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NFL: Divisional Round picks


Samba_SamPa
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My 1pt bookie donation to kick the thread off ;) ... No in-depth reasoning behind this, they're all dogs, I don't 'expect' any of them (bar the Packers perhaps) to even win their game... BUT... in each case it wouldn't be a huge huge shock were it to happen. So, without further ado... Green Bay to win by 14+ pts @ 17/2 Baltimore to win by 14+ pts @ 30/1 Houston to win by 14+ pts @ 33/1 3 x 0.2pt singles, 3 x 0.1pt doubles, 0.1 pt acca - all with Paddy Power If it all comes in, that 1pt stake will return 1333.35pts :loon :lol :hope

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Re: NFL: Divisional Round picks Denver -9.5 @ 1.97 pinnacle Denver -16.5 @ 2.98 centrebet Denver -23.5 @ 5.55 centrebet Denver have been exceptional at home, as they have won 7 of their 8 games, as they have scored 30+ points in each of their 7 wins, (and 25 points in the loss to Houston), with QB Manning passing for 3 TDs in each of his last 6 home games, with just 3 INTs in total at home. Only Houston has thrown for more than 260 yards in Denver, and they are the only team to have thrown for more than 2 passing TDs in that game. In the running game, they ran for 94 yards against a tough Pittsburgh rush defence; 59 yards against Houston; 165 yards on Oakland; 225 yards on New Orleans; 133 yards on San Diego; 91 yards on Tampa Bay; 118 yards on Cleveland and 172 yards on Kansas. So their run game has complemented their passing game, and has been used effectively to break up their options on offence, so that they do not just pass on every down. Their rush defence has been exceptional, as they have not allowed more than 100 rushing yards in any of their home wins while Houston was the only one to rush for 152 yards. Baltimore went 4-4 on the road, losing 24-23 at Philly; beating Kansas 9-6; losing 43-13 at Houston; won 25-15 at Cleveland; won 13-10 at Pittsburgh; won 16-13 at San Diego; lost 31-28 at Washington and lost 23-17 in Cincinnati. They only once threw for more than 232 yards in these 8 road games, and that was against Washington, while they allowed 371 passing yards to Philly; 256 passing yards to Houston and 272 passing yards to Washington - with these 3 teams the only one's you would consider to have better than average QBs (note: Big Ben from Pittsburgh was injured when they played them). In the rushing game, they had 100+ yards in 6 of their 8 away games due to the inability of QB Flacco to get the passing game going, so the likes of RB Rice had to become a bigger factor in these games. Their rush defence allowed 129 yards to Philly; 214 yards to Kansas; 181 yards to Houston; 116 yards to Cleveland; 137 yards to Pittsbugh; 91 yards to San Diego,; 172 yards to Washington and 47 yards to Cincinnati who struggled to get any sort of offence going in the last few games. Also, Denver beat Baltimore 34-17 in Baltimore, with Manning throwing for 204 yards and 1 TD, while they also ran for 163 yards, while Flacco had 254 passing yards with 2 TDs and 1 INT, while they managed just 56 yards on the ground. If Manning manages his 3 TDs at home, and they run for 100+ yards, which they should given their form running the ball at home, and Baltimore is allowing 100+ yards on the road, then hard to see how Baltimore stays close to them. Flacco has his problems on the road, so Rice gets more touches running the ball, but he may fumble again like he did last week, and especially against a side that rarely allows opposing teams to run for more than 100 yards, then hard to see how Baltimore keeps this close. Denver in a blowout. Green Bay @ 2.30 pinnacle Green Bay -2.5 @ 2.80 centrebet Green Bay -9.5 @ 5.65 centrebet Green Bay are healthy, both on offence and defence, and are poised to continue their good form of late as they have won their last 5 games. They will rely once again on QB Rodgers to get their offence moving even though they run game has shown some life, with 100+ rushing yards in 5 of their last 6 games. Rodgers has thrown for 3+ TDs in 5 of his 8 road games against teams like Houston, St Louis, and Chicago with good secondary's. Defensively, they have allowed 1 passing TD in each of their last 5 games, and just 11 TDs in their 8 road games, while they have managed 7 INTs in their last 5 games, and 9 INTs in their 8 road games. Besides twice allowing 200+ yards to Minnesota, they managed to allow them to rush for 167 yards last week which was an improvement from previous meetings with them. They allowed 127 rushing yards in Seattle; 119 yards in Indy, 90 yards in Houston; 108 yards in St Louis; 54 yards in Arizona; 110 yards in Detroit and 147 yards to the NY Giants and 83 yards to Chicago, so take away the Minnesota games, and they have not been blitzed by any other run-first side. Now San Francisco will be another tough battle for them, but with Woodson back, they look much more solid stopping the run. San Francisco have Kaepernick at QB and he will use his legs, with RB Gore, to cause this Packers rush defence some problems. They have run for 120+ yards in 7 of their 8 home games but this has also been against some ordinary rush defences. Detroit (148 yards); Buffalo (311 yards); NY Giants (80 yards); Seattle (175 yards); St Louis (183 yards); Chicago (123 yards); Miami (155 yards) and Arizona (129 yards). Only Seattle, and Chicago to a lesser extent, have good rush defences, so while they should get some yards running on GB, doubt that they will get more than 150 yards to keep them in the game. Their passing game has seen 7 TDs in their last 5 games, but 4 of them were against New England when they were chasing the game and needed to pass rather than run more. Apart from that, Kaepernick has been good but not great, and up against an opportunistic secondary that was ranked 7th for INTs, and that was with several key players out, then he will need to rise to the occasion. On defence, their pass defence has been excellent and only St Louis, with 315 yards (and 2 TDs) has come to SF and passed for more than 230 yards. And their rush defence has been equally very good, only allowing NY Giants (149 yards); Seattle (136 yards) and St Louis (159 yards) to rush for more than 100 yards at home. If GB's running game can get some yards and not be reliant on the passing game, then Rodgers should have some more time to play with, otherwise SF will drop extra players in coverage. These two teams met in Week 1, where SF beat QB 30-22 in Green Bay, as GB had 303 yards (2 TD, 1 INT) while SF with Smith at QB, had 211 yards (2 TDs). GB ran for just 45 yards while SF had 186 yards. Given this, you would expect SF at home, to do even more damage. However, get the feeling that SF were much more prepared and ready for this game than GB was, as GB are a team that prefers to work their way into form during the season, so they peak when the playoffs arrive. Expect them to have a different view and be much more prepared for SF, and if they manage to minimise the yardage that SF gains from on the ground, then doubt that their inexperienced QB can get them moving, while GB have a top QB with an improving run game, and with their variety of options at WR, can see them causing SF some problems, much like the NY Giants did. Furthermore, GB is ranked 4th in sacks while SF are 14th, while SF are 24th in sacks allowed and GB is 31st. If SF can't get to Rodgers then he should have time to pick his targets while GB has Mathews, who had another two sacks last week and expect him to harass Kapernick all game Playoff Record: 3-1 (+2.55)

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Re: NFL: Divisional Round picks Seattle @ 2.23 pinnacle Seattle -2.5 @ 2.57 centrebet Seattle -9.5 @ 5.25 centrebet Seattle were impressive against Washington last week, as at first they did not know how to contain RG3 and Morris, but then made some adjustments after the first quarter and then dominated the rest of the game. They showed that they can win on the road, as they have won their last 3 road games in Chicago, Buffalo and Washington, with QB Wilson in very good form. He has thrown 18 TDs and just 2 INTs in his last 9 games, and has 6 TDs and no INTs in his last 4 road games. He is complemented by a run game that regularly ran for 100+ yards. On defence, they have only allowed Detroit and New England to pass for more than 260 yards while they have allowed just 5 TDs and got 9 INTs in their last 5 games. On the road they have allowed 12 TDs but also have 8 INTs, so they have been hard to beat, while their run game has been decent on the road. Atlanta have benefited from a soft schedule with just games against two playoff teams: Denver and Washington. They started the season off with 8 straight wins, but have won just 2 of their last 4 games, yet they have only scored 24+ points in 3 of their 8 home games, which is not that good considering the calibre of opponents. Their QB Ryan has only 4 times thrown for more than 250 yards in these 8 home games with 11 TDs and 9 INTs, though 8 of these came against Oakland and Arizona. Their run game has had between 120 and 150 rushing yards in 5 of these 8 home games, but once again, the defences they have played against have not been that good. The only good defence they played against was Denve who they beat 27-21 at home in Week 2, as Ryan had 219 yards and 2 TDs while they ran for just 67 yards, but allowed 241 yards and 1 TD (and got 3 INTs) while allowing 118 yards. They have allowed 100+ yards in 5 of their 8 home games, and with Seattle having a very good run game, headed by Lynch and Wilson, then expect them to give up some yards here. Seattle has the defence to stop the Atlanta passing and running game, but not too confident in Atlanta being able to stop the Seattle running game, which should also them open up for Wilson to make some passes. New England -9.5 @ 1.99 pinnacle New England -16.5 @ 3.05 centrebet New England -23.5 @ 5.80 centrebet NE's QB Brady has the experience and nous to once again win another playoff game against a Houston side that may be still celebrating their first playoff win. Brady has managed to pass for 250+ yards in 10 of his last 11 games, and in 7 of his 8 home games this season, while he has at least 2 TDs in 5 of his last 6 home games. Their running game has a very good counterpart to their passing game, as they have ran for 110+ yards in 6 of their 8 home games. On defence, they have improved, allowing less than 250 passing yards in their last 3 home games against Houston, San Francisco and Miami. However their rush defence has allowed 100+ yards in 6 of their 8 home games, so they will have their work cut out stopping the Houston run game. Houston will rely on running the ball as they have run for 100+ yards in each of their 8 road games, while they have managed just 9 TDs and 8 INTs on the road as Schaub has passed for more than 250 yards just 4 times in these 8 games, and against a QB like Brady, he will need to be on top of his game to keep Houston close to them. On defence, they have been shown up by top quality QBs as Green Bay's QB Rodgers threw for 6 TDs against them while Brady threw 4 TDs. They have only allowed 3 teams to run for more than 100 yards on them, but one of them was New England. New England threw for 296 yards as Brady had 4 TDs and 1 INT while they ran for another 130 yards. Houston had 247 passing yards and an INT while they ran for 100 yards, as NE won 42-14. Expect New England to use the same plan to spread this Houston defence all over the place, while if they stifle the Houston run game again, then they do not have the QB who can move the ball as is required.

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Re: NFL: Divisional Round picks Totally agree with the Broncos pick. Manning did a gread job since taken over the Broncos and lead them with 4600 yards, 37 touchdowns and a 105.8 passer rating. Furthermore he has solid wide receivers featuring Thomas and Decker (both over 1000 yards). The running game seems to get better, since McGahee was placed on IR. Although the offense has that much of attention the Defense did a well job as well. With von Miller and Elvis Dumerville two really dominant defensive players and the backfield is with Bailey and Harris also pretty solid. The Ravens of course have a good team too, but the defense struggled against Andrew Luck and the young Colts offense. Although especially the RedZone Defense was pretty good, they gave up over 400 offensive yards, which is way too much and Peyton Manning should be able to make use of this. Additionally, the Ravens team is not as the Ravens Team of 2006 e.g. They always played defense first and were one the best defensive teams. But this Ravens defense is a defense in decline. They are #20 against the run and #17 against the pass and #17 in total defense. Moreover top CB Ladarius Webb is out for the season. Despite the recovery of Terrell Suggs and Ray Lewis, they played an average defense. Additionally, the Ravens come of a very emotional game - Ray Lewis last home game. They played 87 snaps in a hard-fought game while Denver had the first round bye. The Broncos are red-hot and on a winning streak of 11 games (7-1 at home). Peyton Manning is 9-0 (including 2-0 in the playoffs) in the last 9 games against Baltimore. The Ravens are well-respected, but at Mile High, Denver? No way - take the Broncos and lay the points. Denver Broncos -9.5 @ 2 Pinnacle 4/10 Units

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Re: NFL: Divisional Round picks 4pts Denver vs Baltimore - Under 46pts 1.95 Ladbrokes The outcome of this match is likely to come down to whether the Ravens offense can fire on the road against a very tough defence. If they can then they could well win this match but that remains to be seen. I think this will be a real tough game where the defences are on top. This is playoff football. It’s all on the line for both sides and that will inspire the best of both defences, defences which are among the best in the league anyway so I like the look of under 46pts here. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/baltimore--denver-betting-expect-these-two-top-defences-to-be-on-top-in-divisional-round-match 4pts Green Bay to beat San Francisco 27/20 Ladbrokes San Francisco won at Lambeau Field in the opening week of the season but I think the Packers can gain their revenge here. They have so many options on offense and Aaron Rodgers can get the ball away quickly enough that the San Francisco pass rush isn’t as effective as it would like to be. Although the Packers defence does give up yards I think it can get enough pressure on Kaepernick to force some mistakes and at odds against the Packers look the value to me. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/green-bay--san-francisco-betting-green-bay-can-take-a-step-closer-to-another-superbowl

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Re: NFL: Divisional Round picks Atlanta -3 @2.05 with bet365 Can't see past the Falcons in this one. Seattle has played well and are the darlings of the NFL, but lost in their win streak is some luck. Had RGIII been 60% the Redskins win that game going away. The Seahawks have been slow starters all season, they have struggled early in many games and Russell Wilson at times can go a 2 quarters without producing anything. The Falcons will have had a week to prepare and they will be eager to show they're ready for the post season unlike previous seasons. At home Atlanta have been known to get off to great starts like they did vs Denver, NO, and NYG. Looking at Seattle's matches this season they've played few teams that can attack their secondary like Atlanta can, and the Falcon defense has improved from previous seasons, knowing to be more aggressive and physical. I can really see the Falcons jumping to a quick two score lead and keeping Seattle from getting back into the game.

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Re: NFL: Divisional Round picks Knowshon Moreno total rushing yards - OVER 74.5 - 4pts @ 1.91 Hills Hills look out of line here when you look at 83.5 and 84.5 at Stan James and Ladbrokes respectively. Moreno averaged 5.4ypc when amassing 118yds and a TD against the Ravens just a month ago, and with the promise of inclement weather and the heavy likelihood of Denver being 'in the game' throughout, the only way I see Moreno not covering this line is through an injury.

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Re: NFL: Divisional Round picks

Knowshon Moreno total rushing yards - OVER 74.5 - 4pts @ 1.91 Hills the only way I see Moreno not covering this line is through an injury.
:eyes 2 bets for the NFC game... Green Bay (m/l) 5pts @ 2.45 Bet365 Just think that the Pack represent decent value in this game - they have the pass rush to cause Kaepernick problems in what after all is his first post-season game, and they have the offense to cause any defense problems, even this much vaunted 9ers one. I really would just about favour the visitors in this one, ever so slightly, so almost 6/4 available for them is too good to turn down. Frank Gore - Anytime TD - 3pts @ 2.10 Bwin An amazing price I think, I'm sure he scores a TD more than 50% of the time, and other firms have him marked up as short as 2/5 (Paddy) and 1/2 (Boyle), so odds-against 11/10 is, again, just too big to turn down for me.
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Re: NFL: Divisional Round picks 4pts Seattle to beat Atlanta 13/10 Paddy Power The battle between the Seahawks secondary and the Falcons receivers will be fascinating in this match and whoever wins that battle may well win the match. However the Seahawks have the x-factor of Marshawn Lynch’s running game which is seemingly unstoppable right now and that run game can see the Seahawks into the Championship game in my eyes. Atlanta’s soft schedule could really work against them here and I’m happy to take Seattle at odds against. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/seattle--atlanta-betting-seattle-can-win-on-the-road-for-the-second-week-running 4pts Houston (+9.5) to beat New England 19/20 BetVictor I’m not sure whether Houston will win this match but with everything on the line I’m sure they will make it a lot closer than the regular season meeting between these two. The Texans recovered their defensive abilities last week and they’ll need them all here but if this does turn into a shootout then they’ve shown at times that they can mix it in that department. If push came to shove I’d pick New England to win but I don’t think they’ll win by 10pts. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/houston--new-england-betting-houston-can-stay-a-lot-closer-to-new-england-than-they-did-in-regular-season

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Re: NFL: Divisional Round picks Houston @ New England, over 48.5, @1.95, 2/10 points This 2 teams went clearly over in week 14. Houston has a good defense, but I don't think they can stop Brady. He threw for 5 TDs in week 14 and now with Gronkowski they will surely score. If Houston wants to win they´ll need to put up points. Foster is playing great football and with the help of Andre Johnson they can add some TDs. Belichik has said that they won´t play conservatively and I think the line should be a couple of points higher. NFL 2012: 12-5, +13.93

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Re: NFL: Divisional Round picks

Denver -9.5 @ 1.97 :( Denver -16.5 @ 2.98 :( Denver -23.5 @ 5.55 :( Got off to a great start and then allowed 2 TDs. The most they led by was 7 points but could not shake them off. Massive bomb at the end to push it to OT where Baltimore hit a field goal Green Bay @ 2.30 :( Green Bay -2.5 @ 2.80 :( Green Bay -9.5 @ 5.65 :( Also got off to a great start but then Kaepernick played the game of his life Seattle @ 2.23 :( Seattle -2.5 @ 2.57 :( Seattle -9.5 @ 5.25 :( Took the lead with less than a minute to go only to be done by a field goal at the end New England -9.5 @ 1.99 :D New England -16.5 @ 3.05 :( New England -23.5 @ 5.80 :( Led by 25 points and then game up 2 TDs in the 4th quarter to give Houston a sniff.
Playoff Record: 4-12 (-7.46)
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