Racing Post chase - Saturday

[bowles10]

I really hope this snow thaws in time for Kempton tomorrow. Could nt believe it this morning when i woke up as it's always on a good racing day! I have been doing a bit of work on the race & i can advise the following so far: 8 out of last 10 races have been won by a horse with an official rating of 145 or higher. The 2 exceptions being Gunther Mcbride 120 & Mudahim 132. That means only Farmer Jack 152 qualifies. 8yo have won 4 out of last 10, with other ages being 6, 7, 10 (2), 11 & 12. There's a fair spread there. No 9yo though so maybe rule out Farmer Jack?, Iznogoud, Inca trail, Zaffamore & Run for paddy. Due to the spread of ages, i would be inclined to ignore this. 19 horses with a rating above 150 have taken part over last 10 years & 4 have won from 19 runners. Framer Jack is the only qualifier here. the following have won over 3 miles, AstonVille, Colonel Frank, Farmer Jack, Gunther McBride, Horus, Inca Trail, Mondial Jack, Run for Paddy, tribal venture, Zaffamore & Banker Count. I would discount all the others who have only won up to 2 & 1/2 miles. the following (out of the above) have winning form on G/S or softer, Astonville, Colonel Frank, Farmer Jack, Gunther Mcbride, Horus, Inca Trail, Mondial jack, Run for paddy, Zaffamore. If you look further, those with wins over soft & worse are: Astonville, C Frank, F Jack, Horus, Inca Trail, Mondial Jack, Gunther Mcbride, Banker count. Farmer Jack, Mondial Jack, Gunther Mcbride have course wins to their name notably Gunther Mcbride who has 4 course wins including winning this race & 2nd twice in this race. 9 out of last 10 have been 9-1 or shorter ! That may be down to the quality in the race & the amount of runners? sorry just realised that Banker Count had not been added to the above lists. Sorry again:eyes

[bowles10]

Re: Racing Post chase - Saturday still hoping the race will be on. The snow has melted & rain is forecast for later. Think the 3m will be testing tomorrow although Kempton is a flat course. think the winner will come from: Astonville 100-1 Colonel Frank 5-1 Farmer Jack 5-1 Horus 25-1 Inca Trail 20-1 Mondial Jack 50-1 Gunther Mcbride 9-1 some juicy prices there to consider. I think i will be backing 3 on the day if the fiedl stays the same size with places down to 4th currently.