Dubai Desert Classic (31st Jan - 3rd Feb)

[RussP]

Back to a customary Thursday start this week, where Westwood makes his first start of the season in a relatively weak field :ok

[RussP]

Re: Dubai Desert Classic (31st Jan - 3rd Feb) As I mentioned above, I think the field is weak and I'm sticking to those inside the top 10 in the betting for my 3 selections. Sergio holds a great chance to make it 4 Spanish winners on the bounce but his failure to bring home the bacon last week coupled with his odds of 6/1 are enough to put me off. Lee Westwood is not a golfer I can ever take single figure odds on and, whilst he has course form, he may be a bit rusty making his first start for a while. Wood & Donaldson are unlikely to win a 2nd event on the Desert Swing whilst Cabrera Bello would need to deliver something special if he's to become the first back to back winner of this event. Olesen holds solid claims but the 3 I've settled on are: H.Stenson to win Dubai Desert Classic, 3pts EW @ 12/1 Stan James (1/4 odds 1-6) After a couple of years in the doldrums, Henrik Stenson is finally showing some excellent form. Closed off 2012 with a win in South Africa and a top 10 at the year end Dubai event and has started 2013 in similar vein with top 25's in the last 2 weeks. This week it will be crucial to hit greens and, if you miss them, the ability to recover is equally important. Ranks high up for both GIR and scrambling, whilst the weakest part of his game (putting) has improved a little this year. What I would say though is that these greens are pretty flat and if you hit the short stuff, most golfers should be able to hole birdies. A winner here in 2007 and 4 more top 10's in his last 7 starts are stats you'll have to go a long way to better. This has always been his UAE track, certainly much better than the Abu Dhabi course played 2 weeks ago where he still managed a good finish. All in all, the experienced Swede has a terrific chance this week. M.Manassero to win Dubai Desert Classic, 2.5pts EW @ 28/1 Stan James (1/4 1-6) This young Italian is another who comes here with a solid chance and should be able to record his best finish in the Desert Swing despite a pair of top 25's so far. Similar to Stenson, his weakness is in his putting but tee to green he's as good as anyone. Not a long hitter, which doesn't really matter here, but his accuracy is in the top 3 or 4 on Tour. Even his scrambling stats are excellent and he's carried that forward into 2013. In the 3 weeks of the year so far, his putting has improved week on week and, whilst that has probably spoilt his chances so far, these easier greens will help and put him bang in the mix. Yet to achieve much here but he's still a young lad and only 4 players in these field are ranked higher than his OWGR of 44. To me, his price of 28/1 paying 6 places is too much for me to ignore. T.Jaidee to win Dubai Desert Classic, 2pts EW @ 25/1 Stan James (1/4 odds 1-6) The form horse of the field means Jaidee is a player we cannot leave out of calculations and he'd be fully deserving of a win after the excellent recent form he's shown. Including the 2012 finale in Dubai, Jaidee's form reads 7-6-17-3-3-9-9. That's some impressive gold and with the relatively weak field, 25/1 could be a steal. His iron play has been excellent but what has impressed me most is his up & down ability from around the green. With bunkers galore and a few trees & a bit of water also in play, he has all the attributes to keep the bogeys off his card. He will always pick up the birdies too, backed up by the fact 24 of his 27 rounds in his last 7 tournaments have been under par and 18 of those have been in the 60's. Does have 3 top 10's here and only once missing the cut in 12 starts at the track. No-one will come here with more confidence and we must remember he is a multiple winner so if he keeps getting in these positions, it's only a matter of time before he converts.

[BillyHills]

Re: Dubai Desert Classic (31st Jan - 3rd Feb) Top GB/Ireland Player 1pt EW Jamie Donaldson 10/1 Stan James (1/4 1,2,3,4) http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/omega-dubai-desert-classic/top-gb-and-ireland In cracking form at the moment and already won this season, would have been a lot closer last year here but for a bad first round and now is a much more relaible player. Rarely misses a cut and apart from Westwood at the head of the betting the GB contingent looks pretty weak. First four places up for grabs and decent value at 10/1. Top Australian Player 2pts Brett Rumford 100/30 Hills http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/omega-dubai-desert-classic/omega-dubai-desert-classic/top-australian Only 5 Aussies in the line up and Marcus Fraser is the 6/4 fav, didnt like his putting under pressure last week so keen to oppose him here. Rumford has a decent record in this event and had three solid rounds in Qatar last time out. Lost his form in the middle of 2012 but has been pretty consistent since and expect him to make it to the weekend which will put him in with a shout in this market.

[Tedthewolf]

Re: Dubai Desert Classic (31st Jan - 3rd Feb) 0.5 E/W SHANE LOWRY 55/1 SJ 1-6 ~ Can be a bit hit and miss in tournaments needs to become more consistent and contending in the last round in more but proved last year he is up to this level with a win in Portugal followed by a 5th BMW masters may get better as the year gets on but as Russ said this isn't overly strong and i don't fancy the top two in the market Garica is way, way to short imo and while i think Westwood will do well enough i think he will be blowing away the cobwebs here in his first apperance of the year and will be better for it. So its Lowry at a fair price with 6 places being paid for me, but if its not this week i think he will pick up at least one European tour win this year.

[joe mavis]

Re: Dubai Desert Classic (31st Jan - 3rd Feb) That is weird looking at oddschecker both Mannaserro and Jaidiee stood out for me too - I have opted for an each way bet on Mannaserro at 33/1 with Skybet - as watched him last week and his swing looked smooth think he is a player with bags of talent and a win on the tour will be coming his way soon am sure - hopefully this weekend. Joe

[kevshat]

Re: Dubai Desert Classic (31st Jan - 3rd Feb) Tournament preview: 2pts ew H.Stenson to win Dubai Desert Classic 12/1 Stan James (1/4 1-6) Henrik Stenson is a former champion in this event and has six top 20 finishes in the last seven years in this tournament so Emirates is a place he clearly enjoys playing at and a place he feels at home in. He showed some good form with a win and a top 7 finish in his last two outings in 2012 and he’s put in three solid performances on the desert swing so far this year and I think the Swede is well set for another strong showing in Dubai this week. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/dubai-desert-classic-betting-henrik-stenson-can-land-the-dubai-desert-crown-for-a-second-time

[RussP]

Re: Dubai Desert Classic (31st Jan - 3rd Feb) This ain't over by a long stretch. Even though the leader is at -12 and the cut mark is -3, I genuinely feel many playing the weekend could be in contention come Sunday. The wind is expected to get stronger as the day goes on tomorrow so it's likely the early starters will hit the low ones which will bunch the field up whilst 25mph winds are expected for the last 18 holes. Not certain anyone at -3 or -4 can win but a top 10 is eminently possible. -5 / -6 could well be backed in running, certainly with the bookies paying 1/4 odds first 4. Me personally, I'll stick with the 3 I've got. Good luck all :ok

[BillyHills]

Re: Dubai Desert Classic (31st Jan - 3rd Feb) Need a 64 or lower from Donaldson to have any chance of a top 4 GB/Ire finish:$ Think you need a similar miracle Russ?

[joe mavis]

Re: Dubai Desert Classic (31st Jan - 3rd Feb) Massimo just did not have enough in the locker tied 12th fell just short of the each way payout. See you next week guys. Joe

[RussP]

Re: Dubai Desert Classic (31st Jan - 3rd Feb) Yep, a disappointing week all round. Never mind though, plenty of lessons learnt and a tough desert swing to predict with Donaldson, Wood & Gallacher the winners. Not exactly a who's who of golf. South Africa next where the 2 course Joburg Open sees Charl Schwartzel a short priced favourite.