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CzechPunter

Australian Open 2013

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Re: Australian Open 2013 I don't think there is a thread for the other tournaments... so I'm posting one of my thoughts here: Doubles in Heilbronn: Knittel / Schruff against Ouanna / Serra ( Ouanna retired from his single game earlier today) - can't find the reason yet... but 2.10 (droping from 2.50) for Knittel / Schruff looks tempting in my eyes... any point of view from the more experienced guys?

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Re: Australian Open 2013

I don't think there is a thread for the other tournaments... so I'm posting one of my thoughts here: Doubles in Heilbronn: Knittel / Schruff against Ouanna / Serra ( Ouanna retired from his single game earlier today) - can't find the reason yet... but 2.10 (droping from 2.50) for Knittel / Schruff looks tempting in my eyes... any point of view from the more experienced guys?
It is almost guaranteed that Ouanna will retire from the doubles as well though, isn't it? edit: And he did indeed retire.

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Re: Australian Open 2013

nice one vlazar good job ;) ... Federer had an a lot harder game than I expected... still this 9' date='5 without knowing who servs first looks so tricky in my eyes :P (but just might not get it from the right angle)[/quote'] I don't know why, but I like that pick, especially in the match between two solid servers ... and the odds are often good

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Re: Australian Open 2013 Back V.Azarenka/S.Stephens - Under 18.5 games for a 2/10 stake at 2.10 with Pinnacle Just two small bets, the bookies are not giving anything away really. First of all, I would not be surprised by seeing Stephens getting beaten soundly, as this will be the biggest match of her life so far and Azarenka will be more threatening than Serena, who is basically a friend of Stephens. I was surprised by seeing Azarenka play that well yesterday and a repeat of that should see her cover this line. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/azarenka-vs-stephens-betting-viktoria-azarenka-should-be-able-to-stop-the-young-american Back N.Djokovic/D.Ferrer - Over 3.5 sets for a 2/10 stake at 2.15 with Unibet I can understand the rationale behind having Ferrer at a higher plus line than Berdych, but then again, the Spaniard has more quality than the Czech overall and I would not be surprised by seeing him take a set if Djokovic has yet another blip in concentration at some point. If there is one thing you can be sure of, it is that Ferrer has enough stamina and determination. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/ferrer-vs-djokovic-betting-novak-djokovic-might-be-in-for-yet-another-tough-match

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Re: Australian Open 2013

S. Stephens - L. Robson - Pick S. Stephens @ 1.629 - Pinnacle Sports (3/10) WON S. Stephens - L. Robson - Pick S. Stephens (-3) @ 1.990 - Pinnacle Sports (1/10) WON K. Flipkens - M. Sharapova - Pick M. Sharapova (-8) @ 2.09 - Pinnacle Sports (1/10) WON E. Makarova - A. Kerber - Pick E. Makarova (+1.5 Set) @ 1.98 Pinnacle Sports (1/10) WON D. Ferrer - K. Nishikori - Pick K. Nishikori (+6.5) @ 2.12 Pinnacle Sports (2/10) LOST E. Makarova - M. Sharapova - Pick M. Sharapova (-7) @ 2.04 Pinnacle Sports (2/10) WON V. Azarenka - S. Kuznetsova - Pick S. Kuznetsova @ 8.20 Betfair (0.5/10) LOST V. Azarenka - S. Kuznetsova - Pick S. Kuznetsova (+5.5) @ 2.13 Pinnacle Sports (2/10) LOST R. Federer - J. W. Tsonga - Pick Tsonga (+5.5) @ 2.01 Pinnacle Sports (1/10) WON
V. Azarenka - S. Stephens - Pick S. Stephens (+5.5) @ 2.11 Pinnacle Sports (2/10) V. Azarenka - S. Stephens - Pick S. Stephens @ 8.35 Pinnacle Sports (0.5/10) The reason behind picking the American lies not in her win against Serena. The reason why I think that Stephens stands a chance against Victoria is that the Belarusian should have been gone from the AO long ago. She barely won against injured Hampton, she won against Kuznetsova by the skin on her teeth (despite the result showing something different). I do think that Stephens has a little bit less quality than Kuznetsova in the current form but if it wasn't for some minor health issues for Svetlana I believe we would have seen her in the semis now instead of Vica. Azarenka is very inconsistent in my eyes at the moment which is why I think that the match might end 6-4, 6-3 for her, unless the American can get a set off her. Cheers, Mark

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Re: Australian Open 2013 Didn't think I would betting again but the more I think about the Fed-Murray match the more I'm confident of Murray winning so.... Andy Murray - 2.5 games to beat Roger Federer @ 4/5 BET 365 Strength (6/10) The Murray-Federer rivalry is always interesting to me because Murray tends to win the normal ATP matches pretty comfortably alot of the time, whereas Federer in Grand Slams always has the edge. I think the reason for this in the past was Murray being too passive in GS and Federer leaping on that and being the aggressor, and then once he got ahead he was like a runaway train. Both Murray and Djokovic have admitted he's most definitely the best ever once he steals a march, and how hard he is to rein in once he does, and we've seen that against Murray over the years. Federer takes off and Murray goes into reverse. This time I think we'll see the Murray that takes control of the matches between the two in the best of three setters. His US Open win means he'll be less tentative and also he'll know that Djokovic will present a massive hurdle in the final, so he won't perceive this match as the sort of pressure-cooker that usually causes his passive play. That may come in the final against Novak, but he'll be all business in this match and I think he'll sustain the form that he showed against Federer in the first couple of sets against him at Wimbledon and come through relatively comfortably. Federer looked weak and meek for large spells against Tsonga and he generally does these days if you get on top of him early. Hopefully Murray takes to the night conditions (my only doubt) and if he does Federer should be disposed of. :hope

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Re: Australian Open 2013 Back Andy Murray (-2.5) to beat Roger Federer for a 3/10 stake at 1.96 with Pinnacle Back Andy Murray (-4.5) to beat Roger Federer for a 1/10 stake at 2.50 with Paddy Power I did want to have a bet or two on the doubles, but nothings stands out really, so going just with this. Basically, I think that this is Murray's match to lose really. In slow conditions, his A game beats Federer's A game - and the conditions are set to be slow in this particular session. In all fairness, Federer could have easily lost against Tsonga, so there is no big form on his side and I just feel that the longer matches will start slipping away from him rather soon. Furthermore, Murray needs to send a message to Djokovic here after that match with Ferrer, so I expect him to be up for this. The only thing he needs to do is to leave his mental issues in his hotel room really. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/murray-vs-federer-betting-andy-murray-looks-set-to-capture-a-nice-victory-against-the-swiss-number-one

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Re: Australian Open 2013 Murray - Federer over 40.5 @ 1.80 BETCITY 6/10 over 3,5 sets is the best pick in my eyes, but odd is to low so I decided to go with overs.. I do not see who could be celebrated with a 3-0, is totally unrealistic .. Murray has not so far had a real opponent, but this is a completely grind ... On the other hand Fedex had couple of difficult exams without much trouble (except where Tsonga also control the entire game) as possible, but he can not seem to play at the highest level .. As far as the sets are concerned, it is much more likely that there is any TB's and tense than easy sets like 6-1 or 6-2 ... there's nothing much more to add, but the feeling, 'form', matchup and everything indicates to quality and long game ...

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Re: Australian Open 2013 I'm going to go against the grain here. - ROGER FEDERER to beat Andy Murray @ 2.35 with unibet Until the event started, I was pretty convinced that it'd be a Djokovic-Murray final. I have, however, changed my mind on this one. Why? Well, it's mainly to do with Murray's form this tournament. Yes, he's not dropped a set, but I believe that is precisely the problem. He comes here a bit undercooked. In all of his successful Slams, he's often had to claw a win out of the fire. Last year, when he won the US, he had to battle past Cilic and Lopez. He came into the final ready for whatever battle lay ahead. In this one, I fear he may lack some big-game sharpness. Federer is in the zone right now. He's had to be on his game from day one, starting with Davydenko and finishing with Tsonga in the last match. He's battle-hardened, and this could well be a battle. Federer's desire is going to be pretty high right now. As much as he respects Murray in his media conferences, he'll dearly want to put the Scot back in his box. Murray has riled him, but I think since that US Open final, Andy's level has actually dipped a bit. Not enough to hurt him against the majority of the Tour in a Slam, but enough to make him susceptible against one of the other big boys. His backhand has been pretty slappy, his serve is still a bit fallible, and Federer has been hitting the ball crisply and sweetly. I'm just not feeling Murray right now, and for those reasons, I think Federer will win at a very nice price. :hope

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Re: Australian Open 2013 I've got a similar view on the match as Atko but I'm not quite sure what to think of the duel. I do think that Federer has got what it takes to beat Murray and I do think that the odds for the win are attractive enough but am a bit puzzled on Federer's performance in the match against Tsonga. He did win it but the number of faults commited did not remind me of the great RF. On the other hand Li was supposed to lose against the strong Sharapova who in turn was to meet Serena in the final but we all know it hasn't come true so why not Federed in the final against Djoko. Mark

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Re: Australian Open 2013 Back Li Na to beat Viktoria Azarenka 2-0 for a 2/10 stake at 4.00 with William Hill Fully expect the Chinese number one to win here. From what I have seen, she has been the better player of the two throughout the tournament so far, with Azarenka doing her best not to lose against Kuznetsova and Hampton - and let's not forget about the strange end to her match against Stephens. Not sure what is wrong with her at the moment, but Li Na has the game to pick her apart and I can see her doing that today. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/li-vs-azarenka-betting-the-final-match-might-be-a-nervy-affair-for-viktoria-azarenka Back Bryan/Bryan (-3.5) to beat Haase/Sijsling for a 2/10 stake at 1.72 with Unibet It would be a great story for Haase and Sijsling to win this, but I expect the Bryans to defeat them rather easily on the big stage. They have been there and done that, as they say, while the Dutchmen have not. The Americans have the right game for beating these one-dimensional duos and I simply cannot see past them. And since they have covered this line in all of their AO matches so far, they should be able to cover it today as well. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/bryan-bryan-vs-haase-sijsling-betting-the-american-legends-should-have-no-problems-in-the-final-match

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Re: Australian Open 2013 Just one bet for me at the moment. Azarenka to make first hawk eye challenge @ 1.83 with Stan James This ones simple, Azarenka has made 240% the amount of challenges Li Na has (12 to 5). Psychologically she is also likely to be more nervous and to jump on the opportunity to challenge early on. This is a bet because no way should the players be equally rated. Obviously this is heavily dependent on chance so not huge stakes.

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Re: Australian Open 2013 Back Total Number of Service Breaks - Over 9 for a 3/10 stake at 1.98 with Pinnacle The conditions are slow, both are great on return, and the match should have some mileage in it. So why should not we see nine or more breaks? No reason really, especially if you consider that this line was easily covered both in the US Open finals and in the last year's AO semifinal between the two. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/djokovic-vs-murray-betting-a-thrilling-contest-is-on-the-cards-in-the-final-showdown-in-melbourne Back Hradecka/Cermak to beat Gajdosova/Ebden for a 3/10 stake at 1.80 with Pinnacle Like yesterday, I think that the better duo is going to win in the finals. Hradecka and Cermak are much more experienced than their opponents, who I believe are quite likely to crack under the pressure that comes with Grand Slam finals. I would have the Czechs around 1.65, so this looks like a good price to me. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/hradecka-cermak-vs-gajdosova-ebden-betting-the-czech-duo-should-be-too-strong-for-the-local-heroes

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Re: Australian Open 2013 Djokovic - Murray over 41.5 @ 1.90 BETCITY 6/10 Try it .. at a good pace to finish very first GS of the season .. As far as Djokovic, the first few rounds as he should be dosed for a lightweight and easy wins the round robin, then comes the epic match vs Waw where it is literally a miracle saved and stupidity break after 6-1 4-1 but somehow survived after predictably raised form and beat Berdych .. semifinals with David, that story has played a game that can not be better and so I do not drink a lot of water because it is really such a matchup of David novices can not idealistic (and h2h it suggests), so it certainly room for improvement there for me .. As for Andy, he had literally to the semifinals with Roger had a ridiculous draw, it is not fair to sweat .. In the semifinals realistic result is far more convincing than those for sheets 3-2, because he missed chances and hill made incredible mistakes when he needed only to finish the job, especially at the end of the fourth set .. and later, in the 5th feki could not stand on their feet from exhaustion .. which specifically concerns the two, it's kind of unlikely that anyone (read Nole) get with a 3-0 ... last season, especially since the Olympics Murray broke through the psychological barrier that had against the rest of the big four, so you can now secure at least equal to their rivals ... both mint served here, Murray v. FedEx about 20% of aces and a huge first serve .. As far as the game of the fields are passionately prepared physically and virtually all of my shows 'epic match' .... I am only a little worried that maybe before the end of the match Murray does not fall apart, so that the branch is not left short in a couple of games, but I sincerely hope it will stay ok throughout the match and will play heroically to the end ..

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Re: Australian Open 2013 Cant really understand the lack of support for Murray and really thought the h2h markets would be alot closer than they are. Murray has spent the least amount of time on court this tournament and has only lost 2 sets (both to the fed). Despite being pushed in the semi he always seemed to be in control and definitely played the better tennis throughout. I just have this feeling that this will be Andy's year, he got his first major out of the way at the end of last year and that no doubt would have been a massive weight off his shoulders. While I think it will be close and more than likely go the distance I think the odds on Murray are to good to pass up. Murray/Over 41.5games $4 with TAB- stake 6/10

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Re: Australian Open 2013 Well done for some of the calls people, my tournament went okay overall. I'm still learning and personally speaking I was hampered by some in-plays bets. I'm doing some analysis though so fingers crossed I start playing more to my strengths in the future :ok

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