6 Nations

[Spankyf]

Re: 6 Nations Ireland France I've been pondering this game and I think France have the ability to win it, though its a risky bet with both sides in poor form. Nobody would have predicted this to be 4th vs 6th pre-tournament. Ireland were looking like a squad capable of delivering a solid 3rd place finish with an outside chance of winning it. Typically of their inconsistent form since 2011, they flattered to deceive since the first half against Wales. Squad selection has been my main gripe against the management team with not enough contingency planning having happened over the last two years. While injuries and depth have counted, players showing good performances like McCarthy and Henry (and Ross if you take this snapshot a few years ago) should have been picked years ago and should be complementing the younger lads like Ryan, Marshall et al now, rather than stepping into the breach uncapped during competitive tests. The mgmt team will point to the aforementioned new caps as proof of squad expansion but a lot of them would never have gotten a look in in the first place but for injuries. A lots been said of a France team that hasn't a win for the longest time in the competition since the 60's. St Andre has fallen victim to the paymasters of the Top14 and his players are playing as a disparate tired bunch. Michalak has been vilified but I think the selection of Machenaud (though he's a good player no doubt) ahead of Parra was the bigger error. Many question Trinh Duc & Fofana's deployment among others but I think this tournament is one to forget for the team but maybe thats the point. England seemed to take a year trialling new systems last season and are reaping the benefits this year and I think France are building a new collective that will take time to gel. With the pressure off they dispatched three good sides in the Autumn and that quality hasn't disappeared, I think they just need the correct motivation (they had plenty against Australia and Argentina from previous defeats to both). They showed fight against England and looked a little surer of themselves in that game. Les Bleus selection tomorrow is a lot more balanced and I do think its a lot better on paper than the home side who have a few players who won't last 40 let alone 80, though beleaguered Irish fans shouldn't be surprised to see Ross & MacCarthy pushed to the limits of their fitness by shallow options in the front five. I think the key tomorrow will be the packs and especially the back row and I think O'Mahony in particular will be found out against the Toulouse trio (though O'Briens performances deserve huge praise and a ticket to Australia in June). Michalak needs to plays smart but I expect the pack will take their cues from Parra and it will be a tight attritional affair with two desperate sides. My heart hopes but my head says it will be a French win tomorrow. France -1 @ Evens

[Marazan]

Re: 6 Nations Weather currently horrible here up in Edinburgh.

[Nobber]

Re: 6 Nations Many thanks for the write-ups, Spanky, you must be kicking the dog but spot on with your analysis. Reading these reinforced my belief we'd win although the Ref. spoiled the game for me, and many others. It was also bloody freezing at Murrayfield, the coldest I've been for a long, long, time. I think I might be getting too old for this travelling lark. Made a few quid on the game but spent that and a bit more celebrating. Think I'll follow Stevo's recommendation for the England/Italy game and do the half-time points score. Good luck and many thanks all - looking forward to 'Judgement Day' next Saturday and hoping it'll be a bit warmer. Oh, Stevo, we're just outside Motherwell - and it's still cold. Marazan, if I'd known you were up I'd have bought you a pint. Nobber.

[Nobber]

Re: 6 Nations We are pissing ourselves laughing here - Jocks and Taffs alike. Great call Stevo, owe you many pints mate.

[Spankyf]

Re: 6 Nations Superb tips Steve, well done mate. Hope you enjoyed the afters Nobber. Here's hoping for a Scott Gibb's moment next weekend!

[Spankyf]

Re: 6 Nations Italy Ireland I went on quite a tirade last week against Ireland but the bet lost and they dug out a result, or they didn't lose depending how you look at it. Not a lot's changed for me this week. Sexton remains out and the only change is an injured McFadden making way for Gilroy. The back line looks good to be fair, as does the back row. The game last week was the first time I was genuinely impressed by Murray and was annoyed when he was subbed off. The front five is where this match will be won and lost and Irish fans will be hoping they will last the match as the bench is light on 6N experience again. Three changes for Italy with two to injury: the talisman Castrogiovanni misses out but has an able replacement in Cittadini, as does Barbieri with Favaro stepping in (a quality player). The only other change see's Lo Cicero play in what may be (purely speculation on my part) his last 6N home game. Italy ultimately lost last week but I thought they were very good and Walsh screwed them out of a free kick around the 70 minute mark when they had the English pack on the ropes near the line. Parisse's return can't be understated and he'll be out for blood against an Irish team well short of form. Again i'll point to the scrum being key to this game: Italy pushed the English back a few times last week and if the bad luck of injuries continues to haunt the Irish the second half should see the Italians win a few penalty chances. Orquera (despite his kicking I thought he was ok last week) will have his chance to play but for all my doubts about Burton's flair, he's a very good goal kicker. Italy haven't beaten Ireland at home in the 6N but history suggests there more than capable and this is a great chance for them to do it. Italy are well in with a shout here and with form and stats Ireland HT/Italy FT is a great bet but i'll go for the home handicap instead, which I think should be about +4. Italy +6.5 @ 1.885 Pinnacle

[Pie-chucker]

Re: 6 Nations Italy v Ireland A fair, fun punt might be BOD to score last try. Last 6N game? Wales v England Wales haven't conceded a try since first half v Ireland in the first game. England couldn't cross the line v Italy at Twickenham, nor against Ireland in the game before. Wales (to the grumbling of the cognescenti) seemed to have abandoned width and running for a tight, tactical kicking game relying on Halfpenny to boot it over from anywere in the oppo half. This will surely be tight. No try scorer seems top value at 16s. France v Scotland Wouldn't think the misfiring Frogs against a pretty decent Scots side - dangers out wide - will overcome a 12 cap. 2pts O'Driscoll LAST try @ 11-1 3pts NO TRY SCORER in Wales @ 16-1 11 pts Scotland +12 @ 11/10

[Nobber]

Re: 6 Nations Well said Pie Chucker. I was thinking that the Froggies - what with a dodgy No.10 plus PsA's selection policy - might struggle to give Scotland 12 points start and 11/10 looks very fair. Hope you're wrong on the Wales v England game though. I think Wales must go wide if they are to beat an England team who are extremely disciplined (or lucky, whichever way you want to look at it) will use their rolling maul as often as possible and play 10 man rugby with Farrell kicking at every opportunity. Only if they are behind in the final 20 minutes will they try to utilise their backline - but, hopefully, it'll be too late by then. Be nice to see BOD go out with a bang as well. Good luck all. Nobber.

[SteveO]

Re: 6 Nations No time for full analysis this week but I strongly fancy Wales to beat England and Scotland +12. The 11/8 on a Welsh victory has long gone as has the 100/30 about them winning the Championship. Wales have the momentum with three consecutive away victories and the English have looked very average since beating New Zealand and Scotland. Man for man I would say that only Owen Farrell, Manu Tuilagi, Ben Youngs and Geoff Parling could get in to the Welsh starting lineup today with probably Tom Croft who's a specialist 6 and I think that says it all. I also fancy a punt on Justin Tipuric at 16/1 to be man of the match. Sam Warburton won it last week and Ryan Jones was outstanding in France and could easily have won it again in Italy and the battle of the backrows should be immense today with Warren Gatland in attendance. Why France are -12 on the handicap bewilders me. Saint Andre has again opted to play Michalak and if kicking duties are again handed to him instead of Parra then France could struggle to rack up any kind of a decent score. The Scots defenec has been solid since the away defeat to England but will need to be far more disciplined than they were against Wales last week although the referee was harsh to say the least.

[Marazan]

Re: 6 Nations

No time for full analysis this week but I strongly fancy Wales to beat England and Scotland +12. The 11/8 on a Welsh victory has long gone as has the 100/30 about them winning the Championship. Wales have the momentum with three consecutive away victories and the English have looked very average since beating New Zealand and Scotland. Man for man I would say that only Owen Farrell' date=' Manu Tuilagi, Ben Youngs and Geoff Parling could get in to the Welsh starting lineup today with probably Tom Croft who's a specialist 6 and I think that says it all. [b']I also fancy a punt on Justin Tipuric at 16/1 to be man of the match. Sam Warburton won it last week and Ryan Jones was outstanding in France and could easily have won it again in Italy and the battle of the backrows should be immense today with Warren Gatland in attendance. Why France are -12 on the handicap bewilders me. Saint Andre has again opted to play Michalak and if kicking duties are again handed to him instead of Parra then France could struggle to rack up any kind of a decent score. The Scots defenec has been solid since the away defeat to England but will need to be far more disciplined than they were against Wales last week although the referee was harsh to say the least.

I hate making bets on individuals in team sports but fair play, what a call, hope you took a bite at that. Good post all round even without that as well. My only regret of the weekend was laying off my bet on Italy at half-time.

[Nobber]

Re: 6 Nations Echo what Marazan said. What a pick with Tuperic, inspired to say the least SteveO. I've made a few bob following this thread but, more importantly, it is always interesting and a real pleasure to read. Many, many, thanks to all who contributed, for both your time and for sharing your knowledge . Look forward to next year. Good luck boys and Cymru am Byth. Nobber.

[Pobby]

Re: 6 Nations

No time for full analysis this week but I strongly fancy Wales to beat England and Scotland +12. The 11/8 on a Welsh victory has long gone as has the 100/30 about them winning the Championship. Wales have the momentum with three consecutive away victories and the English have looked very average since beating New Zealand and Scotland. Man for man I would say that only Owen Farrell, Manu Tuilagi, Ben Youngs and Geoff Parling could get in to the Welsh starting lineup today with probably Tom Croft who's a specialist 6 and I think that says it all. I also fancy a punt on Justin Tipuric at 16/1 to be man of the match. Sam Warburton won it last week and Ryan Jones was outstanding in France and could easily have won it again in Italy and the battle of the backrows should be immense today with Warren Gatland in attendance. Why France are -12 on the handicap bewilders me. Saint Andre has again opted to play Michalak and if kicking duties are again handed to him instead of Parra then France could struggle to rack up any kind of a decent score. The Scots defenec has been solid since the away defeat to England but will need to be far more disciplined than they were against Wales last week although the referee was harsh to say the least.

I read this on Staurday and it put me off a large bet on the spread whereby I was going to back England. Thanks for that - saved me a good few quid!

[Pobby]

Re: 6 Nations I thoroughly enjoy watching rugby and have done for years, I've been to quite a few matches as well, however, I'm still no nearer to understanding it especially the scrum. Reading the reports after Sunday's game many of the plaudits went to Adam Jones and he's now an apparent shoo in for a Lion's spot. Could someone enlighten me to exactly what he did/how he does it? Obviously the Wales scrum was dominant given the number of penalties England conceded. I don't believe he is just pushing harder that his opposite number although I suppose that helps. Is he getting inside them being smaller?