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Tuesday 1:30: William Hill Supreme Novices' Hurdle


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Re: Tuesday 1:30: William Hill Supreme Novices' Hurdle Supreme Novices - Pique Sous 1pt EW @ 20/1 Bet365 1/4 odds 3 places Backing this horse for this race has been the plan for a while now, no matter what other horses have done. Yes the likes of Jezki and My Tent or Yours have been so impressive so far in what they have achieved but I just have a gut feeling with Pique Sous. He looked the likely winner of last years Champion Bumper turning for home as he was travelling best just in behind the eventual winner but was just outstayed by both Champagne Fever and New Years Eve. He clearly has plenty of speed and should have strengthened up over the last year. He hasn't had the typical preparation of a winner of the Supreme but connections haven't had the chance to get more experience into him due to the weather. He will come into the race on the back of a maiden hurdle win and a win on the all weather at Dundalk but that doesn't faze me. Willie Mullins managed to train Ebaziyan to win the race at 40/1 on the back of a win in a maiden hurdle. I have no doubts Pique Sous could be top class. Last years Champion Bumper was top class if you think of what the race has thrown up. Both The New One and Jezki finished 6th and 8th respectively and look what they have achieved already. It is possible connections will try and get another run into him but I think he will go straight for the Supreme now. He has already shown a liking for Cheltenham, which is a plus, and I feel he goes there with a good chance if he gets his ground. He is French bred which is also a positive as they tend to do well at Cheltenham. Will be interesting to see who Ruby Walsh rides in the race but I feel he may choose to ride this one... or thats what I hope!

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Re: Tuesday 1:30: William Hill Supreme Novices' Hurdle I have already backed Pique Sous for this race but I am going to have a smaller bet on Dodging Bullets as well. Starting to really like this one for this race. A 4L 4th in the Triumph last year and according to the trainer he has strengthened up considerably this season. He ran a cracker to finish 3rd to Darlan on unsuitable ground at Kempton. He hasn't had any race run to suit so far this season but he will definitely get that in the Supreme. I think he will be hard to keep out of the frame.

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Re: Tuesday 1:30: William Hill Supreme Novices' Hurdle Supreme Novices' Hurdle Stats: 8 of the last 14 winners have been trained in Ireland Only 3 of the last 16 horses to be sent off at 3/1 or shorter have won 7 of the last 8 winners have been out of the top three in the betting 14 of the last 16 winners won on their final start before the race 6 of the last 8 winners had run 3 or more times over hurdles prior to the race Only 2 horses since 1993 have won having not run within 45 days prior to the race. I'm not a huge stats man in the sense that I wouldn't let stats totally put me off a horse who I feel has all the right credentials. However, they are there for a reason and ideally I'd like my selection to fit at least some of the criteria set out by history. My Tent Or Yours has been all the rage for the opening race in 2013 but you don't have to cast your mind back far to days when the likes of Dunguib and Cue Card were seen as bankers to get the festival up and running for the punters. Both of those came into the race with flashy looking records (both won the Champion Bumper the previous year) and perhaps suffered from a little too much exuberance. The winners of the races when those favourites failed to fire were Menorah and Al Ferof - both of whom look a different kettle of fish. Gallopers rather than speedsters (relatively, of course) - both of whom looking good chase performers over 2m4f with the potential for further. With this in mind, despite how impressive Nicky Henderson's runner looked in the Betfair hurdle last time, there's always the nagging doubt over whether we'll see a horse with more assured stamina dig in up the hill and cause an upset. At the prices I think it's the only way I can view the race from a betting point of view. I accept that My Tent Or Yours is the most likely winner but history dictates that this is a race where looking for value can prove rewarding. I do think this is a very difficult race but my idea of a bet comes in the shape of Henderson's second-string. RIVER MAIGUE perhaps has one of the less attractive profiles coming into this race and his form on the face of it doesn't look as strong. However, this is the type of race where I want to know what my horse is going to find off the bridle. You're unlikely to win a competitive Supreme on the bit and although this horse doesn't have a brilliant turn of foot, that doesn't concern me too much. He isn't devoid of speed (takes a hold) but still wants an out-and-out gallop and I think he'll be finishing to good effect. His natural speed should take him into the race so I'm hopeful he won't be staying on when it's all over, but his defeats over hurdles have come in farcical races behind good opposition. He jumps well and as Henderson said in his stable tour prior to the season, he'll be best on a galloping track and although he's speedy, he'll stay. The comments don't scream out an electric performer but so long as they go a good tempo in this, you might not need one. Barry Geraghty will take the ride so there's one positive from the fact JP McManus has My Tent Or Yours and although he looks to have plenty to find, his form is good notwithstanding the fact that Tuesday's race should suit a great deal more. He has been beaten twice from three starts over timber but being beaten by Dodging Bullets and Far West is no disgrace. Both races turned into sprints and both winners had the run of it. Although my selection received 7lbs from the former, he was lacking the race fitness of the winner and it simply turned into a sprint of less than half a mile at Ascot last time when trying to give weight away to the very promising juvenile. Lacks the turn of foot for those sort of races as mentioned so the defeats are no bad thing necessarily as we now get a fair price. He won readily at Kempton inbetween those efforts in a novice race and has had a recent run - something which two of the other contenders (Dodging Bullets and Un Atout) have failed to achieve. The latter has also only had two runs to date over hurdles. Can't rule out some of the others, either, but I just think at a price of 14/1 you're likely to get a good run for your money as he appears to have the ideal combination of speed, jumping and stamina required for this. He may just lack that spark but so long as they go a good gallop, that might not matter quite so much. Have gone in ante-post on him as he seems pretty ground versatile. Going each-way as well on this one. Advice: 1pt e/w RIVER MAIGUE @ 14/1 (Betfred)

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Re: Tuesday 1:30: William Hill Supreme Novices' Hurdle Race 1 Supreme novices hurdle Key Trends 14/16 winners having won LTO 15/16 ran in Jan (4) or Feb (11) other winner ran in Nov. 14/16 had at least 3 runs that season. 15/16 had at least 2 wins that season 13/16 had ran 4 times or less that season. 4/16 Favs 8/16 Irish trained 1. Reducing the field Take the best 3 stats from above, LTO Jan / Feb, 1st LTO, & 2 wins this season leaves us with: Champagne Fever, Ifandbutwhynot, Melodic Rendezvous, Mozoltov, My Tent or Yours, Pique Sous, Rock Critic, Rule the world, Un Atout. Irish trained horses must be kept on side as they have a good record (bold above) The main profile is 3-4 runs and LTO in Feb which leaves us with: Champagne Fever, Melodic Rendezvous, My Tent or Yours. 2. Consider the main contenders A race now totally dominated by the performance of My Tent or Yours in the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury. However, this has been a graveyard for favourites in recent years and although often won by a top trainer, the price is normally a fair one. The main trainers do well in this race and Henderson has 2 in the race. Willie Mullins has 4 currently still in the race and should be feared as he targets this meeting now in all types of races. The Cheltenham bumper form had not been a good trend however Al Ferof turned that on its head in 2011 and Cinders and Ashes did the same in 2012. Champagne Fever came from winning the bumper easily and has found it difficult this year but won LTO. Pique Sous (3rd) and Jezki (8th) also ran in the bumper last year. A few horses come into the race unbeaten – Un Atout for Mullins, , done nothing wrong in 2 hurdle wins to date but profile of the race prefers 3-4 runs so inexperience may tell. Rock Critic from Dermot Welds stable has only had 2 runs winning them both and is a former flat horse. We cannot ignore the favourite either after its last run but this is Cheltenham and my concern is that all its races have been on flat tracks and although felt good enough to line up in the Champion Hurdle, its time may come another year as its very short here. 3. Other factors Average win odds for this race are over 12/1 for the last 10 years which included a 20/1 & 40/1 winner. 4. Final analysis We shouldn’t ignore the bumper stat from recent years and those with course form & irish. I would say that Champagne Fever could surprise again and be the best of the irish challengers. Nicholls has Dodging bullets in the race who ran in a very competitive xmas hurdle at Kempton and won’t be far away but doesn’t meet the key trends. Melodic Rendezvous has won well on poor ground this year and did win here at Cheltenham. My concern is that the ground won’t be as soft and not from a top yard. Its between the favourite and Champagne Fever for me. 5. Bets [TABLE]

[TR] [TD]CHAMPAGNE FEVER [/TD] [TD]5PTS EW [/TD] [TD] 14/1 [/TD] [TD] Ladbrokes [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]MY TENT OR YOURS [/TD] [TD]10PTS WIN [/TD] [TD] 7/4 [/TD] [TD] Skybet [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]
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Re: Tuesday 1:30: William Hill Supreme Novices' Hurdle

Ruby's chosen Champagne Fever and Mullins has avoided soft ground all season with this horse!
Okay cool. I seen an interview with ruby and him saying he will wait to see what the weathers like before he chooses his horse . I didnt realise he had chosen already. Is the ground definitely going to be soft then? Ive been looked at the forcasts and its says its going to snow and freeze.
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Re: Tuesday 1:30: William Hill Supreme Novices' Hurdle

Seems that a lot of people are overlooking un atout which seems strange when you consider davey russell has said un atout is everything sir des champs was at the same age and then more.
There is little in the way of form to go on though. He has won easily but questionable what he has beaten. A frustrating. Horse to analyse!
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Re: Tuesday 1:30: William Hill Supreme Novices' Hurdle The race My Tent Or Yours won last time out, they went at a snail's pace. In fact, some of the field in the 3 mile races that day actually did the final 2 miles quicker than the time it took MTOY to do the 2 miles. Not to mention 8 or the last 12 winners have been Irish trained and the last time a favourite won the race was back in 2004, so I don't understand how trend followers could back him. Would you want to back this horse at 6/4 or 7/4, when all he has really done is won a handicap? I will be looking to take him on at the track anyways.

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Re: Tuesday 1:30: William Hill Supreme Novices' Hurdle Having already backed Pique Sous I am bit gutted about the ground. Connections have avoided it all year so I would have to be a big negative come Tuesday. His stablemate Champagne Fever however will relish it. He probably does want further but this trip at Cheltenham on testing ground in a fast run race will suit him down to the ground.

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