Result orientated thinking isn't the way you want to go. The thing is even though Bellucci plays like an idiot this year, he's still 3 miles ahead of Harrison, rally wise. Have you ever even seen Harrison play? What are his strengths? What are his weaknesses? I think this bet is a bit based on air. Mind you, I don't want to mock you, I'm just trying to help you and give you my two cents. Lastly, even if Harrison gets a miracle win, I will still think it's a bad pick because the odds just don't justify it pre-match. Good luck though, I hope you win it.

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Re: March 18 - March 31

I see what you want to say for odds and you have right , i know ... I never saw played this player , it's a 5%bet :) i have a low stake on it .. Thanks for all you replies Regnavetto ;)
We're here to help each other mate. I hope you win. GL!

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Re: March 18 - March 31 ATP Miami - Igor Sijsling to beat Tommy Haas @ 2/1 BET 365 Strength (6/10) Good price on Sijsling here. He's a player that seems to be maturing and improving all the time (bar the odd flat performance) and he'll fancy his chances of finishing off what he couldn't in Delray Beach when he had Haas on the rack but injury curtailed his progress and forced him to retire. He lost a tight match to Nieminen in Indian Wells and flaffed about a bit in Dallas but I feel he's saving a big performance for Miami and a chance to make another statement that he belongs at this level. Haas is playing well but toiled a bit in Indian Wells and doesn't have a great record here. I don't think we'll see him at his best here and I fancy Sijsling to bully his way through with his powerful all court game. :hope

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Re: March 18 - March 31

bautista a. - zemlja 1 @ 1,80 bwin zemlja didnt play for few weeks due to some injury. Bautista is doing ok this season, he took djokovic into the TB in Indian Wells. Besides slow hard court should be advantage for Bautista.
bolelli - levine 1 @ 2' date=66 pinnacle Bolelli is just more talented player from these two. His got ups and downs this year, and basically last years he didn't live up to his abilities. However he shows from time to time his potential ( 1/2 final in Sao Paulo ). Slow hard courts are perfect for his game. As for Levine he entered top 100 this year but he is just average player. He leaves his heart out on the court but he just lucks skills. All in all this match is at best 50/50 and considering the price is worth betting on Bolelli.
Very unlucky with Bautista as he won first set. Unfortunately played in one ball bookie therefore a loss. However lady luck smiled at me in Bolelli match, Levine was serving for a match and had a MP on his own serve. All in all profit of + 0,66.

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Re: March 18 - March 31 E Bouchard v M Sharapova Over 16.5 games @ 1.98 [Pinnacle] Dont think this will be the walk in the park win odds of 1.04 on Sharapova suggest,as Bouchard has a decent game 14:$

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Re: March 18 - March 31 Back Anabel Medina Garrigues to beat Klara Zakopalova for a 2/10 stake at 2.77 with Pinnacle Fancy Medina Garrigues here, as she leads the H2H record 7-4 and should like the conditions much more than the Czech. She took a set off Zakopalova a few months ago in Paris on a much faster surface, so I would not be surprised by seeing her taking two on a slower one. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/medina-garrigues-vs-zakopalova-betting-anabel-medina-garrigues-looks-value-against-the-czech-20130322 Back Silvia Soler-Espinosa to beat Sorana Cirstea for a 2/10 stake at 2.85 with Unibet Sorana Cirstea has never done well in Miami and I think that she is set to struggle once again. The slower conditions just aren't to her liking, while Soler-Espinosa will be comfortable with just sitting back and defending. And she has beaten Cirstea before. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/soler-espinosa-vs-cirstea-betting-sorana-cirstea-looks-set-to-struggle-in-the-tough-conditions-20130322 Back Betthanie Mattek-Sands to beat Maria Kirilenko for a 2/10 stake at 4.42 with Pinnacle This is obviously a long shot, but Mattek-Sands can be pretty tricky to deal with and Kirilenko might struggle after such a grueling week over in Indian Wells. The Russian is naturally a decent favourite, but the odds on Mattek-Sands nevertheless look a touch high to me here. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/mattek-sands-vs-kirilenko-betting-maria-kirilenko-might-be-in-for-a-very-tough-battle-today-20130322

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Re: March 18 - March 31 Dudi Sela (+3.5 games) to beat Janko Tipsarevic. 2.05 @ Pinnacle (8/10 stake) These odds just scream massive value. Dudi Sela has had too fight his way through qualies here and surely should've built some rhythm. The small Israelian is most experienced on hardcourt and is someone that doesn't have a lot of firepower but can kind of counterpunch his way through matches with his excellent court coverage. Court coverage is really something that is key in this match and one of the main reasons for this pick. On the other side of the net Sela will be facing World #9 Janko Tipsarevic. The Serbian has really been floundering with his form since his injury at the Aussie Open and I'm opposing him until he gives me a reason to back him again. I think Sela will be able to frustrate Tipsarevic into making unforced errors by keeping the ball in play. Janko will have to really find his rhythm in this match if he wants to win it easily. There only encounter, way back in '09 ended in a 7-6 6-4 for the Serbian and that kind of result is also what I really think is plausible today. Grega Zemlja (+3.5 games) to beat Florian Mayer. 1.98 @ Pinnacle (7/10 stake) Again odds that represent a lot of value to me. I think the bookies are underrating Zemlja in this one because he was lucky to actually proceed to the next round against Bautista-Agut who was forced to withdraw with an injury, being a set up. However I think Zemlja has the game to keep it tight and maybe snatch the match from Mayer. Moreover because this pick is also mainly a pick against Mayer. The German is having a disastrous 2013 and can't win a decent match in months now. For me his unorthodox style of play is the reason for that: when in rhythm all can go well, but when he's struggling he actually has trouble showing any decent tennis on court. Zemlja has quite a good serve and groundstrokes with which he can put pressure on Mayer. Like in a lot of my picks, I speculate on people getting forced into making errors. Zemlja should certainly keep this one tight and has a shot on winning it if he takes over momentum and dictates points instead of having to defend a lot himself. I don't see enough value on the ML to take it, but the handicap looks very appealing to me. Albert Ramos (-1.5 games) to beat Juan Monaco. 1.81 @ Pinnacle (7/10 stake) Juan Monaco has been an absolute joke this year. Not only hasn't he won a match on hardcourt, he's been beaten on his favourite surface by players he should easily destroy. He's definitely in a funk and I don't think he can turn the tide today. We all know Ramos as a claycourt specialist, but I think he can find his way around the hardcourt surface a bit as well. Definitely with Monaco's returning game not being on par at the moment, Ramos should be able to get a decent amount of cheap points on serve, which is a good lefty one. Monaco can only win this is if he's on his normal game, being solid and forcing his opponents around the court. For some reason he's not able to do anything whatsoever close to his normal game. Ramos to nick this one. James Blake (+2.5 games) to beat Julien Benneteau. 1.81 @ Pinnacle (7/10 stake) Blake has been showing some good stuff, winning against Haase and putting up a good fight against Tsonga. In the first round he destroyed Ryan Harrison and now he faces Julien Benneteau. The Frenchman however has been struggling after his wonderful performance in Rotterdam and has lost against Janowicz and Dodig. I think Benneteau will be a bit rusty at the start of the tournament and Blake can profit from that with his opportunistic dominant 'hit-or-miss' style. Benneteau can easily win this match if he's solid and puts the pressure on Blake instead of the other way around. I don't think Benneteau is able to showcase enough of that play today and will have a bad day if Blake takes over momentum and is able to dictate points. Playing at home I fancy Blake to keep things tight. Perhaps 6-7 6-7? Just a gut feeling. Good luck. Victor Hanescu (+5.5 games) to beat Kei Nishikori. 1.71 @ Pinnacle (8/10 stake) I think the bookies are joking on this one. This one is purely based on ranking and perhaps the fact that Kusnetsov retired yesterday. Normally Nishikori should be able to move the bigger Romanian around the court and grind the points out. But Nishikori isn't peaking form wise momentarily. After winning Memphis he had to retire at Delray Beach and he's now back seeking the rhythm and form he had before. In a first match like this I think he should start quite rusty. Nishikori will win this but even though this is not Hanescu's favourite surface, he has a good enough serve to win at least 7 service games.

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Re: March 18 - March 31 Back Victor Hanescu to beat Kei Nishikoro. 5,75 @ bwin (3/10) I´d like to add Regnavettos statement of the match. For sure Nishikori is the better player and in normal condition, he would win that, but I´ve watched him play against Berlocq last week in Indian Wells, after he had retired in Delray Beach. He wasn´t only cruel and disastrous, but also seemed injured. He served like a woman with no speed both on first and second serve and was lucky that Berlocq´s returned were that bad either. Hanescu is a clay courter, but he´s experienced and the conditions in Miami will suit him. So, I see massive value in this pick. I´ll take this at a one ball bookie to be payed out, if Nishikori retires. Back Nikolay Davydenko (-2,5 games) to beat Alexandr Dolgopolov. 2,01 @ pinnacle (6/10) I don´t like backing Davydenko and I don´t like backing his opponent either, because many of his games seems strange or even fixed. But in last times Dabydenko was more "consistent" in his play, although the match against Lorenzi (according to some rumours he is well known for some fixing, too) seemed to be crazy again. 6:0 2:6 6:0. Typical Davydenko performance. So why do I take that? Because just on on-court reasons, Davydenko should win this game. Dolgopolov is out of shape, and Davydenko isn´t. He should profit from this as he is able to keep the ball in game until the opponents makes errors. Davydenko should also have the experience and the calm to respond on Dologpolovs flexible play. I could imagine the odds will drop more and more till the game begins. Back James Blake to beat Julien Benneteau. 2,33 @ pinnacle (5/10) I totally agree with Regnavettos analysis, but will take the more risky one. I think Blake can win this games, odds should be even. Daniela Hantuchova vs Sara Errani over 20,5 games. 1,94 @ marathonbet (6/10) The met two times this year, one game won Errani, one Hantuchova and both games went over three sets. The line seems to low here to give almost even odds. 7:5 6:3 would be enough. I´m also considering backing Hantuchova here, cause the odds just seem a bit too high (3,15). Errani should be favourite bacause she is in my opinion the better player and the slower conditions in Miami will suit her style of play. But it´s still hard court and she will face an opponent who has beaten her 5 times out of 8 games. What do you think? Back Urszula Radwanska to beat Ana Ivanovic. 2,56 @ marathonbet (5/10) I also see value in this pick. Two similar players meet here. In good days both of them can crash an opponent, and in bad days both can crash herself by making massive errors. Urszula is quite the opposite of her sister, way to inconsistent to be a top 10 player, but at recent times, she is in good shape, while Ivanovic isn´t. I just hope that Urszulas run continues and she is the one, that makes more points and less errors. Odds seem way to high here, considering Ivanovic as the player with more potential, but less shape.

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Re: March 18 - March 31

Back Victor Hanescu to beat Kei Nishikoro. 5' date=75 @ bwin (3/10) [/snip]
Nice analysis and good to see a new face around here. If I may give you a tip about your odds. I think it's better to take odds from a more reliable bookie like Pinnacle even if they may a bit lower. Bwin and Marathon are joke bookies that limit winning punters really fast.

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Re: March 18 - March 31

Nice analysis and good to see a new face around here. If I may give you a tip about your odds. I think it's better to take odds from a more reliable bookie like Pinnacle even if they may a bit lower. Bwin and Marathon are joke bookies that limit winning punters really fast.
Thanks for your advice. I chose bwin here, because they pay out when one ball is played, and I can see Nishikori retire here. At marathonbet I just opened a new account to test a new one, after Betvictor had just closed my account there :sad

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Re: March 18 - March 31

Back Victor Hanescu to beat Kei Nishikoro. 5' date=75 @ bwin (3/10) I´d like to add Regnavettos statement of the match. For sure Nishikori is the better player and in normal condition, he would win that, but I´ve watched him play against Berlocq last week in Indian Wells, after he had retired in Delray Beach. He wasn´t only cruel and disastrous, but also seemed injured. He served like a woman with no speed both on first and second serve and was lucky that Berlocq´s returned were that bad either. Hanescu is a clay courter, but he´s experienced and the conditions in Miami will suit him. So, I see massive value in this pick. I´ll take this at a one ball bookie to be payed out, if Nishikori retires. Back Nikolay Davydenko (-2,5 games) to beat Alexandr Dolgopolov. 2,01 @ pinnacle (6/10) I don´t like backing Davydenko and I don´t like backing his opponent either, because many of his games seems strange or even fixed. But in last times Dabydenko was more "consistent" in his play, although the match against Lorenzi (according to some rumours he is well known for some fixing, too) seemed to be crazy again. 6:0 2:6 6:0. Typical Davydenko performance. So why do I take that? Because just on on-court reasons, Davydenko should win this game. Dolgopolov is out of shape, and Davydenko isn´t. He should profit from this as he is able to keep the ball in game until the opponents makes errors. Davydenko should also have the experience and the calm to respond on Dologpolovs flexible play. I could imagine the odds will drop more and more till the game begins. Back James Blake to beat Julien Benneteau. 2,33 @ pinnacle (5/10) I totally agree with Regnavettos analysis, but will take the more risky one. I think Blake can win this games, odds should be even. Daniela Hantuchova vs Sara Errani over 20,5 games. 1,94 @ marathonbet (6/10) The met two times this year, one game won Errani, one Hantuchova and both games went over three sets. The line seems to low here to give almost even odds. 7:5 6:3 would be enough. I´m also considering backing Hantuchova here, cause the odds just seem a bit too high (3,15). Errani should be favourite bacause she is in my opinion the better player and the slower conditions in Miami will suit her style of play. But it´s still hard court and she will face an opponent who has beaten her 5 times out of 8 games. What do you think? Back Urszula Radwanska to beat Ana Ivanovic. 2,56 @ marathonbet (5/10) I also see value in this pick. Two similar players meet here. In good days both of them can crash an opponent, and in bad days both can crash herself by making massive errors. Urszula is quite the opposite of her sister, way to inconsistent to be a top 10 player, but at recent times, she is in good shape, while Ivanovic isn´t. I just hope that Urszulas run continues and she is the one, that makes more points and less errors. Odds seem way to high here, considering Ivanovic as the player with more potential, but less shape.
I am very new on here, well....not that new, because I have for long being a regular outside visitor enjoying all the powerful tips that has come from this forum. I like your picks but particularly Hantuchova. Not because she has won 5 out of 8 h2hs, but because I think it is about time for the superhuman Errani to lose early in a tournament. She has really playd loads of tennis in the last few months,

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