The Desperate Mug Glory Hunt

[Fedar]

Cheers, fellas! After checking and enjoying many different glory hunts on this sub-forum, I decided to run my own experiment here. I call it a mug glory hunt, because it shares all the characteristics of mug betting - low coefficients, stakes disproportionally high compared with the bank, delusional belief in the success of the hunt. :loon However, I intend to make this hunt a little different than the common ones and hope it will make it more entertaining (and hopefully last longer than a day or two). Because I have watched many well-going glory hunts which get ruined because of pushing too much with the bets, the aim of my experiment is to check whether a glory hunt can be successful, if the hunter has more patience and works slowly, in increments. So, these are the conditions of my glory hunt: 1. Starting bank: Probably it be smarter to run the experiment with symbolic money, as a desperate hunt should be destined to desperately fail. :lol However, I thought that if the starting money is too low, I would probably not be motivated to devote much effort to this hunt and it will affect the quality of my selections. So, I decided to take the 50 euro winnings from a very fortunate (and undeserved) bet I did lately and since it was earned with too much luck I assumed these winnings can carry forward the luck they were born with. So, starting bank is: 50 euros. 2. Coefficients I will use low coefficients, but not the usual favorites of glory hunters - 1.01-1.03 - I will go a bit higher and aim at prices around 1.20-1.30, though occasionally I may go up to 1.50 and down to 1.10, depending on the circumstances. 3. Selections I am going to bet only on teams that I know very well. No blind bets based only stats, no betting on an everyday basis. I will take my take and wait for the right selections to come here. There will be days with 7-8 bets (if the right teams meet at the right time), there will be consecutive days with no bets. I will use a lot of combos. Of course, saying all this, assuming that I don't get busted on my first day (a very high risk). 4. Stakes As I said in my intro, my stakes will be unreasonably high as compared to my bank. As a matter of fact, I intend to bet all my bank in the beginning, until I get some good grip on my glory hunt. If I am extremely fortunate and I survive the first two days (very unlikely), it will mean that I have substantially increased my bank and therefore will start staking only parts of it (half the bank). :D The longer it gets, the safer the staking will become. 5. Final Target and Termination Conditions My final target is quite brave - multiplying my initial bank by a multiple of 100. Or in other words - achieving 5,000. Important condition - I am not allowed to invest any other money beyond the starting bank. Hence, whenever the bank goes down to ground zero, it will mean that my quest is over and failed. In case that by the end of this football season - May 2013, my quest is still alive, but not accomplished its target, I will announce it finished and withdraw the money. I am now ready to sacrifice my 50 euro lucky winnings in the name of the God of the glory-hunters and mugs! :D Wish me good luck and let this really last a bit longer than a day or two - it will be fun, believe me. I will start with my first picks either on Friday evening or on Saturday. See you then, folks!

[Al_Shrew]

Good luck !!

[Skittle]

Re: The Desperate Mug Glory Hunt With an opening paragraph like that I'm surprised you're here. :unsure Have you checked out the 'successful' glory hunts on here as well as the others? In the price range that you quote I don't think you'll be troubling the leader board anytime soon. ;) Good luck all the same............and prove me wrong. :p

[Fedar]

Re: The Desperate Mug Glory Hunt Well, I am still here because I haven't started yet. :lol It is called "desperate glory hunt" for a reason, I guess. But let's see what happens anyway. There will be the starting bets soon.

[Fedar]

Re: The Desperate Mug Glory Hunt So, fellas, it is time to get started. Today and tomorrow I have planned four steps of combos and at each of them I will play all-in. Step 1: Combo 1. Werder - Hannover Over 1.5 @ 1.15 2. Besiktas - Karabuk Over 1.5 @ 1.18 3. Roma - Cagliari Cagliari Clean Sheet: no @ 1.071 Stake: 50 euros Potential Winnings: 22.66 euros

[Fedar]

Re: The Desperate Mug Glory Hunt

So, fellas, it is time to get started. Today and tomorrow I have planned four steps of combos and at each of them I will play all-in. Step 1: Combo 1. Werder - Hannover Over 1.5 @ 1.15 2. Besiktas - Karabuk Over 1.5 @ 1.18 3. Roma - Cagliari Cagliari Clean Sheet: no @ 1.071 Stake: 50 euros Potential Winnings: 22.66 euros

Besiktas - Karabuk 2:2 Werder - Hannover 2:0 Roma - Cagliari 1:4 (pending) Bet 1 - Won. Winnings: 22.66 euros New Bank: 72.66 euros Comments: Obviously Roma and Besiktas came very easily, but the big pain in the bottom was Werder-Hannover. Opening goal in the 85th minute! One would say I was very lucky, but I think I was also quite unlucky - Werder - Hannover should have been over 2.5 by the 30th minute and on any other day this game with so many chances on both ends would have featured 5-6 goals at least.

[Fedar]

Re: The Desperate Mug Glory Hunt We continue with the second bet. Bet 2: Combo 1. Everton - Aston Villa Everton Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.44 2. Schalke - Greuther Schalke @ 1.36 3. Wolfsburg - Augsburg 1X@ 1.25 Stake: 72.66 euros Potential Winnings: 105.21 euros.