Primevil Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Less than 3 weeks until "the best" 2 mile hurdle in the NH calendar IMO. I love this race, as you really do have to dig deep to work this one out. Trends say that 5 6 and 7 yo have hit the lions share, with 2 8yo and 1 9 yo winning in the 32 years. I still call it the schwepps, for all us old barstewards. Nicky Henderson targets this race, in numbers, 4 winners and several placed. He without a doubt is the first port of call. I had the pleasure of seeing "make a stand" bully his rivals into submission in 1997 under Chris Maude(11-06), on his way to Champion hurdle success the same year, what a tank he was. The winner has to be close to champion hurdle class, or completely missed by the handicapper. Celestial Halo is top weight on 161, he may be there as a decoy for the weights. The top few in the betting My Tent or yours 9/2 Pearl swan 10/1 Cause of Causes 12/1 Cash and Go 12/1 Cotton Mill 14/1 Swing Bowler 14/1 16/1 Bar Lets have your thoughts on this great race...Mine later. TY Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lodge Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Re: RACE IN FOCUS - The BETFAIR Hurdle(schwepps, tote trophy) 9th Feb 2013 I'm a big Pearl Swan fan - not sure whether i'll be backing it though. The fact it hasnt run since falling at Cheltenham last year is the concern but i quite fancy it to go well in this and then the champion hurdle. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Primevil Posted January 20, 2013 Author Share Posted January 20, 2013 Re: RACE IN FOCUS - The BETFAIR Hurdle(schwepps, tote trophy) 9th Feb 2013 Nicky Henderson has 10 entries of the 69 that currently stand their ground...He will have something well handicapped. My Tent or Yours, noticable 7/2 with Ladbrokes, given the connection between the owners and the firm. Does he deserve a rating of 149, or has the handicapper been fooled? He could be a 165 horse running of a ridiculous handicap mark. The milkshake man has done it before. Geos 139 year 2000(15/2 from 20/1 in the week before)..won by 10, then running in all the top grade 1 races.:loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mowgli77 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Re: RACE IN FOCUS - The Betfair Hurdle (Schweppes, Tote trophy) Newbury 9th Feb 2013 I backed Pearl Swan when it fell late on at Cheltenham and felt that was a great effort as it had been scrubbed along and given reminders early on and was then there with a wet sail when tumbling. I backed it just after that race for this years Champion Hurdle at 59-1 on Betfair (just for a fiver) but it is bigger odds now I think. I wondered where it had got to, don't think it has had an outing this season has it? It is currently rated 146 and for me would have probably made the first 4 if it hadn't fallen. The 1st and 4th from that race are now 155 and 156 so there is the potential that it is quite well handicapped off 146. Will have a closer look nearer the race. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lodge Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 I backed Pearl Swan when it fell late on at Cheltenham and felt that was a great effort as it had been scrubbed along and given reminders early on and was then there with a wet sail when tumbling. I backed it just after that race for this years Champion Hurdle at 59-1 on Betfair (just for a fiver) but it is bigger odds now I think. I wondered where it had got to' date=' don't think it has had an outing this season has it? It is currently rated 146 and for me would have probably made the first 4 if it hadn't fallen. The 1st and 4th from that race are now 155 and 156 so there is the potential that it is quite well handicapped off 146. Will have a closer look nearer the race. :ok[/quote'] I was on him too that day, and in my mind he would have definitely been in the 1st 3. Think he's about 65.0 on betfair at the moment and I have a little bit on at 75 - infact it's one of the only Cheltenham anti post bets I've had so far. Hope he wins in a couple of weeks time and and I'll probably look to lay it off as its such a competitive race. There's no doubting he could be very well handicapped though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Primevil Posted January 30, 2013 Author Share Posted January 30, 2013 Re: RACE IN FOCUS - The Betfair Hurdle (Schweppes, Tote trophy) Newbury 9th Feb 2013 With only 10 days until this big race, I have it now down to 6. Will go thru them again, to try and narrow down further. And put some detail to my final selection(s) The 6 for me are. Cash and Go 12/1 Cotton Mill 11/1 Grumeti 20/1 Its a Gimme 33/1 My tent or Yours 9/2 Ronaldo des Mottes 10/1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 It's a good list primeval but a very competitive event Will take a look through the weekend Worth following the first 4 or 5 through the season also Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Primevil Posted February 3, 2013 Author Share Posted February 3, 2013 Re: RACE IN FOCUS - The Betfair Hurdle (Schweppes, Tote trophy) Newbury 9th Feb 2013 I am waiting for the decs to come out, we should be down to around 45 entries come tomorrow. One thing for sure the word "good" wont appear in the going come saturday. Soft and Heavy will be the two words used, a pretty dry week forcast until thursday n friday were they will have alot of rain. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Primevil Posted February 4, 2013 Author Share Posted February 4, 2013 Re: RACE IN FOCUS - The Betfair Hurdle (Schweppes, Tote trophy) Newbury 9th Feb 2013 33 left in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Primevil Posted February 4, 2013 Author Share Posted February 4, 2013 Re: RACE IN FOCUS - The Betfair Hurdle (Schweppes, Tote trophy) Newbury 9th Feb 2013 Ive got down to one in this very competitive handicap. Off 146 Pearl Swan really does take the eye, He has serious potential to become a 160+ hurdler, He had a run on the flat the other day which will have put him spot on, and the ground will be right up his street. He is going to appreciate what will be a decent pace in here, and his stamina should come into play over the last two flights. 5 points e/w Pearl Swan 10/1 bet365 ladbrokes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewPunter Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Re: RACE IN FOCUS - The Betfair Hurdle (Schweppes, Tote trophy) Newbury 9th Feb 2013 Cotton Mill and Court Minstrel leap out of the entries to me but not sure if either will run Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beaker1 Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Re: RACE IN FOCUS - The Betfair Hurdle (Schweppes, Tote trophy) Newbury 9th Feb 2013 cotton mill is running saturday the trainer is saying on the sporting life Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Straight from the Curragh Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Re: RACE IN FOCUS - The Betfair Hurdle (Schweppes, Tote trophy) Newbury 9th Feb 2013 The word on the kildare jump scene is, been onto the girl in charge of ' My Tent or Yours'.. they will use this ,as a stepping stone..is in very good form at home.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Primevil Posted February 4, 2013 Author Share Posted February 4, 2013 Re: RACE IN FOCUS - The Betfair Hurdle (Schweppes, Tote trophy) Newbury 9th Feb 2013 The word on the kildare jump scene is' date=' been onto the girl in charge of ' My Tent or Yours'.. they will use this ,as a stepping stone..is in very good form at home..[/quote'] Could be thrown in, but far to short for a very very very competitive hurdle. Inexperience of 20 odd horses around him going helter skelter..Not for me m8. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stakes n chips Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Re: RACE IN FOCUS - The Betfair Hurdle (Schweppes, Tote trophy) Newbury 9th Feb 2013 I couldnt make a final selection on this race until i feel sure about the ground conditions. If its heavy ground Cause of Causes and Midnight Game stand out to me for the win and perhaps one or two at bigger prices to place. Any hint of good in the ground and Ingelby Spirit comes into the equation for me (due to the weights id prefer to back him rather than swing bowler). If good to soft id also back Claret Cloak. I think the current favorite wants soft ground but likewise is too short a price for me to be interested in given there may not be much between a big stack of them. My apologies for not helping in terms of narrowing down the selections. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beaker1 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Re: RACE IN FOCUS - The Betfair Hurdle (Schweppes, Tote trophy) Newbury 9th Feb 2013 regarding the going and the weather i find this is an accurate site for the going http://www.weathercommerce.net/racing/index.aspx Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Re: RACE IN FOCUS - The Betfair Hurdle (Schweppes, Tote trophy) Newbury 9th Feb 2013 >Betfair hurdle @ Newbury 3.35 Saturday I have analysed the stats: Favs 2/14 5-7yo 13/14 Weight between 10st 9lb & 11st 7lb 8/14 Leops or Chelt LTO 7/14 Jan LTO 8/14 Nov or Jan LTO 11/14 SP 16/1 or under 13/14 Won no further than 19f 13/14 Grade win 2/14 Course win 2/14 Debut on course 10/14 2+ career hurdle wins 14/14 LTO 1st or 2nd 10/14 LTO 1st 7/14 Wins / runs 25% + 12/14 Just looking at stats alone, these seem to be key: 5-7yo won no further than 19f 2+ career hurdle wins SP 16/1 or under wins / runs 25%+ this removes Petit Robin, Dark LOver, Punjabi, Ronaldo des mottes, The Betchworth kid, Manyriverstocross, Caid du berlais, Pearl Swan, Cotton Mill, Princeton Plains, Village >Vic, Ingleby spirit, First in the queue, Lyvius, BAby Mix, Into Wain, Home run that removes 17 from the 23 declared to date leaving a smaller field to deal with of just 6 Course winners dont appear to do well either with only 2 in last 14 winners having won here previously Claret Cloak is the CD winner left in my 6. ok time for some more analysis, 2012 Zarkandar, 3 wins, 2 flat tracks Aintree and Kempton 2011 Recession proof 3 wins, 2 flat tracks Southwell and Lingfield 2010 Get me out of here 3 wins, 2 flat tracks Ffos las and Newbury 2009 no race 2008 wingman 2 wins, 1 flat track sand 2007 heathcote 3 wins, 1 flat track ling 2005 Essex 3 wins, 1 flat track leops 2004 Geos 5 wins 3 flat tracks 2003 Spirit Leader 2 wins, 1 flat track sand 2002 Copeland 3 wins 2 flat tracks sand 2001 Landing Light 1 win 1 flat track winc 2000 Geos 1 win 1 flat track leics 1999 Decoupage 3 wins, 1 flat track Ayr 1998 Sharpical 2 wins, 1 flat track, Folks so in last 13 runnings, all 13 had a previous win on a flat track, and the winners had between 1 & 5 NH wins, although 12/13 had 1-3 wins. from the horses i had left from the previous omissions i made, CAuse of CAuses 5 wins, 1 flat track win My tent or yours 3 wins, 1 flat track win Cash & go 5 wins, 1 flat track win Claret Cloak 3 wins, 2 flat tracks Swing Bowler 5 wins, 2 flat tracks Court Minstrel 3 wins, no flat tracks Remove Court Minstrel, CAsh & go, Cause of Causes and Swing bowler leaves 2 My Tent or yours Claret Cloak My Tent or yours - 11st 2lb - has had a couple of reverses when coming 2nd and would be an emotional winner for mcManus/Henderson/McCoy. Looks certain to start favourite. Claret Cloak - 10st 3lb - form looks ok and could improve again however is a course winner. Bets My Tent or Yours Claret Cloak Prices to come... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Primevil Posted February 8, 2013 Author Share Posted February 8, 2013 Re: RACE IN FOCUS - The Betfair Hurdle (Schweppes, Tote trophy) Newbury 9th Feb 2013 Soft - Good - Soft in the odd place, Dry Friday Night, But a word of warning, from about Noon onwards, Sleet n Heavy Rain due to come in, lasting a few hours...If thats right, it may be Heavy by the time this is run!. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Primevil Posted February 9, 2013 Author Share Posted February 9, 2013 Re: RACE IN FOCUS - The Betfair Hurdle (Schweppes, Tote trophy) Newbury 9th Feb 2013 Rain falling steadaly for the last hour , still going.... This could have a big change in official call, after the first 1 or 2...Beware guys, this could turn out to be heavy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tedthewolf Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Re: RACE IN FOCUS - The Betfair Hurdle (Schweppes, Tote trophy) Newbury 9th Feb 2013 Is it just me :unsure but 80/1 on Th Betchworh Kid looks a ridiculous price esp if it comes really heavy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bathtime For Rupert Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Re: RACE IN FOCUS - The Betfair Hurdle (Schweppes, Tote trophy) Newbury 9th Feb 2013 3.35 Newbury - 1pt win Pearl Swan @ 10/1 (Ladbrokes) Obviously this is a minefield really and finding the winner is tough (even siding with My Tent Or Yours couldn't be done with any real conviction imo, for all he may win). If you can find a horse who should relish conditions and also could be off a good mark then you're in with a shot and I'm hopeful the lightly-raced Pearl Swan can be just that horse this afternoon. He was finishing well in the Triumph Hurdle when coming to grief at the last and on that evidence a strongly-run race like this with a sizable straight is ideal. He won his other two races over hurdles (including beating Grumeti - albeit losing the race in the steward's room). The Triumph form looks strong and on that evidence he could be well-treated off 146. He never really went at Cheltenham but was in the process of running fairly close. 155, 153 and 156 are the ratings of three of the first four home that day and you'd be hopeful that the breathing operation and the more testing ground could suit this strong-finisher. He ran a very creditable 2nd in a jumpers bumper to warm him up for this and Paul Nicholls stated he was thrilled with that as it was his first real gallop of the season (has improved plenty at home since). Represents top connections and I think he could have a big part to play. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smarty72 Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Re: RACE IN FOCUS - The BETFAIR Hurdle(schwepps, tote trophy) 9th Feb 2013 Nicky Henderson has 10 entries of the 69 that currently stand their ground...He will have something well handicapped. My Tent or Yours, noticable 7/2 with Ladbrokes, given the connection between the owners and the firm. Does he deserve a rating of 149, or has the handicapper been fooled? He could be a 165 horse running of a ridiculous handicap mark. The milkshake man has done it before. Geos 139 year 2000(15/2 from 20/1 in the week before)..won by 10, then running in all the top grade 1 races.:loon Think you called that spot on Primevil! Probably right about the rating and looks destined for top races from now on! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpo Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Re: RACE IN FOCUS - The Betfair Hurdle (Schweppes, Tote trophy) Newbury 9th Feb 2013 How good was My Tent or Yours! Massively impressed with that run but I don't think I would back him for the Supreme. McCoy has a habit of getting beat in the Supreme with very decent horses. He has been beaten on Darlan, Sprinter Sacre, and Binocular to name a few plus he is far too short now at 2/1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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