UFC on FX 7

[Keyskills]

First post here, had a fair bit of success on the UFC in the past, recently winning a 76/1 shot so thought I'd share my views on this card, which does seem pretty tough to call, and there's a big opportunity for a few upsets tonight. I'll look through each fight with finally the bets I have put on. Trinaldo (11-2-0) Versus CJ Keith (8-1-0) For this fight I really can't look past Trinaldo and the odds reflect this as what I see as a poor matchup for CJ Keith. Trinaldo is an absolute beast for this weight class and judging by CJ Keith's first performance in the UFC which was a KO/TKO loss to Ramsey Nijem, who is miles from the standard of Trinaldo's striking and power, I can't see this lasting very long, more than likely Trinaldo within the first round by KO. The only problem is, Trinaldo tends to run out of gas pretty quickly, so if this does go beyond the first round and into the 2nd/3rd round then CJ Keith might have some luck and be able to win a decision purely down to having the better cardio, although he will struggle to survive against someone with such power as Trinaldo IMO. Prado (8-1-0) Versus Alcantara (17-5-0) Alcantara has taken this fight on short notice and Prado, and it does seem like the UFC have set this up for an easy win for Prado to get his first UFC win after being smothered by Phil Davis in his debut fight (which I think was a co-main event), so he clearly needs this win as he opens in at the 2nd fight of the night, which suggests another loss and we might not see him fight in the UFC until he can get another streak of wins under his belt. Alcantara (26-4-0) Versus Nobre (14-1-2) Yes there are 2 Alcantara's on this card, and although I have gone for the first one to lose, I do think his brother will win this one, and pretty comfortably. Barboza (10-1-0) Vesus Martins (11-0-0) Barboza is coming off a shock KO loss to Jamie Varner, but I think this will definitely spur him on to get back on track to winning ways, I believe Barboza will be too much for Martins to handle, and just hope he isn't going to be timid and have his last fight in the back of his head and worried to go forwards and attack, I'm sure he'll be pumped for this fight and should comfortably take this. Nunes (18-3-0) Versus Lentz (24-5-2) I do think this is one of the tougher fights to call, and should be a great fight to watch. Lentz can be a dangerous guy but Nunes is prolific for his fights going the distance, and he has a good record with the judges. Also, with this fight being in his hometown of Brazil, I think in a close fight, if it goes to decision, he will win on the judges scorecards. Brazil is known for crazy judge decisions, especially in favour of the Brazilians. I remember a fight recently where the Brazilian fighter easily lost all 3 rounds and yet one judge still gave him a 30-27 win. So, if this is a tight fight (which i expect it to be), that goes the distance, I can't see past Nunes taking the decision victory, even if Lentz edges it, the judges will probably hand the win to Nunes. Ronny Markes (13-1-0) Versus Andrew Craig (8-0-0) Andrew Craig is coming off one of the greatest comebacks in UFC history. He was dominated in the first round, and the majority of the second, until he connected with a highlight reel head kick KO out of nowhere, he is very lucky to still hold that undefeated record, and I am really looking forward to seeing him fight again. However, he's REALLY going to struggle against an explosive fighter like Ronny Markes, who will definitely look to take him down as quick as possible and grind out a decision victory. Although as Craig has proven, his striking is very dangerous and it only takes one hit and the fight could be over, the only problem is, his takedown defence is going to have to be great and he'll need to keep his distance to keep the fight standing, if he can do this then I wouldn't be surprised to see him win, and it would be worth an outside shot with a single on Andrew Craig at odds of around 13/5 currently. However, from past fights, he has been taken down quite frequently and I do think this will be the way Ronny Markes goes about the fight, and I expect him to smother Craig to an easy decision victory. Godofredo Pepey (9-1-0) Versus Milton Viera (13-7-2) Pepey did look good on TUF Brazil, however in the finale against Rony Jason, he didn't look too great, and lost to unanimous decision. Both fighters do rely on their BJJ in fights, as neither are great standing and I do believe Viera is the better grappler of the two. Pepey will spend most of the fight on his back and I believe Viera's experience will give him positional dominance throughout the fight and he'll win by unanimous decision. Thiago Tavares (21-4-1) Versus Khabib Nurmagomendov (18-0-0) This is an interesting fight, and i've been looking forward to seeing Khabib fight again, and he is one crazy fighter. I think Khabib will dominate the fight with just his pure craziness in attacks, it doesn't look pretty, but it does the job. I believe he'll just be too much for Tavarez to handle, and he has recently changed his training camps which can only help the young Russian improve more. I'd like to see him fight a bit more technically, as he has great potential. But then again, if Tavarez can cope with the pace and power of Khabib (his chin hasn't held up too great in the past), I wouldn't be surprised if he did take a decision victory purely down to how wild Khabib can be, which i'm sure will be the cause of his first loss in the UFC, as a more technical fighter will look to land punches and score more effectively than how Khabib fights. Still, it'll be interesting to see if Khabib's fighting style has changed, and if it has, it'll only be improved from his last fight. I'm not ruling out a Tavarez win, but I just think Khabib will be too much and likely to take a KO/TKO victory, or it could be a very tough fight to call if it goes the distance. Ben Rothwell (32-8-0) Versus Gabriel Gonzago (13-6-0) This is one of the tougher fights to call, Ben Rothwell could easily take the KO victory here as Gonzago's chin isn't the best, however, Rothwell has had an injury during his training up to this fight and it looks to have affected him at the weigh ins, he looked in great shape for his last fight, but definitely doesn't look anyway near as good for this fight. On that basis alone, if Gonzago does fight smart, I believe Rothwell won't have the gas to last the 3 rounds and Gonzago can take advantage of that and grind out the win. But like I said, tough fight to call, you never know which Rothwell will show up on the day, and exactly how good/bad his training regime went. Daniel Sarafian (8-2-0) Versus CB Dolloway (13-5-0) I believe this fight has been set up as a test for Sarafian to pass, I think Sarafian will just be too much for CB Dolloway to cope with and will finish this fight pretty quickly, he tends to like to submit guys when he has them hurt rather than finishing them off by KO/TKO. So tough to call how this fight will finish, but I definitely think there will be a finish, and Sarafian will walk away a comfortable winner. Vitor Belfort (21-10-0) Versus Michael Bisping (24-4-0) As the odds suggest, this is a tough fight to call. I really won't be surprised if Belfort comes out throwing everything he has in the early rounds, and it'll be down to Bisping to close the distance and fight smart for the early stages of the fight. With it being in Brazil, I do think this is how Belfort will take the fight, and he'll look for an early finish, if Bisping can hold on, I'm sure it'll be a case of Belfort fading away and gassing himself. For that reason, I am actually going for Bisping to take this fight, although it honestly won't surprise me to see a Belfort KO in either round 1 or 2. However, Bisping has been told he gets a title shot if he wins this fight, and I believe he is a really smart fighter and will know exactly what to do to win this, whether he gets a late stoppage due to overwhelming a gassed Belfort who isn't able to defend himself, or grind out a Unanimous Decision victory. This is all down to if Bisping can close the distance, fight smart early on, and ensure he DOESN'T get tagged, otherwise it'll be an early KO win for Belfort. Now I've done that, onto my specific bets that I have picked out. My ''safe'' accumulator is: Francisco Trinaldo Wagner Prado Yuri Alcantara Edson Barboza To increase the odds a little bit, I have another with Sarafian and Viera added to the bet. Another outside shot I have gone for is that ''safe'' bet plus: Sarafian to win in the first round Khabib Nurmagomendov by KO/TKO Belfort/Bisping fight to end by KO/TKO This is an outside bet for obvious reasons, but you can get EVENS money on the main event to end via KO/TKO which if Belfort is to win, the way I believe he will win the fight, and I don't see Bisping being able to KO Belfort, but if this fight does see the later rounds, I believe Bisping may be able to get the TKO victory from a gassed Belfort being unable to defend himself. Finally, I always like to stick £1 on an accumulator of all the fights, where I'll always stick in a few surprise results in just to get better odds, mainly for entertainment purposes. Note: I don't expect this to win, realistically I'd expect to get around 7/11 of these correct. Trinaldo Prado Alcantara Barboza Nunes Craig Viera Nurmagomendov Gonzago Sarafian Bisping This card is full of fighters stepping in on short notice, and many fighters that lack UFC experience so it's always tough to call how a fighter will fight under the pressure of the UFC, these bets for this card are more interest bets and the only one I am really confident with is the ''safe'' bet, but that doesn't give the greatest odds which is why i've added a few more bets with different outcomes to increase the returns. Fingers crossed this'll be an entertaining event, and it's always a bonus if any of my bets come in :D

[andyfmfb]

Welcome to PL and good luck :hope

[Keyskills]

Re: UFC on FX 7 Prado's awful submission defense cost him what was a fight he had controlled, gone for a new bet with Alcantara, Barboza, Markes and Viera :hope

[Keyskills]

Re: UFC on FX 7 HORRIBLE split decision cost me in that last leg of the bet, Viera definitely won 2 rounds to 1, very unlucky. Main Card Singles: Khabib Nurmagomedov by KO/TKO @ 5/1 Sarafian inside the distance @ 6/5 Main event to end by KO/TKO @ evens

[Keyskills]

Re: UFC on FX 7

HORRIBLE split decision cost me in that last leg of the bet, Viera definitely won 2 rounds to 1, very unlucky. Main Card Singles: Khabib Nurmagomedov by KO/TKO @ 5/1 Sarafian inside the distance @ 6/5 Main event to end by KO/TKO @ evens

A poor decision from Prado cost me and a poor judge decision in the Viera fight costing another accumulator, didn't think it was going to be my night, but saved it with 2/3 singles right in the main card at odds of 5/1 and evens. Much more confident with picking fights for the next couple of cards coming up, was always going to be a few dodgy decisions on this card.

[Aofshamrock]

Re: UFC on FX 7 nice thread man enjoy your views and seem to have an above average knowledge of ufc...............keep them coming.:)