February 25 - March 3

[CzechPunter]

Re: February 25 - March 3 Back Fabio Fognini to beat Santiago Giraldo for a 2/10 stake at 1.83 with William Hill For me, Fabio Fognini is simply the better player of the two and should come through this challenge more often than not. The tight win against Bedene might look worrying, but I would never want to read into that too much when it comes to Fognini. On the other hand, Giraldo's awkward form in 2013 doesn't fill me with any confidence at all, so I am going to go with the Italian at the prices that are on offer. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/fognini-vs-giraldo-betting-fabio-fognini-should-be-too-strong-for-santiago-giraldo-in-acapulco Back Magdalena Rybarikova (+1.5 sets) to beat Venus Williams for a 2/10 stake at 2.17 with Pinnacle Well, Venus Williams isn't playing as well as you would expect her to, is she? Magdalena Rybarikova tends to struggle in matches that she should be winning easily, but she also tends to be on the top of her game when it comes to the big matches, so I wouldn't be surprised by seeing her taking a set - and perhaps even two - off the American today. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/rybarikova-vs-williams-betting-magdalena-rybarikova-to-trouble-venus-williams-in-brazil

[Regnavetto]

Re: February 25 - March 3 Karlovic vs Roger-Vasselin. Over 22.5 games 1.62 @ Pinnacle Must take if you ask me. Didn't expect the odds to be this high on such a low line. Of course everyone knows the big serve of Karlovic. But Roger-Vasselin has a decent enough serve and rally skills to hold his games with enough cheap points, certainly against a poor returner like Karlovic. Both players not really in form at the moment, but for this one it's all about the serve.

[Regnavetto]

Re: February 25 - March 3 Haas to beat Istomin. 1.78 @ Pinnacle (6/10 stake) I was waiting for the odds to hit at least 1.80, but 1.78 is close enough. I think people are underrating Haas at the moment due to his retiring last week. He had a virus that affected his respiratory capabilities. He has had enough time to recover from that and although he didn't look too good yesterday, he's had some rhythm and the rain in Delray meant Haas had some extra time on court today to prepare for this match. The odds shifting upwards for Haas whilst the situation is actually favoring the German. Ofcourse I'm going to pounce on that. Istomin is a great match up for Haas. Istomin will be looking to push Haas around the court, but the German is solid enough to counter punch that and take over the initiative in the rally forcing Istomin in faults. Can't ignore the German in this one. GL

[Dylan]

Re: February 25 - March 3

Juan Martin Del Potro vs Daniel Brands Del Potro doesn’t quite seem to be firing on all cylinders at the moment and whilst he was able to retain his crown in Rotterdam, elsewhere there has been nothing much to shout about in these early weeks of the season. That’s continued to be the case this week, with Baghdatis pushing him to a third set tie breaker, and earlier today he was hardly convincing or clinical against a weaker opponent in Devarman, squandering a number of break points in an unspectacular victory. Brands is a tough guy to play, with a game based around his big serve which is working well for him so far this tournament. Just in the last game against Youznhy he was winning almost 80% of his service points and offered the Russian nothing in the way of break points and I expect that for much of this match the German will be able to keep up with serve. Certainly that was the case when these two met last year on hard courts in Vienna, with Del Potro needing 3 sets (and 3 tie breaks) to take the win. If Brands can get Del Potro into such tight situations again then he stands half a chance of knicking something. Brands to win a set 3.0 at skybet (2.5 units) Brands to win 6.0 at bet365 (1.5 units)

This one was never really close to coming in. -4 units, taking me to +25.05 for the week.

[Regnavetto]

Re: February 25 - March 3

This one was never really close to coming in. -4 units' date=' taking me to +25.05 for the week.[/quote'] Brands played like a total douchebag. Unlucky.

[Regnavetto]

Re: February 25 - March 3 Querrey is the biggest choker around right now. Really lucky for us Gulbis backers to get it in!

[crazyswede]

Re: February 25 - March 3 Yeah this must be the biggest choke ever. When Gulbis was 0-4 down in the third set I had really counted this out.. I don't know if Gulbis was playing much better at that point, or if just Querrey choked bigtime! But a win is a win, good call Regnavetto :) This was my first post actually :P Hi all!

[Dylan]

Re: February 25 - March 3 Yeah excellent calls on Gulbis in here, didn't see any of the match but impressed that Gulbis was able to fight back from 4-0 down in the third. He does seem to way more motivated in recent weeks than we've seen for a while. I've got a couple of picks so far for tomorrow Ayumi Morita vs Luksika Khumkum Following the close call with Maia earlier in the week I’m going to try backing another emergent youngster in Khumkum to cause a few problems in this quarter final in Kuala Lumpur. The young Thai was always a strong performer at ITF level and has slowing been moving up onto the WTA circuit since the second half of last year. Whilst results haven’t always gone her way performances have generally been good and there’s been further improvement since the turn of the year, notably a last 64 slot at the Aussie Open followed by consistent upsetting of the odds against higher ranks opponents such as Kirilenko, Dellacqua and Daniilidou. The victory over the latter in round two here was pretty impressive & despite qualifying here she looks fresh (helped no doubt by the rain delays) as well as being extremely confident. Morita is of course a step up again but she’s not a player that’s going to strike fear into too many opponents and whilst she’s technically sound she does quite often flatter to deceive. Khumkum +4.5 games 1.90 at bwin (5 units) Khumkum to win 3.30 at betvictor (2.5 units) Tomas Berdych vs Roger Federer Smaller stakes on this one, as Federer looks to be playing well and has the added motivation having won here last year. However I think it is fair to say that Roger has faded a little in the last couple of years and is a bit more prone to the odd slip up. He’s already fallen to Benneteau earlier this month in Rotterdam (another event where he was defending his crown), and has struggled against Berdych on outdoor hard courts in the last 18 months, losing twice most recently at last years US Open. Indeed over his career on this surface the h2h reads 4-4 so Federer has no obvious advantage in that regards, and in general on all surfaces Berdych has been able to push Federer harder recently, taking atleast one set in 7 of the last 8 matches played. I do actually think that the Swiss may get through to another final here but I don’t think the odds truly reflect how tough Berdych can make it, so this is more a value pick than anything else. Berdych to win a set 2.0 at William Hill (3 units) Berdych to win 3.60 at Ladbrokes (2 units) :hope

[CzechPunter]

Re: February 25 - March 3 Back Tomas Berdych (+1.5 sets) to beat Roger Federer for a 2/10 stake at 1.86 with Pinnacle Agree with Dylan here. Berdych has the right weapons for troubling Federer and his performance against Tursunov was a good comeback after that slugging showing against Kamke, so he has every chance of getting something from this match. Federer has not been that impressive recently and it is hard to read into the victory against Davydenko too much, as the Russian has always been a good match-up for the Swiss number one. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/berdych-vs-federer-betting-tomas-berdych-can-take-a-set-off-the-swiss-number-one-in-dubai Back Tommy Haas (-3) to beat Ivan Dodig for a 2/10 stake at 1.85 with Pinnacle I was genuinely impressed by Haas yesterday, as he missed just a few chances early on before establishing a firm grip on the match against Istomin. Dodig will be a trickier match-up in a few respects, but not one that Haas shouldn't be able to figure out and I fancy him to go through to the next round with a fairly straightforward victory against the Croat. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/haas-vs-dodig-betting-tommy-haas-can-get-closer-to-the-delray-beach-title-by-beating-ivan-dodig

[Regnavetto]

Re: February 25 - March 3 ​Del Potro (+4.5 games) to beat Djokovic. Odds 2.01 @ Pinnacle (6/10 stake) Have to oppose Nole again on this one. Although he played really well against both Bautista and Seppi, this is another step up. Del Potro is growing into the tournament and after having two relatively difficult matches, he had a decent showing yesterday against Brands. Although Nole has looked quite impeccable, he has had moments of focus loss in all three games he has played this week. That doesn't make me hesitate about the Djokovic win though but I do think that Del Potro can hold his serve at least 8 times if he serves well and doesn't make too much errors with his backhand.

[CzechPunter]

Re: February 25 - March 3 Back Nicolas Almagro (+1.5 sets) to beat Rafael Nadal for a 2/10 stake at 2.68 with Pinnacle Nicolas Almagro has been playing really well since the beginning of the season and this is the best chance he's ever had to beat Nadal, who has a 8-0 H2H record against him. A win might still be a bridge too far for Almagro, but I can't ignore the price that is being offered on him taking a set off Nadal, who is still quite far from his very best, here. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/almagro-vs-nadal-betting-nicolas-almagro-can-take-advantage-of-nadal-s-recent-struggles-in-acapulco Back Carla Suarez-Navarro (-4) to beat Silvia Soler-Espinosa for a 2/10 stake at 1.97 with Pinnacle There is a solid gap between the two in terms of overall quality and I would be very surprised by any other result than a win for the higher ranked player here. The H2H shows that this is a match-up Suarez-Navarro enjoys and I fancy her to build on her good performance against Schiavone by beating Soler-Espinosa without any difficulties today. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/suarez-navarro-vs-soler-espinosa-betting-carla-suarez-navarro-to-get-through-to-the-finals-in-mexico

[Regnavetto]

Re: February 25 - March 3 Haas (-3.5 games) to beat Dodig. 1.88 @ Pinnacle (8/10 stake) Pretty much a no brainer for me. Like I expected yesterday, Haas started to play a lot better than in the Sijsling match. He's starting to catch form and I think the winner of the SF (pbb. Haas vs Gulbis) will take the crown at Delray Beach. Dodig is having a decent tournament winning against super erratic Dolgopolov and average Donskoy. Dodig doesn't have the solidness to stay in the rally well enough and take initiative and hit a winner to win a lot of points. What we'll see is Haas pushing Dodig around the court and that is exactly where Dodig doesn't want to be. If the Croatian is constantly pushed with his back against the wall, it could be a short and sweet affair.

[Dylan]

Re: February 25 - March 3 Again as with Querry last night, I actually quite fancied Dodig here as the value bet but with Regnavetto and Czech going big on Haas I’d probably missed something so swerved that one. Still I like the look of another match tonight in Delray Beach. Richard Berankis vs Edouard Vasselin Berankis can be a tricky man to stop when he gets on a run of wins particularly at American based hard court events , something which we’ve seen a few times in the 12 months or so. He reached the last 32 at the Aussie Open after coming through qualifying, and did a similar thing in both Atalanta and LA last year, reaching the final at the latter. For me this current run is baring all the hallmarks of those two tournaments last July, and with the Lithuanian being the much more confident player on hard courts than his French opponent I can see this run continuing for a little while longer. I’m disappointed that I missed him at 15.0 to win the tournament earlier in the day as Ladbrokes have just taken down that market, but I’m going to keep an eye on the price when it goes back up. Richard Berankis to win 1.67 at William Hill (4 units) :hope

[Dylan]

Re: February 25 - March 3

Ayumi Morita vs Luksika Khumkum Khumkum +4.5 games 1.90 at bwin (5 units) :\ Khumkum to win 3.30 at betvictor (2.5 units):\ Tomas Berdych vs Roger Federer Berdych to win a set 2.0 at William Hill (3 units) :ok Berdych to win 3.60 at Ladbrokes (2 units) :ok Richard Berankis vs Edouard Vasselin Richard Berankis to win 1.67 at >William Hill (4 units):\

Gutted I took the games handicap on Khumkum rather than the set handicap that I was also weighing up. -3.3 for the day, takes me down to +21.75 for the week.

[Dylan]

Re: February 25 - March 3 Ok, one more for the weekend to bide me over until Indian Wells starts next week. Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova vs Bethanie Mattek Sands Just a quick write up given that this one starts shortly. Mattek-Sands is doing well this tournament and whilst she can be pretty infuriating at times when she’s on it she is a tough player to come up against. She’s has an in your face style of play and can ruffle a few feathers when she wants and her Russian opponent here is someone who may struggle with the American’s aggressive style. In the last two meetings Mattek – Sands has been able to take a set off Pavlyuchenkova and if she carries on her momentum from the victory over number one seed Hseih then she may even be able to upset the odds further. Mattek Sands +1.5 sets 1.93 at sportingbet (4 units) Mattek Sands to win 3.4 at sportingbet (2 units) :hope

[Dylan]

Re: February 25 - March 3

Ok, one more for the weekend to bide me over until Indian Wells starts next week. Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova vs Bethanie Mattek Sands Just a quick write up given that this one starts shortly. Mattek-Sands is doing well this tournament and whilst she can be pretty infuriating at times when she’s on it she is a tough player to come up against. She’s has an in your face style of play and can ruffle a few feathers when she wants and her Russian opponent here is someone who may struggle with the American’s aggressive style. In the last two meetings Mattek – Sands has been able to take a set off Pavlyuchenkova and if she carries on her momentum from the victory over number one seed Hseih then she may even be able to upset the odds further. Mattek Sands +1.5 sets 1.93 at sportingbet (4 units) Mattek Sands to win 3.4 at sportingbet (2 units)

Both of these were winners, with Mattek Sands settting up a rather unexpected final with Pliskova. It'll be interesting to see how that one gets priced up. Anyway +8.52 for the match, so +30.27 for the week.

[Regnavetto]

Re: February 25 - March 3 Tommy Haas vs Ernests Gulbis. Over 22.5 1.74 @ Pinnacle (8/10 stake) This is going to be a real cracker. I wanted to take the over 23.5 but for me the odds weren't high enough. The odds on the 22.5 however are gold. If you had to ask me who would win the match, I think it should be Gulbis, but odds reflects well that it's practically a coinflip. Both players have been erratic this tournament. Gulbis had some sloppy games in the Blake match and was on the brink of elimination being a double break down in the decider against Querrey. However, it does show in what kind of state of mind this guy is playing 2013. On the other hand Haas was quite lucky to come through against Sijsling. The Dutchmen looked like he could win the match being a set up, but had to retire after spraining his ankle at 4-4 in the 2nd. He continued to play really solid against Istomin but his erratic play returned in the Dodig match. Dodig overcame a double break deficit but Haas prevailed in the breaker. After a disastrous second set, solid Haas came back in the third to win it 61. The match-up promises a long match and I won't be surprised if it became something like 64 36 64 with multiple breaks by both players. The player with the least unforced errors will surely come through, but the over is a banker for me. The match-up promises a long match and I won't be surprised if it became something like 64 36 64 with multiple breaks by both players. The player with the least unforced errors will surely come through, but the over is a banker for me.