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CzechPunter

January 7 - January 13

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Re: January 7 - January 13 CzechPunter, first of all, well done every time! I was looking also for some underdogs and I think Nieminen and Istomin have a good chance of winning their matches or covering the handicap, what do you think of these matches? And why do you prefer the set handicap over the game handicap?

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Re: January 7 - January 13 WTA Sydney International - Roberta Vinci to beat Agnieszka Radwanska @ 4.00 >Betfair I think now might be a good time to go against Radwanska. She's had plenty of game time ahead of the Australian Open, winning the title in Auckland last week and beating Date-Krumm in her first match in this tournament. She has said that her goals this season are to win a Grand Slam and to get to the top of the WTA rankings, and I'm sure she will be happy with her form going into next week even if she doesn't win this match against Vinci. Something else to consider is the h2h - although it's in Radwanska's favour, it's deceptive as most of the matches were on clay. On hard courts, both players have won one match each, with Vinci winning the last time they met at the US Open last year. I watched that match, and Radwanska was soundly beaten, so I see no reason why Vinci can't beat Radwanska again this time out.

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Re: January 7 - January 13

CzechPunter, first of all, well done every time! I was looking also for some underdogs and I think Nieminen and Istomin have a good chance of winning their matches or covering the handicap, what do you think of these matches? And why do you prefer the set handicap over the game handicap?
1) No idea about Nieminen. I agree with Istomin looking value at 2.20+, but I am on the outright already, so I do not want to back him again. 2) It depends on the match, these three look better from the set handicap perspective imo. Monfils often throws sets away and then comes back strongly, he is just that kind of guy. Seppi can get into some form of dominance if he is on and the line is just 3.5 games, which might easily get covered by him even if he loses a set (more likely than the other way around here I would say). And Kerber is the same as Monfils, when she is not hitting the soft spots she can lose sets out of nowhere and then come back strongly.

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Re: January 7 - January 13 WTA Sydney International - Dominika Cibulkova to beat Sara Errani @ 3.00 >Betfair Errani is another player who might have one eye on the Australian Open, and if she's not fully focussed she could run into trouble against Cibulkova. They've met plenty of times in the past, and Cibulkova holds the upper hand in the h2h. I think the reason for this is that Errani struggles to deal with Cibulkova's powerful game - when she's in good form she can be a match for anyone. She sometimes struggles to be consistent, but she's done well at this tournament in the past, and I like her chances of continuing this week.

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Re: January 7 - January 13 2/10 Giraldo to beat Malisse @ 1.74 SBO l like Giraldo in this stadium of this tournament. Malisse is overrated and over the top. And i think he must grow in the season and is not on his best here this weeks. Little stake on Giraldo here.

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Re: January 7 - January 13 4/10 James Blake to beat Copil @ 1.55 Nordicbet We all know that Blake is a good player on hardcourt. In the previous years we saw that Copil is struggling on this service. Also, Blake is not a youngster but i think with his quality he must win here.

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Re: January 7 - January 13 Lacko to beat Bellucci @ 2.12 Betfair Lacko is currently 48th player on ATP list. On hard court he has record of 106 wins and 68 losses. On the other hand, Bellucci is 32nd player on the ATP list. He has record of 59 wins and 60 losses playing on hard court. I checked the odds and there is something fishy. When I see early mentioned stats, it is pretty clear that Lacko should be favorite in this match. He hass better score on hard courts and if we check his results in past weeks it is clear that his form is very good.Bellucci is better ranked player than Lacko but that isn´t important for me. According to head to head stats, Lacko and Belluci played only once. That was in 2012 in New Haven. Lacko was better, he won 2-1 in sets. My final thought, Lacko is, at the moment, better player and if he continues with his good form he will win in this match.

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Re: January 7 - January 13 WTA Sydney International - Svetlana Kuznetsova to beat Angelique Kerber @ 3.00 Betfair Kuznetsova made a slow start to the season, losing to Bertens in Auckland when she probably thought that she would get a win. She came through qualifying to get into the main draw here, and has been getting better with each match. I agree with CzechPunter in that I think she can continue this burst of good form, and she faces an opponent in Kerber who she beat in their only previous meeting. Kerber doesn't seem to have got into any sort of rhythm so far this season, and that doesn't bode well for her against a player in Kuznetsova who appears to have some momentum behind her and who has had success in this tournament previously.

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Re: January 7 - January 13 I'm heading to the Apia Tournament tonight and watching Li v Keys. I haven't seen Keys play yet, is she got anything to trouble Li? I'm looking at Keys +4.5 @ 1.83 with Bet365.

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Re: January 7 - January 13 1/10 Kohlschreiber to win ATP Auckland @ 7.00 William Hill Only Ferrer can beat this Kohlschreiber in the final i quess, but i like this odds. I think Kohlschreiber have more chance than the bookies will say here. Next round against Malisse and than probably Querrey in the semi's.

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Re: January 7 - January 13 2/10 Benneteau to beat Harrison @ 1.94 Pinnacle I like the Frenchmen here. Playing well, had a easily match last night. Also he was not in best form the last months, but Harrison is a overrated player in my eyes. Okay, he beat Isner last night, but Isner was nog 100% fit.

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Re: January 7 - January 13

Lacko to beat Bellucci @ 2.12 Betfair Lacko is currently 48th player on ATP list. On hard court he has record of 106 wins and 68 losses. On the other hand, Bellucci is 32nd player on the ATP list. He has record of 59 wins and 60 losses playing on hard court. I checked the odds and there is something fishy. When I see early mentioned stats, it is pretty clear that Lacko should be favorite in this match. He hass better score on hard courts and if we check his results in past weeks it is clear that his form is very good.Bellucci is better ranked player than Lacko but that isn´t important for me. According to head to head stats, Lacko and Belluci played only once. That was in 2012 in New Haven. Lacko was better, he won 2-1 in sets. My final thought, Lacko is, at the moment, better player and if he continues with his good form he will win in this match.
:cigar

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Re: January 7 - January 13

2/10 Benneteau to beat Harrison @ 1.94 Pinnacle I like the Frenchmen here. Playing well, had a easily match last night. Also he was not in best form the last months, but Harrison is a overrated player in my eyes. Okay, he beat Isner last night, but Isner was nog 100% fit.
I do not think benneteau played tonight with Stepanek. Stepanek retired. Am I right?

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Re: January 7 - January 13 Julien Benneteau vs Ryan Harrison. Over 22.5 games. 1.85 @ Pinnacle Hard to pick a clear winner in this match. I would definitely have Julien Benneteau as the favourite in this match. However he hasn´t shown anything this year as well as the end of the season. The same goes for the American Ryan Harrison. While the Frenchman had lost to Nieminen and dropped a set against Andujar, the match against Stepanek was a good opportunity for him to gain some momentum and rhythm in preparation for the Aussie open. Unfortunately for him Stepanek withdrew with an injury. A similar situation occurred for Ryan Harrison. Lost to Robredo, good win over Kavcic, walkover against Bautista and a win over Isner. The tall American wasn't a shadow of himself due to a knee injury he also carried during the Hopman Cup. However Harrison did play well against Isner and deserves more credits for the win than the fact that Isner was injured. Both players aren't very big servers, but are definitely talented and able enough to keep their fair share of games being on a surface they both like. Benneteau will look to push Harrison around the court, but definitely considering the form the Frenchman is in, Harrison has enough court coverage to keep himself in the game and push Benneteau to the limit. Forcing Benneteau to keep making shots and that will lead to a decent amount of unforced errors by the, at times, erratic Frenchman. Love the over here.

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Re: January 7 - January 13 Xavier Malisse vs Philipp Kohlschreiber. Over 22.5 games. 1.96 @ Pinnacle. I really like Malisse in this match-up. I was contemplating taking the outright or the handicap. But I don't think it's value taking the Belgian at these odds on the Money Line. And the over has more value than the low odds on +3.5. In the end I think Kohlschreiber will scrap out the win. But the over looks good. Kohlschreiber has had a hard time finding form en route to the Aussie Open. I didn't think he was that bad against Monfils but he played even more erratic than the Frenchman who is famous for his inconsistency, resulting in a loss. After that he also struggled against Falla, an opponent he should be able to easily dismantle if he's in a normal form. Malisse is all about his mental state of mind. When he's feeling good, you can see it on the court. But he's easily distracted and is often fighting against himself. This is why he hasn't reached his full potential during his career. At the moment however, Malisse is on a nice run beating both Klizan and Giraldo, two players around or above his level. Having checked out the players form, the match-up also appeals to me when taking the overs. Both players quite like this surface and are well able to hold serve, Malisse in my eyes having the better serve in this match up. Kohlschreiber will look to play crafty, work the angles and more or less grind the win out. However I expect Malisse to be the aggressor in the match with punchy groundstrokes. This match will be decided on who makes the least unforced errors. I think Malisse can continue his good form and perhaps nick a set of Kohlschreiber. But I do expect the German to prevail in the end. Overs all the way!

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Re: January 7 - January 13

Yes' date=' he retired before the match with back problems. Apparently, he might not be ready for the Australian Open.[/quote'] Exactly and I wrote that for Alovenac to reconsider the arguments!

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Re: January 7 - January 13

Yes' date=' he retired before the match with back problems. Apparently, he might not be ready for the Australian Open.[/quote'] Actually, it was not BEFORE the match. Step retired during 1st game. Julien cashed at one ball bookies.

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Re: January 7 - January 13 Tommy Haas vs Gaël Monfils. Over 22,5 games. 1.92 @ Pinnacle This should be an absolute cracker. Two enjoyable players on court that should make the match go to length. On the one hand we have Tommy Haas. The German had time to get into rhythm at the Hopman Cup. He showed that aswell in the match against Igor Sijsling. Where the Dutchman relies on his strong serve, it was Haas who was impeccable on return and broke him three times bringing in the 64 63. On the other hand we have our erratic Gaël Monfils. Nice shotmaker that could get more out of his game if he would dictate more. He himself opts to play too defensive with some brilliant countershots at times. His form is erratic as always having a decent win over Kohlschreiber. He moved on to lose to Daniel Brands, who was not playing badly, but a player like Monfils should be able to beat him easily if he plays his game. In Auckland, again, he unneededly gave away a set to Benjamin Becker. Ultimately this match up screams the over. Haas will have to dominate the whole match if he wants to win and Monfils will have to grind out and work the court if he wants to pull this one out of the bag. Anyway I can easily see an open match with atleast 2 close sets, but to be honest I'm expecting a 3 match game here.

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Re: January 7 - January 13 Back Kenny de Schepper to beat Steve Johnson for a 3/10 stake at 1.77 with Pinnacle Johnson played an epic match yesterday, winning 17-15 in the decider - and the conditions were not easy to handle apparently, so I can see him struggling today against someone more competent like Kenny de Schepper, who had no problems whatsoever yesterday and should know how to deal with the American. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/de-schepper-vs-johnson-betting-kenny-de-schepper-to-get-through-to-the-next-round Back Lukas Lacko to beat David Ferrer for a 1/10 stake at 8.88 with Pinnacle Back L.Lacko/D.Ferrer - Over 19.5 games for a 2/10 stake at 1.93 with Pinnacle There is something wrong with Ferrer right now, is not there? He was not at his best in Doha, but I thought that it was just him needing some time. However, he did struggle against Lu in the first round for some reason, so this is worth a shot I would say. Lacko has been in fine form despite the tough conditions, so he should be able to stay with Ferrer for quite some time. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/lacko-vs-ferrer-betting-lukas-lacko-can-stay-with-david-ferrer-for-a-while-in-auckland

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Re: January 7 - January 13 Back Cibulkova to beat Kerber @2.63 StanJames. Surprised Kerber is such a strong favourite in her semi-final vs Cibulkova as the Slovak holds a 2-0 lead in H-2-H including one on hard court(Austrailian Open last year.)

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Re: January 7 - January 13 Malisse - Kohlschreiber over 22,5 @2,0 unibet 4/10 Match between two solid servers where I don't expect many breaks and even break points. Those are the first matches for both of them, so I think that they will play without 'choke' and saving energy for AO. After awful end of 2012., Xman played some good tennis here in Auckland and it looks like that he likes the surface, especialy for hard services (yesterday vs Giraldo gave 0 bp). On the other hand, German lost last week in Doha vs Monfils in 3 sets, and yesterday he won against Falla again in 3sets. Good serves, hard shots from baseline, not many break points and maybe all 3 sets...nice over IMO

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Re: January 7 - January 13 Anderson v Istomin Over 23,5 @ 1.95 Pinnacle Anderson and Istomin have a great service. Both players base their game on the first excellent service. This surface is so hard and expect a large number of short points (aces and winers). Anderson had one poor service game, but saved all 3 break points against Feliciano Lopez. The latter seems to be in not best form recently so not much to read from that performance of Anderson. In my opinion, match will be very egal with very few chances for a break. I think that good option for betting in this match is over. I think it's possible to see 3 sets in this match, but the 24 games we can see also in two sets.

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Re: January 7 - January 13 Luksika KumKhum to beat Jose Martinez Maria WTA Aussie Open Qualifer @2.55 Bwin(7/10) Ok.For the life of me I cannot understand how Kumkhum is underdog in this match & basically bookies must have compiled odds based on rankings alone.Kumkhum is only 19 years old but making a name for herself on the Hard courts.She has got some quality wins over decent opponents Chang,Binerova & recently beat Keys 6-4 6-3 at Auckland.Martinez is out of form & has lost her last 8 of 11 games on the hard courts.I see all the advantages towards KumKhum in this game & also a very good price.7pts win

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Re: January 7 - January 13 Lauren Davis to beat Sloane Stephens WTA Hobart @4.5 Sporting Bet(4/10) I just cannot ignore the price of Davis in this one.The H2H reads a 1-0 win for LD at the Bayamon ITF Hard court 6-3 4-6 6-4 in 2010.Davis is playing well & destroyed Cirstea in the last round 6-1 6-3.Stephens is no mug on hard courts & give anyone in the world a tough game.You can see in her last 4 wins out of 5 she has beaten Cibulkova, Avidsson,Robson & Halep.Its gonna be a close game no doubt,but bookies are underestimating Davis chances here.Price has drifted on Davis from 3.5 out to 4.5 in certain Bookies.Was gonna have 5-6 pts win,but will stay with 4pts win on Davis

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Re: January 7 - January 13 I like the look of a few matches tomorrow morning in both the ATP and WTA. I sometimes think the further a tournament progresses, the more opportunities there are. All the players are in form to some degree as they have normally won a couple of matches at least to get to this stage, but that doesn't always seem to me to be reflected in some of the odds. Here are my thoughts and what I'm taking. ATP Sydney International - Denis Istomin to beat Kevin Anderson @ 2.60 >Betfair I can see this being a very close match. Both players are good on serve, but I think Istomin is capable of nicking this. He's already had one tight match in this tournament, beating home player Duckworth in three sets. He then beat Verdasco in the next round in straight sets, and he looks to be in good shape now. His run in Brisbane should have given him plenty of confidence heading into this week, and he might even think that he has a chance of winning the title. I like Anderson as a player, and his route to this round has been quite similar to Istomin's, but I just think this is a coin toss so I'm going with Istomin. WTA Sydney International - Dominika Cibulkova to beat Angelique Kerber @ 2.60 Betfair Cibulkova really looks to have found some form in this tournament, beating Errani in the last round in pretty ruthless fashion. I backed her against Errani, and for a lot of the same reasons I think she is worth backing against Kerber. She leads the h2h, including a win in similar conditions at the Australian Open a couple of years ago. There's little doubt that Kerber has improved since then, but even so I think Cibulkova will push her all the way in this match. WTA Hobart International - Lauren Davis to beat Sloane Stephens @ 4.60 >Betfair I backed Davis in her last match against Cirstea, and I see no reason not to back her in this match. She has played Stephens before and beaten her, and even though Stephens has been playing really well recently, I don't think she should be such a strong favourite against a similarly talented young player like Davis. There's a lot of hype about Stephens at the moment, with Serena Williams having good things to say, and I think that's the reason for this price. Ultimately though, she remains a player with potential, not a seasoned pro who has shown that she can consistently win when she's expected to. I'm happy to go against her in this match. ATP Sydney International - Marcel Granollers to beat Andreas Seppi @ 2.24 >Betfair Granollers leads the h2h, and also beat Seppi in their only previous meeting on hard. This is his first tournament of the season, and he has done well so far. He beat home player Ebden in the first round, in what was always likely to be a difficult match, and then beat Fognini in his second match. He is an adept player on hard, and his form seems to be building nicely. Seppi, on the other hand, had a less than convincing start to his season, losing all the matches he played in the Hopman Cup. As he is one of the top seeds, he has only played one match so far, and whilst he deserves some credit for getting past home player Millman, he hasn't had the chance to get any sort of momentum going and so I question his status as favourite in this match.

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Re: January 7 - January 13

Malisse - Kohlschreiber over 22,5 @2,0 unibet 4/10 Match between two solid servers where I don't expect many breaks and even break points. Those are the first matches for both of them, so I think that they will play without 'choke' and saving energy for AO. After awful end of 2012., Xman played some good tennis here in Auckland and it looks like that he likes the surface, especialy for hard services (yesterday vs Giraldo gave 0 bp). On the other hand, German lost last week in Doha vs Monfils in 3 sets, and yesterday he won against Falla again in 3sets. Good serves, hard shots from baseline, not many break points and maybe all 3 sets...nice over IMO
7-6 6-4, huh :cigar

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