Australian Open 2013

[fishy25]

Re: Australian Open 2013

Three more for me. It's going to be a long night ... - TOMMY ROBREDO to beat Jesse Levine @ 2.12 with unibet (5pts) In all honesty, I've probably over-thought this one. Yesterday I said I wouldn't be totally comfortable with my money on the Spaniard and in a lot of ways, I'm not comfortable. The price, however, has lured me in. There's very little between these players, but Robredo has more Slam experience and if he plays anywhere near his best, he'll win. He's wily and crafty and prefers the slower courts in Australia. Levine has started the season brightly enough, but he's vulnerable on serve and might just get out-witted. - GUILLERMO GARCIA-LOPEZ to beat Rajeev Ram x TOMMY HAAS to beat Jarkko Nieminen @ 2.02 with unibet (5pts) Gulp. This is a heart-attack on a bet-slip. Tell you what though, I fancy it to come in. GGL, as I affectionately know him, is a roaster, but he's got more talent than Ram. The American is a very average player, one who has actually regressed down the years. GGL has it in his locker to mix it with the best, it just depends whether he brings his form to the table. I reckon he will. Haas v Nieminen should be very easy on the eye, but I feel Haas has a better serve and a little more accuracy in the key moments. They'll both win, but it'll be bollock-wrenching. Take this at your peril. - SABINE LISICKI to beat Caroline Wozniacki @ 2.62 with unibet (4pts) Wow, a lady bet. I don't often dabble in these. Bets on WTA, that is, not women. Plenty of those frequent the chateau. I'd happily welcome both Caroline and Sabine and treat them to a lovely bottle of Sainte-Emillion, but I suppose that dream will never come true. Anyway, all I've heard this week is that Wozniacki is going to lose this match. Apparently Lisicki is her worst match-up. I really think the dear Dane has other balls on her mind than the yellow fluffy ones she needs to hit with more venom. McIlroy has done little for her. Lisicki to win, mainly because you guys are all saying so. Right, time to watch ... and hopefully not weep!

It's okay mate. We're all friends here so no need to make stuff up. We love you regardless. ;)

[Atko]

It's okay mate. We're all friends here so no need to make stuff up. We love you regardless. ;)

Which part are you doubting ... castle, wine, women, bets, or all! :-)

[fishy25]

Re: Australian Open 2013

Which part are you doubting ... castle' date=' wine, women, bets, or all! :-)[/quote'] Think it's best to leave that for individual interpretation ;)

[fishy25]

Re: Australian Open 2013 In saying that, I'm incredibly close to biting on the Baker handicap and also Weintraub. May be back before too long.

[devman]

Re: Australian Open 2013 I just thought it may be useful to some to hear this bit of advice. If you are betting on paddy power especially with reference to the "to win a set & +1.5 handicap markets, you would have noticed that both are always priced the same. The only difference is the the +1.5 market was really designed as a safety net for the bookies. E.G, when you play to win a set, If your selection wins a set then either of them defaults afterwards, you still get paid. but with 1.5 market the match gets voided and the bookies win. So beware!!

[devman]

Re: Australian Open 2013 PUTINTSEVA VS McHALE Mchale has not been playing well and that has been clear to see. However, it is not enough reason to just put anything before her and expect her to fall easily. I think I may just have found myself a rising star with a lot of oomph and mustard in her game. Fill your boots because the bacon is coming home. GL.

[Torque]

Re: Australian Open 2013 One final punt from me for today. WTA Australian Open - Annika Beck to beat Yaroslava Shvedova @ 2.48 Betfair Annika Beck is another talented youngster who could spring a surprise by beating a more experienced player. She finished last season well in the level below the main tour, winning plenty of matches as well as a couple of titles. She's carried that good form into this season with a good showing in Shenzhen, where she lost in three sets to home player Peng Shuai in the quarters. Her opponent Shvedova has won first round matches this season in both Auckland and Hobart, before losing in the next round of both tournaments to Vesnina. Since her good run at Wimbledon last year, she hasn't got past the second round of any of the tournaments that she's played, and so it's hard to know how confident she will be feeling right now. If she falls behind against an in-form player like Beck, she might find it difficult to recover.

[Alovenac]

Re: Australian Open 2013 Livescore Thread Australian Open: 2.5/10 Falla -1.5 set tb. Ouanna @ 1.60 12Bet I'm very late with this one. But Falla have so more quality than Ouanna that he can beat the Frenchmen in straightsets or 3-1.

[Yak]

Re: Australian Open 2013

Really good, well-informed post :ok Hopefully you're wrong on Pella, but you've got me a bit worried now ...

Well done to you and those who took Weintraub in that. A few of you mentioned that momentum was on his side having had to qualify for the tournament - and it certainly looked like that. I suppose it makes sense. In that first set tie-break, Weintraub looked like a player who had played in several recent games/tie-breaks, whilst Pella seemed to lose heart when he lost a couple of the early points (which he didn’t do at the ATP Challenger Tour Finals). There were a couple of key moments in the match, and when it piles up you start to think it’s just not that players’ day. Firstly, Pella won four straight games to come back from *1-4 to *5-4 in the first set - only to be broken to love and lose the eventual tie-break. He then put pressure on Weintraub’s serve throughout the second set and missed a number of big opportunities (including a set point). Pella, who had served strongly in the second, then lost the next game at 5-5, for Weintraub to serve out the next game with ease to go two sets up. The final set Pella started to try and force things and Weintraub’s experience saw him secure a comfortable win. You have to give him credit as he took his opportunities and played the big points well under pressure. In all fairness to the Argentine, he played plenty of decent stuff in the opening two sets but his opponent was better on the day. Those who pointed to Weintraub’s recent matches were spot on, as that could well have been the difference between those tight points/sets at the start of the match.

[IAmGooner]

Re: Australian Open 2013 Bit of an average start for me, Gavrilova to win set came in, two bust displays by Hlavackova and Shvedova though,.

[Alovenac]

Re: Australian Open 2013 Hard begin for me, now its time to smash back.

[laneystain]

Re: Australian Open 2013 Absolutely terrible day at the office for me, the only winner being Jovanovski after she fell behind in the first. Both the Cilic-Matosevic and Seppi-Zeballos games I had overs in and they were both won in straight sets! Not been a very profitable start to AO13, lets hope the 2nd round is more fruitful.

[Pensioner65]

Re: Australian Open 2013 Another terrible,terrible day...its like betting on BDO darts anything can happen :lol I've learnt a massive lesson from this...avoid 1st round of Grand Slams,too many 'ifs & 'buts' & far too unpredictable. Just can't believe some of the results last night....I prefer to have the bet that favours me & a good chance of coming in...but all 4 of my picks were not even close. Hopefully,with the 2nd round starting tomorrow,it will be a better opportunity to get some winners. Good Luck all :hope

[CzechPunter]

Re: Australian Open 2013 Back Jie Zheng (+1.5 sets) to beat Samantha Stosur for a 3/10 stake at 1.95 with Unibet The two have already played five times against each other and there was only one two-setter amongst those battles, so I fancy Zheng to capture a set once again. Stosur was hardly impressive in the first round and this is yet another step up in quality, so I expect her to find it hard to deal with all those angles that Zheng will be able to produce. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/zheng-vs-stosur-betting-jie-zheng-looks-overpriced-against-the-struggling-australian Back Brian Baker (+2.5 sets) to beat Sam Querrey for a 3/10 stake at 1.81 with Pinnacle Querrey is a decent favourite in this one, but Baker should be able to turn this into a dog-fight and walk away with a set or two. He is decent from the baseline, came through one dog-fight already and will be able to deal with Querrey's serve at times. And Sam Querrey is certainly not the most consistent player around either. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/baker-vs-querrey-betting-brian-baker-might-be-a-tough-nut-to-crack-for-sam-querrey Back Matthew Barton/John Millman to beat Daniel Gimeno-Traver/Marinko Matosevic for a 3/10 stake at 2.72 with Bwin Matthew Barton and John Millman have both recorded some solid results recently, so I expect them to be up for this and do some damage with their serves and heavy hitting. Meanwhile, Matosevic has been horrible so far this season and Gimeno-Traver will have to play against Nicolas Almagro before even hitting the doubles section, so an upset might easily be on the cards here. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/barton-millman-vs-gimeno-traver-matosevic-betting-the-australian-youngsters-may-be-good-enough-for-a-first-round-victory

[Ka4by]

Re: Australian Open 2013 anyone know why tamira paszek is 2/1 (bet365) against Maddison Keys? is she injured? she hasn't been in the best of forms but still 2/1 is big against Keys

[eliasinmelb]

Re: Australian Open 2013 Czechpunter, regarding Sam Stosur, it ALL (or at least a lot) depends on her mental state. Technically, she's a brilliant player, and very muscular (she's even beaten Serena Williams), but her nerves often let her down. She has a bad record historically at Australian "home" events, where she feels stressed by the pressure to succeed. I'd agree with backing Zheng at the +1.5 set handicap. Oh... and if you bet on the match in-play, try to read her body language. If her shoulders look tensed up, or she looks stressed, it's a BAD sign.

[eliasinmelb]

Re: Australian Open 2013 Oh, obviously, if she looks relaxed and comfortable on court, it's obviously a good sign.

[Alovenac]

Re: Australian Open 2013 3/10 Verdasco to beat Malisse @ 1.67 William Hill Both players for who is this match very important after a bad period the last months. Malisse had a very good first round against gravel specialist Andujar 63 61 62, while Verdasco had a very hard match against good talent Goffin. Verdasco wins in five. I like Verdasco in tournaments like this, how bad his form in this matches and tournaments he stands his man. From 2009 till now he is 71-41 on hardcourt and he had some great results in Major Events. Verdasco's results on hardcourt Major Events: 2009: 28-9 2010: 14-9 2011: 14-10 2012: 8-7 On the other side we have Malisse. I think the Belgian is over the top. While he have play some good matches this year. A win over the out form Klizan and a solid victory over Giraldo (both in Auckland). The Belgian feel fine on this surface, but in tournaments like this he will struggling a lot. A fact is that Verdasco will a left-handed player and he don't like that much. See the result against Klizan a few weeks ago. Last year Malisse won on Wimbledon against Verdasco, but i know Malisse play at his best on grass. 2 meetings before that match are for Verdasco. Odds are dropping and i was still thinking about the -1.5 line for Verdasco, but i will chose the safe way here.

[Sir Puntalot]

Re: Australian Open 2013 Thread cleaned, Devman banned for having a mental age of 4.

[Alovenac]

Re: Australian Open 2013 2/10 Baker +2.5 sets to beat Querrey @ 1.88 Pinnacle Ofcourse Querrey will be clear favorite here. But Baker will a bit underrated here by the bookies. He play well, know how Querrey plays and had some quality with good returns to create some break chances. 2/10 Baghdatis -2.5 sets to beat Ito @ 1.63 Pinnacle Fine odd for me, for low stake here. Baggy loves to play here. He had a very hard first round against Ramos, but overall it was good for him. I don't know what Ito does here. He is out form and missing quality. Struggling against Millman in the first round, long 5-setter and also the matches in Sydney and Brisbane are poor. 2/10 Lopez to beat Stepanek @ 1.85 Pinnacle Head breaker here, it was the over or this. But this odd i will take it. Both players are very long in the tour, struggling sometimes and can play. Lopez loves to play on hardcourt and Grass but he want to dominate his own games with a good service and lefthanded forehand. 10 meetings in the history, 8 won by Stepanek. But this will say nothing for now, most meetings are years ago. Looking to the form and fitness, Stepanek was struggling with his fitness in Sydney where he don't play against Benneteau. I think Lopez have the best papers here. 2/10 Benneteau - Roger-Vasselin under 35 games @ 1.79 Pinnacle Benneteau are in very good form here. He will meet the other Frenchmen here and quality difference is big in my eyes. Very good perfomance in the first round for Benneteau, he beat Dimitrov in 3 sets and the youngster was playing well at the start of the season. A little surprise for me was that result. In Sydney he had a good tournament, losing against Anderson but playing well against Andujar and Harrison. Roger had a very hard first round against Bemelmans, he is not in fine form, but he won in the 5th set with 11-9. For the Frenchmen this will a attack on his fatique. The number 101 of the world ranking had not a long time to prepare for this match and i think it will hard for him to take a lot of games or maybe a set when Benneteau hold his niveau of the first match.

[fishy25]

Re: Australian Open 2013 Think we can all hold our hands up at what a poor day yesterday was although some of the calls were really unlucky in retrospect. Lisicki should have won the match whilst for me personally, 3 of the bets fell a game short either way and they should all have been covered so the results don't really match the pick unfortunately. We all have those bad days though, and hopefully the opposite will happen tonight. I know Atko said about being picky, and really identifying the right bets, and he is spot on, but tonight I actually really like the card so I am taking a few. Not gunna watch any of it tonight as I'm working at uni in the morning so hopefully the Gods will look down on me whilst I sleep. As always, men's bets first... Kei Nishikori (-8.5 games) to beat Carlos Berlocq- 5/6 Paddy Power- (6/10) I've opened an account with Paddies just for the sake of some bets tonight as their lines differ from most places. I had this line down, when analysing the match up, as at least a game higher with a narrower price so I'm happy to jump on board here. Nishikori is the far more talented player here, especially away from the clay as that's where Berlocq is more at home. On the quicker courts however, he doesn't have too much to show in the past and his first round win, which looked unlikely considering he lost the first set 6-1, is a bonus for the Argentine. Nishikori eventually prevailed comfortably in his first round match after dropping the first set against Hanescu and he should be comfortable here. He has still only lost the one match this season, that being to Murray in Brisbane and he's comfortably beaten players of a higher level than Berlocq on this surface. This line actually allows for a close set somewhere, and even a dropped set from Nishikori, but at some point, if not from the front, I expect him to dominate and win this one with plenty to spare. Nicolas Almagro vs Daniel Gimeno-Traver- Over 33.5 games- 10/11 Paddy Power- (5/10) Surprised to see the line so low here considering Almagro's tendencies in the slams and he's never had an easy game against his fellow Spaniard here in the past. The past 4 meetings have gone the distance to 3 sets and there have been plenty of tie breaks as well when these two have met. They both prefer the clay, but they also possess pretty big serves which helps the overs cause here. Almagro, despite being the better player has patches where he goes missing, especially in the slams and one fact to point out is that only once last year in the hard court slams, did he win a game in straight sets which is quite surprising given his talent. He dropped 2 sets to Steve Johnson as well which he shouldn't really be doing and with Gimeno-Traver recording a good win over Kubot in the first round, he should have enough here to test Almagro. Jerzy Janowicz (-5.5 games) to beat Somdev Devvarman- 17/20 BetVictor- (5/10) I like the Pole here and again expected a larger handicap to his name. Devvarman missed the three quarters of the season last year meaning he slipped down the rankings massively. He had a decent win over Phau in the first round but the German is little more than a challenger player these days and the score flatters the Indian a touch. He offered tons of break points in that game but Phau failed to capitalize enough, meaning Devvarman came through quite comfortably. The thing is, he really can't afford to that against Janowicz because if he is broken, he'll have an extremely tough time breaking back. The young Pole broke through last year, with him making the third round at Wimbledon and then the final in Paris and that should set him up for a decent year this season. He might still be slightly overrated because of that run in Paris but he had few problems in coming through his first match and his game should be too powerful for Devvarman really who is still getting match practise really. Devvarman actually won their only previous match but that was before his injury problems and Janowicz is a completely different player now to back then. Fancy him to come through this one, covering the handicap in the process. Tobias Kamke vs Stanislas Wawrinka- Over 33.5 games- 5/6 Paddy Power- (4/10) This line looks really low to me. Can't help but feel Stan is being extremely overrated here to be honest. He beat Stebe comfortably in the first round which surprised me but the same still applies in my books for Wawrinka. Mentally he is still very suspect and one result doesn't change that. Wawrinka was really comfortable in that one but Kamke is in better form and possesses a decent game to trouble Stan. The German has only lost the one game this season and that was to Ferrer where there isn't any shame in losing. His serve is decent and his all round game is generally quite solid and his comfortable win over Cipolla should give him confidence as well as his mini run in Doha where he won all of his matches easily. Wawrinka is still suspect to me and this line looks very low for one of his slam matches. He may well prove me wrong again for the second time this week, but I think Kamke will push him here. David Ferrer vs Tim Smyczek- Under 27.5 games- 4/5 Paddy Power- (4/10) Went against Ferrer successfully in the first round as I thought Rochus would push him given just how tricky he can be. Now however, I feel is the right time to back the Spaniard now he's got the first match out of the way. Rochus is always a tricky little test for anyone really and he's had a few problems in the past with the Belgian but he should win this one comfortably. Ferrer actually covered the unders, well this line against Rochus and I expect him to do the same again. Smyczek is here as a lucky loser as Stebe beat him comfortably in qualification so beating Karlovic was a good result for the American but there's always concerns over Karlovic's fitness these days so don't think we can read too much into that. The American hasn't really done anything away from the challenger circuit really and despite wins over Istomin and Melzer last year, Ferrer is an entirely different proposition. He's not got any weapons to trouble Ferrer as they both generally grind but the big difference is, Ferrer is far better at doing it. Don't see anything else than Ferrer coming through comfortably in 3 for the second game in a row. Sam Querrey vs Brian Baker- Over 37.5 games- 4/5 Bet365- (4/10) I'm with Czech here in thinking this will be a close affair between the two Americans. Querrey has the big serve whilst Baker favours the baseline exchanges and it should be an extremely competitive match. Querrey dropped the opening set in his first match whilst Baker slugged out a win against Bogomolov in 5 and I wouldn't be at all surprised to see this one go all the way. Baker has the quality in the rallies to really hold his own and but for Querrey's superior serve, I would have him as a decent shot to win this one but ultimately I do think he will fall short. That doesn't mean he can't make this last a while and I do fancy some really tight sets today. Last year their match went all the way to 3 sets and with both confident players in their own right, I fancy a really close fought thing here. 4 sets is the minimum I expect and hopefully that should see the line through. Lukas Lacko vs Janko Tipsarevic- Over 33.5 games- 5/6 Bet365- (3/10) This is another line which I think looks on the low side. It's always slightly risky backing Lacko as he can fall apart quicker than you can say Janko Tipsarevic but he's been in decent form in the early stages of this season, beating the likes of Troicki and Bellucci comfortably and then beat Muller in straight sets as well so he's clearly playing some good stuff at the minute. How Tipsarevic actually beat Hewitt in 3 sets I have no idea as the Aussie was a double break up in one of the sets before the Serb rallied. He is much the more consistent player here, but he has dropped sets to Bedene and Bautista-Agut this season so he his game can be slightly error prone on occasion. If Lacko is on song, he can really trouble the big boys but it's his consistency which lets him down. He has started the season well though and he does have the game to cause Tipsarevic problems here so with the possibility of Lacko actually showing up today, which I think he just might, I don't think Tipsarevic will have it quite as easily as he did against Hewitt and Lacko could well cause him problems today.

[Dylan]

Re: Australian Open 2013 Yep a bad day for me as well today. Two awful first sets from Jovanovski and Gadjosova being my downfall. Things picked up after that but nothing enough to see either bet home.

Bojana Jovanovski -3.5 games vs Maria Torro-Flor 1.70 at Unibet (3 units) :\ Yanina Wickmayer vs Jarmila Gajdosova over 20.5 games 1.91 at Stan James (3 units):\

Have taken a few in the mens for tomorrows action, but still mulling over the ladies at the moment. Sam Querrey vs Brian Baker – over 3.5 sets 1.90 at Boylesports ( 2 units) Baker is a real battler of player, we’ve seen him fight his way back into the game and the top 60 over the last year and he’s the type of player with a good defence that is relatively hard to beat particularly for those players with limited ability to mix it up. That’s perhaps a bit harsh on Querrey but as CzechPunter has stated in his preview he can struggle in tighter matches and is liable to drop his level sometimes. Like with a lot of big servers there is usually plenty of tight sets / tie breaks in Querreys, and these only need one mistake and the set could be gone. I think if Baker is motivated and plays as tenaciously as he can then he can force Querrey into such situations and push this game into 4 or 5 sets. Tobias Kamke to win a set vs Stanislas Wawrinka – 2.0 at William Hill (2 units) Over the last couple of years Wawrinka has tended to be someone who makes things difficult for himself in the early round slams. Last year we saw at the US open it took him 9 sets to get past Darcis and Stakhovsky and it was similar story at the French when getting past Andjular and Cippola. I’ve never watched him that much to know the reasons for this but it suggest as some physical or mental issues and he’s not going to find any let up when he comes up against Kamke. The German is a technically sound player, tough to break with a decent serve so won’t fold easily and I wonder whether Wawrinka has the focus to consistently be on top of Kamke’s game. Feliciano Lopez to beat Radek Stepanek – 1.75 at BetVictor (3 units) My biggest question here is whether Stepanek has the fitness to truly maintain a challenge to Lopez. The Czech man played out a five setter with Troicki in the heat of Melbourne on Monday that took nigh on 4 hours and that’s going have taken a lot of out him. Stepanek usually struggles in the early season matches as well as despite his qualities on this surface has never excelled at the Aussie Open, never get past the third round and the last time he did that was back in 2009. He hasn’t had too many matches yet this year either to get himself up to full fitness and indeed pulled out of the Sydney event last week through injury. Lopez has his limitations (but is still solid enough) on this surface but fitness isn’t one of them and he’ll be helped by having a first round in complete contrast to Stepanek as he was on court for just 84 mins against Bruges-Davi. Stepanek does have an outstanding H2H record over tonight’s opponent but it’s worth noting that Lopez’s two wins have been in the last two hard court matches. :hope I’ve also contemplated the + handicaps or over 26.5 games in the Djokovic vs Harrison game. Its always a danger to do this on Djokovic as he obviously has the ablity to tear opponents apart. However in there two previous meetings which included Wimbledon last year, Harrison hasn’t been torn apart and has managed to get games on the board. Djokovic was comfortable against Mathieu but never really got going and if he approaches this with a similar level of play then the American may well be able to register enough games to beat the overs line. Any thoughts on this one?

[Torque]

Re: Australian Open 2013 It looks like just one for me from today's card. ATP Australian Open - Xavier Malisse to beat Fernando Verdasco @ 2.32 >Betfair I've looked at this a few times now, and I can't really see why Malisse is this price. He's made a good start to the season, winning a couple of rounds in Auckland before losing a close match to Kohlschreiber. Whilst he was expected to beat Andujar easily in the first round of this tournament, first round matches can sometimes be tricky and I'm sure he will have been pleased with how he performed. He looks in good form at the moment, and he's been serving well. He should be feeling confident heading into this match against Verdasco, particularly as he beat him the last time they played each other. That was at Wimbledon last year, in what was also their only slam meeting to date. Although Verdasco leads the h2h, having beaten Malisse at both the French Open and in a Davis Cup rubber a couple of years ago, he appears to be struggling at the moment. He only won one match at the Hopman Cup, against youngster Kokkinakis, and he was easily beaten by Istomin in Sydney. In his first match here, against Goffin, he seemed to be fighting himself just as much as Goffin. In the end, he managed to get across the finishing line, winning in five sets. It's hard to know how much that match has taken out of him, and I think Malisse has a good chance of outlasting him here.

[Atko]

Re: Australian Open 2013 Well, some of us will have a good day three, as I'm going against the grain here ... - JANKO TIPSAREVIC -1.5 SETS v Lukas Lacko x MIKHAIL YOUZHNY -1.5 SETS v Evgeny Donskoy @ 2.06 with unibet I'll start with Tipsy. As much as Lacko has had a good season thus far, I don't think he's proved himself yet against Top 15 players. Already this year, he's been mightily whelped by both Ferrer and Gasquet, and I wonder whether he possesses the confidence to really push these guys. He's got big shots, but I do think he's mentally short of causing real danger to Tipsarevic. The Serb played really well on Monday against Hewitt. He's had a really strong last couple of years and has made giant strides. He's become far more consistent and he's one of the nicest ballstrikers around. I think he may only drop a set at the very most to Lacko in this one. As for Youzhny, I think that match against Ebden may have stirred him. It would have been very easy for him to curl up and go home after losing the second set from a 5-1 advantage. He showed his class and bottle to come through that. Donskoy, a fellow Russian, defeated Ungur in the last round without losing serve. On paper, a good result, but Ungur was one of the weakest players in the draw. Donskoy is all about power. If he starts to lose his range on serve and off the ground, Youzhny will put him in difficult places. I don't think he'll be able to cope with Mischa's variety. Always the danger Youzhny could drop a set, but I find it hard to see him dropping anything more. - SAM QUERREY -1.5 SETS v Brian Baker x JULIEN BENNETEAU -1.5 SETS v Edouard Roger-Vasselin @ 2.18 with unibet I read here that a lot of people fancy Baker. I'm honestly not convinced. Might have a set in him, but not any more. At least that's the way I see it. The hot conditions should go against Baker here. Querrey's serving well and will get a lot of pace on his serve. When Sam gets into a rhythm, he's a very hard man to break. Baker is a man I see regressing this year. His comeback in 2012 was astonishing, but his body isn't tuned in for Slam matches. Sure, he's canny, but I also feel his very ropey on serve and doesn't play with an awful lot of power. His match with Bogomolov showed how inconsistent he can be on serve, and I don't think he can seriously question Sam in this one. With Benneteau, I've been really impressed with his form this season. He had a good week in Sydney and posted a very impressive score against Dimitrov. He served well in that match and was clutch, and that, for me, will be the difference against ERV. Benneteau has had the better of him previously (2-1 on H2H) and ERV had a marathon match with Bemelmans in the last round. The form Julien is in right now, he should win this one quite cosily. - KEVIN ANDERSON -1.5 SETS v Andrey Kuznetsov x STANISLAS WAWRINKA -1.5 SETS v Tobias Kamke @ 1.94 with unibet Kuznetsov surprised a few people by beating Monaco in the last round, but the Argentine was carrying and injury and was nowhere near match fit. Playing Anderson is going to be a much tougher assignment for the young Russian. Kevin is a very professional player. He tends to do things ruthlessly these days against lower ranked players and I can only really see him dropping one set at the very most en route to victory. Anderson is the more consistent player; Kuznetsov will offer up more chances on his serve. The selection of Wawrinka will raise a few eyebrows, but I expect him to do this with a little bit to spare. Kamke is a solid enough player, but his lack of a killer weapon holds him back. He's not got a huge serve and isn't extremely dangerous off the deck. I was really impressed by Wawrinka against Stebe. He didn't lose his serve at all and preyed on the German's serve. We all know Stan is capable of dropping a set along the way, but I don't see Kamke as a true threat to his chances of progression in this match. Good luck whatever you're playing :ok

[Atko]

Re: Australian Open 2013

I’ve also contemplated the + handicaps or over 26.5 games in the Djokovic vs Harrison game. Its always a danger to do this on Djokovic as he obviously has the ablity to tear opponents apart. However in there two previous meetings which included Wimbledon last year, Harrison hasn’t been torn apart and has managed to get games on the board. Djokovic was comfortable against Mathieu but never really got going and if he approaches this with a similar level of play then the American may well be able to register enough games to beat the overs line. Any thoughts on this one?

I think it's best to stay away from the Harrison plus against Djokovic. A night match on Laver, when conditions will be slower, will really suit Novak. He can soak up Harrison's forehand far better on a slower hard court, and that will frustrate the young American, who still has plenty of learning mentally to do. I think night conditions in Melbourne are Nole's optimum conditions. I know Harrison kept it relatively tight at SW19, but the grass makes it so much harder to deal with his serve and forehand, with the pace and low bounce. Djokovic isn't at his best on grass (I know that sounds daft considering he's won Wimbledon), but he's a different beast here. +9.5 is a big line, however I'd say it's a brave bet if you take it.

[Arantxa]

Re: Australian Open 2013 Hi Lads, here are my thoughts and plays for todays matches: All odds from Pinnacle at the time i played. Berlocq +10 to beat Nishikori @1,543 Strenght 8/10 I do think that Nishikori is a bit overrated here against the up and always fighting Berlocq. These two are very even on serve and return stats and seeing that Nishikori had a slight injury vefroe the event i can see Berlocq keeping this close enogh. He won´t give up a set like Hanescu 6/0 and thats the key point for me here. Almagro -7 tb. Gimeno-Traver @2,10 3/10 and Almagro -8 @3,10 2/10Two key facts here for me: Serve: Almagro served fantastically against Johnson and if he keeps it nearly like this i can see very few to no breaks for Gimeno. Temper: Almagro has gotten a bit more serious and calm it seems. A few years ago he would have gone absolutely nuts after losing that second set to Johnson, now he remains calm and plays on. I think he will get enough break opportunities against the fellow spaniard to spike one clear set, which should be enough for this handicap. Devvarman +5,5 Games tb. Janowicz @2,22 Strenght 5/10 I think Devvarman is one a comeback route and Janowicz is overrated due to his success in Paris and his ranking position. Of course Janowicz has the weapons to clear Devvarman away 6/2 6/2 6/1 but he still has to prove that this is his level. If he cannot do this it will get tight against a proven Hard-Court Specialist. Berdych -9,5 tb. Rufin @2,10 Strenght 6/10 Berdych often goes to destruction mode in the early rounds as his fast paced serve and groundstrokes are too much for the average player. Rufin should be happy to get money and points for second round showing due to an easy draw. Berdych will have no sence of humor i gues. Donskoy +2,5 sets tb. Youzhny @1,625 Strenght 8/10 Youzhny has always lacked consistency and Donskoy is an up and comming player who is very dangerous. He will surely establish himself on the main tour soon winning 5 challenger events last year. I can see chances of an outside win or a five set clash but i like the smaller and safer options if they are available. Donskoy to take aset at least it is... Melzer -Bautista-Agut Over 38 Games @1,84 Strenght 6/10This Match shouts "Over" as Melzer in theory is the better tennis player and Bautista has the better form. Bautista is a good returner and not so dominant on serve, so is Melzer. If Melzer serves very good (even better than against Kukushkin) it could be a surprising clear win for him but under normal circumstances no man will have the guts to win in clear fashion. Bautista win in 5 sets i would see, many up and downs and many breaks of serve. Ferrer -9,5 tb. Smyczek @1,641 Strenght 8/10 Ferrer takes no prisoners if possible and has superb form. He is a player who brings his abilities on court 99% of the time and if he does he will destroy Smyczek at least in one set ( maybe the 3rd ). Ferrer is to good a returner for Smyczek to have easy life on serve which will also frustrate him bigtime. Baghdatis -7,5 tb. Ito @1,671 Strenght 8/10Baggy carries good form into this tournament and played very good on serve against a tricky and fighting Albert Ramos who is a dangerous player even if he likes clay more obviously. Ito´s serve is bad (3 Aces and 9 DF against John Millmann) and if Millman can have 15 Break-Chances it is lights out against in-form Baghdatis, serving 21 Aces against Ramos and winning solid 72% of first service points. Lopez tb. Stepanke ML@1,855 and -2,5 @2,22 Strenght 5/10 and 4/10 Odds move here and there in this one with the main concern beiing Stepanek´s fitness i guess. Is he fit? I don´t know. Serving very bad against troicki and still beating him is agood and a bad sign. Still even if Stepanek is fit he lost the last two matches on hard against Lopez who served 26 Aces and only faced 2 Breakpoints against Burgues-Davi who played very good in qualifying. Lopez is always motivated on the big slam stage and he is apperently feeling and playing good so there is no need for Stepanek beiing injured to win this, but if he is, its even better... (of course i wish Stepanek no bad) Benneteau -7,5 tb. Roger-Vasselin @2,11 8/10Benneteau is dominant on serve and knocked out Dimitrov in style. If he beats Dimitrov by 8 Games to spare i think he should be able to do this very often against a much more weaker opponent. Roger-Vasselin did well to battle trough in the first round 11-9 in the fifth, but he will feel that and a gulf in class today. Tipsarevic -7,5 tb. Lacko @1,917 Strenght 4/10 Tipsarevic 3:0 @1,87 Strenght 4/10 You just have to give credit to Tipsarevic for finally becoming a consistent player. Knocking out an in-form Hewitt in 3 in Australia derserves respect. Lacko is a dangerous player of course but he has his ups and downs and Tipsa will take advantage of that especially in the tight moments i can see Tipsa prevail and i can´t see him losing a set. I took both handicap and set-handicap because they nearly cancel out if it ends either 7/5 7/5 6/3 or 6/2 6/1 6/7 6/3 ish. But i see a straight win for Tipsa i this one. Verdasco -3 tb. Malisse @1,943 Strenght 8/10 This one will go to the wire and Verdasco has the better quality when it comes to fighting. He has a very good hard court slam record and better fitness, so there can only be one winner if it goes to five sets. Malisse has a habit to win his sets close and stay on serve, many 7/6 for him in the last years. This can only help Verdasco with this handicap as i see him winning his sets more comfortable. If we see a 6/3 6/7 in the first two sets it nearly comes down to a straight win to much better odds. I am very convinced of this so i staked 8/10 regardless of quiete high odds. Sideplays: Acca: Almagro+Tipsarevic+Benneteau+Verdasco+Bautista @4,90 3/10 Acca: Almagro+ Tipsarevic+Benneteau+ Verdasco+ Lopez @ 4,70 4/10 Acca: Almagro+ Tipsarevic+Benneteau+Lopez+Bautista @5,52 3/10No idea on the other matches...

[slider24]

Re: Australian Open 2013 Can't believe Baker didn't at least win a set yesterday against Rosol. Served for the first set and 5-2 up in the second. He wins the match if he takes the first IMO. Anyway lets move on... Ricardas Berankis to beat Florian Mayer @ 6/5 BET 365 Strength (7/10) Always think Mayer is vulnerable in five setters and especially with the conditions being so hot when this match will be played (Thursday it will be 39 degrees), then he should struggle even more to last the distance. He will also be coming off the back of a five setter against Rhyne Williams, so I really fancy the Latvian Berankis to be too strong and consistent in this second round duel. He's showed really good form so far and was impressive in despatching Stakhovsky in straight sets. So he is well primed here to reach the third round and get his career really back on track. Mayer loves to diffuse servers and Berankis will spar patiently. The German should lose interest pretty soon. Evgeny Donskoy to beat Mikhail Youzhny @ 3/1 BET 365 Strength (4/10) Youzhny peaked for me in 2010/11. He's been on the down slope ever since IMO, and has had some decidedly dodgy Grand Slam results since, losing to Gulbis in straight sets at the 2011 US Open and Golubev at this tournament in the first round last year. I can't get his form at the end of last season out of my mind as well. He looked thoroughly disinterested and while he often struggles to rouse himself at the start of matches before pulling his finger out, like he did in the last match versus Ebden and various other times through the years, there are signs that he's having to dig deeper and deeper to do so. Donskoy is the new rising Russian star, and while he hasn't had much Grand Slam experience, he had a really good year last season and I think he might fancy the challenge of facing up to his listless countryman. He took a set off him two years ago in Moscow and I think he can use his freshness and power game from the baseline to consign Youzhny to another early Grand Slam loss. :hope

[Torque]

Re: Australian Open 2013 Having had a bit of a think about it, and thanks to contributions from others on the thread, I'm going to play one more match. ATP Australian Open - Tobias Kamke to beat Stanislas Wawrinka @ 6.40 >Betfair In all honesty, Wawrinka hasn't made the most convincing of starts to the season. He's lost to Bedene in Chennai after beating Stebe, and then beaten Stebe again in the first round here. I agree with the idea that he seems to make things difficult for himself, and if he can lose one set against Kamke, I don't see any reason why he can't lose a couple more. Kamke is in good form, and should provide a far sterner test for Wawrinka than Stebe did.

[fishy25]

Re: Australian Open 2013 Taking some for the women as well. Venus Williams (-6.5 games) to beat Alize Cornet- 5/6 Bet365- (4/10) I expect Venus to follow in Serena's footsteps yesterday. Perhaps not quite as easily, but comfortably nonetheless. She hammered Voskovoeva in the first round, which sometimes the American is a little slow in and she's won 4 on the bounce this season which is good to see again. Cornet I actually think is a decent player and has some potential but the truth of the matter is her form from a couple of years ago has deserted her a bit and last season, she did very little away from the clay. She ended the year really poorly and hasn't started 2013 a whole lot better, dropping sets against Bobusic and then getting easily beaten by Scheepers. She only just about scraped through against Erakovic who is distinctly average and Williams should be able to hit through Cornet today. She's in good nick and won all 4 sets in the past against her, covering the handicap on their most recent meeting which was on a hard court. Jie Zheng vs Sam Stosur- Over 20.5 games- 5/6 BetVictor- (4/10) Was pretty close to pulling the trigger on Zheng for the win her but I've stuck to the overs. Zheng beat her just a couple of weeks back in Sydney and Stosur really just doesn't seem to play well in her home tournament. Why that is, I don't think anyone has a clue as the conditions really suit her as well as having home support but she just never seems to do it. She was pretty fortunate to beat Chang as easily as she did in the end and the first set could have easily gone the other way. Zheng also won a pretty tight match and looking at the H2H, it's hard to make an argument to why this won't be close. 4/5 of the matches they've played have gone to 3 sets, and really tight 3 sets as well and neither has started the year well. Like I said, there should be some value for your money if you back Jie Zheng, but I'm happy to stick with the overs in what should be a nervy match for Stosur you fancy. Tamira Paszek to beat Madison Keys- 2/1 Bet365- (3/10) Now, I didn't bite the bullet on Zheng but I am with Paszek and it's the first real 'underdog' that I've backed outright so far. I put the word underdog in inverted commas because I just don't see it myself. I know the American put a really good run together in Sydney, beating Safarova and Zheng and also Li Na, but she's also lost in straight sets to a girl ranked outside the top 200 this year and narrowly beat Dellacqua who isn't up to the level of Paszek. The Austrian seemed to go off the boil after Wimbledon and the grass season last year but given her quality and her game, she is no way a 2/1 shot in my eyes. She pushed Jankovic in the second set over in Sydney, and now she's won a game this season, that should give her confidence and ease the pressure off her shoulders somewhat. She has a really powerful game as she showed last year on the grass and given Keys is still inexperienced at this level, Paszek looks to be the call here. Angelique Kerber (-5.5 games) to beat Lucie Hradecka- 4/5 BetVictor- (3/10) Kerber is probably one of my least favourite people to back with handicaps as she's let me down in the past but willing to give her another go here. She should win this comfortably, despite my backing in all honesty. She beat the Czech twice last year, very comfortably at Wimbledon and actually beat her twice in 2008 as well when Kerber was a shadow of the player she is now. That suggests that Hradecka has match up problems with the German and her recent losses to an erratic Pavlyuchenkova and Morita really don't feel you with confidence. Mentally, she's not the best and if she losses a couple of games in a row, she can really start getting the hump like only women know how to. These days, she seems to enjoy her best results in the doubles and she has almost seemed to prioritize that format given her contrasting success in the doubles and singles. Kerber was rotten in truth over in Brisbane from what I saw but she improved over in Sydney and she played pretty well in beating Kuznetsova from what I saw. She comfortably came through her first round match and she should be able to counter punch Hradecka's power her to her advantage. Handicap allow a tight set providing she can win one of them easily and that should be within her in my opinion.

[Dylan]

Re: Australian Open 2013 Heather Watson +3.5 games vs Ksenia Pervak 1.87 at unibet (2 units) I’m spotting a bit of an overreaction in the odds to Watson’s iffy display against Cadantu in the first round. From what Watson has said post game, the issue was just more about poor preparation, too much waiting around & too much warming up etc rather than any particular injury / sickness and I expect her and her coaching team to correct any mistakes they may have made. Even after all that her performance wasn’t exactly terrible, she fought for the comeback and was eventually saw of Cadantu relatively comfortably. I’ve no doubt this game is going to be a harder test as Pervak has better pedigree on this surface but the Kazakh doesn’t have the game to overawe a confident Watson. She’s prone to lapses in matches and in recent months has often required 3 sets to beat anyone half decent. Jelena Jankovic -5.5 games vs Maria Koehler 2.0 at Paddy Power (1 unit) I’ve been deliberating this one for a while, and at this price I like it too much not to have a dabble. Jankovic is usually pretty strong in the earlier rounds of hard court slams and even tour events, and it’s not until later than she comes unstuck. She continued in this vain in her first round match winning 6-2 6-2 against Jo Larsson, who is arguably the better hard courter than todays opponent. Koehler has never proved herself on this surface, and whilst she may have one good set in here I don’t think she’ll be able to match the speed or the quality of Jankovic as the game goes on and should fade in the latter set(s). Venus Williams vs Alize Cornet – under 18.5 games 1.80 at unibet (2 units) This looks ominous for Cornet, after Williams annihilation of Voskoboeva in the opening round. After that match the American mentioned that she’s aiming to spend as little time on court as possible and given what could be a gruelling third round against Sharapova that’s understandable. Williams has already got plenty of match practice and fitness under her belt after competing at the Hopman Cup, so has no concerns in that regard. If she comes out as she did in that opening round then Cornet is nowhere near strong enough to compete with Williams. They’ve met twice in the past with the American winning both comfortably. Makerova to beat Foretz- Gacon 2-0 and Sorana Cirstea to beat Krystina Pliskova – 2.26 at BetVictor (1 unit) I don’t usually take doubles that much, but I see value in both these matches so this is worth a shot. Foretz-Gacon is a pretty poor player, her experience helps her match weaker players like Giorgi in the big slams but she struggles against anyone half decent which is why she’s never gone past the fsecond round in slams for 10 years. Makerova should then be too strong, and will be highly motivated as she has plenty of points to defend following her strong run last year. Cirstea is my opinion has been a much more consistent performer over the last year or so and I know feel like I know what I’m getting when I back here. If she plays at a good level then she’s got enough weapons in her game to get past Pliskova. Good luck to everyone in tonights / tomorrow mornings actions. :hope