Cycling 2013

[Leadbelly]

First race of the year is soon, so I guess we better have a new thread. Just going to quote ogii55's post from two years ago as it contains some useful sites for checking news, form and parcours etc. ​

Here will try to put some interesting info for all cycling punters that would help in the selections during the year! The bigger info stream: www.cyclingnews.com Here you may receive all the laters news and comments every day with some very nice buletins. Also Cyclingnews is keeping archive of all the tours during UCI calendar. They are putting live ticker for bigger races, as well as start lists, previews, maps, fast full results for H2H players as me. Very useful forum also, where you may discus the current races or future ones. Cycling's mania: www.cyclingfever.com The page is made very well. Here you may follow very easy every single race of the UCI calendar. They put sometimes nice previews. You have team lists and they put stats on the competitors how they made in the previous editions of the current race. Very useful info IMO. Cyclists season profile: http://www.nieuwsblad.be/sportwereld/wielrennen It's a Belgian news page with a lot of actual news and reports. Very useful for competitions in Belgium with many interviews with participants/managers. The most useful part is the profile of every cyclist from the current season. It shows easely where they finished in every competition that took part. Just you may click on "Alle Renners" and to find the cyclist by his name or the name of his team. Cycling's racing post: www.cyclingarchives.com The place, where you may see entire career of every cyclist. Very useful when you comparing or making studies for some competition. Cycling's streams: www.cyclingfans.com This is the place where they collect the most of the video and audio streams around the world that shows cycling. A lot of other useful info as fast results, presentation of future races, photos etc. Cycling's maniacs: www.steephill.tv Very nice page with easy to manage menus. Gives great info for all current and future races. Cool Maps, live tickers - even for races that aren't showed nowhere, you may get some live updates via tweeter zone. Bookies compare: www.oddschecker.com Usual for all other sports. Sometimes didn't check all head to heads around, but however still very nice if you want to get the best price, without goint here or there. Bookies who loves cycling: Paddy power often put earlier odds, comparing to others. Their bookies section are fast enought. If oyu are a Top 3 player, who may use Unibet, Bet24 or Centrebet. From them Unibet gives the best place odds. Bet 365, Paddy, Unibet, Centrebet, Sportingbet, Bet24, WH are putting H2H, with bet365 has the richest market. Pinnacle are mostly the last, who put their odds, but their juice are the best around. Also the market of H2H propositions is rich as bet365. Betfair markets are useful just for big competitions, because there aren't strong trades for smaller. Pinnaclesports gives the best limmits for H2H. In the smallest competition they put a max of around E250 per bet, without changing line. Sometimes it reaches 500. For Grand Tours or World championships you may bet even on E1000 per H2H. Skybet, Ladbrokes, Expekt also put sometimes odds, but they love stronger and TV supported races. This is the basic you need to start geting into cycling world of betting :)

[Leadbelly]

Re: Cycling 2013 The TDU starts on Tuesday morning at some ungodly hour. Here's a

and there are links on that page to the other five. Similar to last year the ascent of Old Willunga on stage 5 will play an important part, but stage 2 will also have an effect on the overall - an ascent of Corkscrew Road (some steep ramps) followed by a quick descent to the finish. Also, like last year, time bonuses will no doubt play a part, so look for punchy guys with sprints. Obviously form is a bit of an unknown at the this time of year and I'm not sure if the weather in Adelaide is similar to what they're getting in Sydney, but I'm sticking with very small stakes for both of those possible reasons. I like the look of the price for Velits (34 ew with Bet365). A climber but he's got a good kick on him. He got third last year in a stage in the TdF on a punchy finish (only beaten by EBH and Sagan) and he also showed some good early season form last year in winning the Tour of Oman (including second place on Green Mountain just behind Nibali). Also a couple of outsider picks. McCarthy (151 ew with Bet365) - I've read him descibed as being similar to Albasini. He didn't do so well in the Jayco Sun Herald Tour, but he finished 6th in the Aussie RR Championships the other day so he might be coming into some form. Got a decent kick and might pick up some time bonuses from a reduced group. Wellens (151 ew with Bet365) is another talented youngster. Did well in the Tour de l'Avenir last year, and when given the chance at the end of the season in China he managed to bag a top ten in the Tour of Beijing. Let's hope he's given a chance to challenge for the GC and doesn't have to work for the Gorilla.

[Leadbelly]

Re: Cycling 2013 Bit of a shame that Wellens was a victim of the heat, a top ten might have been on for him. Onto the Tour of Qatar. First stage is on Sunday and this year there's no Tommeke to defend his title. Don't have the foggiest what's happening as regards the weather, but it wouldn't be the biggest surprise for wind to play a part in deciding the GC. The TTT could play a part, but the gaps made there aren't likely to be that big - maybe 10-20 secs. Winner is likely to be a sprinter (bonus seconds), or a strong classics type guy with a bit of a kick. First pick is Breschel (101 ew with Bet365). This is a really nice price I feel. It's his first race of the year, but he's left Rabo over the winter and is back with Riis at Saxo where he had much success in the past. He could lose 15-20 secs in the TT, but if he's got his race legs he could do well if the race starts breaking up on a windy day. Could pick up bonus seconds from a reduced group. Secondly Offredo (201 ew with Bet365). Missed nearly almost all of last year due to a suspension, but one of the races he did compete in was this one, and I remember him finishing very strongly in one of the deciding stages. Was a shame he missed last year, as in the previous years before that he had shown some real promise with some good results in the big classic races. Again might lose a bit in the TTT. In fact, although it's too late for me as I've made the bets, if you are following them it might be better to wait till after the TTT as you might get better odds.

[Leadbelly]

Re: Cycling 2013 Wasn't planning on having any bets on the Tour of Oman as there's no live coverage (you even have to wait till the next day for highlights), but I couldn't resist this bet for stage 2. Phinney (41 ew with Bet365) is looking very strong already this season (OT: he'll be challenging Martin very seriously this year). Not just in terms of his TT which has always been his strong point, but suddenly he's contesting sprints (an 8th and 5th in Qatar where he was mainly leading out Blythe, but also a 6th today where he was just working for himself). The sticking point might the short climb about 5 km from the finish, but I think it's the same climb they used in the TT a couple of years ago - I think as a TTer he should be able to power up it (or at least not lose much and be able to TT back to the group before the finish) and hopefully some of the sprinters will be left behind

[Leadbelly]

Re: Cycling 2013 Memo to self - Phinney isn't quite light/good enough to get over those steeper bumps just yet. Been some great racing in Oman, just wish we could have seen it live instead of reading about it on twitter. Volta ao Algarve is also on at the moment and tomorrow's stage looks quite tasty. The finish is the same as the stage last year where Richie Porte won (though the rest of the stage is slightly different) - very rolling countryside and the finish is on Malhao. Quite a few candidates for the the win - several Sky riders, a couple of Portuguese and a couple of Dutchies. Westra (67 ew with Bet365) is the name and price that jumps out to me. He's got previous on finishes similar to this (see PN last year on Mende), got a good kick and has a couple of races already this year under the belt. The price is too big to resist. Martin, Kloden and Menchov (you could even maybe stick De Gendt in there) are all shorter odds which is just craziness.

[Leadbelly]

Re: Cycling 2013

Been some great racing in Oman, just wish we could have seen it live instead of reading about it on twitter. Volta ao Algarve is also on at the moment and tomorrow's stage looks quite tasty. The finish is the same as the stage last year where Richie Porte won (though the rest of the stage is slightly different) - very rolling countryside and the finish is on Malhao. Quite a few candidates for the the win - several Sky riders, a couple of Portuguese and a couple of Dutchies. Westra (67 ew with Bet365) is the name and price that jumps out to me. He's got previous on finishes similar to this (see PN last year on Mende), got a good kick and has a couple of races already this year under the belt. The price is too big to resist. Martin, Kloden and Menchov (you could even maybe stick De Gendt in there) are all shorter odds which is just craziness.

First profit of the season (though I was half expecting to get a message from Bet365 saying the bet was void due to some error - the price had come in from 67 last night to 17 this morning when I checked). Just saw the highlights, and a very strong third place for Westra. Looked very comfortable sitting in the main grp of favourites (Henao, Rui Costa and Machado had gone up the road a little) and then attacked very strongly within the last km (just like on Mende) to nab third.

[Papa Lazarou]

Re: Cycling 2013 Great call LB.:clap Can't believe the 66-1 but sadly didn't see your post in time. Re Het Nieuwsblad - I was wondering who you think are looking good this year? I like the look of young Boasson Hagen or even Geraint Thomas as Sky are hoping to bag some classics.

[Leadbelly]

Re: Cycling 2013

Re Het Nieuwsblad - I was wondering who you think are looking good this year?

I'll tell you after I've made my bets later in the week. :p But seriously, I was looking at the starters (though the list isn't confirmed yet) on cyclingfever and there are lots of guys looking in good form or look to be coming into good form. The four that are down so far for OPQS could all win it (though Tommeke will want the win - it's one he's never had), there's three or four names at Blanco that jump out, four at BMC, a few at Sky as you mention and there's other random guys that you could add to that list - Pozatto, Haussler, Flecha. If you then add in the guys then that maybe haven't shown the form yet, but who you know have performed in races like this before - then the list is getting 20+ strong. As always it will depend on the price.

[Leadbelly]

Re: Cycling 2013 Prices are up for Omloop-Het Nieuwsblad and there are a lot of potential winners. Unfortunately there's not too many prices that jump out, but maybe some will drift out before the book closes on Saturday morning. I will have a couple of bets though on a pair of guys in decent shape. Stybar (41 ew with Bet365) has had a great season so far. 12th overall in both Qatar and Oman (in particular in Oman he was very impressive on the hilly parcour, could have finished higher if not for having to wait for Velits on Green Mountain). Normally his price would have been much shorter in this sort of form, but he rides for OPQS who have Terpstra, Chavanel and Boonen (who is talking down his own chances) so he might be forced to do some donkey work later on in the race - which would be a shame. Got a very good kick and hopefully his CX background will put in him good stead for the weather conditions that are forecast (very cold and windy). Kristoff (101 ew with Bet365) has had a similarly decent start to the year with 5 top ten spots already. He's still pretty young, but he's a decent semi-classics sort of guy on top of being a 2nd/3rd tier sprinter - 15th at RVV last year, 3rd at the Olympics, good performance at Three Days of De Panne. Should have the support of his team, only other rider who might contend is Paolini and he doesn't seem to be in much shape. Looking forward to this - the more hellish the conditions, the better!

[Leadbelly]

Re: Cycling 2013 Right teams, wrong riders and I even dismissed Paolini - doh! Wasn't that exciting unfortunately the race. It wasn't helped by Sporza geo-restricting their stream. Cycling coverage seems a bit cursed so far this year. Hopefully that will change this coming weekend and next week. Strade Bianchi is this Saturday. Fingers crossed it should be on Eurosport and it should be a good race. Lots of big names including the unstoppable Sagan, but a 2nd or 3rd might be up for grabs. I'm having a small bet on Nordhaug (81 ew with Bet365). He's coming back from a small injury, but he showed ok in the Haut Var (finished 14 secs back in the GC). His mountain biking background should help on the gravel roads and he's got a good punch for the nasty kick at the end in Siena. Slagter looks like being Blanco's main man, but Nordhaug with his extra classics experience could do very well here. Paris-Nice starts then on Sunday. No "big" names riding, they're mainly all going to be riding TA next week, so it's a rather open field. In terms of the GC only stages 5 and 7 will probably play a part. Stage 5 finishes on a 13.8 km climb at 6.6% and stage 7 is the same as last year with a TT up Col d'Eze. I'm going with Quintana (10 ew with Bet365). I'm not usually one for backing at such short prices but imo he's head and shoulders ahead of anyone else here in climbing ability (we saw that last year at the Vuelta and the Dauphine), he's in good form - despite having to help Valverde at Murcia and Ruta del Sol he still finished 11th and 7th in the two races. His weakness might be the TT, but because it's an uphill TT any time lost shouldn't be that big.

[SnakeBg]

Re: Cycling 2013 Giro starts tomorrow.. any thoughts ?

[mrnice]

Re: Cycling 2013 Get on the "riders in pink" bets. Many punters don't realise that the rules for the Giro are different to the Tour de France. The defending champion wears the pink jersey in the opening stage. So far we have had 6 jersey wearers, (Hesjedal, Cavendish, Puccio, Paolini, Intxausti, Nibali). Many punters are thinking 5. It is skewing the betting.

[mrnice]

Re: Cycling 2013 That was an excellent tip I gave above. If you had followed it, you would have made several hundred pounds.

[antogz]

Re: Cycling 2013 The Worlds are on tomorrow on BBC. Of the 3 main favourites I think Sagan is the value, I can't see Cancellara shaking him off. Some of the other big names are very tasty prices, Rodriguez is 25/1 and he looks to be very strong at the moment, those short sharp climbs should suit him perfectly. I think Dan Martin has a great chance as well at 28/1, he won LBL which is a similar profile to this. Of the outsiders Van Avermaet 80/1 and Kwiatkowski 150/1 are overpriced. The course and long distance will suit them.