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Cheltenham 2014....


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I just wanted to get everyones thoughts on which horses will be going where next year as I quite fancy putting on some ante-post bets. The big one for me is Bob's Worth. I don't see anything beating him next year if he gets there in 1 piece. Sprinter Sacre for the Champion Chase again but you will probably be lucky to get 1/4. I quite fancy Big Bucks to return in the World Hurdle and regain his crown. The really tricky one is the Champion Hurdle... I don't really know what to make of it. I don't think Hurricane Fly will win it next year but then what do you take him on with. Our Connor was so impressive today but then so was The New One and no doubt MTOY will be a contender. Where will Simonsig go next year? Gold Cup - Bobs Worth Champion Hurdle - My Tent or Yours / The New One / Our Connor Champion Chase - Sprinter Sacre World Hurdle - Big Bucks

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Re: Cheltenham 2014.... I think the Gold Cup is one to stay away from at the moment, if Sprinter Sacre/Cue Card/Harry Topper/Back In Focus go down that route, we could be in for an unbelievable Gold Cup next year. But i do agree, Bobs Worth would be the likely winner for next year, although 9/2 is plenty short enough with a full 12 months to wait again. Our Conor is a great bet for the Champion Hurdle next year, the Fly wouldn't have come near him judging on their performances at the festival this week, IMO.

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Re: Cheltenham 2014.... I think Bob's Worth is the most solid of any ante-post bets for next year. I would be quite happy to take 9/2 now as if he does get there then he will be much shorter and I would be pretty confident of him winning. That's my opinion though and I will happily admit I have no sense whatsoever of what is value and what is not! To me Bob's Worth could quite easily become a multiple Gold Cup winner. I know they said that about Long Run when he won but Bob's Worth is a different animal. Even today when he was slightly hampered by SC falling at the 3rd last and fell about 7 lengths behind the leaders, I was never worried about him not getting there. He made up the ground without Barry having to go for him and it was only after the 2nd last that Barry used his whip and he just took off and went past them with ease.

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Re: Cheltenham 2014....

I think Bob's Worth is the most solid of any ante-post bets for next year
Looks like the bookies agree with you, to be honest i thought Silvianaco Conti was going like the winner when falling, who knows what would have happened, i would rather have Conti at 10s than Bobs Worth at 9/2 myself.
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Re: Cheltenham 2014....

Looks like the bookies agree with you' date=' to be honest i thought Silvianaco Conti was going like the winner when falling, who knows what would have happened, i would rather have Conti at 10s than Bobs Worth at 9/2 myself.[/quote'] He may have been travelling the best when he fell but I very much doubt he would have stayed on after 2 out better than Bob's Worth. That's what I think anyway
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Re: Cheltenham 2014.... Bobs Worth only 3-1 at bet365. The Irish Novices were miles ahead this year so I think most of my antepost will revolve around theirs once again. Champagne Fever was good too yet he's available at 10/1 whilst runner up MTOY is 6's for the Champion. Still think Our Connor was the most impressive winner I've seen for a long time and at 6s that would be my choice. I will review all the big races over the next few weeks and let the dust settle as I think because a horse has won for you one can sometimes become blinkered to their chances.

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Re: Cheltenham 2014....

Big Bucks 4/1
Agree on this, will also be chucking it in a double with Sprinter Sacre @ 13-2ish! MTOY in next years Champion hurdle for me! Our Conor was visually impressive but i'm always going to go against a 5 yr old with little experience for the Champion hurdle esp. at his current price! If he beats Hurricane Fly in next years trials i'll sit up and take notice, but until that happens i'm definitely against him!
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Re: Cheltenham 2014.... I thought Un Atout ran a good race for one so inexperienced. Might be one to have on your side for next year. I think 33/1 Lord Windermere for the Gold Cup looks fair enough as I think he would have won regardless of Boston Bob falling.

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Re: Cheltenham 2014.... Have to agree with Our Conor leaving a major impression with me from the festival. Bobs Worth was just as class to watch although it would have been interesting to see what Silviniaco Conti had left had he remained in it for the duration. My hunch would be he'd have come 3rd at best. Sir Des Champs' jumping improved markedly from his early season form i thought and at only 7yrs old maybe there is still more to come in terms of leaving less in the fences and in doing so having a bit more in reserve for the finish . One im keen to keep tabs on is Shutthefront door. I backed him in the Pertemps where he was piloted the long way round, given the majority of the race on outside of a huge field of runners until about the final 1.5f when he was switched to the inside and still ended up coming a creditable 4th, only beaten by 3l. More to come in the future from that one i felt.

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Re: Cheltenham 2014.... In my opinion Our Conor 4/1 - 5/1 for the Champion Hurdle is one of the worst ante post prices I've ever seen. Not only have you got the 5 year old stat against you (approx 1 in 90) you have the fact he may be much better with cut, and the form of the Triumph itself might not be great. He was very impressive, but his time wasn't anything that outstanding even taking the ground into consideration. I doubt there would have been a higher rated 4 year old after the Triumph tackling the CH, but at those odds he represents terrible value imo when you think of the competition he is likely to be facing

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Re: Cheltenham 2014.... Early fancy's for next year are Bobs Worth (GC), Sprinter Sacre (CC), My Tent Or Yours (CH), Champage Fever (Arkle) and Cue Card (Ryanair). All these will be targeted at these races and if they get to Cheltenham and line up will hopefully run big races. Champion Hurdle looks biggest puzzle to solve at this stage but one I would not back at this stage is Our Conner who is to short in price against older more experienced horses. Would need to show some good form against some of the leading contenders next season to justify a bet. Early contenders for me in this race would be Hurricane Fly (age only concern) and My Tent Or Yours who will both be targeted at this race, possibly The New One if dropping back in distance and possible Henderson 2nd choice in Simonsig (dependent on Grandoeut's performance against Hurricane Fly).

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Re: Cheltenham 2014.... I just have this feeling that Far West will turn into a decent horse next year. It struggled off the bridle at Cheltenham and then came back again and ran on for 2nd. Looked an absolute picture in the paddock (see BH photos). Will still be on my list for next year.

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Re: Cheltenham 2014.... The most difficult race will be the Champion Hurdle, Hurdle races can be unpredictable, from novice Grade 1 to the best Grade 1, is a huge stepping stone, and till a horse has done it, You never know. I would have 4 or 5 in a list, and would not be surprised if any of them won,,If any!. Sprinter Sacre, Will always stay at 2 miles, I doubt they will go to 2mile 4f, if it aint broke...NAP if he turns up next year, QM. Simonsig is the hidden gem...I doubt he will ever race over 2 miles again, He will only get stronger, and i beleive, that NH will take his time with the 7yo. I do think he is an absolute shoe in for the Ryanair...5/1 ish, im sure they will also consider the small race on Boxing Day, 7/1-8/1..MMM Big Bucks, Is a formality if he turns up for the World, No Problem. Bobs worth is a good thing for the GC, he won it on the worst ground he could have hoped for, and DESTROYED them from the bottom of the hill.. Silv Conti, would have finished 4th if he had stood up, could never have beaten the front 3 up the hill, Not in a million, The bookies and press will tout Silv Conti through out the year....Ill tell you all this, I bet he dont go for the ARGENTO!,

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Re: Cheltenham 2014....

Silv Conti, would have finished 4th if he had stood up, could never have beaten the front 3 up the hill, Not in a million, The bookies and press will tout Silv Conti through out the year....Ill tell you all this, I bet he dont go for the ARGENTO!,
I will email ATR to see if they can find out Silvianco Contis Betfair in running price coming to the 2nd last,, what price do you think it was,?1.000.000 / 1. I He was going better than any of them and the in running price would also have reflected his chances of beating the other 3 up the hill, I would be very surprised if he wasn't the in running fav before he fell. I dont think there is any hype over Sivianco Conti for the future if anything the hype is for Bobs worth.
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Re: Cheltenham 2014....

I just have this feeling that Far West will turn into a decent horse next year. It struggled off the bridle at Cheltenham and then came back again and ran on for 2nd. Looked an absolute picture in the paddock (see BH photos). Will still be on my list for next year.
I agree Bowles. I had him backed each-way at cheltenham this year, I felt his jumping let him down, very sketchy jumper, but a very powerful horse that clearly loves that Cheltenham hill, and I am sure the Nicholls yard will be in much better shape next year. I thought it was a very eye-catching run, even though he was well beat.
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Re: Cheltenham 2014....

I will email ATR to see if they can find out Silvianco Contis Betfair in running price coming to the 2nd last,, what price do you think it was,?1.000.000 / 1. I He was going better than any of them and the in running price would also have reflected his chances of beating the other 3 up the hill, I would be very surprised if he wasn't the in running fav before he fell. I dont think there is any hype over Sivianco Conti for the future if anything the hype is for Bobs worth.
Conti was 9/4 in-running when he fell, and there is no way he would have been out of the first 3 if he had stayed on his feet.
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Re: Cheltenham 2014....

Conti was 9/4 in-running when he fell' date=' and there is no way he would have been out of the first 3 if he had stayed on his feet.[/quote'] I think that's about right, 9/4 with 5 or 6 runners left in with a chance if not a bit generous, .Credit to Bobs Worth for a gutsy performance but it was not all down to him staying on up the hill, the 3 other runners were stopping before the last giving him a chance to battle back, We will never know but IMO i think Conti was going so well he would have been clear over the last giving Bobsworth too much ground to make up if he did have problems getting up the hill. i could not take 7/2 for Bobsworth for next years race when Conti is priced at 9/1
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Re: Cheltenham 2014.... FIRST AND FORMOST HE FELL AT THE 3RD LAST..with 3 furlongs to go , mostley up hill. I have forgotten the amount of horses on the bridle at the bottom of that hill, and not get home. Coming to the 3rd last. In the GC He was 3.4 to back, The same as Long Run,,SDS wa 6/4..Bobsworth was 4/1 but went bigger on the home turn, but in 15 strides went odds on. Someone please show me concreate evidence that he would have got up that hill, when 1. You had 3 champions around him 2. The splits between the 3rd last and last were lung bursting. As for saying the hype is around Bobsworth....Been there done it, No Hype required.:ok

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Re: Cheltenham 2014.... Have a look at the replay.Conti was going very comfortable with 4 fences to go, the leaders tried to kick on at the 4th last but Conti had no problem making 3 lengths in a few strides and ready to pounce , 7 min, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y3q6tWuMokk The leaders cam under pressure jumping the 2nd last giving Bobsworth the chance to get back into the race very quickly into the last, Conti would not of been under pressure 2 out, i think he would of galloped clear without even pressing the button as the leaders came under pressure very quickly, that would of been the obvious tactics if the horse was going so well, he would not have needed to much to get him up the hill, Bobsworth never flew up the hill ,he battled past beaten horse who also gamely gave there all,a war of attrition,the question is would Bobsworth have made up a lot of ground even if Conti had folded up the hill, i doubt it. I do not acccept Conti would have folded up the hill but we all know we will never know, so it cant be proven either way.

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Re: Cheltenham 2014.... Bobs Worth has flown up the hill every time he has raced at Cheltenham. Maybe the eventual 7l winning margin has been exaggerated a little but I wouldn't have seen many horses beat Bob up that hill. Especially when you consider that SC is unproven on that type of grueling finish. Its all about opinions though!

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Re: Cheltenham 2014.... Conti wouldn't have won in my opinion, but would have been 2nd. I agree Bowles, if there was a confirmed front runner, it would have played into Long Run's hands a lot more, he is a grinder, not a front-runner. definately wouldn't give up on him as of yet.

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Re: Cheltenham 2014.... This is bugging me now, show me any concreate evidence that conti stays 3 2 with a uphill finish. The other 3 all have.. Silv Conti will never ever win a GC whilst taking on Bobsworth and the 2nd n 3rd..Agree Long run would have been 2nd best with a Front runner to follow, And if its Good Good/soft, It only gets worse. Silv Conti is a flat track horse. The Giant Bolster is about a good of a marker as you could possibly get, That form is hard fact, from that you should be able to work things out.

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Re: Cheltenham 2014....

This is bugging me now, show me any concreate evidence that conti stays 3 2 with a uphill finish. The other 3 all have.. Silv Conti will never ever win a GC whilst taking on Bobsworth and the 2nd n 3rd..Agree Long run would have been 2nd best with a Front runner to follow, And if its Good Good/soft, It only gets worse. Silv Conti is a flat track horse. The Giant Bolster is about a good of a marker as you could possibly get, That form is hard fact, from that you should be able to work things out.
Give it a rest.
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Re: Cheltenham 2014....

Don't forget that long run had to force the pace so left little in the tank after the 2nd last Had there been a confirmed front runner things may have been different perhaps ?? Not saying LR would have won
Agree 100%, I was thinking :clap at the time for Conti,I think they did try to kick away and it took it's toll very quickly, they were suffering as you say at the 2nd last, the surprise is how did they still manage to give Bobsoworth a race up the hill after being under so much pressure for so long.?
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Re: Cheltenham 2014....

Agree 100%' date=' I was thinking :clap at the time for Conti,I think they did try to kick away and it took it's toll very quickly, they were suffering as you say at the 2nd last, the surprise is how did they still manage to give Bobsoworth a race up the hill after being under so much pressure for so long.?
both are proven stayers i feel and both like Cheltenham. You either get the trip here or you dont. LOng Run has proved every time that it does.
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Re: Cheltenham 2014.... A few horses have been added to the betting for the Supreme Novice Hurdle next year. Briar Hill 9/1 PP - Willie Mullins Champion Bumper Winner Golantilla 14/1 PP and SJ - 3rd in champion Bumper. Won 3m maiden PTP. Looks as if further would be better? Regal Encore 14/1 PP - 2nd in champion bumper. Would breeding suggest needs further? Empiracle 16/1 SJ - Will be 7yo. Moyle Park 25/1 SJ Diamond King 33/1 SJ The Liquidator 33/1 SJ - 4th in this years Champion Bumper. Looked to be done for pace but stayed on well. Would probably be suited by longer. Anyone know anything about these horses and where they would be serious contenders for the Supreme Novice? Or any to possibly consider or look out for next season?

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