cpo Posted March 10, 2013 Share Posted March 10, 2013 Re: Tuesday 1:30: William Hill Supreme Novices' Hurdle The race My Tent Or Yours won last time out, they went at a snail's pace. In fact, some of the field in the 3 mile races that day actually did the final 2 miles quicker than the time it took MTOY to do the 2 miles. Not to mention 8 or the last 12 winners have been Irish trained and the last time a favourite won the race was back in 2004, so I don't understand how trend followers could back him. Would you want to back this horse at 6/4 or 7/4, when all he has really done is won a handicap? I will be looking to take him on at the track anyways. Agree mate, I will be taking him all day! Most likely with Champagne Fever now Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpo Posted March 10, 2013 Share Posted March 10, 2013 Re: Tuesday 1:30: William Hill Supreme Novices' Hurdle Has a horse ever won this race on its first start over hurdles? I am just looking at Flying Cross from the Pipe yard. This horse was rated 111 on the flat and finished 3rd in the group 1 Irish St Leger. Makes his hurdling debut in the Supreme Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aidymac Posted March 10, 2013 Share Posted March 10, 2013 Re: Tuesday 1:30: William Hill Supreme Novices' Hurdle Agree mate' date=' I will be taking him all day! Most likely with Champagne Fever now[/quote'] If Champagne Fever is back to his best, he would have to have a chance. He would be a lot shorter in price if you judged him solely on his Cheltenham form. Although I understand he was very disappointing behind Rule The World, but it was proven that he was not right that day as he completely turned form around with Minsk, destroying him in a Grade 1 lto and the front 2, Fever and Bright New Dawn were 13 lengths clear of 3rd. So yes, a fit Champagne Fever has to be taken very seriously, especially as we know he has Cheltenham form. Another thing that worries me about MTOY, is he has never run at Sandown or Cheltenham, 2 tracks that are very tough at the finish and are very sharp. I have antepost bets on Jezki @ 9/2 and Melodic Rendezvous @ 16/1, and if you judge the race strictly on form, Jezki has buckets in hand. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted March 10, 2013 Share Posted March 10, 2013 Re: Tuesday 1:30: William Hill Supreme Novices' Hurdle If Champagne Fever is back to his best, he would have to have a chance. He would be a lot shorter in price if you judged him solely on his Cheltenham form. Although I understand he was very disappointing behind Rule The World, but it was proven that he was not right that day as he completely turned form around with Minsk, destroying him in a Grade 1 lto and the front 2, Fever and Bright New Dawn were 13 lengths clear of 3rd. So yes, a fit Champagne Fever has to be taken very seriously, especially as we know he has Cheltenham form. Another thing that worries me about MTOY, is he has never run at Sandown or Cheltenham, 2 tracks that are very tough at the finish and are very sharp. I have antepost bets on Jezki @ 9/2 and Melodic Rendezvous @ 16/1, and if you judge the race strictly on form, Jezki has buckets in hand. spot on if you ask me Aidy, too many judge season form when it comes to Cheltenham but its Cheltenham form you need, winning round flat tracks is taken on its merits but that is one of my negatives for horses, i love horses with Cheltenham form. There are 4 from last seasons bumper and MTOY has become the usual hype horse, cannot be beaten etc etc, could run in champion hurdle etc etc. It does come out well on the trends and will be tagging along on the bridle. Its performance up the hill will determine if its a great or not. Dunguib, Cue Card, Cousin Vinny to name but 3 failed although i believe MTOY rating achieved at Newbury is far higher than they achieved. My top 3 is CF, MTOY and Jezki at this present time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRat Posted March 10, 2013 Share Posted March 10, 2013 Re: Tuesday 1:30: William Hill Supreme Novices' Hurdle MTOY might have 'only won a handicap' but he has also beaten a subsequent Grade 1 winner comfortably after pulling all the way around Ascot, where he still found, and the handicap in question regardless of pace was competitive and he won easily. On top of this we know the owner likes to take the handicap route rather than graded with a lot of horses, he did the same with Darlan (although he didn't win the race last year). The stable have said MTOY is already better than Darlan was - not when he was a Novice, this season, and that if they didn't have Binocular in the Champion Hurdle he would be running in that. He is also rated, I think, 16lbs higher than your average Supreme winner. I agree I would not back him now having said that. Short price favourites have been turned over in this race but it could be argued non of them had run up to the standard MTOY has. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aidymac Posted March 10, 2013 Share Posted March 10, 2013 Re: Tuesday 1:30: William Hill Supreme Novices' Hurdle MTOY might have 'only won a handicap' but he has also beaten a subsequent Grade 1 winner comfortably after pulling all the way around Ascot, where he still found, and the handicap in question regardless of pace was competitive and he won easily. On top of this we know the owner likes to take the handicap route rather than graded with a lot of horses, he did the same with Darlan (although he didn't win the race last year). The stable have said MTOY is already better than Darlan was - not when he was a Novice, this season, and that if they didn't have Binocular in the Champion Hurdle he would be running in that. He is also rated, I think, 16lbs higher than your average Supreme winner. I agree I would not back him now having said that. Short price favourites have been turned over in this race but it could be argued non of them had run up to the standard MTOY has. I would have to disagree with you there personally mate. Jezki already beat Champagne Fever in a Grade 1 at Fairyhouse, and destroyed Waaheb by 6 lengths in a Grade 1 last time out, and that Weld animal is very good. Yes, MTOY beat a horse that went on to win a Grade 1, but the end of the day, right now MTOY is a Grade 3 handicap winner that won a slow run race on a flat track, and for me, nothing has run to the standard of Jezki. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRat Posted March 10, 2013 Share Posted March 10, 2013 Re: Tuesday 1:30: William Hill Supreme Novices' Hurdle That Jezki/Champagne Fever form line, imo, is terrible. The bumper form last year looks bad now and Waaheb got battered at odds on the other day. Jezki hasn't even run this year, and AP has chosen MTOY over him anyway. They might be Grade 1 races in name but I wouldn't get too carried away with that when non of the formlines tie in to MTOY. Un Atout is interesting for sure. I've had a saver on him All imo of course! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Primevil Posted March 10, 2013 Share Posted March 10, 2013 Re: Tuesday 1:30: William Hill Supreme Novices' Hurdle One thing is for sure...AP is popular with the majority of racing folk/punters. If he wins on MTOY, which IMO he will...He will go down in punting history, JP will have a big tilt at this, I beleive his biggest for some time. Lets hope those NASTY bookies get a hammering in the first race,,,ODDS ON...Maybe, just Maybe! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aidymac Posted March 10, 2013 Share Posted March 10, 2013 Re: Tuesday 1:30: William Hill Supreme Novices' Hurdle I am not doubting that My Tent Or Yours is the most likely winner, because he is. However, at 7/4 or 6/4, that is a shocking price, that is my point. MTOY beat Taquin De Seuil, who won a crap Grade 1 Rat, and beat Cotton Mill last time out who is not a Grade 1 winner, although I do fancy Cotton Mill for the County Hurdle I must admit. I also think calling the Champagne Fever form line rubbish is unfair, as he beat The New One by 6 lengths in the bumper last year and The New one is a big fancy for the Neptune. Moscow Mannon is going today at Naas, let's see how he fares as he was 4th to CF last year in the bumper. Last time out he beat Bright New Dawn who came out and hosed up in a Grade 2 lto. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpo Posted March 10, 2013 Share Posted March 10, 2013 Re: Tuesday 1:30: William Hill Supreme Novices' Hurdle AP has a history of getting beat in this and a lot of the time when riding the best horse...Darlan, Sprinter Sacre and Binocular spring to mind. I disagree about last years bumper form as I felt last years Cheltenham bumper form was one of the best in recent times. If you look at what Jezki and The New One have achieved this year and they were well beaten in it. Ifandbutwhynot finished last of the 18 that finished the race and that horse is rated 130. MTOY may well be the next big thing over hurdles but I would swerve him for this, in a race that has a poor recent history for big reputations. If he bolts up, which he could do then fair enough but at the current odds I would much rather go each way with something else. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRat Posted March 10, 2013 Share Posted March 10, 2013 Re: Tuesday 1:30: William Hill Supreme Novices' Hurdle Of course good horse will come out of the Bumper though, I'm saying its not that strong when it was run. The New One beat MTOY in the Aintree Bumper. Hurdling is different all together. Pique Sous as an example is a terrible jumper, Waaheb isn't great. NYE has done nothing of note, Pique Sous might have won 2 races over hurdles, but both have been well below what you would expect. Moscow Mannion just got well beat despite money coming. Minsk was stuffed the next few times after Jezki beat him. Mala Beach/Bright New Dawn have patchy form at best. Aidy, you say TDS won a crap Grade 1 to make a point, but then go on about the Graded races the Irish horse have won which imo are also pretty poor. TDS won a Grade 2 and 1 by 6 and 9 lengths. Rule The World looks good I agree, and beat Cf easily as a result. CF has a good chance this year with how the ground is now. We agree on the price issue anyway! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRat Posted March 10, 2013 Share Posted March 10, 2013 Re: Tuesday 1:30: William Hill Supreme Novices' Hurdle Also, Rule The World and Champagne Fever are the same price for their respective races! EDIT - Forgot CF was not right that date. Proximity form Minsk would say he was well off Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blazing Bailey Posted March 10, 2013 Share Posted March 10, 2013 Re: Tuesday 1:30: William Hill Supreme Novices' Hurdle FWIW my two against the field would be Dodging Bullets and Jezki. The way Jezki quickened LTO was incredible and he has shown he has the guts for a fight when beating Champagne Fever (who I think will have a great EW chance). Dodging Bullets is the most interesting for me because he ticks a lot of the right boxes, especially when looking at his performance in the Triumph last year when only a 4yo. I think he will be the best horse from this side of the channel and it just depends on how well the Irish form stacks up as to whether he will be good enough to win. Two that I cant get a grip on are Mozoltov and Un Atout. They could be anything, although Un Atout hasnt really beaten anything and I think I could have won that race with Davy Russell on my back! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beaker1 Posted March 10, 2013 Share Posted March 10, 2013 Re: Tuesday 1:30: William Hill Supreme Novices' Hurdle cant see jezki placing never mind winning and the reason i say that is because his form figures with more than 12 rivals read 85 compaired with 111111 in fields of more than 12 or less,and 5 of those wins were in single-figure fields he could do no better than eighth in the champion bumper on good ground last and all of his best form as come on softer the festival opener has featured 15 runners or more every year this century and this fast run affair ,usually on quicker ground is the polar opposite to the small field events that jezki has been winning this season but good luck with your bets BB Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Primevil Posted March 10, 2013 Share Posted March 10, 2013 Re: Tuesday 1:30: William Hill Supreme Novices' Hurdle No doubt someone will go 2/1 MTOY on Tuesday morning...That may be the biggest prce you will see him for some time... We have a very fast improving 162 horse with potential to be a 170+ horse as a novice, You can count them on 1 hand..in the history of NH racing. 2/1 is value IMO. Every time I look at the Newbury race, I'm feeling all warm and cuddley.:cigar Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aidymac Posted March 10, 2013 Share Posted March 10, 2013 Re: Tuesday 1:30: William Hill Supreme Novices' Hurdle No doubt someone will go 2/1 MTOY on Tuesday morning...That may be the biggest prce you will see him for some time... We have a very fast improving 162 horse with potential to be a 170+ horse as a novice, You can count them on 1 hand..in the history of NH racing. 2/1 is value IMO. Every time I look at the Newbury race, I'm feeling all warm and cuddley.:cigar How on earth anyone thinks his current price of 7/4 is value, is beyond the realm of belief. He was 25/1 before he won his last race, that was value. Even if he hoses up, this horse represents the worst value of the entire festival. Potential to be a 170+ horse? That is only potential, he has done nothing yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRat Posted March 10, 2013 Share Posted March 10, 2013 Re: Tuesday 1:30: William Hill Supreme Novices' Hurdle He was around 10/1 before the Betfair 25/1 at the start of the season and backed in, then when Chatterbox beat him he went out to max price of 20/1 before coming in again You obviously don't think winning a competitive handicap off 149 easily is that impressive Aidy :rollin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aidymac Posted March 10, 2013 Share Posted March 10, 2013 Re: Tuesday 1:30: William Hill Supreme Novices' Hurdle He was around 10/1 before the Betfair 25/1 at the start of the season and backed in, then when Chatterbox beat him he went out to max price of 20/1 before coming in again You obviously don't think winning a competitive handicap off 149 easily is that impressive Aidy :rollin It was extremely impressive mate, but still does not justify 7/4 for me. Why? Well the track is a very specialist track, it is one thing doing it on a flat track, you can't just travel at Cheltenham, you have to stay up that hill too. Another thing, they went at a snails pace in the Betfair, he won't have that luxury in the Supreme. The times in the Betfair were awful, as I already said some of the horses that ran over a mile further that day did the last 2 miles in a faster time than MTOY. Then you look at favourites reputations for this race, fav's do very badly in this race. To justify veing 7/4 at this moment in time, he had better win in style, and if he does then maybe 7/4 was value. Will he win in style? I really doubt it, not with proven Cheltenham performers like Champagne Fever, Melodic Rendezvous, and Dodging Bullets in the field. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Primevil Posted March 10, 2013 Share Posted March 10, 2013 Re: Tuesday 1:30: William Hill Supreme Novices' Hurdle The TIMEFORM boys have him as the best novice [TABLE] [TR] [TD=width: 20%, align: center]168p[/TD] [TD]MY TENT OR YOURS[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 20%, align: center]158p[/TD] [TD]PONT ALEXANDRE[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 20%, align: center]154p[/TD] [TD]JEZKI[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 20%, align: center]152[/TD] [TD]DODGING BULLETS[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 20%, align: center]151p[/TD] [TD]AT FISHERS CROSS[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 20%, align: center]151p[/TD] [TD]RULE THE WORLD[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 20%, align: center]151p[/TD] [TD]THE NEW ONE[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 20%, align: center]151[/TD] [TD]CAUSE OF CAUSES[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 20%, align: center]150p[/TD] [TD]MELODIC RENDEAVOUS[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 20%, align: center]150+[/TD] [TD]CHAMPAGNE FEVER[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 20%, align: center]150[/TD] [TD]DEFY LOGIC[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 20%, align: center]148p[/TD] [TD]FORGOTTEN VOICE[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 20%, align: center]148[/TD] [TD]BRIGHT NEW DAWN[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 20%, align: center]147P[/TD] [TD]BALLYCASEY[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 20%, align: center]147p[/TD] [TD]ANNIE POWER[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 20%, align: center]147p[/TD] [TD]UN ATOUT[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 20%, align: center]146p[/TD] [TD]UP AND GO[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 20%, align: center]145p[/TD] [TD]MOZOLTOV[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 20%, align: center]145p[/TD] [TD]PENDRA [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] No other horse in any division has a 10 point clear advantage..People with donkeys years of experience saying "the most impessive winner of a totesport" in many a year..Novice or experienced... AND HE BEAT NOTHING!... Do let me know as soon as you can afer 1:30pm on Tuesday, whether you are impressed or not...He is value imo, and the bookies will get there ass's kicked up and down that cheltenham hill with this one..IMO of course. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aidymac Posted March 10, 2013 Share Posted March 10, 2013 Re: Tuesday 1:30: William Hill Supreme Novices' Hurdle I already said he is the most likely winner. Does not detract from the fact his price is pants. If he wins by 5 lengths, fair enough, value, but I don't think he will win by that margin. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tedthewolf Posted March 10, 2013 Share Posted March 10, 2013 Re: Tuesday 1:30: William Hill Supreme Novices' Hurdle The one i fancy in this is is Dermot Weld trained ROCK CRITIC overpriced at 25's esp with 5 places up for grabs with Will Hill. A winner of 6 out of 18 flat starts and a easy winner on both starts over hurdles. Irish horses have a good record in this over the years esp with their outsiders and this horse will love the soft/heavy going which look likely for the first day and imo is a cracking e/w bet with 5 place up for grabs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Primevil Posted March 10, 2013 Share Posted March 10, 2013 Re: Tuesday 1:30: William Hill Supreme Novices' Hurdle My very last point on this...The bookies are frightened to death of this winning, their liabilities must be thru the roof..That is why for the first time in their history..WH are first 5 1/4 odds...In other words they dont want any more money for the FAV, they see a balance in the laying of the rest of the field, and will try to make their book up thru the e/w market...also by offering the worst prices e/w. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elchubb Posted March 10, 2013 Share Posted March 10, 2013 Looks like River Maigue is out, drifting on Betfair, now out To 33's Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bathtime For Rupert Posted March 10, 2013 Share Posted March 10, 2013 Re: Tuesday 1:30: William Hill Supreme Novices' Hurdle Looks like River Maigue is out' date=' drifting on Betfair, now out To 33's[/quote'] Bloody hope not! Henderson said he had him in the best form he's been in. My early fancies aren't having much luck with their preps! Grandouet negative reports, Balthazar King out, Aupcharlie now joined by Dynaste in a very winnable race and River Maigue right out. Jesus. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted March 10, 2013 Share Posted March 10, 2013 Re: Tuesday 1:30: William Hill Supreme Novices' Hurdle good debate on the supreme here and i always love this race. If MTOY hoses up, it will be great for racing no doubt but i keep seeing Champagne Fever being very handy and taking it up powering up the hill with MTOY coming off the bridle and finding not enough to get past it. I just hope Mullins doesnt change his mind & switch CF to the neptune. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpo Posted March 10, 2013 Share Posted March 10, 2013 Re: Tuesday 1:30: William Hill Supreme Novices' Hurdle I think there is very little chance of CF being switched. With CF in the Supreme, his owner has an excellent chance of taking all 3 grade 1 novice hurdle races with Champagne Fever, Pont Alexandre and Ballycasey. Looks like a half decent treble! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 Re: Tuesday 1:30: William Hill Supreme Novices' Hurdle i heard about Melodic on saturday, didnt post it up but surprised theyve only just announced it!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoFear Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 Re: Tuesday 1:30: William Hill Supreme Novices' Hurdle 12 DECLARED - Cause Of Causes, Champagne Fever, Cheltenian, Dodging Bullets, Fire King, Jezki, My Tent Or Yours, Ostentation, Pique Sous, Puffin Billy, River Maigue, Un Atout Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lodge Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 Re: Tuesday 1:30: William Hill Supreme Novices' Hurdle I'm swaying towards MTOY at the moment, i'm not gonna go as far as saying there's massive value in him at around 2/1 but I think its a fair price and to my mind that last run is by far the best form on offer. Aside from him I like Jezki and 9/2 EW with the 5 places at Hills would probably be my alternative. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 Re: Tuesday 1:30: William Hill Supreme Novices' Hurdle 1.30 Cheltenham: William Hill Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) (2m110y) Promises to be a cracking start to the Festival with one of many people’s bankers My Tent Or Yours expected to get the Henderson yard off to a flyer. It’s hard to argue against him after a superb performance at Newbury and I’ll be surprised if he can’t win this on the way to better things next season. The Irish raiders have to be respected and Jezki has done nothing wrong but my idea of an each way alternative has to be Dodging Bullets who has course form and a decent run behind Darlan last time out, which stands up to, any of the novice form on show here. Selections: 3pts My Tent Or Yours 2/1 >Boylesports 1pt EW Dodging Bullets 11/1 Coral Full Preview; https://www.punterslounge.com/cheltenham-festival/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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