Need help analysing handicaps (NH)

[Smarty72]

Hi guys, I am really struggling to analysis and work out handicaps especially hurdles. The biggest issue for me is the weight carried and the OR. I understand that handicaps are based around the OR which in theory puts on horses on an equal winning mark. How do you guys work out contenders and what has a real chance, i.e what are your secrets and golden rules. At the moment I am considering giving handicap races a miss as I am struggling to work them out and what horses have a live chance. Any help or advise much appreciated.

[Toast]

Re: Need help analysing handicaps (NH) Don't bet on handicap races as a rule, but, making your own ratings must be a logical starting point, then altering them to your own opinion on each horses performances.

[jayalexander]

Re: Need help analysing handicaps (NH) Yeah, give handicaps a miss for now. There's a better chance to make money with the correct selection but it can be a minefield. Stick to non handicaps such as novices as the best horse often wins; it'll take less time, too, to analyse the contenders. I like to look out for those that have come close in a novice race lto that are running in maiden hurdles. However, if you insist on tackling handicaps, then trainer and jockey form at the track can be a useful pointer. Keith Reveley was 4 handicap hurdles in 5 at Doncaster over the past year, before yesterday, and had a 20/1 winner with Harvey's Hope. It was a 19 runner race though, so I dismissed it as I thought others had a better chance.

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Need help analysing handicaps (NH) Personally I think handicaps are the easiest to work out! Just remember that the horse that is the most ahead of the handicapper has a better chance than one that isnt, providing the conditions suit. Look at past form, see how the other runners have done since and pay attention to what class of race these other horses have won or placed in.

[The Saint]

Re: Need help analysing handicaps (NH)

Personally I think handicaps are the easiest to work out! Just remember that the horse that is the most ahead of the handicapper has a better chance than one that isnt, providing the conditions suit. Look at past form, see how the other runners have done since and pay attention to what class of race these other horses have won or placed in.

I'd kind of agree - half the work is done for you by the handicapper! You've just gotta work out which one he's messed up on and then if the odds are high enough for you to make a long term profit... This may sound dutch but for me, non-hcaps are the easiest races to find winners but hcaps provide you with the best chance of making a long term profit - ie. Bookmakers make many, many more pricing errors in these races... It's not about picking winners - it's about picking enough winners at prices bigger than they should be.

[jayalexander]

Re: Need help analysing handicaps (NH)

Personally I think handicaps are the easiest to work out! Just remember that the horse that is the most ahead of the handicapper has a better chance than one that isnt, providing the conditions suit. Look at past form, see how the other runners have done since and pay attention to what class of race these other horses have won or placed in.

Yeah, with you there. As we all know, technically the horse wearing saddlecloth 1 is the best runner in the race - in the eyes of the handicapper, but that doesn't take into account other factors such as the jockey ability :ok Handicapping 101 :) To the OP - invest in a book to help guide you :ok

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Need help analysing handicaps (NH) Is a horse potentially better than their mark? This can be for a few reasons. If a horse is exposed and unlikely to improve much, history of their handicap marks and subsequent results are important. It's not impossible for older, seasoned campaigners to suddenly go into a purple patch but on the whole they're fairly easy to assess. With these types, it's important for me to look at their past. If they seem to win their races off marks around 100 then it's likely that they'll prove capable of competing off that mark now when in form. So say the horse loses form and subsequently its mark drops to 90, but if it suddenly shows improved form last time out (even if rising in the weights subsequently) then I'll see it as a potential bet as the horse appears to be back in form and is racing off a lower mark than its won off in the past. Then you have other horses who are inexperienced and therefore open to improvement. It's difficult to assess what young horses' marks should be but you can usually tell by watching them run whether they look like they'll go on to be a fair bit better than they are at present. It's difficult for horses coming out of novice and maiden company so I wouldn't start there really. It does, however, lead on quite nicely to other reasons why a horse may be well-handicapped. The form of its previous races is important to me when looking at races. If a horse won a race last time out and the other horses in the race ran well in subsequent races, it generally suggests the form of the race is good and that it beat horses running to their marks, and therefore can be competitive off a higher rating. A few things to bear in mind, then: 1. Proximity - If the horse was say, 1 of 2 horses who pulled 10l clear (in a handicap) then the odds are that those two runners are well-handicapped and therefore you may believe that whatever their penalty, it might not be sufficient to stop them next time out (especially if the other clear horse runs again since and copes well off a higher weight.) 2. Marking a performance up - It's clearly possible that even if a horse has run well in one race, it may not have been an ideal contest for them. They may get to run next time out off the same mark, or a higher one, but there's reason to believe that the rise in the weights isn't going to be enough for a few reasons. Say a horse made a couple of crucial errors, jumped right-handed around a left-handed track, idled in front, or the track didn't suit, the handicapper may not view this the same way as you and therefore you have a horse handicapped to win a specific race. 3. New conditions - So that's a couple of things to look at from horses who have been in form, but what if they don't seem to be running very well? Perhaps conditions just haven't suited it. If a horse is running midfield (and say, staying on) in its handicaps then it's going to come down the weights and subsequently can be off a good mark. Say that horse now gets three miles (rather than two) which should help, then you might have the handicapper where you want him on that particular horse. Similar can be said if the horse has been running on heavy ground which isn't ideal, for example. Horses running similar type races (say 6th of 20) regularly under conditions which seem to suit are probably within the handicapper's grasp and can be largely given the swerve. 3. Be Wary - At the same time, even if everything appears good, there are a few reasons as to why an impressive winner (for example) may not be well-treated next time out. They might have won by 10l but generally the higher grade, the more chance they are of being fairly-treated. The lower down the pyramid you go (and the less competitive races), the less likely that the other horses in the field are of running up to their marks. Therefore a 100-rated horse winning by 10l may not be a 112-rated horse, for example, because the runner-up may not have been in form and therefore running to its mark. Similarly (especially in small fields), if the rivals in a race won by a horse had excuses, then it's another reason as to why the form may be questionable and therefore not necessarily fairly treated off a higher mark. If a 5 runner race has the winner, one horse out of form going into, one returning from an absence, one who seems to want better ground, and one who seems to want further, this is another reason why a penalty may stop the horse from going in again. Sorry for waffling, and probably not making much sense, but just some of the things I think about when looking for the winner of a handicap. It's obviously difficult and doesn't always work in theory but anyway. To conclude, the type of horses I look for in a handicap are one of these: 1. Unexposed, young horse who appears to have plenty of improvement in them (which hasn't been factored in by the handicapper) 2. An experienced horse who is in form but still off a mark they've won off in the past 3. A horse who has recently been racing when conditions haven't been ideal (e.g wrong trip, wrong ground) 4. A horse who has form tied in with horses who have subsequently run well (especially if there were two or three horses who pulled clear) 5. A horse with decent form in higher grade, competitive races (form more likely to stand up) 6. A recent winner who may have been leniently dealt with by the handicapper because they won a race where things didn't go their way (wrong conditions, bad jumping, idled in front) As said elsewhere in the thread, you're basically looking for chinks in the handicapper's armour. Where do you think they may have gone wrong with their assessment? A few of the things I've mentioned will hopefully help highlight a few profiles of horses that may well fit this criteria.

[BillyHills]

Re: Need help analysing handicaps (NH) Good answer Rupert. Smarty, dont forget the sticky Horse Racing Glossary / Q&A Quite a few good threads about handicapping.

[NeilM]

Yeah, with you there. As we all know, technically the horse wearing saddlecloth 1 is the best runner in the race - in the eyes of the handicapper, but that doesn't take into account other factors such as the jockey ability :ok Handicapping 101 :) To the OP - invest in a book to help guide you :ok

Although as per our conversation last night some people don't quite get that being No 1 doesn't mean you're the top weight in a non-handicap. Happened again today apparently. Get a copy of the Racing Post 'Definitive Guide to betting on Racing.' I think one of the best going.

[jayalexander]

Re: Need help analysing handicaps (NH)

Although as per our conversation last night some people don't quite get that being No 1 doesn't mean you're the top weight in a non-handicap. Happened again today apparently. Get a copy of the Racing Post 'Definitive Guide to betting on Racing.' I think one of the best going.

Haha! You'd think that someone would tell the poor bugger, wouldn't you?

[Primevil]

Re: Need help analysing handicaps (NH) If you are a novice with Hcaps. My two pence worth is for now, stick to 14 runners or more, I say this because you are more likely to get a true run race on the day. Have small each ways. Back 2 or even 3 if the price allows in the race. In all honesty a 14 runner hcap, you should be at least giving the race 45 mins of study. Visualy see the runners through video replays, most of these are free. Analyse the race when you have time, to see were you went wrong or hopefully how you got it right. Make notes on horses, for next time even if you did not back it then. Which horses were treated tenderly with a future in mind. How did the betting go with those horses(most important) Pre and post race, 90 mins, No one said it is easy, but it will pay off. ps I would say if you are a novice, leave the AW out for now, for reasons i'll keep to myself...To many swear words.:lol

[Smarty72]

Re: Need help analysing handicaps (NH) Thanks guys for all posting and offering advice, lots of really good advice in there to digest and lots of really good points which I hope will be useful to others as well as myself. I have to say not sure what response I was going to get from my original post, but you have all exceeded my expectations with the information and advice given. Punters Lounge contributors are the best and most knowledgeable and are certainly not afraid to offer good advice to newbies like myself. Again many thanks guys and will now digest and use this information to hopefully make better betting decisions in handicaps.

[Smarty72]

Re: Need help analysing handicaps (NH) Have taken on board all comments and advice and have had a look at 13.50 Handicap Chase at Huntingdon. These are my thoughts on the runners. Addiction - Top weight maybe to much for an inexperienced chaser. RULE OUT Trifollet - Pulled up last 3 starts, may prefer better ground. RULE OUT Trojan Sun - PU last time out on handicap chase debut on heavy dropped 3lb for that. 3 chases runs so far with 2 thirds. Unsure if ground or distance right today. Open to improvement but to many doubts. CONSIDER Bolachior - Long time since win and not been in the mix since 2010. RULE OUT Its Like That - Has won off higher mark than today but not since 2009 in handicap company. Probably prefer better ground but is on lowest career chase mark and a consistent finisher. CONSIDER Great Hero - Lightly raced over fences with 3 runs. Was hampered last time on handicap debut but was well behind. Is open to improvement. RULE OUT Glen Countess - Lightly raced over fences with 3 runs. Good 2nd last time out. May need further. CONSIDER Refusual - Lightly raced over fences. Ground should be ok but not sure on best distance. Room for improvement. CONSIDER Irish Guard - Back down to winning mark and distance ok but Last 3 runs poor. RULE OUT Bertenbar - Has not won or run well of todays mark, maybe to high. RULE OUT Gee Dee Nen - Lowest mark for a long while but poor recent form. RULE OUT Moscow mule - Handicap debut and shown nothing so far. RULE OUT Croco Mister - Struggled last time of this mark, makes mistakes. RULE OUT So my shortlist would be Trojan Sun (16/1), Its Like That (12/1), Glen Countess (5\1) and Refusual (6\1). No bet but interested to see how i do. Probably not a good race to choose as a number of horses look as if they could improve.

[scotty657]

Re: Need help analysing handicaps (NH) Strangely I prefer betting on handicaps, although I only bet on flat racing,not jumps.

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Need help analysing handicaps (NH)

Have taken on board all comments and advice and have had a look at 13.50 Handicap Chase at Huntingdon. These are my thoughts on the runners. Addiction - Top weight maybe to much for an inexperienced chaser. RULE OUT Trifollet - Pulled up last 3 starts, may prefer better ground. RULE OUT Trojan Sun - PU last time out on handicap chase debut on heavy dropped 3lb for that. 3 chases runs so far with 2 thirds. Unsure if ground or distance right today. Open to improvement but to many doubts. CONSIDER Bolachior - Long time since win and not been in the mix since 2010. RULE OUT Its Like That - Has won off higher mark than today but not since 2009 in handicap company. Probably prefer better ground but is on lowest career chase mark and a consistent finisher. CONSIDER Great Hero - Lightly raced over fences with 3 runs. Was hampered last time on handicap debut but was well behind. Is open to improvement. RULE OUT Glen Countess - Lightly raced over fences with 3 runs. Good 2nd last time out. May need further. CONSIDER Refusual - Lightly raced over fences. Ground should be ok but not sure on best distance. Room for improvement. CONSIDER Irish Guard - Back down to winning mark and distance ok but Last 3 runs poor. RULE OUT Bertenbar - Has not won or run well of todays mark, maybe to high. RULE OUT Gee Dee Nen - Lowest mark for a long while but poor recent form. RULE OUT Moscow mule - Handicap debut and shown nothing so far. RULE OUT Croco Mister - Struggled last time of this mark, makes mistakes. RULE OUT So my shortlist would be Trojan Sun (16/1), Its Like That (12/1), Glen Countess (5\1) and Refusual (6\1). No bet but interested to see how i do. Probably not a good race to choose as a number of horses look as if they could improve.

Good luck Smarty! Fwiw I looked at this race last night and couldnt pick a winner. It can be harder in these lower class races but there should be some good handicaps to get stuck into tomorrow which will be perfect practice!

[mowgli77]

Re: Need help analysing handicaps (NH)

Have taken on board all comments and advice and have had a look at 13.50 Handicap Chase at Huntingdon. These are my thoughts on the runners. Addiction - Top weight maybe to much for an inexperienced chaser. RULE OUT Trifollet - Pulled up last 3 starts, may prefer better ground. RULE OUT Trojan Sun - PU last time out on handicap chase debut on heavy dropped 3lb for that. 3 chases runs so far with 2 thirds. Unsure if ground or distance right today. Open to improvement but to many doubts. CONSIDER Bolachior - Long time since win and not been in the mix since 2010. RULE OUT Its Like That - Has won off higher mark than today but not since 2009 in handicap company. Probably prefer better ground but is on lowest career chase mark and a consistent finisher. CONSIDER Great Hero - Lightly raced over fences with 3 runs. Was hampered last time on handicap debut but was well behind. Is open to improvement. RULE OUT Glen Countess - Lightly raced over fences with 3 runs. Good 2nd last time out. May need further. CONSIDER Refusual - Lightly raced over fences. Ground should be ok but not sure on best distance. Room for improvement. CONSIDER Irish Guard - Back down to winning mark and distance ok but Last 3 runs poor. RULE OUT Bertenbar - Has not won or run well of todays mark, maybe to high. RULE OUT Gee Dee Nen - Lowest mark for a long while but poor recent form. RULE OUT Moscow mule - Handicap debut and shown nothing so far. RULE OUT Croco Mister - Struggled last time of this mark, makes mistakes. RULE OUT So my shortlist would be Trojan Sun (16/1), Its Like That (12/1), Glen Countess (5\1) and Refusual (6\1). No bet but interested to see how i do. Probably not a good race to choose as a number of horses look as if they could improve.

Trojan Sun wins at 8-1, not sure if it was backed in or if there were any non runners? Well done anyway. :ok

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Need help analysing handicaps (NH) Refusal was in 2nd when somehow staying on its feet at the last too :ok

[Smarty72]

Re: Need help analysing handicaps (NH) Thanks guys! Would not have narrowed it down to the winning selection but it was available with Stan James just after time of posting at 18\1, so must have been some sort of gamble. 2nd, 3rd and 4th were all ruled out so only limited success. This time would have made profit if backed at all short listed at level stakes but sure that's not the case all the time! Will probably use a similar approach in some of tomorrows big handicaps but will not post, going to paper trade for a few weeks and see how i do.

[bully3061]

Re: Need help analysing handicaps (NH) Good work getting it down to those few. If you have not tried HRB yet use trial through punters lounge and you may of found the winner with the help from the sire stats as they were pretty strong for this race.

[Smarty72]

Re: Need help analysing handicaps (NH) This was my handicap study of the day. Lets see how i get on! Was posted early in my personal thread so prices may have changed. 15.35 Warwick - >Betfred Classic Chase - Grade 3 Handicap Chase 3m 5f After long study have got this down to a shortlist of 4 but will only bet 3, all 1pt win. Pete The Feat -NO BET In excellent form and winner of last 5 chases but biggest test yet and stepping up in class. Ground ok but has never ran this far before and would need to improve quite considerably to win this. At 4\1 to short a price. Bradley - WIN @ 7\1 Bet365 BOG Good jumper and good recent form at similar level. Has 4 wins and 4 seconds from 11 chases and will act on ground. Looks a proper stayer. Not won at this level yet but looks as if it will one day. My strongest fancy in the race and expect it to be placed. Major Malarkey - WIN @ 12\1 Bet365 BOG Top jockey and trainer duo who both know how to win races like this. Real stayer and will go on ground. Was 4th last year and 5lb higher today but capable of carrying the weight on his back. Will be staying on at the end. Has some form at this level but not won higher than class 3. Flying Award - WIN @ 12\1 PP BOG Improving horse and bottom weight. Will stay and no issues with the ground and has won 3 of 5 chases. Upped in class but of all the horses that are open to improvement this looks to have the best chance at the prices. Trainer has booked Aidan Coleman for the ride and this could make a big difference as usually ridden by her daughter.

[THE % MAN]

Re: Need help analysing handicaps (NH) A very intersting thread and some spot on replies and in many ways the hardest races to find consistant winners. For me look at handicap races were all the horses have at least had 1 previous run in a handicap as 1 never knows what to expect from 1 that is 1st time handicapping Personall I prefer the RACING POST PAPER [web site ok if you are a member] as the past ratings are on 1 page which includes up to the past 6 handicap runs. By viewing the official BHB rating for today you see three thing 1 If the horse as won or finished 2nd IT WEIGHT WILL HAVE INCREASED. 2 Some will be the same [maybe those finnishing 3rd lto may be same or up a couple of lbs] 3 Those that have droped in weight and may be getting near a PAST WINNING MARK The above maybe A LOT MORE RELERVENT IN CLASS 1-3 RACES and in many of those races MAINLY FRI SAT and the likes of CHELT and other TOP CLASS MEETINGS. The biggest prob many do enter the same races and the TRAINER MAY WELL JUST HAVE 1 IN MIND and just running them to keep them fit yet still droping down in weight for the right oppertunity but usually these horse are always there abouts in previous 2 races. Also although many may laugh many of the winners of these races ALSO HAVE A TOP 5 SPEED RATING and if they coinside with the best R/P rating do run well and some do win. If you can get old of a racing post even if after the EVENT [ maybe well in with your bookie] and just view these races and SEE WERE THE WINNERS COME from in the 3 points shown as well as their SPEED RATING as it may help you in your quest T%M