valuepunter Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 Happy New Year folks! Let's try and start it off right. LA Clippers @ Denver Nuggets LA Clippers ML @ 2.06 - 2 units The Clippers are currently on a franchise record 17 win streak and have just produced a 16-0 December, a perfect month for only the 3rd time in NBA history. The Clippers will obviously want to stretch this streak out for as long as possible, but with a tough lineup of games coming up (@Nuggets, @Warriors, Lakers, Warriors), they know they'll have to work their nuts off for it, and when facing a week like that while trying to extend a streak you have to think they'll come out strong in the first game. They're making history with the longest NBA streak in 4 years, and it's hard to quantify the motivation and confidence that gives. The Clippers beat Denver just a week ago 112-100 Clippers have won by 12 or more in 11 of their 17 win streak Their defense allowed 100 or more only 3 times in those 17 wins Clippers have won the last 2 in a row @ Denver Clippers have won the last 3 in a row against Denver overall I think Denver's home advantage is being overestimated here. They were +6.5 when they visited LA last week (which they didn't cover), and are now at -1 at home. They are 9-1 at home which is a powerful record, but I would've still expected the Clippers to be around -3 here with no real squad differences since the last game. It will be a very enjoyable game to watch and should be close, but I expect the Clippers defense and their stronger bench to make the difference here and I'll happily take the moneyline at over 2. Atlanta Hawks @ NO Hornets Hawks ML @ 1.84 - 2 units Yippee-kay-ay this is a nice price on Betfair. The Hawks are 19-10 this season and the Hornets are 7-23. Hawks are 8-5 Away, and the Hornets are 3-12 at home. Hawks average 98 PPG, Hornets average 91.6 (2nd worst in NBA). Hawks allow 94.2PPG when playing away, and 95.9 overall. Hornets allow 94.9PPG at home but 97.5 overall. TeamRankings give the Hawks -2 a 54.6% likelihood. Numberfire give the -3 a 58.5% likelihood. IMO the price is an overreaction to the return of Gordon for the Hornets, he came back and had a cracking game against the Bobcats on Saturday scoring 24 points in 25 minutes, but Charlotte does have the 2nd worst defense in the NBA right now and the Hornets still only scraped a 3 point victory, and to me that speaks volumes. I expect the Hawks to put up over 100 points here, as they have in 6 of their last 10 games, including 3 of 4 away games, and their last 4 games in a row. Meanwhile the Hornets have only put up 100 points once in their last 10 games. NBA record: 4W-7L-1P -2.26 units Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valuepunter Posted January 1, 2013 Author Share Posted January 1, 2013 Re: NBA: 1st Jan Dallas Mavericks @ Washington Wizards Dallas Mavericks -3.5 @ 1.93 - 1 unit Both teams are on horrific runs, both winning just 1 of their last 10, but the Mavericks have had the toughest competition. Dallas have just got back their MVP Nowitzki after being out for the season after knee surgery, and although he's been disappointing in his first 3 games back you have to look at the opposition in those games - Thunder, Nuggets and Spurs. Dallas were never expected to get much out of these games, going into them as +10.5, +3 and +6 dogs, respectively. But now we get to see Nowitzki in action against a team they're expected to beat, and if there was ever a stage to show your talents after coming back from injury this is it. Dallas are averaging 98.3 PPG, even without Nowitzki. The Wizards are averaging 88.8, worst in the NBA. Wizards current leading scorer Crawford came off on saturday with an ankle injury. He will play but may not be 100%. Dallas beat the Wizards 107-101 at home in November. Mavs are 12-19, Wizards 4-24 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valuepunter Posted January 1, 2013 Author Share Posted January 1, 2013 Re: NBA: 1st Jan Atlanta Hawks @ NO Hornets Over 186.5 @ 1.91 - 1 unit Hadn't noticed the line was so low on this, and seeing as I predicted earlier that the Hawks will go over 100 in this game I'll stick to my guns and take the overs here. Last 10 Hawks games: 7 out of 10 went over Last 10 Hornets Games: 6 out of 10 went over And if we look at how many games went over 185 for each of these teams: Hawks: 8 of last 10 games went over 185 Hornets: 7 of last 10 games went over 185 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valuepunter Posted January 1, 2013 Author Share Posted January 1, 2013 Re: NBA: 1st Jan Atlanta Hawks @ NO Hornets Over 186.5 @ 1.91 - 1 unit Correction: Over 185 @ 1.91 - 1 unit Was going to take this at 186.5 but got over 185 @ 1.91 with Paddy Power Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valuepunter Posted January 2, 2013 Author Share Posted January 2, 2013 Re: NBA: 1st Jan LA Clippers @ Denver Nuggets LA Clippers ML @ 2.06 - 2 units :eyes Denver played well but the Clippers missed a boatload of 3s, still think this was value. This made the difference between profit and loss on the day. Atlanta Hawks @ NO Hornets Hawks ML @ 1.84 - 2 units :nana Over 185 @ 1.91 - 1 unit :eyes Ended with 181. Hawks couldn't quite reach 100 as predicted, if they did this would've won. Dallas Mavericks @ Washington Wizards Dallas Mavericks -3.5 @ 1.93 - 1 unit :nana On the day: 2W-2L -0.39 units NBA record: 6W-9L-1P -2.65 units Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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