BBOTD - 14th February 2013. Valentines Day

[Primevil]

3.55 MEYDAN..UAE 2000 GUINEAS. Soft Falling Rain. 11/10 Paddy Power. One of the best potential horses to grace the UAE steps up tomorrow. Hitting the track standard last time, in a very easy manor. He does stand out as a 5 star bet for me. We are getting evens or a little bigger due to the inconclusive issue about the extra furlong. I guess PH has never say on a better one in his carear. On his dams side there are plenty of mile and mile plus wininng form, and even on the sires side we tend to think sprinter, but again, there is plenty of mile winning form. He will go from the front or near to it again, but he will produce a mid race time between 4 out and 1 out that the others just wont be able to live with. I know the 2nd fav has decent form from the states, but he still has not done it at this level, he has only placed or just out the places. A good thing as i have seen for a long time, at a superb price.

[Smarty72]

Re: BBOTD - 14th February 2013. Valentines Day 15.30 Leicester - Grandioso - Win @ 4\6 PP BOG 3 chases to date all on soft ground. Won on debut chase at Wincanton over 2m 5f before coming 2nd (only 2 finishers) at the same course over the same distance. Last time was at Ludlow over 2m 4f when a very easy winner and did not have a hard race. Has jumped well all 3 times and been staying on at the end of the races so the extra distance should be no issue. Carry's top weight but 3lb well in as due to go up to 142 OR, runs off 138 in this. Paul Nicholls would not be running if he felt this horse could not won and this looks a good opportunity for another win.

[Tedthewolf]

Re: BBOTD - 14th February 2013. Valentines Day 4.30 LEICESTER KILVERGAN BOY 13/2 BET365 1PT WIN. Really fancy this very strongly and have backed it e/w but for purpose of the thread its a win bet. NTD takes 2 runners to here tomorrow but this is his main one he has got this horse well handicapped again it won this last year and has 4lb less to carry this year & imo this years renewal is no harder than last year son sam gets the leg up again yard are in fair form and i cant see being out of the places.

[DC]

Re: BBOTD - 14th February 2013. Valentines Day 7:30 Kempton THECORNISHCOCKNEY 6-1 Betfred (bog) Won a class 5 event off 81 at Wolves over 2m1f and lost narrowly in a class 4 race on this surface off a mark of 86. Last two runs have been over shorter trips and at class 2 and 3 so a return to this trip of 2m, back at Kempton and back in this class is encouraging off a mark of 87. Murcar is the favourite who also goes up in the weights after a narrow loss, however he is 8 years old and carries a claimer whereas my selection is only 4, entitled to improve and has Kirby steering again. The fly in the ointment could be Rysbrack who won a bumper at Wolverhampton. The more than capable Graham Lee rides, however the horse has no form on this surface so I will happily put up Thecornishcockney who has more boxes ticked and at 6-1 seems a decent value bet.

[robertob]

Re: BBOTD - 14th February 2013. Valentines Day 15.55 Meydan: Soft Falling Rain @ 11/10 Paddy Power He's a superstar in the making and while there are slight doubts about his ability to stay as he looks rather like a sprinter in his action it's a fair chance that a mile is within his range. When he appeared here at Meydan recently in a Guineas trial after a long lay-off he was absolutely outstanding, even though he had probably the run of the race. Yet it was a fantastic performance and he can only improve from that. He's a Group 1 winner in South Africa, winning the G1 SA Nursery over 1.600m at Turffontein easily in April last year. You don't win such a race in such a manner (more than 4 lengths the winning margin that day, easily kicking away in the final 300m), unless it's a very, very good horse. There looks to be some competition for the lead in this race here tomorrow. Shouldn't bother Soft Falling Rain too much, he don't need to lead. I think he's simply too good for the rest of this field.

[smith17]

Re: BBOTD - 14th February 2013. Valentines Day 16.30 Meydan: Daddy Long Legs, 7/1 >Paddy Power, win Daddy Long Legs is having his first start for the in-form Mike De Kock. He has been out of sorts in his last few runs, although they were all in group 1's and he drops to group 3 today, and I'm hoping the change of stable will shake him up and get him back in form. His only run at this track was on World Cup night when he won the group 2 UAE Derby after an absence similar to what he has to overcome today. He has only run twice over today's distance, including a group 2 win and a 2L defeat by Power in a group 1. The top class Christophe Soumillon is in the saddle.

[cooleddy]

Re: BBOTD - 14th February 2013. Valentines Day 5.00 kempton kerfuffle 4/1 bet365 win kerfuffle lightly raced slow away lto at kempton ,the run before that at lingfield was slow out of the stalls but looked unlucky going for a run up the inside and getting hampered first time blinkers on today should make all the differance .

[Boulder5111]

Re: BBOTD - 14th February 2013. Valentines Day K2.10 You Know Yourself 1pt win 10/1 Stan James This one went down by just a head over c&d on its penultimate start and the first and 4th from that race have won since. I think course form it good to have here and that looks like a really decent run. It's got a really good strike rate over fences at this level and hopefully this softer ground will suit. As usual, there's not much to go on regarding jockeys ability in this amateur races but the jockey on board the selection won a staying chase just yesterday so hopefully he can go in again today.

[cpo]

Re: BBOTD - 14th February 2013. Valentines Day 5.05 Meydan Whaileyy 1pt EW @ 20/1 Ladbrokes This could turn out to be pretty simple. If Krypton Factor is anywhere near fully fit then he probably wins this race. The interesting one is the group 1 winner form Australia Mental who is having his first start for Godolphin. Plenty of their horses have needed the run so far at the carnival so I would swerve him tomorrow. Hitchens is a horse I like as he did me a favour at the carnival last year and he is trained by David Barron. Tamaathul is in the form of his life and was very impressive last time out on his first career start over 6f. He handles the artificial surface just as well as the turf so he must have every chance, with this race looking like it will be run to suit him. Balmont Mast is a horse I thought could be one to follow on the tapeta surface this year. He finished well last time out to grab 2nd but that was a weaker contest than this one and he find one of two too good again. The horse I have sided with is the Marco Botti trained Whaileyy who unseated at the start on his first run at Meydan. Previous to that run he had looked the type to continue improving on an artificial surface. He won well at Kempton over 6f back in November off a mark of 97 before looking unlucky not to get up at Lingfield off a mark of 102. I don't think a mark of 105 is beyond him and there looks as though there could be more to come from him. This is by far his toughest task to date but he goes well on an artificial surface and he is only a 5 year old so there should be more to come from him. He has a decent enough draw in 8 as the jockey should be able to get a good sit in behind the pace. He is pretty versatile as to how he is ridden but with a likely strong pace here, I would expect him to be held up and come with a late run like he did at Lingfield. James Doyle gets his first ride on the horse, but he does well at the track so having him on board is a positive.

[BARNSLEYCHOP]

Re: BBOTD - 14th February 2013. Valentines Day 6.30 KEMPTON HIP HIP HOORAY @ 9/2 BetVictor ew .5 Not my most daring selection but this looks to have a solid chance off todays mark of 60, last 2 wins over CD came off marks of 67 & 63 and last time would have gone really close off this mark over CD but for being hampered late on. Drawn well in 3, should be able to hold a position and pounce late.

[corky]

Re: BBOTD - 14th February 2013. Valentines Day 1540 kelso 1pt win funky munky 6/1 betvic i have to be against the fave in this one,although on a hatrick i think the whillans horse should win this,only 2 wins out of 19 races,but a winner last time out on heavy ground,1 furlong less today,and up 5 lbs,conditions will suit,i am surprised the trainer hasnt had a winner at this course in the last year,and he usually supports his local course, over 200 runners and has had 18 winners and 30 odd placed since he started training

[BillyHills]

Re: BBOTD - 14th February 2013. Valentines Day 310 Kelso: Totalize (5/2 Stan James) The juveniles get a 10lb allowance in this race and that might be the difference to enable Totalize to get the better of the Pipe/McCoy fav here. He made a fair debut at Catterick when second to Ruacana who has gone on since and then got up close home on his next outing at Musselburgh. The Ellison team are in good nick and with average improvement should go close here. Calculated Risk won at Donny but the form hasnt worked out and jumped poorly last time at Huntingdon and not sure the heavy ground will suit him. The fav Unique De Cotte has been backed but represents poor value to me and probably down to the connections, his debut run in this country was ok at Ffos Las but nothing special and has to give a lot of weight away due to his penalty for his win in France.

[wizzkid walter]

Re: BBOTD - 14th February 2013. Valentines Day 3:55 Meydan - Soft Falling Rain - Back Looks a really classy type from South Africa and has swept all before him this far. Won his trial for this race in really good fashion and so ling as he gets this whole trip, should prove very tough to beat 1pt win @ 10/11 VC BOG

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: BBOTD - 14th February 2013. Valentines Day Fav looks very beatable lumping another 6lb for a recent win and the 4/1 aint for me, but saying that i would not put anyone off backing it, i'll side with Mr Shrewdy himself AKA Mr Dandy Nicholls in Race 2' at Kempton. Mr Nicholls only sends out this one runner and its a horse he also owns a share in, the 8yr old gelding by cape cross runs off a feather weight and with jockey Franny Norton getting the leg up for the very first time, both horse and jockey look worth a bet. Once with C.Cox but Dandy took over around April / May last year 2012 - NOT won a race since the 26th May 2011 and nothing to write home about in his last ''11'' efforts, but under tonight's weight he has a fair chance of of going home with something. 17:30 Kempton Pk - Dunn'o. 0.5 E/w Bet @ 12/1 Most firms, Paddy P, Lads, Hills. ''BOG''

[south_eastern_ram]

Re: BBOTD - 14th February 2013. Valentines Day 5.30 Kempton - Golden Desert - 5/1 Bet365 Tough race where a case could be made for many. Think Golden Desert is still potentially quite a few pounds better than his current mark though and he seems in top form at the moment. Won pretty cosily lto off a strong gallop and if they go anywhere near that pace tonight i think he goes close at the very least. Only 2lbs higher for that win and the long straight at Kempton is perfect for him. Yard hit some form of late and Graham Lee a positive booking. Expect to see a few of these finishing quickly if they go hard enough up front.

[nickf88]

7:00 Kempton - Midnight Bahia - 0.5 pts EW 18/1 BetVictor Looks way overpriced for me tonight in what is a very competitive race, but seeing as this was a last time out winner, albeit a dead heat, looks great value considering it pulled 2 lengths or so clear of Leitrim King who's priced around the 9-10/1 mark. Franny Norton takes the ride again and hopefully can give this another good ride.

[santos_]

Re: BBOTD - 14th February 2013. Valentines Day Kelso 2.10 - Rolecarr 1pts win (11/4 Betfred) Picked up his fourth career win here at Kelso back in December with a 12 length romp to Or De Grugy who he does battle again with today in second. As a result has a career high mark to overcome but this is a track he shows his best at and another big effort could easily see him notch up back to back wins.

[bazzafazza]

Re: BBOTD - 14th February 2013. Valentines Day 1.40 Kelso - Conquisto 6/5 @ PP don't normally go this short but a tony mccoy ridden, gollins owned horse at 6/5 isn't to be sniffed at. good form, likes the turf and up against sub par opposition imo.

[NeilM]

Re: BBOTD - 14th February 2013. Valentines Day 15:55 Meydan (Dubai 2,000 Guineas): Glass Office, 6/1 Bet365 BOG, 0.5 EW Reasoning in a minute as I'm still typing.

[bartrum]

Re: BBOTD - 14th February 2013. Valentines Day 8.0 kemp harvest mist -sp Like the way this one won last time, in a very good time. Gone up 4lb for that which is fair and I think in a very poor race he has a great chance of following up. Kirby on board for the 1st time which is a plus for me.

[NeilM]

Re: BBOTD - 14th February 2013. Valentines Day

15:55 Meydan (Dubai 2,000 Guineas): Glass Office, 6/1 Bet365 BOG, 0.5 EW Reasoning in a minute as I'm still typing.

Won the Sirenia Stakes at this level last year and seems a far better performer when away from turf. Had no sort of ride in the trial for this against Soft Falling Rain and the erratic Snowboarder. Mother was dual 1m winner and I think the step up in trip should suit given his running style. Only going EW because of the price- I actually expect it to lengthen when punters at home get on Fortify and Soft Falling Rain. Soft Falling Rain is trained by Mike de Kock.

[briilaa]

Re: BBOTD - 14th February 2013. Valentines Day Kempton 17:30 BUSSA 7/2 PP Won his last well at Wolves only a week ago, that was his 5th start this year and has won 2 of those starts, finishing second in the other 3. Also finished 2012 with 2 wins, one of which was his last time out at Kempton on December 13th. Going by form Bussa will be hard to stop. Kempton 17:30 BUSSA 7/2 PP

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: BBOTD - 14th February 2013. Valentines Day 5.40 Meydan - 1pt win Silvaner @ 20/1 (Sportingbet) Will enjoy the drop in class to handicap company here and isn't off a bad mark on his best form. He's appeared outspeeded by some classy types such as Danedream and Meandre is steadily-run races and I think a strongly run 1m4f is what this one wants. Not guaranteed here but a few pace horses and a bigger field should help. Drawn well for isn't a bad price for a regular group performer off this mark.

[Primevil]

Re: BBOTD - 14th February 2013. Valentines Day

3.55 MEYDAN..UAE 2000 GUINEAS. Soft Falling Rain. 11/10 Paddy Power. One of the best potential horses to grace the UAE steps up tomorrow. Hitting the track standard last time, in a very easy manor. He does stand out as a 5 star bet for me. We are getting evens or a little bigger due to the inconclusive issue about the extra furlong. I guess PH has never say on a better one in his carear. On his dams side there are plenty of mile and mile plus wininng form, and even on the sires side we tend to think sprinter, but again, there is plenty of mile winning form. He will go from the front or near to it again, but he will produce a mid race time between 4 out and 1 out that the others just wont be able to live with. I know the 2nd fav has decent form from the states, but he still has not done it at this level, he has only placed or just out the places. A good thing as i have seen for a long time, at a superb price.

We never had a moments worry here, easing down to a 2 1/4 l win,clipping a 1.36 and change, just slightly over standard. Matching (give or take ) the group 3 after this race, for more experienced horses. He has a group 1 in him, not sure its going to be the UAE DERBY...mmm will he stay the extra 2? They may dodge this, but for sure there are exciting races ahead in the summer in europe for him, must be rated low 120;s now and improving all the time....The mile division without a frankel on the scene could be all before him. He has big boots to fill, but he is a class horse, that we aint heard the last of. "the best i have ridden" PH.

[Lodge]

Re: BBOTD - 14th February 2013. Valentines Day 6.30 - Kempton - Fairy Wing @ 16/1 Bet365 Nothing that really takes my fancy this evening but i shall have a shot on Fairy Wing running better now back at a more suitable trip. Has some reasonable form from over in Ireland that would suggest he is a better horse than this mark. Infact he was running off marks as high as 83 only last September. Had a few runs over in England now and has tumbled down the handicap to a mark of 58, only had 2 runs for this yard and both have been over 6f which to my mind is too sharp for this horse considering he has never won over that trip. Back up to 8f today which should certainly help. Competitive race for a class 6 but decent draw reasonable jockey so hopefully will outrun his price.

[cpo]

Re: BBOTD - 14th February 2013. Valentines Day 6.30 Kempton Vitznau 1pt win @ 28/1 Bet365 This horse was claimed out of the John Butler yard by K F Clutterbuck after his last run. He used to be a very talented animal and did manage to win off a career high mark of 97. His best wins have come on the all weather but he is a horse that doesn't win very often. He won very cosily over 7f at this track 3 runs ago off 51 but seemed unsuited by the trip next time up when he came there travelling nicely but just didn't go through with his effort. Maybe the week wasn't long enough to get over his exertions. He comes into this race having his first start for his new trainer and he is well drawn in 2. He is a 9 year old now but I don't think a mark of 61 is beyond him. This isn't the strongest of races so if he is on a going day then he definitely has the talent to get involved. The jockey is a worry as I don't really rate Jamie Mackay but he is a big price and might just outrun his odds.

[BillyHills]

Re: BBOTD - 14th February 2013. Valentines Day Later races;

7:30 Kempton THECORNISHCOCKNEY 6-1 Betfred (bog) Won a class 5 event off 81 at Wolves over 2m1f and lost narrowly in a class 4 race on this surface off a mark of 86. Last two runs have been over shorter trips and at class 2 and 3 so a return to this trip of 2m, back at Kempton and back in this class is encouraging off a mark of 87. Murcar is the favourite who also goes up in the weights after a narrow loss, however he is 8 years old and carries a claimer whereas my selection is only 4, entitled to improve and has Kirby steering again. The fly in the ointment could be Rysbrack who won a bumper at Wolverhampton. The more than capable Graham Lee rides, however the horse has no form on this surface so I will happily put up Thecornishcockney who has more boxes ticked and at 6-1 seems a decent value bet.

7:00 Kempton - Midnight Bahia - 0.5 pts EW 18/1 BetVictor Looks way overpriced for me tonight in what is a very competitive race, but seeing as this was a last time out winner, albeit a dead heat, looks great value considering it pulled 2 lengths or so clear of Leitrim King who's priced around the 9-10/1 mark. Franny Norton takes the ride again and hopefully can give this another good ride.

8.0 kemp harvest mist -sp Like the way this one won last time, in a very good time. Gone up 4lb for that which is fair and I think in a very poor race he has a great chance of following up. Kirby on board for the 1st time which is a plus for me.

[Primevil]

Re: BBOTD - 14th February 2013. Valentines Day

6.30 Kempton Vitznau 1pt win @ 28/1 Bet365 This horse was claimed out of the John Butler yard by K F Clutterbuck after his last run. He used to be a very talented animal and did manage to win off a career high mark of 97. His best wins have come on the all weather but he is a horse that doesn't win very often. He won very cosily over 7f at this track 3 runs ago off 51 but seemed unsuited by the trip next time up when he came there travelling nicely but just didn't go through with his effort. Maybe the week wasn't long enough to get over his exertions. He comes into this race having his first start for his new trainer and he is well drawn in 2. He is a 9 year old now but I don't think a mark of 61 is beyond him. This isn't the strongest of races so if he is on a going day then he definitely has the talent to get involved. The jockey is a worry as I don't really rate Jamie Mackay but he is a big price and might just outrun his odds.

Just watched it m8...Clearly a dodge pot, did not fancy it, went about 50 yards n jacked it in. :eek Unlucky..Your reasoning was sound IMO, I would be wary of this one in future.

[Tedthewolf]

Re: BBOTD - 14th February 2013. Valentines Day 8.00 KEMPTON~0.5 E/W YOUM JAMIL 22/1 BET365

[Tedthewolf]

Re: BBOTD - 14th February 2013. Valentines Day

8.00 KEMPTON~0.5 E/W YOUM JAMIL 22/1 BET365

Overpriced from a yard in form decent 2nd lto and didnt get a clear run should go very well.