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CzechPunter

March 4 - March 17

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Re: March 4 - March 17 De Bakker vs Lama. Under 20.5 games. 1.83 @ Bet365 (9/10) Easy pick. De Bakker is starting to pick on some form on the clay Challenger tour. He's a top tier at these tournaments and should be able to dismiss his opponent quite comfortably with relatively good court coverage and forehand, backed up with a decent serve. His opponent is a 19 year old nobody, ranked 662, which is his career high. In 2012 he couldn't even compete at Future level and is now in the best form he's ever had. What I could see from the bad quality stream against Pashanksi, is that this guy is nothing special and that it's no surprise that he hasn't even won a Future tournament. Wouldn't be surprised if the Dutchman bagles him a set. 6-4 6-4 should be easy.

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Re: March 4 - March 17 Haase to beat Blake 1.95. Pinnacle (7/10) Crazy odds on Haase. He lost to Simon and a Gulbis who was on fire. Before that he reached the half final with quite erratic play. Even though I find Haase to be erratic in general as well, I don't know how Blake is being so overrated at this point, as he has still not won a decent match in 2013 and is even more prone to making errors. Also this match up is in favor of the Dutchman. This match will be all about serve and hard hitting as both players possess a good serve and good forehand. However the difference is that Haase is the better player and he can handle battling a power opponent better, rather than a skillful opponent that mixes it up and puts Haase in awkward situations. This match will be won by the player with the least unforced errors. I think Haase is the more solid and stable player of the two.

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Re: March 4 - March 17 Jelena Jankovic vs Svetlana Kuznetsova This is an interesting game between two former heavyweights of the womens game, which I suspect will be a lot closer than the odds are suggesting. Both ladies have been in good form since the start of the season, with Jankovic particularly impressing in Bogata last month, taking a confidence boosting first tour title in over three years. This followed on from decent performances at the back end of last season and in Australia in January and showed she was over the abdomen injury that dogged here after the Aussie Open and her preparation for Dubai. She’ll meet the Russian Kuznetsova in good shape, but still quite erratic with a number of her matches this season being quite up and down and she’s been taken into three setters a number of times. The head to head swings slighty in Jankovic’s favour, and its worth noting that the Serb has never failed to take a set of Kuznetsova in any of their outdoor hard matches. Jankovic to win a set 1.73 at skybet (4 units) Jankovic to win 2.75 at bet365 (2 units) Sara Errani vs Lourdes Dominguez Lino Ok this still seems a little crazy but there is definite value on Lino at this price so I’m going to take a punt with a low stake. Its fully possible that Errani may have learnt from her mistakes (and she’s certainly helped by the first round bye) but last year she came into this event after winning on the clay in Acapulco the week before and bombed at the first hurdle losing to Vania King. Of course she’s had a longer period to adjust but having already played a lot of tennis this season with runs in Paris and Dubai prior to her win in Mexico last week as well as plenty of doubles action, then it’s not inconceivable that she may try and conserve something here in an event where she has nothing to defend. There will certainly be number of clay court events (esp Budapest and Barcelona) in the next couple of months that will be a priority because of her successes last year. If she isn’t fully focussed then Lino might be able to trouble her. The head to head is one sided but they’ve all been on clay but Lino was able to take a set in the only hard court match they’ve played. She’s also defending points from last year where she made the round of 32 beating Lisicki on her way and that’s another slight advantage that could balance things up. Lino to win a set 3.75 at skybet (2 units) Lino to win 9.0 at bet365 (1 unit) :hope

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Re: March 4 - March 17 March 9th, 2013 Shimadzu Kyoto Challenger - Japan Matthew Barton vs Marco Chiudinelli Current Odds 2.10 Barton Pick: Matthew Barton to win. Odds 2.10 @Bet365 Matthew Barton is currently ranked 221 in the world. This is actually the highest he has ever ranked, and if you look at his ranking trajectory it is a steady incline since 2010. Marco Chiudinelli on the other hand peaked in 2010 with a career high ranking of 52. His current ranking is 165 (down 22 this week). While Chiudinelli has seemed to have reached his peak and leveled off, Barton is on the rise. Even though the current odds are with Chiudinelli the ranking momentum is with Barton. Matthew Barton to win over Marco Chiudinelli. All the Best, Bloke

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Re: March 4 - March 17

Jankovic to win a set 1.73 at skybet (4 units) Jankovic to win 2.75 at bet365 (2 units) Lino to win a set 3.75 at skybet (2 units) Lino to win 9.0 at bet365 (1 unit) :hope
Jankovic takes a set indeed (1:2) and Lino gets a set as well (1:2). What a great write up, Dylan! :ok

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Re: March 4 - March 17 Thanks steway

Jelena Jankovic vs Svetlana Kuznetsova Jankovic to win a set 1.73 at skybet (4 units):ok Jankovic to win 2.75 at bet365 (2 units) :\ Sara Errani vs Lourdes Dominguez Lino Lino to win a set 3.75 at skybet (2 units) :ok Lino to win 9.0 at bet365 (1 unit) :\
It's a shame neither of Jankovic or Lino could take the decisive third set, but still +5.42 for the night, taking me back up to +12.65 for the tournament.

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Re: March 4 - March 17 March 9th, 2013 Copa Cachantun - Santiago Chile Antonio Veic Vs. Thiemo De Bakker Pick: Antonio Veic to Win Match. Odds 2.20 @ Bet365.com This should be a really good match up. Both players have done well in their last 3 matches. Antonio Veic is currently ranked 127 which is near his career high of 119. He has had a steady and consistant rise in the rankings since 2008. Year to date he has won slightly more than he has won at 89 and 80. Thiemo De Bakker is currently climbing back up to his careeer high of 40 but still has a ways to go at 111th. Looking at the year to date matches won, Bakker has the advantage having won 80 and lost only 42. Bakker also has the advantage in the odds department with current odds of 1,61. He is definately the favorite. However the one time that these two have gone head to head professionaly, it wasn't Bakker who came out on top, it was Veic. Given the fact the Veic is one up on Bakker in head to head and the current slow but consistent rise of Veic I am going to give the edge to Veic on this one. All the Best, Bloke

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Re: March 4 - March 17 ^^ If you check the stats De Bakker has a superior record on Clay at all levels (ATP, Challenger and Futures), hence favouritism. However I thought he made hard work of a weak opponent yesterday, making quite a few unforced errors, whereas Veic was more solid. Probably one to watch before taking an opinion!

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Re: March 4 - March 17 Some great calls by Dylan in recent weeks :ok Taking one for today in Indian Wells... Leonardo Mayer to beat Mikhail Youzhny @ 9/4 BET 365 Strength (6/10) Until I see something from Youzhny that indicates he might someday wake up from his malaise, then I'll continue to fade him against hungry up and comers like Leo Mayer. There only seems to be a couple of tournaments a year that you can guarantee Youzhny turning up in these days and those are Zagreb and a couple of clay court tournaments in in Europe around Spring. He especially doesn't seem to be particularly enamoured by this mini-American swing and didn't even play here or Miami last year and his results in Indian Wells over the years are unspectacular to the say the least. Couple that with the aforementioned malaise and fog he seems to be meandering through then Mayer looks a good bet. He's a clay courter but trying to make an impression on hard court, and has posted some decent results on the surface over the last year (we won't mention Donald Young). He's got a pretty big all round game and I think the slow conditions and high bounce suit his game, whereas I don't think they mesh well with Youzhny's game. I wouldn't trust his backhand if he tries to come over the backhand(which he usually does) with alot of bounce, so we could well see errors on that wing. Overall Mayer with a match under his belt here and not having expended much energy on the recent clay swing, should go well. :hope

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Re: March 4 - March 17 Hmmm, I'm considering Mayer here myself Slider, he hasn't a great record on hard courts but with Youznhy all over the shop in his matches this season he might not need to put that much pressure on the Russian to snatch at least a set here . Anyway one taken for the first matches of the day; Shuai Peng vs Alex Dulgheru It’s great to have Dulgheru back and I believe unlike many players that return too earlier that she and her team have been managing her return to action well. This has meant she’s fresh and raring to go at Indian Wells. I wanted to take a punt on her in round one against de Brito but felt it was advisable to wait and see how she held up and by all accounts she put in a good performance, no concerns about her knee or her general game taking a convincing win against the Portuguese qualifier. If she continues that form into this one then she stands half a chance against a player struggling for consistency over the last year (particulary in events outside of Asia) and one she leads 1-0 in the H2H thanks to a comprehensive win on the Miami hard courts back in 2011. Dulgheru to win a set 1.83 at bwin (4 units) Dulgheru to win 3.25 at Stan James (2 units) :hope

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Re: March 4 - March 17 Good to see sliders Mayer pick come through.

Shuai Peng vs Alex Dulgheru It’s great to have Dulgheru back and I believe unlike many players that return too earlier that she and her team have been managing her return to action well. This has meant she’s fresh and raring to go at Indian Wells. I wanted to take a punt on her in round one against de Brito but felt it was advisable to wait and see how she held up and by all accounts she put in a good performance, no concerns about her knee or her general game taking a convincing win against the Portuguese qualifier. If she continues that form into this one then she stands half a chance against a player struggling for consistency over the last year (particulary in events outside of Asia) and one she leads 1-0 in the H2H thanks to a comprehensive win on the Miami hard courts back in 2011. Dulgheru to win a set 1.83 at bwin (4 units) :ok Dulgheru to win 3.25 at Stan James (2 units):\
Well this one was closer that I thought after Dulgheru was bageled in the first set. Still she didn't quite have the legs to complete the turnaround with Peng winning 60 46 63. +1.18 units profits

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Re: March 4 - March 17 Back Philipp Petzschner (+1.5 sets) to beat Kei Nishikori for a 3/10 stake at 2.40 with Pinnacle Back Philipp Petzschner to beat Kei Nishikori for a 1/10 stake at 4.84 with Pinnacle Nishikori has apparently never done much in Indian Wells and it remains to be seen whether he will be able to negotiate things with this surface this time around or not. At the prices on offer, however, I am willing to bet on him not being able to do that, especially after seeing Petzschner outplaying Dmitry Tursunov in straight sets. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/petzschner-vs-nishikori-betting-the-german-can-be-a-tough-opponent-for-kei-nishikori Back E.Donskoy/A.Murray - Over 18.5 games for a 3/10 stake at 2.10 with with Paddy Power Back Evgeny Donskoy (+1.5 sets) to beat Andy Murray for a 1/10 stake at 5.00 with Paddy Power Murray has not played since the Australian Open and has a rather poor record in Indian Wells, so not sure whether he really deserves this favoritism. Donskoy is a solid player that has been rising through the ranks for quite some time now, so I fancy him to be able to build on his easy win against Ito and trouble the Scot today. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/donskoy-vs-murray-betting-andy-murray-might-be-in-for-a-surprisingly-tough-encounter-in-indian-wells-

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Re: March 4 - March 17 Facundo Bagnis - Thiemo de Bakker: 2 (HC -2,5 games); @ 1,90 with bet365 Between all this master tennis here´s one chellenger pick. It´s the Santiago final, and I see Thiemo de Bakker win this quite easy. He´s by far the better player, good serve, straight wins in the tournament so far. He is playing challenger to get back on track, and he seems to be successfull in that. Facundo Bagnis is neither a good nor a bad player, just nothing special at all. He has been quite struggling to get to the final, but in my opinion he won´t win that.

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Re: March 4 - March 17 One already taken for the WTA today. Maria Kirilenko vs Mallory Burdette I’m keen to get on the American Burdette here as she’s got plenty of momentum under her belt and is playing well on these Californian hard courts which are suiting her big hitting style. With Kirilenko still on the mend following her shoulder operation after the Doha event, Burdette does have the attributes that could unsettle and really test the Russian here. By all accounts Kirilenko didn’t look comfortable for much of her second round match up against McHale and it seems a case that the McHale lost her head at a set and a break up. I don’t know enough about Burdette to rule out the possibility of that happening here, but unlike her American compatriot on Friday, she’ll be on an outside court with no TV coverage scheduled so the pressure and expectation should be a little bit less. Burdette +1.5 sets 2.08 at Sporting Bet (3 units) Burdette to win 3.75 at Ladbrokes (1.5 units) :hope I also think there a little bit of value on Jo Larrson today up against Sara Errani, for similar reasons to those which I wrote about in Errani's previous match against Lino. Errani (as well as her Spanish opponent) played terribly in that match, both struggled to hold serve for large periods of the match, so if Larsson can get her serve going then she may be able to get a foothold. At odds of 6.0 for the win its worth some consideration, although the H2H is massively in Errani's favour (5-0)

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Re: March 4 - March 17

Facundo Bagnis - Thiemo de Bakker: 2 (HC -2' date=5 games); @ 1,90 with bet365 Between all this master tennis here´s one chellenger pick. It´s the Santiago final, and I see Thiemo de Bakker win this quite easy. He´s by far the better player, good serve, straight wins in the tournament so far. He is playing challenger to get back on track, and he seems to be successfull in that. Facundo Bagnis is neither a good nor a bad player, just nothing special at all. He has been quite struggling to get to the final, but in my opinion he won´t win that.
Don't know if you saw De Bakker against Lama but he was really erratic on return. Yes, on serve De Bakkers looks good, powerful. But Bagnis could frustrate him with powerful shots and Bagnis has a decent serve himself. I hope however for De Bakker to finish Bagnis as I do not like him at all.

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Re: March 4 - March 17 Pablo Andujar to beat Tommy Haas @ 6/1 BET 365 Strength (4/10) Smaller stakes here but feel Andujar is being underestimated a bit. He's touted as a clay courter but apart from Casablanca(which he's won two years in a row) he's actually better on hard court than the dirt. He played well here last year taking a set off Djokovic and over the last couple of years he pushed quite a few top guys pretty close in these sort of tournaments. He seems to be enjoy playing in America that's for sure. Haas is a class player despite his age and he also doesn't make a habit of losing too often in these types of matches but he was quite close to losing against Sijsling in Delray and ended up losing a tough match against Gulbis in the semi-finals so he could still be suffering a bit of a hangover from that. He's 34 as well and has had a pretty tough schedule, and although he's always been consistent I think he could be vulnerable here against a player he's expected to beat easily and especially in conditions that are an acquired taste. He lost to Granollers here last year and if Andujar plays as well as he can he's capable of pulling off the upset. :hope

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Re: March 4 - March 17

Pablo Andujar to beat Tommy Haas @ 6/1 BET 365 Strength (4/10) Smaller stakes here but feel Andujar is being underestimated a bit. He's touted as a clay courter but apart from Casablanca(which he's won two years in a row) he's actually better on hard court than the dirt. He played well here last year taking a set off Djokovic and over the last couple of years he pushed quite a few top guys pretty close in these sort of tournaments. He seems to be enjoy playing in America that's for sure. Haas is a class player despite his age and he also doesn't make a habit of losing too often in these types of matches but he was quite close to losing against Sijsling in Delray and ended up losing a tough match against Gulbis in the semi-finals so he could still be suffering a bit of a hangover from that. He's 34 as well and has had a pretty tough schedule, and although he's always been consistent I think he could be vulnerable here against a player he's expected to beat easily and especially in conditions that are an acquired taste. He lost to Granollers here last year and if Andujar plays as well as he can he's capable of pulling off the upset. :hope
This is a really intriguing one. While I think Haas should have enough to win this, Andujar seems a ridiculous price. You can get above 3.00 for him to win a set, which also appears generous. His form recently has been ropey, but the slower hard-court conditions in Indian Wells suit him no end, plus he's got a lot of ranking points to defend. Interesting one to watch. Hopefully you've spotted a gem.

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Re: March 4 - March 17 Nice pick by Czech on Donskoy to take a set. Lets hope that a few other picks can come in tonight.

Maria Kirilenko vs Mallory Burdette Burdette +1.5 sets 2.08 at Sporting Bet (3 units) :ok Burdette to win 3.75 at Ladbrokes (1.5 units) :\
Well I turned a profit here, but again frustrated that the third set didn’t go the way I was hoping for. Still up to +15.57 for the first week of this tournament. There isn’t much catching my eye tomorrow, with only Georges in my thinking at the moment. I will however take a double on two normally pretty reliable performers. Stosur to beat Peng and Anderson to beat Nieminen 2.08 at Stan James (3 units) I was a bit wary that Anderson may struggle coming back into such a big event so soon after surgery but he’s proved his fitness with 2 excellent performances. His serving was incredible against Hanescu, just conceding one break point in the first service game, but after that the Romanian wasn’t able to get anywhere near the big serving Anderson. Then to come through a match against Ferrer must give even more of a confidence boost going into this one against Nieminen who he has a 3-0 H2H record against. Whilst the Finn has done well in recent weeks I always get the feeling that he knows his level and he’s unlikely to really upset the odds that much. Both he and Anderson are somewhat similar players but there is no doubt that Anderson possesses the better game and form at the moment. I wouldn’t read too much into the victory over Verdasco, by all accounts the Spaniard was probably less than 50% fit, still struggling with his neck and Nieminen is the type of guy who generally crushes weak opponents, so I’m not expecting another performance like from the Finn anytime soon. After the nightmare of the Aussie Open / Fed cup performances Sam Stosur has come back with stronger showings in the Middle East and followed it up with a good win in her opening match here against the lively Keys. That I feel was a good match for Stosur, a real test to make sure she was fully prepared for Indian Wells where she needs a good run to properly kick start her season. With Peng up next there is a great chance to reach the last 16 as her Chinese opponent will probably offer less resistance than Keys did, and has been comprehensively beaten by the Australian in their last 2 meetings and has a head to head deficit of 0-4. Peng doesn’t have a great record in recent seasons on hard courts outside Asia and didn’t look comfortable in her opening game almost throwing away the game after bageling Dulgerhu in the opening set. If her first match is anything to go by Stosur will also get great support out in Indian Wells as following the match with Keys, the American’s agent has complained that the crowd were too supportive of the Aussie rather than his client. :hope

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Re: March 4 - March 17 Back Benoit Paire to beat Gilles Simon for a 2/10 stake at 2.20 with Pinnacle Benoit Paire leads the H2H record 2-0 (with the most recent victory coming just a few weeks ago) and has been playing the better tennis of the two so far in this tournament, so I would probably have the odds the other way around here. Gilles Simon was pretty lucky in the match against Lorenzi, so he will need to raise his game by a lot in order to defeat Paire - and that goal might easily be out of his reach right now. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/paire-vs-simon-betting-benoit-paire-to-get-his-third-win-over-gilles-simon-today Back Yanina Wickmayer (+1.5 sets) to beat Angelique Kerber for a 2/10 stake at 1.98 with Pinnacle I can see Wickmayer taking a set off the German today, that is for sure. There is not that much between the two in terms of overall quality, so we should be in for a good contest and, with the H2H standing at 1-1 (with both matches going to three sets), I am more than happy to back the talented Belgian at the prices that are on offer right now. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/wickmayer-vs-kerber-betting-the-talented-belgian-has-what-it-takes-to-trouble-angelique-kerber

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Re: March 4 - March 17 [h=1]Janowicz to beat Gasquet 3.25 at Bet365 2/10[/h] Duel between two talented players but mentally week, which is absolutely in favor of Janowicz. He likes to press opponents near the baseline, and when you use this kind of game against Gasquet, hes kicks are poor and he start to lose nerves, he react bad on aggressive players which is Janowicz. If he continues with this tennis, Pole will become synonym for aggressive game, madness serve and forehand and dropshot which ideally breaks the rhythm in which the opponents gets used. In this match he need only psychologically survive and victory is there

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Re: March 4 - March 17

This is a really intriguing one. While I think Haas should have enough to win this, Andujar seems a ridiculous price. You can get above 3.00 for him to win a set, which also appears generous. His form recently has been ropey, but the slower hard-court conditions in Indian Wells suit him no end, plus he's got a lot of ranking points to defend. Interesting one to watch. Hopefully you've spotted a gem.
Andujar should've won that second set really. Better player and was in most of Haas's service games until the tie-break when he just capitulated. Haas is just so annoyingly consistent, you would think at his age he would throw these guys a bone once in a while!

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Re: March 4 - March 17 Challenger Sarajevo - Pierre-Hughes Herbert to beat Cedric-Marcel Stebe @ 2/1 BET 365 Strength (6/10) In the battle of the triple-barrelled I think Herbert has a real chance to emerge victorious. Stebe is the better player without doubt but he's been out for around six weeks with an injury despite initially saying he would be out for only a couple of weeks - so it must have been pretty serious. He's coming back to a pretty to tough task ; facing a huge serving Frenchman in the fastest indoor court out there. Sarajevo is like an ice rink and really suits the big servers and Herbert has a big one. The rest of his game leaves a bit to be desired and he's been a bit dodgy recently but he plays better in Europe (won a futures event in France in January) and if he serves like he can he'll be very hard to break, especially with Stebe being rusty and possibly not fully fit. The Frenchman is definately value. :hope

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Re: March 4 - March 17 Dallas Challenger - Andre Begemann to beat Matteo Viola @ 4/1 BET 365 Strength (4/10) Definitely feel Viola is due a tank. He's had a pretty strenuous schedule in recent months, trying and in part succeeding in making an impression on the main tour. He was unlucky against Odesnik in Indian Wells qualies and he's also pencilled in to play Miami qualies next week. You have to wonder whether he might look to conserve energy here. He doesn't have any points to defend and he's not a stranger to not putting up much a fight in first round matches if he's not motivated(check out some of his results last year) and Begemann, although a mediocre journeyman, can be a pretty decent player and should enjoy the conditions here in Dallas. :hope

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