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Joburg Open (Euro Tour) Feb 7th-10th


BillyHills
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Re: Joburg Open (Euro Tour) Feb 7th-10th Top Scottish Player 2pts Marc Warren 9/4 Paddy Power http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/joburg-open/joburg-open/top-scotsman Have to say this is the worst looking event for me so far this season and probably best left to the home players. Even the outside markets are poor this week and will have just one bet on the Scottish Top Player, not very creative but i think Marc Warren will get back to something like his best this week now he has left the desert, he plays well in Sth Africa as a rule and was third in this last season and 20th in 2011. Last backend played well in two out of three tournaments over here with a couple of top 30 finishes. That looks good enough for a bet and a bit of interest. 12/5 at Boyles if you can get a bet on?

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Re: Joburg Open (Euro Tour) Feb 7th-10th As stated above by Billyhills slim pickings in this tournament where I think the home players will be too strong for the rest of the field. I think i have found once decent bet and it is the the Top Frenchman category - There are 8 runners in this which are as follows - [h=3] Top Frenchman - Top Nationality [/h] [TABLE="class: mkt three-col]

[TR] [TD] Gregory Bourdy [/TD] [TD] Gregory Havret [/TD] [TD] Alexandre Kaleka [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD] Alexander Levy [/TD] [TD] Gary Stal [/TD] [TD] Guillaume Cambis [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD] Anthony Snobeck [/TD] [TD] Christian Cevaer [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] I really think Bourdy and Havret are a cut above the rest Bourdy is best priced 6/4 with Ladbrokes and Havret is best priced 7/2 with Skybet - would be very suprised if either of these two players did not come out on top of these poor selection of French players as the remaining 6 players are rookies with no recent form or prize money to their name. I have split the stakes on both selections so I win the same amount if either Bourdy or Havret is the top Frenchman pays just under evens which I think is a more than fair price - I have a free £10 bet with Skybet so if I use that too so it pays just over evens for me - I can see most of the French lads if not all of them failing to make the cut with such a strong SA field but reckon one of my two boys will be way too strong even if it goes to all four rounds. Not everyones cup of tea backing an even shot but I am happy with it. Good luck all who has a bet. Joe
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Re: Joburg Open (Euro Tour) Feb 7th-10th I actually think both of the above bets are pretty solid ones and, whilst short priced shots aren't my chosen route in the golf tournaments, I do think both Warren & the French pair should land the spoils. As has already been said, this is a weak field and one which lacks any real strength of depth. However, because of the presence of Schwartzel, Grace & Coetzee, there are a few that can be backed with reasonable confidence at a price. At these dual track events, we need players that are playing reasonably well so I've stuck with the form guys. In addition, course form is often another tick in the box. So, what of the market leaders? Schwartzel is clearly the obvious starting point but 3/1 is a crazy price in a 200 runner field and let's not forget he did miss the cut last year. Admittedly he's won here twice before and comes here on the back of 2 wins but it is his first start of 2013 and I'd rather back someone like Marc Warren in the Scottish market at a similar price to what Charl is in the outright market. Next up is Branden Grace who, again at 7/1, is too short for my liking. Yes, he won here last year in a remarkable 2012 where he recorded 4 victories but I just think that brings with it added pressure. 3 top 10's in 2013 so far is excellent form but he hasn't really been in contention going into day 4 as he's usually finished with a flourish. Time will tell how he handles the added pressure of being one of the favourites when in the final group or 2 on Sunday. The 3rd of the extremely well fancied South Africans is George Coetzee. It's always difficult to write off one of the up & coming talents of the game but my worry is his failure to win on the European Tour to date. He probably should have won in Qatar 2 weeks back but didn't, and whilst he didn't choke, I'm not sure his chance is any better here and 8/1 is no price for a tour maiden. Before I get to my 3 selections, a final word about the 4th fav Richard Sterne. It's been well documented that he holds his form so a runner up spot last week will be enough to get a few to invest this week. For me though, I just think the way Gallacher won with some amazing golf and the fact Sterne was installed as favourite after a 62 on day 1 will have taken its toll. I can't see him reproducing a similar effort here so 16/1 is another where the price doesn't reflect his true chance. After these 4, the quality begins to tail off at an alarming rate making it a very weak field despite the 200 teeing it up. That is with the exception of my 3 selections for the week. S.Webster to win Joburg Open, 2.5pts EW @ 30/1 Stan James (1/4 odds 1-5) Webster comes here as the joint shortest priced overseas challenger. To me, this is unsurprising considering the form he arrives here in. 4 top 7's in his 5 starts on this year's tour cannot be bettered by anyone so 30/1 in a weak field is good for me. Before the turn of the year, he had a 2nd place at the Nelson Mandela followed by a 7th at the Alfred Dunhill. Both of those came in South Africa so a return to the country should hold happy memories indeed. He is yet to play at this event but I'm really not worried because when a player comes here striking the ball so well, he can adjust to any track. After a month off over the holiday period, he returned to finish 32nd at the Abu Dhabi and then improved on that with a 4th in Qatar and 7th last week. Statistically, the East Course (that hosts 3 of the 4 days) requirements you to hit greens and decent driving distance is also a plus. Well, you don't get better than Webster whose been top 5 for GIR in all 5 of the above mentioned events and in the top 20 for 4 of 5 in distance. Even his traditional weak point, his putting, looks to be coming good with marked improvement on each of his 3 starts this calendar year. No-one will come here with more confidence in his game and that's enough for me to take Webster as our first bet. D.Willett to win Joburg Open, 2.5pts EW @ 30/1 Stan James (1/4 odds 1-5) The other joint best priced overseas challenger is another Englishman, Danny Willett. He isn't in the same form as Webster but he does have some solid recent form in the book as well as excellent course form. Finished 5th 3 starts ago at the Volvo Golf Champions in a far superior contest to this before following up with a top 25 in Abu Dhabi. Did miss the cut last week but his game looks solid and he just needs a little bit of luck. In those 3 events / 10 rounds, the worst round he's hit is 71. In anyone's book, that's pretty good golf. Unsurprisingly, his best finish in those 3 was in South Africa. I say unsurprising as he has an excellent record here. In his last 7 visits to South Africa, he's recorded 4 top 10's, a further 2 top 20's and a top 35. Amongst them are 2 top 5's from 4 starts here. Again, he is one of the longest off the tee and his iron play has been very strong recently. Another whose putting isn't always the strongest but these greens aren't the toughest and his game ticks all the main boxes in terms of finding the short stuff. Weak field, good course form, solid recent form. All these are reasons to keep on the right side of the Englishman. G.Mulroy to win Joburg Open, 2.5pts EW @ 35/1 Bet365 (1/4 odds 1-5) Final bet and I'll stick with one of the home contingent. Garth is yet another with solid recent form and his turn is not far away. 3rd before Christmas at Leopold Creek where his distance off the tee and his putting helped his top 5 finish. The Desert Swing has seen steady improvement, 48-40-15. What he needs is to put 4 rounds together and in the first 2 of those, he played the first 36 well and then faded whilst last week was a complete reverse. Mulroy's strength, without doubt, is his putting and he ranked number 1 last week in Dubai. Especially on the West Course where it's the one day to pick up a really low score, his excellent form with the short stick is a real plus. His distance will pull him out of holes on the East Course and, if that fails, he can again revert to his trusty putter. I'd definitely put him in the 'streaky' bracket and that may be the ideal type where scoring is likely to be low. 2 missed cuts and 2 runner up finishes in his last 4 starts ago. I just hope his performance is one representative of a runner up (or, even better, a winner) and, assuming we can get the front 4 in the market beat, Mulroy holds the strongest claims of the remainder of the South African players.

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Re: Joburg Open (Euro Tour) Feb 7th-10th *Top European Player > Ricardo Santos @ 18/1 Ladbrokes* 18/1 is a very backable price here. In 4 events so far this season, he has finished 28th in the Volvo Golf Champions, 4th in Abu Dhabi, T22nd in the Qatar Masters and last weekend was T7th in the Omega Desert Classic in Dubai, shooting -15. He is a player in terrific current form, and the price is generous.

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Re: Joburg Open (Euro Tour) Feb 7th-10th 0.5 E/W GARTH MULROY 35/1 BET 365 1-5 ~ We could get a home victory in this but not in the shape of the fav (CS) i think Mulroy has a decent e/w shout having been 2nd twice in it, has been building up to this from the start of the year with a T48 T40 & T15 last week getting better each tournament and will be trying his damnedest to lift the trophy in his homeland after being heartbreakingly soo close twice.

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Re: Joburg Open (Euro Tour) Feb 7th-10th Peter Whiteford at 12s for a top ten finnish could be value odds.He tied for 6th place in this event in 2010 and has three top fifty finnishes this season and a low first round of 66 in the Qatar masters so hopefully he will take encouragment from fellow countryman Steve Gallaghers win last week and put himself in with a chance of a good payday come sunday.

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Re: Joburg Open (Euro Tour) Feb 7th-10th 1pt ew J.van Zyl to win Joburg Open 45/1 Bet365 It has to be said the depth in quality in this field isn’t great but one man who might give the favoured four South African’s a run for their money is another South African in the form of Jaco Van Zyl. Jaco has three top 12 finishes here in the last four years and generally goes well in South African events. He began this European Tour season with an eighth placed finish in the Nelson Mandela tournament and at a hefty looking 45/1 I think he’ll go well this week. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/joburg-open-betting-jaco-van-zyl-can-land-the-title-in-johannesburg-this-week

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Re: Joburg Open (Euro Tour) Feb 7th-10th

As stated above by Billyhills slim pickings in this tournament where I think the home players will be too strong for the rest of the field. I think i have found once decent bet and it is the the Top Frenchman category - There are 8 runners in this which are as follows - Top Frenchman - Top Nationality [TABLE=class: mkt three-col] [TR] [TD] Gregory Bourdy [/TD] [TD] Gregory Havret [/TD] [TD] Alexandre Kaleka [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD] Alexander Levy [/TD] [TD] Gary Stal [/TD] [TD] Guillaume Cambis [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD] Anthony Snobeck [/TD] [TD] Christian Cevaer [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] I really think Bourdy and Havret are a cut above the rest Bourdy is best priced 6/4 with Ladbrokes and Havret is best priced 7/2 with Skybet - would be very suprised if either of these two players did not come out on top of these poor selection of French players as the remaining 6 players are rookies with no recent form or prize money to their name. I have split the stakes on both selections so I win the same amount if either Bourdy or Havret is the top Frenchman pays just under evens which I think is a more than fair price - I have a free £10 bet with Skybet so if I use that too so it pays just over evens for me - I can see most of the French lads if not all of them failing to make the cut with such a strong SA field but reckon one of my two boys will be way too strong even if it goes to all four rounds. Not everyones cup of tea backing an even shot but I am happy with it. Good luck all who has a bet. Joe
As predicted all of the French boys struggled to make the cut - Only Kaleka with a score of -4 & my man Havret with a birdie on the last also scraping though with -4 making the cut. Feeling a lot more positive than after the first day and am happy to be sitting on a coupon of just over evens on this two horse race although def not a gimme am confident my man can land the spoils - bring on the weekend!!!
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Re: Joburg Open (Euro Tour) Feb 7th-10th

*Top European Player > Ricardo Santos @ 18/1 Ladbrokes* 18/1 is a very backable price here. In 4 events so far this season, he has finished 28th in the Volvo Golf Champions, 4th in Abu Dhabi, T22nd in the Qatar Masters and last weekend was T7th in the Omega Desert Classic in Dubai, shooting -15. He is a player in terrific current form, and the price is generous.
:clap Crackerjack
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Re: Joburg Open (Euro Tour) Feb 7th-10th Terrific shout Aidy. On a day where low scoring was the order of the day, no-one went lower than Santos to easily land the spoils for you. Very well done mate:nana On a personal note, the 2nd disappointing event in a row with Mulroy well poised after 9 today (-6) but then +1 for the homeward 9 to miss out on a place. Africa again next week in a very poor field indeed. In fact, Sterne will probably be short odds to follow up.

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Re: Joburg Open (Euro Tour) Feb 7th-10th Thanks folks, am starting to think the continental markets are a much better thing to look into for the future, it may stop long barren spells searching for the winner of a tourney. I just thought Santos was over-priced, only reason I backed him. Before I looked at the odds, I had a vision of 8/1 or 9/1 in my head, and saw 18's.

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