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Cheltenham Decisions - which race


bowles10
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Been spending today looking through the Cheltenham cards again for the festival Was trying to plot where horses may go as some are in the betting for more than 1 race Here are a couple for discussion, there will be more as the weeks develop Overturn 5/1 Arkle 56.0 Jewson The obvious choice is overturn will tackle the Arkle but with Simonsig being so impressive, owners may prefer the Jewson which is over 4f further but may be easier to win. I would prefer to see it in the Arkle to be honest but would it sidestep? Boston Bob 7/1 RSA 56.0 Jewson Another horse that could go for the Jewson over the main target. Has only raced once this season and struggled to get up on the line over 2m 4f. I wasnt impressed by it last season when i didnt think 3m suited it at the festival and its best form is at 2m 4f. The RSA is the better race obviously but i dont see it going for it? another race will be the Gold cup vs Ryanair, so i will be looking at some of those also

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Re: Cheltenham Decisions - which race I was keen on Captain Conan for the Arkle and would even back it against Simonsig (probably each way) but it probably makes no sense for Henderson to send two horses for that race when he can send one for the Jewson. Captain Conan went from 16's to about 7's but then got pushed out to about 10's and was made favourite for the Jewson. I'd expect Overturn to go the Arkle route as 2m round Cheltenham can feel like further and it ran a fine 2nd in last years Champion Hurdle so it gets up the hill. I am not sure what the difference is in prize money from the Arkle to the Jewson and whether the owners will make the decision or leave that up to the trainer. The Ryanair could turn out to be the race of the festival if they swerve Sprinter Sacre. There is the potential for Flemenstar V Sizing Europe v Riverside Theatre V Finian's Rainbow v Grands Crus and a few others. I would imagine we'll have a clearer idea in the next 2-3 weeks of where horses are heading and that's when to get any ante post money on. Racing UK have been showing last years festival all week but I only caught the last 2 days. Dynaste didn't get 3m over hurdles, faded up the hill but might be a different story over fences. Boston Bob might be a decent bet for the RSA. I'm interested in Cause of Causes because of how it finishes its races and it was finishing well at Cheltenham in horrible muddy boggy ground. Need to know which race it will go for before I get involved financially.

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Re: Cheltenham Decisions - which race Boston Bob is the interesting one for me Phil, it didnt perform here last year when a short favourite and was well turned over by Brindisi Breeze (RIP) and its chase debut this season was hardly inspiring on desperate ground. Really hoping they get Cheltenham on this week as that is a key meeting to have in terms of available races prior to march weather forecast is that it will get better by next weekend but it needs to thaw and not freeze too much

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Re: Cheltenham Decisions - which race Would be surprised if Boston Bob didn't go in the RSA. The Ryanair is a really difficult race but because a few towards the head of affairs may go elsewhere (Flemenstar, Captain Chris to name two) I'm really quite tempted to back Champion Court. If the ground isn't too bad then course and trip is perfect and he's sure to run in the race. Thought he shaped really well in the King George and was only beaten by Sir Des Champs in the Jewson last year (9l clear of For Non Stop). An each-way punt looks really appealing to me for all 10s isn't mindblowingly good.

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Re: Cheltenham Decisions - which race BTR, is there a possibility that Sir des Champs will drop to the Ryanair instead of the Gold Cup. That horse does interest me but not sure it can beat the 1st 3 or 4 in the betting in the Gold Cup. It can always try the Gold Cup next year? On the subject of Boston Bob, i am wondering if i take the bigger price now on Betfair for some interest just in case. Over 50/1 at the moment.

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Re: Cheltenham Decisions - which race

BTR, is there a possibility that Sir des Champs will drop to the Ryanair instead of the Gold Cup. That horse does interest me but not sure it can beat the 1st 3 or 4 in the betting in the Gold Cup. It can always try the Gold Cup next year? On the subject of Boston Bob, i am wondering if i take the bigger price now on Betfair for some interest just in case. Over 50/1 at the moment.
Would be amazed if SDS didn't run in the GC. Has a big chance and proved he had the engine for it in the Lexus. He'll need to jump better to land any race but he probably would win the Ryanair so long as Flemenstar didn't run. Still is a 5/1 chance for the GC and if you have a horse good enough to be that price then I don't think you miss the chance even if he does have age on his side.
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Re: Cheltenham Decisions - which race It's well known they've had the Gold Cup in mind for SDC since it won the handicap hurdle at Cheltenham a couple of years ago. I can remember last year at the Chelteham preview night Gordon Elliott said he'd win at the festival (2012) before going onto win the Gold Cup. SportingBet offered him 66-1 and I've been kicking myself for not taking that ever since. Definitely the horse to take out of the Lexus. Never jumped or travelled like he did at Cheltenham but still right there at the end. I'd be most interested in First Lieutenant dropping back to the Ryanair trip. Outstayed by Bob's Worth in the RSA, outstayed at Newbury in the Hennessey and outstayed in the Lexus. That one beat Rock On Ruby over 2m5f at Cheltenham the year before so would definetely be of interest in the Ryanair. As for Son of Flicka surely he'll have another go at the Coral Cup. And the way he's been campaigned means he'll be only 2lbs higher than last year on the day. Could be the next Buena Vista and 33's looks massive. I love how McCain's had an excuse for this one every race his season on his Betfair blog, going, trip, course, etc, when it's blatantly obvious the horse has just been unfit. He'll be right come Cheltenham and is probably 10lb's well in!

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Been spending today looking through the Cheltenham cards again for the festival Was trying to plot where horses may go as some are in the betting for more than 1 race Here are a couple for discussion, there will be more as the weeks develop Overturn 5/1 Arkle 56.0 Jewson The obvious choice is overturn will tackle the Arkle but with Simonsig being so impressive, owners may prefer the Jewson which is over 4f further but may be easier to win. I would prefer to see it in the Arkle to be honest but would it sidestep?
Any thoughts on overturn ? Also in betting for champion hurdle such is the quality of this horse
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Re: Cheltenham Decisions - which race Court Minstrel. Vincent O'Brien County Handicap Hurdle. 2 points WIN 20/1 Bet365. I'm targetting the County Hurdle (as you may have guessed from my moans about the lack of market for it). I'm also thinking of the Foxhunters and possibly the Grand Annual (which I feel should be higher up the card given that it is the oldest race of the Festival) and the JLT (the Festival Trophy). I considered the Fred Winter and the Byrne Group Plate but not going there at this stage. Admittedly these are some of the smaller races and haven't got as much coverage as the bigger ones. I had a bet turned down for the County Hurdle which actually I'm quite pleased by but managed to get on with 365 at a better price anyway. I'm backing Court Minstrel for the County Hurdle. I initially thought the Supreme Novices but I've re-watched all his races and in any case Evan Williams says its the County Hurdle. Most of his form has come in bumpers and he has got a pretty limp record for a horse that has been targeted at Grade One races with only three runs over hurdles so far. However, he came a good fourth in the Aintree bumper (Grade 2) and looked good when coming from behind with a good pace the third to last time out at Cheltenham and looked good when coming second the next time (in a race won by Dodging Bullets who came third in the Christmas Hurdle. Second place was subsequent winner River Maigue). He obviously gets the hill which is good news. Last time out-Tolworth Hurdle-was disappointing as I backed him that day but a few re-views of the race have suggested that a fair part of his missing third place that time was slight mishandling by Paul Moloney. I can't be sure but he may have whipped a few too many times then as well. It looks like he weakened at the last but I thought at the time it was down to misjudgement and I'm sure that's the right verdict. It was also the first time on heavy ground and he didn't run as smoothly as in previous races. I think he's more suited to handicaps as they're run at a quicker pace and at this stage he looks better suited to the more decent ones although his obvious ability to come from behind could be put under pressure by this strategy, although a good part of that is down to how Moloney has ridden him. Perhaps next year for something like the Fighting Fifth. With that in mind, I think the County Hurdle is a good target- certainly the ground is likely to be less of a worry. Williams says he won't go have another run if he does go to Cheltenham, although I think he could probably have a crack at the Contenders Hurdle and another run would give more of a picture. Court Minstrel is 14/1 with Hills and 12/1 with PP which is absurd at this stage. Looking at it, it seems that PP are really hedging everything in the race so unless they've taken a lot of money they must think its wide open so needs to have as tight a book as possible.

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Re: Cheltenham Decisions - which race The purpose of this thread was to identify horses that could change targets so i suppose Oscar Whisky could now revert to the Champion Hurdle from the World Hurdle? Albeit, Henderson has some decent ones in the Champion already. Will check a few more out, if you find any let me know I cant see Grand Crus going for the Gold Cup now either, would pipe think about the World Hurdle?

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Re: Cheltenham Decisions - which race Agree about Grands Crus. Was shocked to see it being backed before the off, given it's showing in the Paddy Power and at Kempton. It's not showed anything that it stays 3+ miles - especially up the hill. Ryanair could be likely? Same with Oscar Whisky given 3miles stretches its stamina to the absolute limit, wouldn't it be more sensible going for the Champion, and trying to make it a real stamina test with a quickly run race from the front and try and outlast them all up the hill?

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Re: Cheltenham Decisions - which race Oscar Whisky won't go champion hurdle, if he doesn't go world hurdle he'll go straight to Aintree! (barring injuries to Darlan, Binocular or Grandouet) I think after today, Henderson will probably try and convince himself and Dai walters that he stays and run him in the world hurdle!

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Re: Cheltenham Decisions - which race In my opinion, in a truly run world hurdle, Oscar Whisky won't stay. That was run at a crawl yesterday with a sprint at the end in which he was outstayed by a horse that didn't like the ground and felt off according to it's jockey after the race! If Oscar Whisky was my horse i'd be training it for the champion hurdle or taking it straight to Aintree!

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Re: Cheltenham Decisions - which race How good did Pont Alexandre just look?.....Looked a special horse and has been cut for the neptune and Albert Bartlett, now favorite for both! Personally hoping he goes neptune as i backed him for that before the race but the bookies seem to think it could be either race!

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Re: Cheltenham Decisions - which race

How good did Pont Alexandre just look?.....Looked a special horse and has been cut for the neptune and Albert Bartlett, now favorite for both! Personally hoping he goes neptune as i backed him for that before the race but the bookies seem to think it could be either race!
Mullins has said it looks like the Neptune for Pont Alexandre with Ballycasey going for the albert Bartlett! http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/w-p-mullins-r-walsh-cheltenham-festival-leopardstown-pont-alexandre-new-neptune-favourite-after-easy-win/1193811/top/#newsArchiveTabs=last7DaysNews
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Re: Cheltenham Decisions - which race What the hell do they do with Grands Crus now? Is is just a case of it being a non stayer or does it have physical or mental problems? It would be better for racing if this was at the top of its game but it seems regressive. I can't believe this horse beat Bobs Worth and Silviniaco Conti and now seems either in pain or just not enjoying racing, just doesn't seem right does it? I suggested going back over hurdles and going for the World Hurdle as I think it would get 3m over hurdles but maybe not over fences. If they are intent on staying over fences then it would have to be the Ryanair but that could be a very hot race this year.

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Re: Cheltenham Decisions - which race

What the hell do they do with Grands Crus now? Is is just a case of it being a non stayer or does it have physical or mental problems? It would be better for racing if this was at the top of its game but it seems regressive. I can't believe this horse beat Bobs Worth and Silviniaco Conti and now seems either in pain or just not enjoying racing' date=' just doesn't seem right does it? I suggested going back over hurdles and going for the World Hurdle as I think it would get 3m over hurdles but maybe not over fences. If they are intent on staying over fences then it would have to be the Ryanair but that could be a very hot race this year.[/quote'] Its a really strange one. I dont see how he cant stay 3miles over fences if he made Big Bucks pull out all the stops in the World Hurdle. Normally they say that if they stay 3 miles over hurdles then he will stay at least 3 miles over fences. I personally think the horse has some sort of attitude problem and maybe he just doesnt enjoy chasing as much as he did hurdling. Admittedly that wouldn't explain his novice wins, but maybe the injury he picked up before the Festival soured him a little? If I were his connections, I would send him to the World Hurdle again. As you say the Ryanair looks a tough race and I dont think the drop in trip will make any difference so I would turn his attentions to a very open World Hurdle.
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Re: Cheltenham Decisions - which race

Mullins seems to think it might be even better on good ground' date='... Gonna take some horse to beat that![/quote'] If that horse is better on good ground, it is something more than special. I will admit, I had a bet on Our Vinnie today, who beat Rule The World, and also stays 3 miles easily, and goes on soft. On a form line, Pont Alexander is nearly a shoe in. I managed to get a small bet €30 on @ 5/1 with Boyles immediately after tha race, I still think the current 7/2 is very backable. Going by this weekend, The New One won't beat Pont Alexander. Could go off 2/1 or even less this Mullins horse.
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