UFC on FOX 6

[Keyskills]

This event is on Saturday 26th January and weigh ins are tomorrow night, my full preview won't be up until I have seen the weigh ins just to make sure someone that I'm in favour of hasn't had a poor weight cut or training camp (as proved in the last card, Ben Rothwell had a poor training camp, which swayed my decision to Gonzaga, who went on to submit him in the 2nd round). However, here's my brief view on the upcoming card, just looking at the main card. Erik Koch Versus Ricardo Lamas I would definitely say there is value in Erik Koch as I believe he is by far the better all round fighter, in most areas I think he does have an advantage over Lamas. I believe Lamas will look for the takedown, but Koch has great defense and i'll believe he'll be able to keep the fight standing and dictate how the fight goes. However, Koch is coming back from a LONG layoff, without fighting in the past 13 months, this can always be a danger due to 'ring rust', where the fighter may not be fully prepared for it, and may need 1 fight to get back into the swing of things, such as testing of his cardio etc. This is why I like to wait for the weigh ins before I make any final decisions. Anthony Pettis Versus Donald Cerrone I am kinda surprised by these odds, as I expected Pettis to be more of a clear favourite than he actually is. I do think this will be an exciting fight, and potentially a close fight. Although Cerrone has said that he will keep the fight standing against Pettis, which I think will be his downfall as I believe Pettis is the more superior striker and will be able to pick out an easy decision victory (if not finish Cerrone) if the fight does go this way. So for now, I'd be favouring Pettis, and at the current odds, it makes it harder to avoid, as I'd have expected him to be closer to 1/2 IMO. Rampage Jackson Versus Glover Teixeira I am a big fan of Teixeira at the moment, and he is by far the more hungrier fighter. Rampage hasn't been quiet about his views on the UFC and Dana White, and has made it clear that he'll be parting ways with UFC after this fight. He has said that he has been training hard for this fight and has trained to 'destroy' Glover, which may make this a more competitive fight, if Rampage's head is really in this. Although Glover will still be the hungrier fighter, although not fighting Rampage in his prime, it'll definitely be the biggest with of Teixeira's MMA career. I still feel, no matter what Rampage we see on Saturday, that Teixeira will come out with the victory, but I'll have to wait for the weigh ins to see what kind of shape Rampage is in, and whether or not I think Glover will be able to finish Rampage or not. It sounds like Glover won't be wanting to trade with Rampage, and will be looking to close the distance and take him down and work from there, where in this case I think a submission victory would be more likely, although with someone of Glover's power, you can never rule out the KO/TKO. This is definitely the fight I am looking forward to the most, even though it has the potential to be a poor one, just to see how Glover copes with Rampage. But no bets until the weigh ins. Demetrious Johnson Versus John Dodson I was a fan of Dodson throughout his spell at the Ultimate Fighter, and knew from day one that he was going to win that. This fight won't be a case of deciding on this because of the weigh ins, as there is no doubt Demetrious Johnson's cardio will be ready for 30 rounds of action, he has an endless gas tank, and cardio will never be an issue for him. The thing is, can Dodson keep up with his pace? I highly doubt it, I don't think anyone can to be honest. Dodson will definitely need the KO to win this, and if he's to get it, he'll need it early, because Johnson usually looks fresher in the 5th round than he does in the 1st. I do like Dodson, but he hasn't really impressed me too much in his last two wins, the decision victory over Tim Elliot wasn't the most convincing and his KO win over Formiga was a boring and tentative fight which ended with one flash punch. But this comes back to Dodson's tank versus Johnson's, I can't see Dodson connecting with any powerful KO punches and Johnson will literally run rings around him until he tires, so I'd have to say Johnson by decision stands out to me on this, as that tends to be the way he wins his fights. Although if Dodson's gas completely drains (which it probably will), Johnson may be able to finish the fight in the later rounds, if he wants to. There are my initial thoughts on the main card of UFC on FOX 6 this Saturday, expect a full review on Saturday evening with my specific bets. I may focus more on singles with low stake accumulators as well, as judging by the last card, I was really unlucky with a few decisions which cost me accumulators and my singles managed to save the day. Two singles I'm leaning to the most at the moment are Glover Teixeira to win inside the distance/or submission (depending on the odds) and Demetrious Johnson to win by decision (yet again, depending on the odds, would want odds of evens or better for this) Thanks for reading, and be sure to come back on Saturday evening 3-4 hours before the event starts to check out my full preview of the card, if anyone else has any views/knowledge on this card, feel free to share :)

[Plastikman]

Re: UFC on FOX 6 Great write up. Koch was due for a title shot when he was last fighting and is on a 4 fight win streak but agree that the ring rust factor needs to be considered. I think he will edge this one. Really liking the look of Pettis at the odds available- totally agree that his odds should be shorter than what they are. Still can't forget how poor Cerrone was when Nate Diaz picked him apart. Diaz really dominated Cerrone that day. Pettis showed up really well vs Henderson when they fought in the fight that will be most remembered for 'the kick'. I think Pettis will have too much for The Cowboy and I will certainly be betting on Pettis. A Pettis Henderson rematch is an exciting prospect. Glover has looked very impressive in his last two fights but Kyle Kingsbury and Moldonado aren't high level fighters. Rampage is a big step up but which Rampage will show up? This sounds like its going to be his last UFC fight going by his comments this week sounding off to Dana about fighters pay. He didnt seem himself in Japan when he lost to Bader and expect more from him against Glover. Im still siding with Glover here but caution is advised- no bet for me on the short odds available. May post some more later...writing on my phone is a pain!

[Keyskills]

Re: UFC on FOX 6 Yeah, I watched the weigh ins last night and Rampage does look up for this, he said it's the easiest weight cut he's had as well, does worry me a bit as Teixeira did get rocked and nearly finished himself in his fight against Maldonado, who overall, he absolutely destroyed. So if he struggles to close the distance, Rampage really could get a KO here. Still swaying with Teixeira, if it goes to the ground I don't think Rampage will be able to deal with the power and strength of Teixeira when he's on his back. Saying that, I'm definitely convinced we'll see a finish here though, so fight to NOT go the distance at 8/11 on ladbrokes stands out as a better bet for me. If Rampage wins, it'll be by KO. Teixeira could definitely get a sub/tko victory here and I really can't see this going the distance with the punching power of the two fighters, and that fact that Teixeira has finished 17 of his 19 professional wins (12 by KO, 5 by submission)

[Plastikman]

Re: UFC on FOX 6 Jackson to win in rounds 1-3, 5/1 on Skybet are pretty good odds. I feel Glover is being over estimated a bit here but one thing for sure is that its going to be a good fight. Glovers ground game is good and feel he will take the fight there to avoid standing and trading. Not to go the distance is not a bad shout- that sure was some brutal ground and pound punishment Glover dished out in his last fight. That would have finished off most fighters.

[Keyskills]

Re: UFC on FOX 6 Sorry for no full preview but the pub was calling after what was a dire 90 minutes of football that I went to see today! Going to keep it short and sweet and here are my main bets for tonight: Krauss, Koch, Pettis and Johnson all to win. Kraus, Koch and Teixeira fight all to NOT go the distance. Neither of these bets are great odds, but ones I am fairly happy with. Will probably add more singles throughout the night, most fights i've probably thought about too much which has put me off betting them, and after the last event, I think the singles are the way to go here.

[Keyskills]

Re: UFC on FOX 6 Singles for the main card: Koch via KO/TKO @ 9/5 Pettis win @ 4/6 (tempted by Pettis by decision @ 13/10 but not a good enough value for an outcome) Teixeira by submission @ 7/2 (only a small bet as could easily end as KO/TKO either way) + Fight to not go the distance @ 4/6 Not the best odds for the main event, but I do think Demetrious Johnson will win by decision, but at 8/11 don't think the value is truly there, I can't bet on a 5 round fight to go all the way at odds under evens. Finally an accumulator of: Koch via KO/TKO, Pettis win, Glover Teixeira inside the distance and Johnson win.

[Smartigan]

Re: UFC on FOX 6 Tex is good but only Bones Jones has finished Rampage Wiman let me down :( i had Tex, Mighty Mouse, Guida, Pettis and Wiman

[Smartigan]

Re: UFC on FOX 6 Great breakdown btw I'll try and pitch in before the next UFC event also